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Articles 1 - 11 of 11
Full-Text Articles in Probability
Dynamic Influence Diagram-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework And Application For Decision Support For Operators In Control Rooms, Joseph Mietkiewicz, Ammar N. Abbas, Chidera W. Amazu, Anders L. Madsen, Gabriele Baldissone
Dynamic Influence Diagram-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework And Application For Decision Support For Operators In Control Rooms, Joseph Mietkiewicz, Ammar N. Abbas, Chidera W. Amazu, Anders L. Madsen, Gabriele Baldissone
Articles
In today’s complex industrial environment, operators are often faced with challenging situations that require quick and accurate decision-making. The human-machine interface (HMI) can display too much information, leading to information overload and potentially compromising the operator’s ability to respond effectively. To address this challenge, decision support models are needed to assist operators in identifying and responding to potential safety incidents. In this paper, we present an experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of a recommendation system in addressing the challenge of information overload. The case study focuses on a formaldehyde production simulator and examines the performance of an improved Human-Machine Interface …
On The Evolution Equation For Modelling The Covid-19 Pandemic, Jonathan Blackledge
On The Evolution Equation For Modelling The Covid-19 Pandemic, Jonathan Blackledge
Books/Book chapters
The paper introduces and discusses the evolution equation, and, based exclusively on this equation, considers random walk models for the time series available on the daily confirmed Covid-19 cases for different countries. It is shown that a conventional random walk model is not consistent with the current global pandemic time series data, which exhibits non-ergodic properties. A self-affine random walk field model is investigated, derived from the evolutionary equation for a specified memory function which provides the non-ergodic fields evident in the available Covid-19 data. This is based on using a spectral scaling relationship of the type 1/ωα where ω …
The Dark Sky Character Of Archaeological Landscapes: Cultural Meaning And Conservation Strategies, Frank Prendergast
The Dark Sky Character Of Archaeological Landscapes: Cultural Meaning And Conservation Strategies, Frank Prendergast
Book/Book Chapter
This paper presents the first ever study of light pollution at selected Irish prehistoric archaeological landscapes. The concepts of cosmology and landscape are first briefly described and followed by a summary of early human settlement of the island. Building on this, the extant corpus of early prehistoric megalithic burial tombs is illustrated to show their contrasting distribution patterns and typology. Analysis of tomb locations using nearest-neighbour statistical methods reveals evidence of intentional clustering. Further geo-statistical analysis identifies the geographical locations and the density ranking of these nucleated clusters - a feature especially evident in the passage tomb tradition on this …
Embodied Emissions Abatement: A Policy Assessment Using Stochastic Analysis, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu
Embodied Emissions Abatement: A Policy Assessment Using Stochastic Analysis, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu
Articles
Policymakers traditionally focus on regulating operational energy use in buildings, ignoring other life cycle components such as embodied energy even though this may account for a significant portion of life cycle emissions. Data relating to embodied energy and emissions in buildings is limited. However, stochastic techniques can be used to estimate the distribution of such emissions from buildings. This helps policymakers identify which instruments are appropriate for achieving emissions reductions. A primary aim of this paper is to demonstrate this approach using a sample of apartment buildings in Ireland. A Monte-Carlo simulation suggests that the average probability distribution of embodied …
Stochastic Hybrid Embodied Co2-Eq Analysis: An Application To The Irish Apartment Building Sector, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu
Stochastic Hybrid Embodied Co2-Eq Analysis: An Application To The Irish Apartment Building Sector, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu
Articles
Although embodiedCO2-eq analysis has seen recent developments as evident in the establishment of the ISO14040 and 14044 LCA standards, it is recognized that due to weaknesses in gathering data on product-related emissions,embodiedCO2-eq values are probabilistic. This paper presents a stochastic analysis of hybrid embodied CO2-eq in buildings to account for this weakness in traditional methods and, by way of example, applies it to an Irish construction-sector case study. Using seven apartment buildings, 70,000 results are simulated with Monte Carlo analysis and used to derive probabilistic and cumulative embodied CO2-eq intensity distributions for apartment buildings in Ireland. A Wakeby distribution with …
