Probability Commons^™

Machine Learning For Predictive Energy And Emissions Modeling Of Vehicles And Power Grids In The United States, S M Tanvir Faysal Alam Chowdhoury

Dissertations

The environmental benefits of electric vehicle (EV) adoption depend on more than replacing internal combustion engine vehicles with electric powertrains. EV adoption reshapes electricity demand, interacts with regional generation mixes, and influences travel behavior and congestion, creating a coupled transportation-energy system in which vehicle and power-plant emissions must be evaluated together. This dissertation develops machine-learning frameworks for predicting energy consumption and emissions from vehicles and power grids under rising EV adoption. The first component forecasts grid emissions from EV charging. Using simulation data from NREL's Cambium database, a Prophet-based time-series framework predicts carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane emission rates …

A New Approach To Generate Combinatorial Patterns In Logical Analysis Of Data And Its Application To Predict College Retention, Salihah Ahmed E. Jaafari

Theses and Dissertations

Student retention and degree completion remain central challenges for higher-education institutions, with significant implications for student success, institutional effectiveness, and public accountability. While advances in predictive analytics have enabled earlier identification of students at risk of withdrawal, many commonly used machine learning approaches suffer from limited interpretability, constraining their practical usefulness for advising, intervention, and policy decision making. This dissertation addresses the problem of predicting student persistence by developing and evaluating optimization based, interpretable classification models within the Logical Analysis of Data (LAD) framework. Building on existing LAD formulations, this research introduces two novel pattern generation models, the Best Term …

Effective Wordle Heuristics, Ronald I. Greenberg

Computer Science: Faculty Publications and Other Works

While previous researchers have performed an exhaustive search to determine an optimal Wordle strategy, that computation is very time consuming and produced a strategy using words that are unfamiliar to most people. With Wordle solutions being gradually eliminated (with a new puzzle each day and no reuse), an improved strategy could be generated each day, but the computation time makes a daily exhaustive search impractical. This paper shows that simple heuristics allow for fast generation of effective strategies and that little is lost by guessing only words that are possible solution words rather than more obscure words.

Beyond The Lace Index: Benchmarking Machine Learning Architectures And Explaining 30-Day Hospital Readmission Risk With Shap Analysis, Carl E. Hughes Iii

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Unplanned 30-day hospital readmission remains a fundamental challenge in US healthcare, associated with increased risk to patient recovery and representing an estimated $52.4 billion in annual expenses (Beauvais et al., 2022). While the rigorously validated LACE index serves as the clinical standard for readmission modeling, its linear structure and four explanatory variables lack the complexity to capture the high-dimensional and interactive nature of patient risk. This study utilizes an admission granularity level cohort of the MIMIC-IV database to develop and compare machine learning architectures against the baseline LACE index. Due to the imbalanced prevalence of readmission, the penalized logistic regression, …

Swimming In Uncertainty: Filling Data Gaps And Providing An Educational Platform For Beach Water Quality At Tybee Island, Georgia, Lukas Roberson

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

@font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-536870145 1107305727 0 0 415 0;}p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman",serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}.MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; mso-font-kerning:0pt; mso-ligatures:none;}div.WordSection1 {page:WordSection1;}

Swimming in beaches water contaminated with high levels of bacteria can make you sick. Current monitoring at the public beaches on Tybee Island consists of weekly monitoring and enumeration of fecal indicator bacteria that takes 24 hours for results. If the number of bacteria exceed regulatory limits, a public health advisory is issued, and affected waters are retested until …

A Leslie System For A Demographic Simulation: From An Actuarial Point Of View, David Kings

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a discrete stochastic linear systems interpretation of age–stage demographic evolution grounded in Leslie operators and realized in a discrete-event simulation implemented with salabim. The central claim is that one annual cycle of the simulation constitutes a cone-preserving, stochastic affine transformation on a high- dimensional population state vector indexed by age, sex, marital status, household type, employment, and education, and that the composition of yearly operators yields a random matrix product whose top Lyapunov exponent is the stochastic counterpart of the Perron–Frobenius growth rate (Caswell, 2001; Tuljapurkar, 1997)[1, 2]. The actuarial bridge is constructed by mapping simulated survival …

