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Full-Text Articles in Probability

A Leslie System For A Demographic Simulation: From An Actuarial Point Of View, David Kings Dec 2025

A Leslie System For A Demographic Simulation: From An Actuarial Point Of View, David Kings

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a discrete stochastic linear systems interpretation of age–stage demographic evolution grounded in Leslie operators and realized in a discrete-event simulation implemented with salabim. The central claim is that one annual cycle of the simulation constitutes a cone-preserving, stochastic affine transformation on a high- dimensional population state vector indexed by age, sex, marital status, household type, employment, and education, and that the composition of yearly operators yields a random matrix product whose top Lyapunov exponent is the stochastic counterpart of the Perron–Frobenius growth rate (Caswell, 2001; Tuljapurkar, 1997)[1, 2]. The actuarial bridge is constructed by mapping simulated survival …


Performance Of The Two Sample Likelihood Ratio Test Under A Nested Dirichlet: A Simulation Study, Edwina Agyeman Aug 2025

Performance Of The Two Sample Likelihood Ratio Test Under A Nested Dirichlet: A Simulation Study, Edwina Agyeman

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Compositional data analysis (CoDA) addresses multivariate data constrained to a constant sum, such as proportions or percentages. Originating from early warnings regarding misinterpretation by Pearson (1897), the field was formalized by John Aitchison in 1986, whose foundational work remains highly influential. Over time, new modeling techniques and visualization tools have advanced the field, as noted by Greenacre et al. More recently, Turner et al. proposed an approach based on the Nested Dirichlet Distribution (NDD), which accommodates more flexible dependence structures than the standard Dirichlet model. This thesis builds on the methodology of Turner et al. Chapter 1 introduces the nature …


Simulation Study On Confidence Interval Estimation For Standard Deviation With Non-Normal Distributions, Theophilus Oppong Kyeremeh Aug 2024

Simulation Study On Confidence Interval Estimation For Standard Deviation With Non-Normal Distributions, Theophilus Oppong Kyeremeh

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This study explores innovative approaches to constructing confidence intervals for the population standard deviation, σ, in non-normal data scenarios. While the sample standard deviation, s, is widely used, its reliability is compromised when dealing with skewed or heavy-tailed distributions and exhibits sensitivity to outliers. Our research addresses these limitations by investigating alternative estimation methods that offer greater robustness and accuracy.


Predicting High-Cap Tech Stock Polarity: A Combined Approach Using Support Vector Machines And Bidirectional Encoders From Transformers, Ian L. Grisham May 2023

Predicting High-Cap Tech Stock Polarity: A Combined Approach Using Support Vector Machines And Bidirectional Encoders From Transformers, Ian L. Grisham

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The abundance, accessibility, and scale of data have engendered an era where machine learning can quickly and accurately solve complex problems, identify complicated patterns, and uncover intricate trends. One research area where many have applied these techniques is the stock market. Yet, financial domains are influenced by many factors and are notoriously difficult to predict due to their volatile and multivariate behavior. However, the literature indicates that public sentiment data may exhibit significant predictive qualities and improve a model’s ability to predict intricate trends. In this study, momentum SVM classification accuracy was compared between datasets that did and did not …


Bayesian Variable Selection Strategies In Longitudinal Mixture Models And Categorical Regression Problems., Md Nazir Uddin Aug 2021

Bayesian Variable Selection Strategies In Longitudinal Mixture Models And Categorical Regression Problems., Md Nazir Uddin

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In this work, we seek to develop a variable screening and selection method for Bayesian mixture models with longitudinal data. To develop this method, we consider data from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) conducted by University of Michigan. Considering yearly out-of-pocket expenditures as the longitudinal response variable, we consider a Bayesian mixture model with $K$ components. The data consist of a large collection of demographic, financial, and health-related baseline characteristics, and we wish to find a subset of these that impact cluster membership. An initial mixture model without any cluster-level predictors is fit to the data through an MCMC …


Zeta Function Regularization And Its Relationship To Number Theory, Stephen Wang May 2021