The Generation Of Domestic Electricity Load Profiles Through Markov Chain Modelling, Aidan Duffy, Fintan Mcloughlin, Michael Conlon
The Generation Of Domestic Electricity Load Profiles Through Markov Chain Modelling, Aidan Duffy, Fintan Mcloughlin, Michael Conlon
Conference Papers
Micro-generation technologies such as photovoltaics and micro-wind power are becoming increasing popular among homeowners, mainly a result of policy support mechanisms helping to improve cost competiveness as compared to traditional fossil fuel generation. National government strategies to reduce electricity demand generated from fossil fuels and to meet European Union 20/20 targets is driving this change. However, the real performance of these technologies in a domestic setting is not often known as high time resolution models for domestic electricity load profiles are not readily available. As a result, projections in terms of reducing electricity demand and financial paybacks for these micro-generation …
Economic Risk Assessment Using The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Marek Rebow
Economic Risk Assessment Using The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Marek Rebow
Conference papers
This paper considers the Fractal Market Hypothesi (FMH) for assessing the risk(s) in developing a financial portfolio based on data that is available through the Internet from an increasing number of sources. Most financial risk management systems are still based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis which often fails due to the inaccuracies of the statistical models that underpin the hypothesis, in particular, that financial data are based on stationary Gaussian processes. The FMH considered in this paper assumes that financial data are non-stationary and statistically self-affine so that a risk analysis can, in principal, be applied at any time scale …
Fractional Anisotropic Diffusion For Noise Reduction In Magnetic Resonance Images, Jonathan Blackledge, Matthew Blackledge
Fractional Anisotropic Diffusion For Noise Reduction In Magnetic Resonance Images, Jonathan Blackledge, Matthew Blackledge
Articles
We extend the method of anisotropic diffusion for noise reduction in digital images to the case when the diffusion processes are non-Gaussian and Levy distributed. This yields a fractional diffusion equation characterised by the Levy index. A solution to this equation is considered and a numerical algorithm developed. The algorithm is then applied as a case study to the problem of reducing noise in magnetic resonance imaging. The focus of this study is on diffusion weighted images which have low signal-to-noise ratios.
Encryption Using Deterministic Chaos, Jonathan Blackledge, Nikolai Ptitsyn
Encryption Using Deterministic Chaos, Jonathan Blackledge, Nikolai Ptitsyn
Articles
The concepts of randomness, unpredictability, complexity and entropy form the basis of modern cryptography and a cryptosystem can be interpreted as the design of a key-dependent bijective transformation that is unpredictable to an observer for a given computational resource. For any cryptosystem, including a Pseudo-Random Number Generator (PRNG), encryption algorithm or a key exchange scheme, for example, a cryptanalyst has access to the time series of a dynamic system and knows the PRNG function (the algorithm that is assumed to be based on some iterative process) which is taken to be in the public domain by virtue of the Kerchhoff-Shannon …
A New Archaeoastronomical Investigation Of The Irish Axial-Stone Circles, Frank T. Prendergast, Clive L. Ruggles
A New Archaeoastronomical Investigation Of The Irish Axial-Stone Circles, Frank T. Prendergast, Clive L. Ruggles
Conference Papers
This paper presents the preliminary results of a project undertaken in 1994 to investigate the astronomical potential of the axial-stone circles (ASCs) of seven or more stones in Counties Cork and Kerry, south-west Ireland. This group of sites is of particular interest in that the monuments in the group bear a striking resemblance to the recumbent stone circles (RSCs) of Aberdeenshire, eastern Scotland, which appear to exhibit a strong pattern of alignment in relation to prominent hilltop summits and the rising and setting position of the moon. The first indications from the Irish data are that similar patterns of alignment …
Shadow Casting Phenomena At Newgrange, Frank Prendergast
Shadow Casting Phenomena At Newgrange, Frank Prendergast
Articles
A digital model of the Newgrange passage tomb and surrounding ring of monoliths known as the Great Circle is used to investigate sunrise shadow casting phenomena at the monument. Diurnal variation in shadow directions and lengths are analysed for their potential use in the Bronze Age to indicate the passage of seasonal time. Computer-aided simulations are developed from a photogrammetric survey to accurately show how three of the largest monoliths, located closest to the tomb entrance and archaeologically coded GC1, GC-1 and GC-2, cast their shadows onto the vertical face of the entrance kerbstone, coded K1. The phenomena occur at …