Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Statistical Analysis Of 2017-18 Premier League Match Statistics Using A Regression Analysis In R, Bergen Campbell

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This thesis analyzes the correlation between a team’s statistics and the success of their performances, and develops a predictive model that can be used to forecast final season results for that team. Data from the 2017-2018 Premier League season is to be gathered and broken down within R to highlight what factors and variables are largely contributing to the success or downfall of a team. A multiple linear regression model and stepwise selection process is then used to include any factors that are significant in predicting in match results.

The predictions about the 17-18 season results based on the model …

Adaptive Optimal Market Making Strategies With Inventory Liquidation Cost, Yi Zhang

Arts & Sciences Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

Along the lines of the paper \cite{zoe}, we find a general form of the optimal market making strategy for a high-frequency market maker (HFM) in a discrete-time Limit Order Book (LOB) model. Unlike \cite{zoe}, the optimal market making strategy is adaptive depending on the arrival of Market Order (MO) in the previous time intervals. We provide a method to make each placement of Limit Orders (LO) dependent on previous information in the same trading day and prove the admissibility of the optimal market making strategy under some general assumptions. Empirical study shows the adaptive optimal strategies outperform the non-adaptive strategy …

Identifying Armed Group Presence Using Hidden Markov Models, Mauricio Vela Baron

Arts & Sciences Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

Identifying armed group presence is often helpful for conflict studies to examine patterns of conflict. Armed group presence is often used as the main variable of interest in several studies, and in some cases, this variable is ignored. Many of these studies use expert data or proxy variables to analyze armed group presence. This paper proposes Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) as a method to identify armed group presence. HMMs permit identifying armed group presence at a sub-national level and in long panel data sets. A HMM is used in this paper to identify paramilitary and FARC presence in Colombia. The …

Does Social Support Moderate The Association Between Income And Food Security Status Among Seniors Living In Southern Nevada?, Adugna Teka Siweya

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Background: Income is the strongest predictor of food insecurity among seniors, and social support also an essential factor to help mitigate the effects of food insecurity. However, little is known about the potential role that social support may play as a moderator of the association between income and food insecurity. Thus, we aim to examine social support as a moderator for the relationship between income and food insecurity among seniors. Methods: Logistic regression models were used to analyze data collected in 2019 from seniors residing in Southern Nevada. Predictors of food insecurity, sociodemographic factors, social support variables, and income and …

The Effect Of High Elevation Weather Stations On The Usda's Pasture, Rangeland, And Forage Insurance Program, Wyatt Matthew Feuz

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

This paper examines the effect of high elevation weather stations on the rainfall index used by the Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage insurance program. Weather station data for the state of Utah is used to identify high elevation weather stations and their location. Utilizing the corresponding rainfall index data, the effect of the high elevation weather stations is determined. This paper finds when high elevation weather stations begin reporting there is a jump up of 19.01–27.88 percentage points on average in the rainfall index for the corresponding grid locations. This indicates the rainfall index may not accurately represent actual precipitation amounts …

A Comparison Of The Localized Aviation Mos Program (Lamp) And Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (Taf) Accuracy For General Aviation, Douglas D. Boyd, Thomas A. Guinn

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering

Background. For general aviation (GA) pilots, operations in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) carry an elevated risk of a fatal accident. As to whether a general aviation flight can be safely undertaken, aerodrome-specific forecasts (TAF, LAMP) provide guidance. Although LAMP forecasts are more common for GA-frequented aerodromes, nevertheless, the FAA recommends that for such aerodromes (and for which a TAF is not issued) the airman uses the TAF generated for the geographically closest airport for pre-flight weather evaluation. Herein, for non-TAF-issuing airports, the LAMP (sLAMP) predictive accuracy for visual (VFR) and instrument (IFR) flight rules flight category was determined.

Method. sLAMP …

Epigenome-Wide Association Study Of Kidney Function Identifies Trans-Ethnic And Ethnic-Specific Loci, Charles E. Breeze, Anna Batorsky, Mi Kyeong Lee, Mindy D. Szeto, Xiaoguang Xu, Daniel L. Mccartney, Rong Jiang, Amit Patki, Holly J. Kramer, James M. Eales, Laura Raffield, Leslie Lange, Ethan Lange, Peter Durda, Yongmei Liu, Russ P. Tracy, David Van Den Berg, Nhlbi Trans-Omics For Precision Medicine (Topmed) Consortium, Topmed Mesa Multi-Omics Working Group, Kathryn L. Evans, William E. Kraus, Donna K. Arnett

Epidemiology and Environmental Health Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation (DNAm) is associated with gene regulation and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a measure of kidney function. Decreased eGFR is more common among US Hispanics and African Americans. The causes for this are poorly understood. We aimed to identify trans-ethnic and ethnic-specific differentially methylated positions (DMPs) associated with eGFR using an agnostic, genome-wide approach.

