Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Estimating Autoantibody Signatures To Detect Autoimmune Disease Patient Subsets, Zhenke Wu, Livia Casciola-Rosen, Ami A. Shah, Antony Rosen, Scott L. Zeger

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Autoimmune diseases are characterized by highly specific immune responses against molecules in self-tissues. Different autoimmune diseases are characterized by distinct immune responses, making autoantibodies useful for diagnosis and prediction. In many diseases, the targets of autoantibodies are incompletely defined. Although the technologies for autoantibody discovery have advanced dramatically over the past decade, each of these techniques generates hundreds of possibilities, which are onerous and expensive to validate. We set out to establish a method to greatly simplify autoantibody discovery, using a pre-filtering step to define subgroups with similar specificities based on migration of labeled, immunoprecipitated proteins on sodium dodecyl sulfate …

Network Exploration Of Correlated Multivariate Protein Data For Alzheimer's Disease Association, Matthew J. Lane

Theses

Alzheimer Disease (AD) is difficult to diagnose by using genetic testing or other traditional methods. Unlike diseases with simple genetic risk components, there exists no single marker determining as to whether someone will develop AD. Furthermore, AD is highly heterogeneous and different subgroups of individuals develop the disease due to differing factors. Traditional diagnostic methods using perceivable cognitive deficiencies are often too little too late due to the brain having suffered damage from decades of disease progression. In order to observe AD at early stages prior to the observation of cognitive deficiencies, biomarkers with greater accuracy are required. By using …

Optimal Experimental Design To Characterize A Wave Source Using Dosimeter Measurements, Renee L. Gooding

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

When modeling physical phenomena we want to solve the inverse problem by estimating the parameters that characterize the source model that we are interested in. In this thesis, we focus on the optimal placement of a finite number of individual sensors, called dosimeters, in two and three dimensions with a time dependent Gaussian wave source. Using a computational model along with experimental data, we design an iterative process to determine the optimal placement of an additional sensor such that the noise in the measurements has a minimal effect on the parameter estimation. First, we estimate the parameters that characterize the …

Deterministic And Probabilistic Methods For Seismic Source Inversion, Juan Pablo Madrigal Cianci

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

The national Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) reports an occurrence of about 13,000 earthquakes every year, spanning different values on the Richter scale from very mild (2) to "giant earthquakes'' (8 and above). Being able to study these earthquakes provides useful information for a wide range of applications in geophysics. In the present work we study the characteristics of an earthquake by performing seismic source inversion; a mathematical problem that, given some recorded data, produces a set of parameters that when used as input in a mathematical model for the earthquake generates synthetic data that closely resembles the measured data. There …

Cancer Modeling: From Optimal Cell Renewal To Immunotherapy, Cesar L. Alvarado

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

Cancer is a disease caused by mutations in normal cells. According to the National Cancer Institute, in 2016, an estimated 1.6 million people were diagnosed and approximately 0.5 million people died from the disease in the United States. There are many factors that shape cancer at the cellular and organismal level, including genetic, immunological, and environmental components. In this thesis, we show how mathematical modeling can be used to provide insight into some of the key mechanisms underlying cancer dynamics. First, we use mathematical modeling to investigate optimal homeostatic cell renewal in tissues such as the small intestine with an …

Modeling Trait Evolutionary Processes With More Than One Gene, Huan Jiang

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

Phylogenetic comparative methods have been used to test evolutionary signals through trait evolutionary processes. Traditionally, biologists use one phylogenetic tree as a tool to handle dependent data for the traits of interest and hence utilize one gene only. However, it is more informative if the evolutionary processes of a trait are presented by phylogenetic trees reconstructed by the DNA alignments from more than one gene. In this work, we explain and develop two methods involving modeling the trait evolutionary processes: (a) two gene trees via the Brownian motion (BM) model; and (b) two gene trees via the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) model. …

A General Approach For Predicting The Behavior Of The Supreme Court Of The United States, Daniel Katz

All Faculty Scholarship

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time-evolving random forest classifier that leverages unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve …

Positive Affect Predicts Cerebral Glucose Metabolism In Late Middle-Aged Adults., Christopher Nicholas, Siobhan M Hoscheidt, Lindsay R Clark, Annie M Racine, Sara E Berman, Rebecca L Koscik, N Maritza Dowling, Sanjay Asthana, Bradley T Christian, Mark A Sager, Sterling C Johnson