Zeta Function Regularization And Its Relationship To Number Theory, Stephen Wang

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

While the "path integral" formulation of quantum mechanics is both highly intuitive and far reaching, the path integrals themselves often fail to converge in the usual sense. Richard Feynman developed regularization as a solution, such that regularized path integrals could be calculated and analyzed within a strictly physics context. Over the past 50 years, mathematicians and physicists have retroactively introduced schemes for achieving mathematical rigor in the study and application of regularized path integrals. One such scheme was introduced in 2007 by the mathematicians Klaus Kirsten and Paul Loya. In this thesis, we reproduce the Kirsten and Loya approach to …


Generalizations Of The Arcsine Distribution, Rebecca Rasnick May 2019

Generalizations Of The Arcsine Distribution, Rebecca Rasnick

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The arcsine distribution looks at the fraction of time one player is winning in a fair coin toss game and has been studied for over a hundred years. There has been little further work on how the distribution changes when the coin tosses are not fair or when a player has already won the initial coin tosses or, equivalently, starts with a lead. This thesis will first cover a proof of the arcsine distribution. Then, we explore how the distribution changes when the coin the is unfair. Finally, we will explore the distribution when one person has won the first …


Distribution Of A Sum Of Random Variables When The Sample Size Is A Poisson Distribution, Mark Pfister Aug 2018

Distribution Of A Sum Of Random Variables When The Sample Size Is A Poisson Distribution, Mark Pfister

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

A probability distribution is a statistical function that describes the probability of possible outcomes in an experiment or occurrence. There are many different probability distributions that give the probability of an event happening, given some sample size n. An important question in statistics is to determine the distribution of the sum of independent random variables when the sample size n is fixed. For example, it is known that the sum of n independent Bernoulli random variables with success probability p is a Binomial distribution with parameters n and p: However, this is not true when the sample size …


The Expected Number Of Patterns In A Random Generated Permutation On [N] = {1,2,...,N}, Evelyn Fokuoh Aug 2018

The Expected Number Of Patterns In A Random Generated Permutation On [N] = {1,2,...,N}, Evelyn Fokuoh

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Previous work by Flaxman (2004) and Biers-Ariel et al. (2018) focused on the number of distinct words embedded in a string of words of length n. In this thesis, we will extend this work to permutations, focusing on the maximum number of distinct permutations contained in a permutation on [n] = {1,2,...,n} and on the expected number of distinct permutations contained in a random permutation on [n]. We further considered the problem where repetition of subsequences are as a result of the occurrence of (Type A and/or Type B) replications. Our method of enumerating the Type A replications causes double …


Evaluation Of Using The Bootstrap Procedure To Estimate The Population Variance, Nghia Trong Nguyen May 2018

Evaluation Of Using The Bootstrap Procedure To Estimate The Population Variance, Nghia Trong Nguyen

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The bootstrap procedure is widely used in nonparametric statistics to generate an empirical sampling distribution from a given sample data set for a statistic of interest. Generally, the results are good for location parameters such as population mean, median, and even for estimating a population correlation. However, the results for a population variance, which is a spread parameter, are not as good due to the resampling nature of the bootstrap method. Bootstrap samples are constructed using sampling with replacement; consequently, groups of observations with zero variance manifest in these samples. As a result, a bootstrap variance estimator will carry a …


Newsvendor Models With Monte Carlo Sampling, Ijeoma W. Ekwegh Aug 2016

Newsvendor Models With Monte Carlo Sampling, Ijeoma W. Ekwegh

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Newsvendor Models with Monte Carlo Sampling by Ijeoma Winifred Ekwegh The newsvendor model is used in solving inventory problems in which demand is random. In this thesis, we will focus on a method of using Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the order quantity that will either maximizes revenue or minimizes cost given that demand is uncertain. Given data, the Monte Carlo approach will be used in sampling data over scenarios and also estimating the probability density function. A bootstrapping process yields an empirical distribution for the order quantity that will maximize the expected profit. Finally, this method will be used …


Some New Probability Distributions Based On Random Extrema And Permutation Patterns, Jie Hao May 2014

Some New Probability Distributions Based On Random Extrema And Permutation Patterns, Jie Hao

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In this paper, we study a new family of random variables, that arise as the distribution of extrema of a random number N of independent and identically distributed random variables X1,X2, ..., XN, where each Xi has a common continuous distribution with support on [0,1]. The general scheme is first outlined, and SUG and CSUG models are introduced in detail where Xi is distributed as U[0,1]. Some features of the proposed distributions can be studied via its mean, variance, moments and moment-generating function. Moreover, we make some other choices for …