METHODS: The study included up to 5428 participants from multi-ethnic studies for discovery and 8109 participants for replication. We tested the associations between whole blood DNAm and eGFR using beta values from Illumina 450K or EPIC arrays. Ethnicity-stratified analyses were performed using linear …

How Risk-Related Statistics, As Reported In News And Social Media, Are Linked To The Use Of The Public Transit System, Prashiddhi Pokhrel

Thinking Matters Symposium

Due to the pandemic, people have started relying more on televisions, news, social media, and other news outlets for guidance. Moreover, with the increasing amount of news, data, and information there is also an increase in the amount of misleading statistics. People’s opinions and decisions significantly depend on the data, statistics, and information that they are exposed to, as well as their sources. For this project, we want to look at how information and its sources are affecting the decision made by the general public for the usage of the Portland Transit System. It is very important to know why …

Anatomy Of A Conspiracy Theory: Law, Politics, And Science Denialism In The Era Of Covid-19, Brie Sherwin

Texas A&M Law Review

With COVID-19, we are facing the most serious public health threat of our lifetime. Now, more than ever, we need experts and sound scientific advice to guide critical decision-making during the pandemic. With conspiracy theories and other similar rhetorical weapons being used to discredit our scientific experts, we face a myriad of misinformation, mistruths, and all-out attacks on our experts, breeding distrust between the public and the policymakers leading the fight against the pandemic. As President Trump took office, scientists were routinely denigrated and isolated. Furthermore, science denialism has permeated its way up to the highest levels of government, resulting …

Markov Chains And Their Applications, Fariha Mahfuz

Math Theses

Markov chain is a stochastic model that is used to predict future events. Markov chain is relatively simple since it only requires the information of the present state to predict the future states. In this paper we will go over the basic concepts of Markov Chain and several of its applications including Google PageRank algorithm, weather prediction and gamblers ruin.

We examine on how the Google PageRank algorithm works efficiently to provide PageRank for a Google search result. We also show how can we use Markov chain to predict weather by creating a model from real life data.

Maternal Methylmercury Exposure Through Rice Ingestion And Child Neurodevelopment In The First Three Years: A Prospective Cohort Study In Rural China, Sarah E. Rothenberg, Susan A. Korrick, Jihong Liu, Yanfen Nong, Chuan Hong, Eva P. Trinh, Xu Jiang, Fred J. Biasini, Fengxiu Ouyang

Faculty Publications

Background

Rice is an important dietary source for methylmercury; however, rice does not contain the same beneficial nutrients as fish. Our main objective was to assess associations of prenatal methylmercury exposure through rice ingestion with child neurodevelopment in rural China.

Methods

Eligible peripartum women were enrolled (n = 391), provided peripartum hair samples, and children’s neurodevelopment was assessed at 12 months (n = 264, 68%) and 36 months (n = 190, 48%) using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, 2nd Edition, including the Mental Developmental Index (MDI) and the Psychomotor Developmental Index (PDI). Associations between prenatal methylmercury …

Disability-Free Life Expectancy Among People Over 60 Years Old By Sex, Urban And Rural Areas In Jiangxi Province, China, Shengwei Wang, Songbo Hu, Pei Wang, Yuhang Wu, Zhitao Liu, Huilie Zheng

Statistics Graduate Research

Objective: To estimate and compare age trends and the disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) of the population over 60 years old in 2018 in Jiangxi Province, China, by sex and urban–rural areas. Methods: The model life table was employed to estimate the age-specific mortality rate by sex and urban–rural areas, based on the Summary of Health Statistics of Jiangxi Province in 2018 and the Sixth National Health Service survey of Jiangxi Province. DFLE and its ratio to life expectancy (LE) were obtained by the Sullivan method. Results: In 2018, the DFLE among people over 60 is 17.157 years for men and …

A Mosquito Population Model With Four Positive Equilibrium Points And Sterile Insect Release, Maxwell Joseph Fox

Honors Capstone Projects and Theses

No abstract provided.

An Exploratory Analysis Of The Bgsu Learning Commons Student Usage Data, Emily Eskuri

Honors Projects

The purpose of this study was to explore past student usage data in individualized tutoring sessions from the Learning Commons from two academic years. The Bowling Green State University (BGSU) Learning Commons is a learning assistance center that offers various services, such as individualized tutoring, math assistance, writing assistance, study hours, and academic coaching. There have been limited research studies into how big data and analytics can have an impact in higher education, especially research utilizing predictive analytics.