GW Biostatistics Center

Positive affect is associated with a number of health benefits; however, few studies have examined the relationship between positive affect and cerebral glucose metabolism, a key energy source for neuronal function and a possible index of brain health. We sought to determine if positive affect was associated with cerebral glucose metabolism in late middle-aged adults (n = 133). Participants completed the positive affect subscale of the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale at two time points over a two-year period and underwent 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography scanning. After controlling for age, sex, perceived health status, depressive symptoms, anti-depressant use, family …

Identification Of Prognostic Genes And Gene Sets For Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Using Bi-Level Selection Methods, Suyan Tian, Chi Wang, Howard H. Chang, Jianguo Sun

Biostatistics Faculty Publications

In contrast to feature selection and gene set analysis, bi-level selection is a process of selecting not only important gene sets but also important genes within those gene sets. Depending on the order of selections, a bi-level selection method can be classified into three categories – forward selection, which first selects relevant gene sets followed by the selection of relevant individual genes; backward selection which takes the reversed order; and simultaneous selection, which performs the two tasks simultaneously usually with the aids of a penalized regression model. To test the existence of subtype-specific prognostic genes for non-small cell lung cancer …

Robustness Of The Within- And Between-Series Estimators To Non-Normal Multiple-Baseline Studies: A Monte Carlo Study, Seang-Hwane Joo

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In single-case research, multiple-baseline (MB) design is the most widely used design in practical settings. It provides the opportunity to estimate the treatment effect based on not only within-series comparisons of treatment phase to baseline phase observations, but also time-specific between-series comparisons of observations from those that have started treatment to those that are still in the baseline. In MB studies, the average treatment effect and the variation of these effects across multiple participants can be estimated using various statistical modeling methods. Recently, two types of statistical modeling methods were proposed for analyzing MB studies: a) within-series model and b) …

The Value Of A Win: Analysis Of Playoff Structures, Matthew Orsi

Honors Projects in Mathematics

The purpose of this Senior Capstone project is to analyze the distinctions between existing playoff systems. In particular, we are looking to analyze the differences between the standard single-elimination tournament (which the NCAA has used since the inception of the tournament) and other potential options: double-elimination and multiple game series. Popular sports such as Major League Baseball and the National Basketball Association all use multiple game series for their playoffs. This project will use probability theory and simulation to determine the likelihood of different seeds winning a championship as well as the expected number of victories by seed in each …

A Simulation Of Anthropogenic Mammoth Extinction, Matthew Klapman

Undergraduate Honors Papers

There are multiple hypotheses as to why the Columbian Mammoth (Mammuthus columbi) and other megafauna in North America went extinct relatively recently and relatively quickly. The most popular of which are disease, climate change, meteorite strikes, and over hunting by humans [2, 9]. There is evidence to show that a combination of factors contributed to the megafaunal extinction, but ”overkill” explores the idea that early humans migrated onto the continent and then hunted the mammoths and other megafauna to extinction. The overkill hypothesis was first proposed by anthropologist Paul Martin in 1973 [8]. Evidence from radiocarbon dating shows that the …

Stationary Acceleration Of Frenet Curves, Nemat Abazari, Martin Bohner, Ilgin Sager, Yusuf Yayli

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

In this paper, the stationary acceleration of the spherical general helix in a 3-dimensional Lie group is studied by using a bi-invariant metric. The relationship between the Frenet elements of the stationary acceleration curve in 4-dimensional Euclidean space and the intrinsic Frenet elements of the Lie group is outlined. As a consequence, the corresponding curvature and torsion of these curves are computed. In Minkowski space, for the curves on a timelike surface to have a stationary acceleration, a necessary and sufficient condition is refined.

Climate Change, Natural Disasters, And Suicide: A Systematic Review, Ans Irfan, Peter Lapuma

GW Research Days 2016 - 2020

Background.
Natural disasters are projected to increase due to climate change. Mental health is not a well-researched area in public health, particularly as it relates to environmental health and in the aftermath of natural disasters. The suicide rate is approximately 13 per 100,000 people in the US, nationally. This already high suicide rate warrants researching this area mental health. Understanding the relation between natural disasters and suicide rates might help alleviate human suffering and potentially save lives in the future, in post-disaster settings. This research will further the knowledge of the association between natural disasters and suicide and provide foundation …

Poisson Windowing, David L. Farnsworth

Articles

The statistical quality-control technique of windowing takes advantage of the additive property of the Poisson probability distribution and the geometry of the data. There are abundant applications of windowing to observations that naturally occur in arrays or that are produced in them, such as computer chips, which are manufactured many at a time on wafers. Standard statistical procedures are used.

