Statistics and Probability Commons^™

The Economics Of Lotto, Ian Walker, Robert E. Pryce, Rhys Wheeler, Nick Powdathvee

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

No abstract provided.

Stochastic Processes And Their Applications To Change Point Detection Problems, Heng Yang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation addresses the change point detection problem when either the post-change distribution has uncertainty or the post-change distribution is time inhomogeneous. In the case of post-change distribution uncertainty, attention is drawn to the construction of a family of composite stopping times. It is shown that the proposed composite stopping time has third order optimality in the detection problem with Wiener observations and also provides information to distinguish the different values of post-change drift. In the case of post-change distribution uncertainty, a computationally efficient decision rule with low-complexity based on Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) algorithm is also introduced. In the time …

Statistical Modeling Of Carbon Dioxide And Cluster Analysis Of Time Dependent Information: Lag Target Time Series Clustering, Multi-Factor Time Series Clustering, And Multi-Level Time Series Clustering, Doo Young Kim

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The current study consists of three major parts. Statistical modeling, the connection between statistical modeling and cluster analysis, and proposing new methods to cluster time dependent information.

First, we perform a statistical modeling of the Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) emission in South Korea in order to identify the attributable variables including interaction effects. One of the hot issues in the earth in 21st century is Global warming which is caused by the marriage between atmospheric temperature and CO₂ in the atmosphere. When we confront this global problem, we first need to verify what causes the problem then we …

Putting Prep Into Practice: Lessons Learned From Early-Adopting U.S. Providers' Firsthand Experiences Providing Hiv Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis And Associated Care, S. K. Calabrese, Manya Magnus, K. H. Mayer, D. S. Krakower, A. I. Eldahan, L. A. Gaston Hawkins, +5 Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Optimizing access to HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), an evidence-based HIV prevention resource, requires expanding healthcare providers' adoption of PrEP into clinical practice. This qualitative study explored PrEP providers' firsthand experiences relative to six commonly-cited barriers to prescription-financial coverage, implementation logistics, eligibility determination, adherence concerns, side effects, and anticipated behavior change (risk compensation)-as well as their recommendations for training PrEP-inexperienced providers. U.S.-based PrEP providers were recruited via direct outreach and referral from colleagues and other participants (2014-2015). One-on-one interviews were conducted in person or by phone, transcribed, and analyzed. The sample (n = 18) primarily practiced in the Northeastern (67%) or …

Testing Multiple Hypotheses With Skewed Alternatives, Naveen K. Bansal, Gholamhossein G. Hamedani, Mehdi Maadooliat

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

In many practical cases of multiple hypothesis problems, it can be expected that the alternatives are not symmetrically distributed. If it is known a priori that the distributions of the alternatives are skewed, we show that this information yields high power procedures as compared to the procedures based on symmetric alternatives when testing multiple hypotheses. We propose a Bayesian decision theoretic rule for multiple directional hypothesis testing, when the alternatives are distributed as skewed, under a constraint on a mixed directional false discovery rate. We compare the proposed rule with a frequentist's rule of Benjamini and Yekutieli (2005) using simulations. …

The Importance Of Prediction Model Validation And Assessment In Obesity And Nutrition Research, Andrada Ivanescu, P. Li, B. George, A. W. Brown, S. W. Keith, D. Raju, D. B. Allison

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Deriving statistical models to predict one variable from one or more other variables, or predictive modeling, is an important activity in obesity and nutrition research. To determine the quality of the model, it is necessary to quantify and report the predictive validity of the derived models. Conducting validation of the predictive measures provides essential information to the research community about the model. Unfortunately, many articles fail to account for the nearly inevitable reduction in predictive ability that occurs when a model derived on one data set is applied to a new data set. Under some circumstances, the predictive validity can …

Treatment With Actriib-Mfc Produces Myofiber Growth And Improves Lifespan In The Acta1 H40y Murine Model Of Nemaline Myopathy, Jennifer E. Tinklenberg, Hui W. Meng, Lin J. Yang, Fujun Liu, Raymond G. Hoffmann, Mahua Dasgupta, Kenneth P. Allen, Alan H. Beggs, Edna C. Hardeman, R. Scott Pearsall, Robert H. Fitts, Michael W. Lawlor

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

No abstract provided.