Aleci: An R Package For Non-Parametric Confidence Intervals On Accumulated Local Effects Plots, Matthew R. Lister

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

Machine learning models can take a collection of inputs and craft an output. The mathematical formulas these models use to calculate their outputs easily become too complex or time consuming for a human to analyze. Collectively, we refer to these as black box models. Accumulated local effects plots (ALE) are a method for adding interpretability and visibility into the effects that individual variables contribute to the predictions made by black box models. The method designed by D.W. Apley calculates equally spaced point estimates of the response value to construct a graph across the range of the variable of interest. AleCI …

Mortgage Default Classification Modeling For Variable Analysis, Brendan R. Goggins

Honors College Theses

The financial crisis of the early 2000’s is a prime example of the severe consequences that mortgage default and borrower insolvency can have on economies at large. Mortgage default specifically is a prime case with the popularization of mortgage backed securities and the commonality of this loan structure. Multiple hypotheses and models have been formed to understand the reasons, causes, and consequences of mortgage default. This paper uses both machine learning and statistical classification models to inform an understanding of the variables most significant and impactful to the default outcome of mortgages. Consideration is given to both loan-level microeconomic variables …

Statistical Study Of Solar Wind Conditions Prior To Substorm Onsets, Luke H. Francis

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Due to complex, multi-region, coupled plasma systems, auroral substorm onsets have been historically difficult to predict. The northward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field was considered the primary candidate as an external triggering mechanism for substorm onsets. However, that was later shown to be coincidental in nature. This study is motivated by recent multi-spacecraft observations that show how several magnetosheath jets at the bow shock were heavily correlated to substorm onsets, indicated by a strongly radial IMF interval. In the past, studies have looked at small samples of substorms in order to make large-scale predictions. However in this study, a …

Optimizing Decision-Making In A Cerebral Palsy Model Using Reinforcement Learning, Richard Ampah

Pitzer Senior Theses

This study presents an original interdisciplinary investigation into how reinforcement learning (RL) can model motor and cognitive defects and potentially improve motor and cognitive functions in individuals with cerebral palsy (CP), a non-progressive neurological disorder that impairs movement and adaptability. Integrating computational neuroscience and machine learning, the research applies policy gradient methods and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to simulate adaptive learning in agents with and without CP-related constraints.

The central aim is to compare the cumulative rewards of optimal policies, derived from value iteration, and human-like learning policies using the REINFORCE algorithm, both with and without the Bellman baseline. The …

Exploring Healthcare Chatbot Information Presentation: Applying Hierarchical Bayesian Regression And Inductive Thematic Analysis In A Mixed Methods Study, Samuel Nelson Koscelny

All Theses

High blood pressure, also known as hypertension, significantly increases the risk of heart disease and stroke, which are leading causes of death in the United States. While contributing to over 691,000 deaths in 2021 alone in the United States (U.S.), it also imposes immense economic burden on the healthcare system, costing approximately $131 billion annually. One way to address this issue is for increased self-care behaviors and medication adherence, both of which require sufficient health literacy. Despite the importance of health literacy, 90% of U.S. adults struggle with health-related subjects. Overcoming the issues associated with health literacy requires addressing the …

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Capturing Higher-Order Relationships Through Information Decomposition, Aobo Lyu

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

Mutual information between two random variables is a well-studied notion, whose understanding is fairly complete. Mutual information between one random variable and a pair of other random variables, however, is a far more involved notion. Specifically, Shannon's mutual information does not capture fine-grained interactions between those three variables, resulting in limited insights in complex systems. To capture these fine-grained higher-order interactions among variables, Williams and Beer proposed a framework called Partial Information Decomposition (PID) to decompose this mutual information to information atoms, called unique, redundant, and synergistic, and proposed several operational axioms that these atoms must satisfy. This conceptual …

Uconn Baseball Reliever Lane Optimization Tool, Jason Bartholomew

Honors Scholar Theses

The building of a tool to be utilized by UConn’s Division I baseball team that will generate a game plan for when different relievers should be used against different parts of the opponent’s lineup to achieve the lowest total expected value of runs allowed for the remainder of the game based on game situations and matchup probabilities. The tool will also examine and determine situations that may be vital enough to the outcome of the game to bring in a better reliever normally saved for later in the game.

