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Articles 1 - 4 of 4
Full-Text Articles in Probability
Bayesian Variable Selection Strategies In Longitudinal Mixture Models And Categorical Regression Problems., Md Nazir Uddin
Bayesian Variable Selection Strategies In Longitudinal Mixture Models And Categorical Regression Problems., Md Nazir Uddin
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
In this work, we seek to develop a variable screening and selection method for Bayesian mixture models with longitudinal data. To develop this method, we consider data from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) conducted by University of Michigan. Considering yearly out-of-pocket expenditures as the longitudinal response variable, we consider a Bayesian mixture model with $K$ components. The data consist of a large collection of demographic, financial, and health-related baseline characteristics, and we wish to find a subset of these that impact cluster membership. An initial mixture model without any cluster-level predictors is fit to the data through an MCMC …
Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov
Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov
Journal of Humanistic Mathematics
We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …
Probability Models And Compounding, David L. Farnsworth, James E. Marengo
Probability Models And Compounding, David L. Farnsworth, James E. Marengo
Articles
We present the case that the ideas contained in a particular sequence of formulas are important in probability and statistics. The synthesis offered by the concepts in the sequence can be very valuable. Facility with this sequence and its underpinnings should be in the skill set of anyone who uses or studies probability or statistics. For illustrative purposes, we give applications to mixture distributions and Bayesian analyses.
Simple Tools With Nontrivial Implications For Assessment Of Hypothesis-Evidence Relationships: The Interrogator’S Fallacy, Justus R. Riek
Simple Tools With Nontrivial Implications For Assessment Of Hypothesis-Evidence Relationships: The Interrogator’S Fallacy, Justus R. Riek
Journal of Humanistic Mathematics
This paper takes a mathematical analysis technique derived from the Interrogator’s Fallacy (in a legal context), expands upon it to identify a set of three interrelated probabilistic tools with wide applicability, and demonstrates their ability to assess hypothesis-evidence relationships associated with important problems