Probability Commons^™

A Compact Representation Of Oscillatory Limits Via Asymptotic Value Distributions, Ibrahim Arnous, Eric M. Rodarte, Chirag Kumar

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Classical limits describe asymptotic behavior through convergence to a single value, but many important oscillatory functions do not converge in this sense. Standard examples such as sin(𝑥) as 𝑥→∞ and sin(1/x) as x→0 instead display stable distributions of values over time. This project examines how such behavior can be described using a measure-theoretic framework, particularly through occupation measures and, in sequence-based settings, Young measures. The objective is to present this perspective in a clear and accessible way while introducing the Ansatz representation, a compact notation for recording the support and density of an asymptotic value distribution when the limiting measure …

Statistical Study Of Solar Wind Conditions Prior To Substorm Onsets, Luke H. Francis

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Due to complex, multi-region, coupled plasma systems, auroral substorm onsets have been historically difficult to predict. The northward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field was considered the primary candidate as an external triggering mechanism for substorm onsets. However, that was later shown to be coincidental in nature. This study is motivated by recent multi-spacecraft observations that show how several magnetosheath jets at the bow shock were heavily correlated to substorm onsets, indicated by a strongly radial IMF interval. In the past, studies have looked at small samples of substorms in order to make large-scale predictions. However in this study, a …

Robust Spacecraft Autonomy For Deep Space Exploration In Special Euclidean Group Se(3), Matthew Wittal

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Over the past half-century, humanity has gained extensive experience conducting manned spaceflight near Earth. Arguably, "near Earth" could even include the Moon — the most distant destination humans have reached. However, "near" in this work primarily refers low Earth orbit (LEO). One could argue that we have not truly left Earth since the Apollo, as spacecraft in some LEOs remain subject to atmospheric drag thus emphasizing their continued connection to Earth's immediate environment. Reflecting on this, it becomes clear that humanity has largely remained bound to Earth’s immediate vicinity since the Apollo missions reached the Moon. However, that is set …

Reu-Deim Classification Of Hispanic Voters In Hispanic Groups Using Name And Zip Code Data In Palm Beach, Florida, Kamila Soto-Ortiz

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

When it comes to registering to vote, Hispanic voters can only register as “Hispanic” in the “Race/Ethnicity” category, causing difficulties when analyzing voting trends amongst the Hispanic community. Upon the recent idea that not all Hispanic Groups vote the same, the goal is to create a model that can possibly identify a voter’s Hispanic Group with the information provided on the public Florida voter file. This is accomplished using name and zip code data for all voters in Palm Beach, Florida. This paper will explore the model implemented, its findings and limitations. Palm Beach, Florida, is met with low confidence …

Development And Testing Of A New Method For Velocity-Selecting White Dwarfs From Gaia By Galactic Population, Joseph Hammill

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The detailed processes by which spiral galaxies form remains an open question in modern cosmology. Observations of the current configuration of spiral galaxies including the Milky Way reveal thin and thick disk and halo populations which must all be accounted for in formation theories and likely have distinct ages. Using the Milky Way as an example to probe this question, we are studying the formation history of these structures.

This work details our approach to age-dating the galaxy, velocity-selecting targets from a sample of white dwarfs from the Gaia DR3 catalog that have also been age-analysed using BASE-9. BASE-9 uses …

Stochastic Optimization To Reduce Aircraft Taxi-In Time At Igia, New Delhi, Rajib Das, Saileswar Ghosh, Rajendra Desai, Pijus Kanti Bhuin, Stuti Agarwal

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Since there is an uncertainty in the arrival times of flights, pre-scheduled allocation of runways and stands and the subsequent first-come-first-served treatment results in a sub-optimal allocation of runways and stands, this is the prime reason for the unusual delays in taxi-in times at IGIA, New Delhi.

We simulated the arrival pattern of aircraft and utilized stochastic optimization to arrive at the best runway-stands allocation for a day. Optimization is done using a GRG Non-Linear algorithm in the Frontline Systems Analytic Solver platform. We applied this model to eight representative scenarios of two different days. Our results show that without …

Public Acceptance Of Medical Screening Recommendations, Safety Risks, And Implied Liabilities Requirements For Space Flight Participation, Cory J. Trunkhill

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The space tourism industry is preparing to send space flight participants on orbital and suborbital flights. Space flight participants are not professional astronauts and are not subject to the rules and guidelines covering space flight crewmembers. This research addresses public acceptance of current Federal Aviation Administration guidance and regulations as designated for civil participation in human space flight.

The research utilized an ordinal linear regression analysis of survey data to explore the public acceptance of the current medical screening recommended guidance and the regulations for safety risk and implied liability for space flight participation. Independent variables constituted participant demographic representations …

Machine Learning To Predict Warhead Fragmentation In-Flight Behavior From Static Data, Katharine Larsen

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Accurate characterization of fragment fly-out properties from high-speed warhead detonations is essential for estimation of collateral damage and lethality for a given weapon. Real warhead dynamic detonation tests are rare, costly, and often unrealizable with current technology, leaving fragmentation experiments limited to static arena tests and numerical simulations. Stereoscopic imaging techniques can now provide static arena tests with time-dependent tracks of individual fragments, each with characteristics such as fragment IDs and their respective position vector. Simulation methods can account for the dynamic case but can exclude relevant dynamics experienced in real-life warhead detonations. This research leverages machine learning methodologies to …

Digital Forensics Tool Selection With Multi-Armed Bandit Problem, Umit Karabiyik, Tugba Karabiyik

Annual ADFSL Conference on Digital Forensics, Security and Law

Digital forensics investigation is a long and tedious process for an investigator in general. There are many tools that investigators must consider, both proprietary and open source. Forensics investigators must choose the best tool available on the market for their cases to make sure they do not overlook any evidence resides in suspect device within a reasonable time frame. This is however hard decision to make, since learning and testing all available tools make their job only harder. In this project, we define the digital forensics tool selection for a specific investigative task as a multi-armed bandit problem assuming that …

Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing

Publications

Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including …