Predicting Superconducting Critical Temperature Using Regression Analysis, Roland Fiagbe

Data Science and Data Mining

This project estimates a regression model to predict the superconducting critical temperature based on variables extracted from the superconductor’s chemical formula. The regression model along with the stepwise variable selection gives a reasonable and good predictive model with a lower prediction error (MSE). Variables extracted based on atomic radius, valence, atomic mass and thermal conductivity appeared to have the most contribution to the predictive model.

Judging Our New Judges: Why We Must Remove Artificial Intelligence From Our Courtrooms Now, Kieran Duffy Newcomb

Honors Theses and Capstones

In this paper, I explore some of the ways in which artificial intelligence might enhance the sentencing process through recidivism prediction technology. Notably, this technology can increase the accuracy of risk predictions and the speed with which sentencing decisions are reached. I then show, however, that the recidivism prediction technology is likely to turn into what data scientist Cathy O’Neil calls a Weapon of Math Destruction. The potential harmfulness of this technology is due not to the inherent nature of the technology, but the symbiotic relationship it will have with our already harmful criminal justice system. I argue that the …

Machine Learning Approaches For Cyberbullying Detection, Roland Fiagbe

Data Science and Data Mining

Cyberbullying refers to the act of bullying using electronic means and the internet. In recent years, this act has been identifed to be a major problem among young people and even adults. It can negatively impact one’s emotions and lead to adverse outcomes like depression, anxiety, harassment, and suicide, among others. This has led to the need to employ machine learning techniques to automatically detect cyberbullying and prevent them on various social media platforms. In this study, we want to analyze the combination of some Natural Language Processing (NLP) algorithms (such as Bag-of-Words and TFIDF) with some popular machine learning …

Optimizing Sports Outcome Prediction Through Feature Engineering And Machine Learning, Vitor S. Freitas

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

The challenge of predicting the outcome of a team game lies in the high complexity and dynamics of the sports data. This thesis focuses on the aspect of using feature engineering and the genetic algorithm to predict the winner and the score of various sports events. Generally, it deals with how machine learning algorithms are combined with state-of-the-art feature engineering techniques in sports datasets derived from various sports disciplines. In this thesis, five different machine learning models have been applied, classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), stochastic gradient boosting (SGB), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and extreme learning machine …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Ohio Recovery Housing: Resident Risk And Outcomes Assessment, Elyjiah Potter, Bivin Sadler

SMU Data Science Review

Addiction and substance abuse disorder is a significant problem in the United States. Over the past two decades, the United States has faced a boom in substance abuse, which has resulted in an increase in death and disruption of families across the nation. The State of Ohio has been particularly hard hit by the crisis, with overdose rates nearly doubling the national average. Established in the mid 1970’s Sober Living Housing is an alcohol and substance use recovery model emphasizing personal responsibility, sober living, and community support. This model has been adopted by the Ohio Recovery Housing organization, which seeks …

Exploration And Statistical Modeling Of Profit, Caleb Gibson

Undergraduate Honors Theses

For any company involved in sales, maximization of profit is the driving force that guides all decision-making. Many factors can influence how profitable a company can be, including external factors like changes in inflation or consumer demand or internal factors like pricing and product cost. Understanding specific trends in one's own internal data, a company can readily identify problem areas or potential growth opportunities to help increase profitability.

In this discussion, we use an extensive data set to examine how a company might analyze their own data to identify potential changes the company might investigate to drive better performance. Based …

Reu-Deim Classification Of Hispanic Voters In Hispanic Groups Using Name And Zip Code Data In Palm Beach, Florida, Kamila Soto-Ortiz

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

When it comes to registering to vote, Hispanic voters can only register as “Hispanic” in the “Race/Ethnicity” category, causing difficulties when analyzing voting trends amongst the Hispanic community. Upon the recent idea that not all Hispanic Groups vote the same, the goal is to create a model that can possibly identify a voter’s Hispanic Group with the information provided on the public Florida voter file. This is accomplished using name and zip code data for all voters in Palm Beach, Florida. This paper will explore the model implemented, its findings and limitations. Palm Beach, Florida, is met with low confidence …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Payments Data In Gambling Research, Kasra Ghaharian, Mana Azizsoltani

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

A considerable body of gambling-related research has leveraged gamblers' behavioral tracking data to address a broad set of research questions. These data have typically comprised of gamblers' betting-related behaviors including, for example, the frequency and volume of betting. The analysis of gamblers' payment-related behavioral data is far less common, but provides a fruitful avenue gambling-related research.

