Probability Commons^™

Stochastic Hybrid Control, A. Bensoussan, J. L. Menaldi

Mathematics Faculty Research Publications

The objective of this paper is to study the stochastic version of a previous paper of the authors, in which hybrid control for deterministic systems was considered. The modelling is quite similar to the deterministic case. We have a system whose state is composed of a continuous part and a discrete part. They are affected by a continuous type control and an impulse control. The dynamics is moreover perturbed by noise, also a continuous and a discrete noise process. The Markovian character of the state process is preserved. We develop the model and show how the dynamic programming approach leads …

What's Best?, Arthur T. Benjamin, Matthew T. Fluet '99

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

No abstract provided in this article.

A Rational Solution To Cootie, Arthur T. Benjamin, Matthew T. Fluet '99

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

No abstract provided in this article.

A Leveque-Type Lower Bound For Discrepancy, Francis E. Su

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

A sharp lower bound for discrepancy on R / Z is derived that resembles the upper bound due to LeVeque. An analogous bound is proved for discrepancy on R^k / Z^k. These are discussed in the more general context of the discrepancy of probablity measures. As applications, the bounds are applied to Kronecker sequences and to a random walk on the torus.

Estimating The Probability Of Severe Convective Storms: A Local Perspective For The Central And Northern Plains, Preston W. Leftwich Jr.

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration: Technical Reports and Related Materials

Summary and Conclusions

A procedure to estimate probabilities of the occurrence of severe convective storms within local areas has been described. Probabilities were based on a simulated climatology and the relative frequency of severe convective events when a selected site was contained within an operational Outlook or Watch. Combined data from five local areas were used to develop a general model for local probabilities within the central and northern Plains region. Attachment of probabilities to specific products placed values within a framework familiar to both forecasters and "end-users." Application of results in an operational scenario demonstrated representative local probabilities and …

Invariant Measure For Diffusions With Jumps, Jose-Luis Menaldi, Maurice Robin

Mathematics Faculty Research Publications

Our purpose is to study an ergodic linear equation associated to diffusion processes with jumps in the whole space. This integro-differential equation plays a fundamental role in ergodic control problems of second order Markov processes. The key result is to prove the existence and uniqueness of an invariant density function for a jump diffusion, whose lower order coefficients are only Borel measurable. Based on this invariant probability, existence and uniqueness (up to an additive constant) of solutions to the ergodic linear equation are established.

The Stable Manifold Theorem For Stochastic Differential Equations, Salah-Eldin A. Mohammed, Michael K. R. Scheutzow

Articles and Preprints

We formulate and prove a local stable manifold theorem for stochastic differential equations (SDEs) that are driven by spatial Kunita-type semimartingales with stationary ergodic increments. Both Stratonovich and Itô-type equations are treated. Starting with the existence of a stochastic flow for a SDE, we introduce the notion of a hyperbolic stationary trajectory. We prove the existence of invariant random stable and unstable manifolds in the neighborhood of the hyperbolic stationary solution. For Stratonovich SDEs, the stable and unstable manifolds are dynamically characterized using forward and backward solutions of the anticipating SDE. The proof of the stable manifold theorem is based …

How Do Judges Think About Risk?, W. Kip Viscusi

Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications

A sample of almost 100 judges exhibited well-known patterns of biases in risk beliefs and reasonable implicit values of life. These biases and personal preferences largely do not affect attitudes toward judicial risk decisions, though there are some exceptions, such as ambiguity aversion, misinterpretation of negligence rules, and retrospective risk assessments in accident cases, which is a form of hindsight bias. Although judges avoided many pitfalls exhibited by jurors and the population at large, they nevertheless exhibited systematic errors, particularly for small probability-large loss events. These findings highlighted the importance of judicial review and the input of expert risk analysts …

Review Of: Charles R. Bennett, Risks In The Environment: How To Assess Them, Penny Dean

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Review of: Charles R. Bennett, Risks in the Environment: How to Assess Them (Burloak Publications 1996). Appendices, references for the appendices, prologue. ISBN 0-9680438-0-1 [305 pp. Paper $23.95. 277 Belvenia Rd., Burlington, Ontario.]