This project applied analytics to individualized tutoring data in the Learning Commons to create a better understanding of why those trends happen …

Associations Between Family-Based Stress And Dietary Inflammatory Potential Among Families With Preschool-Aged Children, Valerie Hruska, Nitin Shivappa Mbbs, Mph, Ph.D., James R. Hébert Scd, Alison M. Duncan, Jess Hines, David W. L. Ma

Faculty Publications

Chronic stress is known to influence dietary choices, and stressed families often report poorer diet quality; however, little is known about how family-based stress is linked with dietary patterns that promote inflammation. This study investigated associations between family-based stress and the inflammatory potential of the diet among preschool-aged children and their parents. Parents (n = 212 mothers, n = 146 fathers) and children (n = 130 girls, n = 123 boys; aged 18 months to 5 years) from 241 families participating in the Guelph Family Health Study were included in the analyses. Parents reported levels of parenting distress, depressive symptoms, …

Peptoid Microsphere Coatings To Improve Performance In Sandwich Elisa Microarrays, Jesse L. Roberts, German R. Perez Bakovic, Shannon L. Servoss

Chemical Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) microarray performance is limited by low assay sensitivity and dynamic range. Increasing the surface area for reagent binding can help to improve performance, but standard techniques such as roughening the surface or adding a polymer coating lead to increased non-specific fluorescence and do not have reproducibly improved performance. Another approach to increase surface area is adding a microsphere coating on the surface. Poly-N-substituted glycine (peptoid) microspheres are ideal for this application due to low immunogenicity, protease-resistance, and biocompatibility. Peptoids are polymers with a backbone similar to peptides, but with the side chains appended to nitrogen rather …

An Ensemble Of The Icluster Method To Analyze Longitudinal Lncrna Expression Data For Psoriasis Patients, Suyan Tian, Chi Wang

Internal Medicine Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is an immune-mediated, inflammatory disorder of the skin with chronic inflammation and hyper-proliferation of the epidermis. Since psoriasis has genetic components and the diseased tissue of psoriasis is very easily accessible, it is natural to use high-throughput technologies to characterize psoriasis and thus seek targeted therapies. Transcriptional profiles change correspondingly after an intervention. Unlike cross-sectional gene expression data, longitudinal gene expression data can capture the dynamic changes and thus facilitate causal inference.

METHODS: Using the iCluster method as a building block, an ensemble method was proposed and applied to a longitudinal gene expression dataset for psoriasis, with the …

Understanding The Effect Of Adaptive Mutations On The Three-Dimensional Structure Of Rna, Justin Cook

Undergraduate Research and Scholarship Symposium

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are variations in the genome where one base pair can differ between individuals.¹ SNPs occur throughout the genome and can correlate to a disease-state if they occur in a functional region of DNA.¹According to the central dogma of molecular biology, any variation in the DNA sequence will have a direct effect on the RNA sequence and will potentially alter the identity or conformation of a protein product. A single RNA molecule, due to intramolecular base pairing, can acquire a plethora of 3-D conformations that are described by its structural ensemble. One SNP, rs12477830, which …

Disparities In Meeting Uspstf Breast, Cervical, And Colorectal Cancer Screening Guidelines Among Women In The United States, Gabriel A. Benavidez, Anja Zgodic, Whitney Zahnd, Jan Eberth

Faculty Publications

Introduction

Many sociodemographic factors affect women’s ability to meet cancer screening guidelines. Our objective was to examine which sociodemographic characteristics were associated with women meeting US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening.

Methods

We used 2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to examine the association between sociodemographic variables, such as race/ethnicity, rurality, education, and insurance status, and self-reported cancer screening for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer. We used multivariable log-binomial regression models to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% CIs.

Results

Overall, the proportion of women meeting USPSTF guidelines for breast, cervical, …

Conjunction Of Factors Impacting The 2019-2020 Flu Season In The Us, Yichen Wang

Undergraduate Research Symposium 2021

The 2019-2020 flu season is regarded as one of the most serious ones in decades. Previous researchers usually studied the effects of different factors on seasonal flu separately instead of their conjugate impact, so we wanted to find how multiple factors combine to affect the spread of influenza in the 2019-2020 flu season in America. We chose types of virus (A and B), environmental factors (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity), population density, and influenza vaccination status for different age groups which are statewide data containing monthly information from Sep. 2019 to May 2020. By principal component analysis, we could see the …