In this presentation we discuss a selection of potential research opportunities that payments transaction data presents. We supplement this discussion with specific analyses that have been performed by our research group. We also discuss knowledge gaps and areas for future research.

Predicting High-Cap Tech Stock Polarity: A Combined Approach Using Support Vector Machines And Bidirectional Encoders From Transformers, Ian L. Grisham

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The abundance, accessibility, and scale of data have engendered an era where machine learning can quickly and accurately solve complex problems, identify complicated patterns, and uncover intricate trends. One research area where many have applied these techniques is the stock market. Yet, financial domains are influenced by many factors and are notoriously difficult to predict due to their volatile and multivariate behavior. However, the literature indicates that public sentiment data may exhibit significant predictive qualities and improve a model’s ability to predict intricate trends. In this study, momentum SVM classification accuracy was compared between datasets that did and did not …

Public Acceptance Of Medical Screening Recommendations, Safety Risks, And Implied Liabilities Requirements For Space Flight Participation, Cory J. Trunkhill

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The space tourism industry is preparing to send space flight participants on orbital and suborbital flights. Space flight participants are not professional astronauts and are not subject to the rules and guidelines covering space flight crewmembers. This research addresses public acceptance of current Federal Aviation Administration guidance and regulations as designated for civil participation in human space flight.

The research utilized an ordinal linear regression analysis of survey data to explore the public acceptance of the current medical screening recommended guidance and the regulations for safety risk and implied liability for space flight participation. Independent variables constituted participant demographic representations …

Application Of Probabilistic Ranking Systems On Women’S Junior Division Beach Volleyball, Cameron Stewart, Michael Mazel, Bivin Sadler

SMU Data Science Review

Women’s beach volleyball is one of the fastest growing collegiate sports today. The increase in popularity has come with an increase in valuable scholarship opportunities across the country. With thousands of athletes to sort through, college scouts depend on websites that aggregate tournament results and rank players nationally. This project partnered with the company Volleyball Life, who is the current market leader in the ranking space of junior beach volleyball players. Utilizing the tournament information provided by Volleyball Life, this study explored replacements to the current ranking systems, which are designed to aggregate player points from recent tournament placements. Three …

Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on market interest rates in Nigeria. For parsimony, we develop two indexes called the short-term interest rate (SINT) and Lending interest rate (LINT) to represent deposit and lending rates respectively. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and threshold regression models are adopted. The study uses monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2019:M12. The results of the threshold regression model indicate that the degree of the effect of MPR on SINT and LINT above the estimated threshold of 11 and 13 percent respectively is greater and significant than if MPR were to …

Social Dimension Of Inclusive Growth In Ecowas: Implication For Poverty Reduction, Toriola K. Anu, Goerge O. Emmanuel, Ajayi O. Felix

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the implication of the social dimension of inclusive growth on poverty reduction in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. It specifically examines how social indices of inclusive growth comprising of income inequality, education, and health outcomes affect poverty reduction. The study uses a panel dataset of the six (6) lower-middle income countries in ECOWAS which was analysed via panel Difference Generalised Method of Moment (D-GMM). The results show that GDP per capita exerts significant negative effect on poverty while inequality, education and health outcomes do not show significant effect on poverty. Although, the estimates of …

Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of FDI on employment in ECOWAS sub region between 1990 and 2019. The study utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse the short run and long run relationship between FDI and employment across ECOWAS sub region. In the short run, the impact of FDI on employment is negative and statistically not significant. Meanwhile, in the long run FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment rate. This implies that FDI has the capacity to generate employment in countries in ECOWAS sub region. Therefore, this study recommends …