Spatial Estimates For Stochastic Flows In Euclidean Space, Salah-Eldin A. Mohammed, Michael K. R. Scheutzow

Articles and Preprints

We study the behavior for large |x| of Kunita-type stochastic flows φ(t, ω, x) on R^d, driven by continuous spatial semimartingales. For this class of flows we prove new spatial estimates for large |x|, under very mild regularity conditions on the driving semimartingale random field. It is expected that the results would be of interest for the theory of stochastic flows on noncompact manifolds as well as in the study of nonlinear filtering, stochastic functional and partial differential equations. Some examples and counterexamples are given.

Convergence Of Random Walks On The Circle Generated By An Irrational Rotation, Francis E. Su

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

Fix . Consider the random walk on the circle which proceeds by repeatedly rotating points forward or backward, with probability , by an angle . This paper analyzes the rate of convergence of this walk to the uniform distribution under ``discrepancy'' distance. The rate depends on the continued fraction properties of the number . We obtain bounds for rates when is any irrational, and a sharp rate when is a quadratic irrational. In that case the discrepancy falls as (up to constant factors), where is the number of steps in the walk. This is the first example of a sharp …

Infinite-Dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equations In Gauss-Sobolev Spaces, Pao-Liu Chow, Jose-Luis Menaldi

Mathematics Faculty Research Publications

We consider the strong solution of a semi linear HJB equation associated with a stochastic optimal control in a Hilbert space H: By strong solution we mean a solution in a L²(μ,H)-Sobolev space setting. Within this framework, the present problem can be treated in a similar fashion to that of a finite-dimensional case. Of independent interest, a related linear problem with unbounded coefficient is studied and an application to the stochastic control of a reaction-diffusion equation will be given.

Single Row Routing: Theoretical And Experimental Performance Evaluation, And New Heuristic Development, David A. Hysom

Computer Science Theses & Dissertations

The Single Row Routing Problem (SRRP) is an abstraction arising from real-world multilayer routing concerns. While NP-Complete, development of efficient SRRP routing heuristics are of vital concern to VLSI design. Previously, researchers have introduced various heuristics for SRRP; however, a comprehensive examination of SRRP behavior has been lacking.

We are particularly concerned with the street-congestion minimization constraint, which is agreed to be the constraint of greatest interest to industry. Several theorems stating lower bounds on street congestion are known. We show that these bounds are not tight in general, and argue they may be in error by at least 50% …

Ergodic Control Of Reflected Diffusions With Jumps, Jose-Luis Menaldi, Maurice Robin

Mathematics Faculty Research Publications

No abstract provided.

Lyapunov Exponents Of Linear Stochastic Functional-Differential Equations. Ii. Examples And Case Studies, Salah-Eldin A. Mohammed, Michael K. R. Scheutzow

Articles and Preprints

We give several examples and examine case studies of linear stochastic functional differential equations. The examples fall into two broad classes: regular and singular, according to whether an underlying stochastic semi-flow exists or not. In the singular case, we obtain upper and lower bounds on the maximal exponential growth rate $\overlineλ₁$(σ) of the trajectories expressed in terms of the noise variance σ . Roughly speaking we show that for small σ, $\overlineλ₁$(σ) behaves like -σ² /2, while for large σ, it grows like logσ. In the regular case, it is shown that a discrete Oseledec …

A Monte Carlo Model Of Uncertainty In A Deterministic Hazardous Waste Transportation Risk Assessment, Michael A. Cowen

Masters Theses

This thesis is aimed at developing and applying advanced modeling tools in the prediction of risk to the general public from transportation of chemical waste on public highways. The modeling tools developed can then be used to compare alternative waste management scenarios. The application considered is related to the transport of hazardous waste generated by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) to current treatment, storage, and disposal facilities. DOE is currently considering four different scenarios.

The application considered can be more specifically defined as an analysis of the risk to the general public from transporting the 63 shipments of …

Some Applications Of Sophisticated Mathematics To Randomized Computing, Ronald I. Greenberg

Computer Science: Faculty Publications and Other Works

No abstract provided.

