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2011

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Articles 1 - 15 of 15

Full-Text Articles in Probability

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi Dec 2011

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …


Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba Dec 2011

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …


Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan Dec 2011

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …


Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda Dec 2011

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …


Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari Dec 2011

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …


Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola Dec 2011

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …


Book Review: What’S Luck Got To Do With It? The History, Mathematics, And Psychology Of The Gambler’S Illusion By Joseph Mazur, Michael Lugo Jul 2011

Book Review: What’S Luck Got To Do With It? The History, Mathematics, And Psychology Of The Gambler’S Illusion By Joseph Mazur, Michael Lugo

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

This review of Joseph Mazur's book on the history of gambling, for a general audience, is in three parts, paralleling the structure of the book. The first part briefly outlines Mazur's coverage of the history of probability from prehistory to the present day, with a focus on gambling. The second part examines the relationship between the mathematics of gambling and probability theory, and summarizes classical problems in probability arising from gambling such as Galileo's dice and the Pascal-Fermat problem of points. The third part, on psychology, discusses the gambler's illusion and psychological motivations for gambling.


Computational Insight With Monte Carlo Simulations, Boyan Kostadinov Jul 2011

Computational Insight With Monte Carlo Simulations, Boyan Kostadinov

Publications and Research

We introduce Monte Carlo simulations for estimating areas by playing a game of "darts". We also introduce simulations of random walks. We use compact, vectorized programming, based on the R language, for all computer simulations and visualizations, aimed at high school students. This presentation is based on the Invited, prime time lecture given at the summer camp for gifted high school students at City College of New York, July 13, 2011.


Analysis Of The 2008 Flare Of Markarian 421 Flare With Veritas, Casey Allard Jun 2011

Analysis Of The 2008 Flare Of Markarian 421 Flare With Veritas, Casey Allard

Physics

A theoretical light curve model is fit to an observed short term flare of Markarian (Mrk) 421 in the very high energy spectrum. The flare is characterized by its measured light curve from the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging telescope Array System (VERITAS). The flare we analyzed occurred in May 2008. We successfully fit a theoretical model to the Mrk 421 data light curve. The data appears to agree with the Wagner [1] and Salvati [2] models. These models appear to fit both broad and sharp flaring regions found in the measured light curve. Furthermore the Wagner model is used to …


Markov Bases For Noncommutative Harmonic Analysis Of Partially Ranked Data, Ann Johnston May 2011

Markov Bases For Noncommutative Harmonic Analysis Of Partially Ranked Data, Ann Johnston

HMC Senior Theses

Given the result $v_0$ of a survey and a nested collection of summary statistics that could be used to describe that result, it is natural to ask which of these summary statistics best describe $v_0$. In 1998 Diaconis and Sturmfels presented an approach for determining the conditional significance of a higher order statistic, after sampling a space conditioned on the value of a lower order statistic. Their approach involves the computation of a Markov basis, followed by the use of a Markov process with stationary hypergeometric distribution to generate a sample.This technique for data analysis has become an accepted tool …


Martingale Couplings And Bounds On Tails Of Probability Distributions, Kyle Luh May 2011

Martingale Couplings And Bounds On Tails Of Probability Distributions, Kyle Luh

HMC Senior Theses

Wassily Hoeffding, in his 1963 paper, introduces a procedure to derive inequalities between distributions. This method relies on finding a martingale coupling between the two random variables. I have developed a construction that establishes such couplings in various urn models. I use this construction to prove the inequality between the hypergeometric and binomial random variables that appears in Hoeffding's paper. I have then used and extended my urn construction to create new inequalities.


Embodied Emissions Abatement: A Policy Assessment Using Stochastic Analysis, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu Apr 2011

Embodied Emissions Abatement: A Policy Assessment Using Stochastic Analysis, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu

Articles

Policymakers traditionally focus on regulating operational energy use in buildings, ignoring other life cycle components such as embodied energy even though this may account for a significant portion of life cycle emissions. Data relating to embodied energy and emissions in buildings is limited. However, stochastic techniques can be used to estimate the distribution of such emissions from buildings. This helps policymakers identify which instruments are appropriate for achieving emissions reductions. A primary aim of this paper is to demonstrate this approach using a sample of apartment buildings in Ireland. A Monte-Carlo simulation suggests that the average probability distribution of embodied …


Stochastic Hybrid Embodied Co2-Eq Analysis: An Application To The Irish Apartment Building Sector, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu Apr 2011

Stochastic Hybrid Embodied Co2-Eq Analysis: An Application To The Irish Apartment Building Sector, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu

Articles

Although embodiedCO2-eq analysis has seen recent developments as evident in the establishment of the ISO14040 and 14044 LCA standards, it is recognized that due to weaknesses in gathering data on product-related emissions,embodiedCO2-eq values are probabilistic. This paper presents a stochastic analysis of hybrid embodied CO2-eq in buildings to account for this weakness in traditional methods and, by way of example, applies it to an Irish construction-sector case study. Using seven apartment buildings, 70,000 results are simulated with Monte Carlo analysis and used to derive probabilistic and cumulative embodied CO2-eq intensity distributions for apartment buildings in Ireland. A Wakeby distribution with …


Overcoming Pose Limitations Of A Skin-Cued Histograms Of Oriented Gradients Dismount Detector Through Contextual Use Of Skin Islands And Multiple Support Vector Machines, Jonathon R. Climer Mar 2011

Overcoming Pose Limitations Of A Skin-Cued Histograms Of Oriented Gradients Dismount Detector Through Contextual Use Of Skin Islands And Multiple Support Vector Machines, Jonathon R. Climer

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis provides a novel visualization method to analyze the impact that articulations in dismount pose and camera aspect angle have on histograms of oriented gradients (HOG) features and eventual detections. Insights from these relationships are used to identify limitations in a state of the art skin cued HOG dismount detector's ability to detect poses not in a standard upright stances. Improvements to detector performance are made by further leveraging available skin information, reducing false detections by an additional order of magnitude. In addition, a method is outlined for training supplemental support vector machines (SVMs) from computer generated data, for …


Drag Reduction Of A Modern Straight Truck, Drew Landman, Matthew Cragun, Mike Mccormick, Richard Wood Jan 2011

Drag Reduction Of A Modern Straight Truck, Drew Landman, Matthew Cragun, Mike Mccormick, Richard Wood

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Faculty Publications

A wind tunnel test program was conducted at the Langley Full Scale Tunnel (LFST) to evaluate the performance of five passive drag reduction configurations on a modern straight truck at full scale. Configurations were tested in a build-up fashion with results representing a cumulative effect. Tested configurations include a front valance, a front box fairing, a boat-tail, an ideal side-skirt, and a practical side-skirt. Configurations were evaluated over a nominal 9 degree yaw sweep to establish wind averaged drag coefficients using SAE J1252. Genuine replicate yaw sweeps were used in an uncertainty analysis. Results show up to 28% improvement in …