Outcomes After Diagnosis Of Mild Cognitive Impairment In A Large Autopsy Series, Erin L. Abner, Richard J. Kryscio, Frederick A. Schmitt, David W. Fardo, Daniela C. Moga, Eseosa T. Ighodaro, Gregory A. Jicha, Lei Yu, Hiroko H. Dodge, Chengjie Xiong, Randall L. Woltjer, Julie A. Schneider, Nigel J. Cairns, David A. Bennett, Peter T. Nelson

Epidemiology and Environmental Health Faculty Publications

OBJECTIVE: To determine clinical and neuropathological outcomes following a clinical diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

METHODS: Data were drawn from a large autopsy series (N = 1,337) of individuals followed longitudinally from normal or MCI status to death, derived from 4 Alzheimer Disease (AD) Centers in the United States.

RESULTS: Mean follow‐up was 7.9 years. Of the 874 individuals ever diagnosed with MCI, final clinical diagnoses were varied: 39.2% died with an MCI diagnosis, 46.8% with a dementia diagnosis, and 13.9% with a diagnosis of intact cognition. The latter group had pathological features resembling those with a final clinical …

Now You See It, Now You Don't! A Study Of Content Modification Behavior In Facebook, Fuxiang Chen, Ee-Peng Lim

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Social media, as a major platform to disseminate information, has changed the way users and communities contribute content. In this paper, we aim to study content modifications on public Facebook pages operated by news media, community groups, and bloggers. We also study the possible reasons behind them, and their effects on user interaction. We conducted a detailed study of Content Censorship (CC) and Content Edit (CE) in Facebook using a detailed longitudinal dataset consisting of 57 public Facebook pages over 3 weeks covering 145,955 posts and 9,379,200 comments. We detected many CC and CE activities between 28% and 56% of …

Variables Associated With Overweight/Obesity Among African-American Women With Hypertension And/Or Diabetes, Monica A. Hamilton, Dnp, Rn, Acns-Bc

Doctor of Nursing Practice Projects

BACKGROUND

Obesity is the second leading cause of preventable death next to tobacco use. Although it is prevalent in all populations, it disproportionately affects AA women. Overweight/obesity increases AA women’s chances of developing chronic illnesses such as diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, and decreases their life expectancy. The purpose of this study was to explore variables associated with overweight/obese AA women with hypertension and/or diabetes.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis was conducted using a descriptive-correlational design to analyze cross-sectional data obtained from the 2013 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The sample consisted of AA women (n =1823). The dependent variable …

Intraindividual Variability In Cortisol: Approaches, Illustrations, And Recommendations, Suzanne C. Segerstrom, Sandra E. Sephton, Philip M. Westgate

Psychology Faculty Publications

Most of the variance in diurnal cortisol is attributable to intraindividual variability (IIV), defined as relatively short-term, reversible changes. Multiple methods for measuring IIV have been proposed, and some have already been applied to cortisol IIV. In the present review, measurement methods are described and applied to simulated cortisol data with known underlying differences in IIV and to real cortisol data from first-year law students. More slope variance and more residual or net variance were well captured by their individual standard deviations. Explorations of reliability suggested that 10 slopes and 50 residuals result in reliable and stable estimates of the …

Level Of Patient-Physician Agreement In Assessment Of Change Following Conservative Rehabilitation For Shoulder Pain, Stephanie D. Moore-Reed, W. Ben Kibler, Heather M. Bush, Timothy L. Uhl

Biostatistics Faculty Publications

Background Assessment of health-related status has been shown to vary between patients and physicians, although the degree of patient–physician discordance in the assessment of the change in status is unknown.

Methods Ninety-nine patients with shoulder dysfunction underwent a standardized physician examination and completed several self-reported questionnaires. All patients were prescribed the same physical therapy intervention. Six weeks later, the patients returned to the physician, when self-report questionnaires were re-assessed and the Global Rating of Change (GROC) was completed by the patient. The physician completed the GROC retrospectively. To determine agreement between patient and physician, intra-class correlation (ICC) coefficient and Pearson’s …