Adaptive Integration Of Audio And Visual Information Using Discrete And Semi-Continuous Hidden Markov Models In Audiovisual Automatic Speech Recognition, Qin Su

Electrical & Computer Engineering Theses & Dissertations

An audiovisual semi-continuous hidden Markov model (HMM)-based Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) system and an improved method of integrating audio and visual information in an audiovisual discrete HMM-based ASR system are investigated.

In the audiovisual discrete HMM, an adaptive integration formulation is employed, which incorporates the integration into the HMM at a pre-categorical stage. A visual weighting parameter is determined automatically, which allows the relative contribution of audio and visual information to be adjusted adaptively. Using an adaptive weight, the accuracy increased by 13% compared to the same model with no adaptive weight.

The semi-continuous HMM is a class of models …

On An Investment-Consumption Model With Transaction Costs, Marianne Akian, José Luis Menaldi, Agnès Sulem

Mathematics Faculty Research Publications

This paper considers the optimal consumption and investment policy for an investor who has available one bank account paying a fixed interest rate and n risky assets whose prices are log-normal diffusions. We suppose that transactions between the assets incur a cost proportional to the size of the transaction. The problem is to maximize the total utility of consumption. Dynamic programming leads to a variational inequality for the value function. Existence and uniqueness of a viscosity solution are proved. The variational inequality is solved by using a numerical algorithm based on policies, iterations, and multigrid methods. Numerical results are displayed …

A New Archaeoastronomical Investigation Of The Irish Axial-Stone Circles, Frank T. Prendergast, Clive L. Ruggles

Conference Papers

This paper presents the preliminary results of a project undertaken in 1994 to investigate the astronomical potential of the axial-stone circles (ASCs) of seven or more stones in Counties Cork and Kerry, south-west Ireland. This group of sites is of particular interest in that the monuments in the group bear a striking resemblance to the recumbent stone circles (RSCs) of Aberdeenshire, eastern Scotland, which appear to exhibit a strong pattern of alignment in relation to prominent hilltop summits and the rising and setting position of the moon. The first indications from the Irish data are that similar patterns of alignment …

Control Uniqueness In Reconstructability Analysis, Martin Zwick

Complex Systems Faculty Publications and Presentations

When the reconstructability analysis of a directed system yields a structure in which a generated variable appears in more than one subsystem, information from all of the subsystems can be used in modeling the relationship between generating and generated variables. The conceptualization and procedure proposed here is discussed in relation to Klir's concept of control uniqueness.

Population Genetics: Estimation Of Distributions Through Systems Of Non-Linear Differential Equations, Nacer E. Abrouk, Robert J. Lopez

Mathematical Sciences Technical Reports (MSTR)

In stochastic population genetics, the fundamental quantity used for describing the genetic composition of a Mendelian population is the gene frequency. The process of change in the gene frequency is generally modeled as a stochastic process satisfying a stochastic differential equation. The drift and diffusion coefficients in this equation reflect such mechanisms as mutation, selection, and migration that affect the population. Except in very simple cases, it is difficult to determine the probability law of the stochastic process of change in gene frequency. We present a method for obtaining approximations of this process, enabling us to study models more realistic …

Smooth Densities For Degenerate Stochastic Delay Equations With Hereditary Drift, Denis R. Bell, Salah-Eldin A. Mohammed

Articles and Preprints

We establish the existence of smooth densities for solutions of R^d-valued stochastic hereditary differential systems of the form

dx(t) = H(t,x)dt + g(t, x(t - r))dW(t).

In the above equation, W is an n-dimensional Wiener process, r is a positive time delay, H is a nonanticipating functional defined on the space of paths in R^d and g is an n x d matrix-valued function defined on [0, ∞) x R^d, such that gg^* has …

Set-Theoretic Reconstructability Of Elementary Cellular Automata, Martin Zwick, Hui Shu

Complex Systems Faculty Publications and Presentations

Set-theoretic reconstructability analysis is used to characterize the structures of the mappings of elementary cellular automata. The minimum complexity structure for each ECA mapping, indexed by parameter σ, is more effective than the λ parameter of Langton as a predictor of chaotic dynamics.

Impact Of Field-Dependent Electronic Trapping Across Coulomb Repulsive Potentials On Low Frequency Charge Oscillations, R. P. Joshi, K. H. Schoenbach, P. K. Raha

Bioelectrics Publications

We have performed Monte Carlo simulations to obtain the field dependence of electronic trapping across repulsive potentials in GaAs. Such repulsive centers are associated with deep level impurities having multiply charged states. Our results reveal a field‐dependent maxima in the electronic capture coefficient, and the overall shape is seen to depend on the background electron density due to the effects of screening. Based on the Monte Carlo calculations, we have examined the stability of compensated semiconductors containing such repulsive centers. Our analysis indicates a potential for low frequency charge oscillations which is in keeping with available experimental data.

Approximation Methods For Singular Diffusions Arising In Genetics, Nacer E. Abrouk

Mathematical Sciences Technical Reports (MSTR)

Stochastic models in population genetics leading to diffusion equations are considered. When the drift and the square of the diffusion coefficients are polynomials, an infinite system of ordinary differential equations for the moments of the diffusion process can be derived using the Martingale property. An example is provided to show how the classical Fokker-Planck Equation approach may not be appropriate for this derivation. A Gauss-Galerkin method for approximating the laws of the diffusion, originally proposed by Dawson (1980), is examined. In the few special cases for which exact solutions are known, comparison shows that the method is accurate and the …

Optimal Control And Differential Games With Measures, E. N. Barron, R. Jensen, J. L. Menaldi

Mathematics Faculty Research Publications

We consider control problems with trajectories which involve ordinary measureable control functions and controls which are measures. The payoff involves a running cost in time and a running cost against the control measures. In the optimal control problem we are trying to minimize this payoff with both controls. In the differential game problem we are trying to minimize the cost with the ordinary controls assuming that the measure controls are chosen to maximize the cost. We will characterize the value functions in both cases using viscosity solution theory by deriving the Bellman and Isaacs equations.

Studies Of Electron-Beam Penetration And Free-Carrier Generation In Diamond Films, R. P. Joshi, K. H. Schoenbach, C. Molina, W. W. Hofer

Bioelectrics Publications

Experimental observations of the energy‐dependent electron‐beam penetration in type II‐A natural diamond are reported. The experimental data are compared with results obtained from numerical Monte Carlo simulations, and the results are in very good agreement. The results also reveal that a threshold energy of about 125 keV is necessary for complete penetration for a 35 μm sample. It is found that over the 30–180 keV range, the energy dependence of the penetration depth and total path length exhibits a power‐law relation. Monte Carlo simulations have also been performed to investigate the excess carrier‐generation profiles within diamond for a set of …

Singular Ergodic Control For Multidimensional Gaussian Processes, J. L. Menaldi, M. Robin, M. I. Taksar

Mathematics Faculty Research Publications

A multidimensional Wiener process is controlled by an additive process of bounded variation. A convex nonnegative function measures the cost associated with the position of the state process, and the cost of controlling is proportional to the displacement induced. We minimize a limiting time-average expected (ergodic) criterion. Under reasonable assumptions, we prove that the optimal discounted cost converges to the optimal ergodic cost. Moreover, under some additional conditions there exists a convex Lipschitz continuous function solution to the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation which provides an optimal stationary feedback control.

Estimation In A Marked Poisson Error Recapture Model Of Software Reliability, Rajan Gupta

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Nayak's (1988) model for the detection, removal, and recapture of the errors in a computer program is extended to a larger family of models in which the probabilities that the successive programs produce errors are described by the tail probabilities of discrete distribution on the positive integers. Confidence limits are derived for the probability that the final program produces errors. A comparison of the asymptotic variances of parameter estimates given by the error recapture and by the repetitive-run procedure of Nagel, Scholz, and Skrivan (1982) is made to determine which of these procedures efficiently uses the test time.