Partner Interfering Behaviors Affecting Cancer Quality Of Life, Ann L. Coker, Diane R. Follingstad, Lisandra S. Garcia, Heather M. Bush

Obstetrics and Gynecology Faculty Publications

Objective: Because partners are an important and unpaid resource in cancer care, understanding how destructive, controlling or interfering partner behaviors influence women's cancer care may be particularly relevant for health care providers seeking to provide cancer care and enhance recovery. Using a new measure of partner interfering behaviors in cancer care (PIB-C), we investigated whether women with a recent cancer diagnosis who additionally endorsed any PIB-C would report (a) more symptoms of depression and stress, and (b) lower Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy (FACT-G) and lower Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual Well-being (FACIT-SP) scale scores indicating poorer quality of …

Splash Dynamics Of Paint On Dry, Wet, And Cooled Surfaces, David Baron, Haiyan Su, Ashuwin Vaidya

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

In his classic study in 1908, A.M. Worthington gave a thorough account of splashes and their formation through visualization experiments. In more recent times, there has been renewed interest in this subject, and much of the underlying physics behind Worthington's experiments has now been clarified. One specific set of such recent studies, which motivates this paper, concerns the fluid dynamics behind Jackson Pollock's drip paintings. The physical processes and the mathematical structures hidden in his works have received serious attention and made the scientific pursuit of art a compelling area of exploration. Our current work explores the interaction of watercolors …

Enhancement Of Heat Transfer In Elastico-Viscous Fluid Due To Nanoparticles, Where The Fluid Is Impinging Obliquely To The Stretchable Surface: A Numerical Study, Tariq Javed, Abuzar Ghaffari, Tasawar Hayat

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

This article addresses the two-dimensional oblique stagnation point flow of non-Newtonian fluid in the presence of nanoparticles. Constitutive equations of Walter-B fluid are employed in the mathematical development of the relevant problems. Mathematical formulation includes the Brownian motion and thermophoresis effects. The resulting nonlinear system of equations are analyzed through Chebyshev Spectral Newton Iterative Scheme (CSNIS). A comparative study of present results through tabular values has been made with the previous results in a limiting sense and an excellent agreement is noted. It is also found that in near stagnation point region, the heat transfer rate and mass diffusion flux …

Priority Queueing System With A Single Server Serving Two Queues M[X1],M[X2]/G1,G2/1 With Balking And Optional Server Vacation, G. Ayyappan, P. Thamizhselvi

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

In this paper we study a vacation queueing system with a single server simultaneously dealing with an M^{[x₁] _/}G₁/1 and an M^{[x₂] /}G₂/1 queues. Two classes of units, priority and non-priority, arrive at the system in two independent compound Poisson streams. Under a non-preemptive priority rule, the server provides a general service to the priority and non-priority units. We further assume that the server may take a vacation of random length just after serving the last customer in the priority unit present in the system. If the server …

Analysis Of Incomplete Longitudinal Binary Data-A Combined Markov’S Transition And Logistic Model For Non-Ignorable Missingness, Francis Erebholo, Paul Bezandry, Victor Apprey, John Kwagyan

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

The problem of incomplete data is a common phenomenon in research that involves the longitudinal design approach. We investigate and develop a likelihood-based approach for incomplete longitudinal binary data using the disposition model when the missing value mechanism is non-ignorable. We combined Markov’s transition and a logistic regression model to build the dropout process and model the response using conditional logistic regression model. By holding the missingness parameter that is weakly identified constant, we analyzed their effects through a sensitivity analysis as the estimation of parameters in MLE for non-ignorable missing data is not generally plausible. An application of our …

Measurement Error Estimation Methods In Survey Methodology, Alireza Zahedian, Roshanak A. Saba

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

One of the most important topics that are discussed in survey methodology is the accuracy of statistics or survey errors that may occur in the parameters estimation process. In statistical literature, these errors are grouped into two main categories: sampling errors and non-sampling errors. Measurement error is one of the most important non-sampling errors. Since estimating of measurement error is more complex than other types of survey errors, much more research has been done on ways of preventing or dealing with this error. The main problem associated with measurement error is the difficulty to measure or estimate this error in …

Thinking Poker Through Game Theory, Damian Palafox

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Poker is a complex game to analyze. In this project we will use the mathematics of game theory to solve some simplified variations of the game. Probability is the building block behind game theory. We must understand a few concepts from probability such as distributions, expected value, variance, and enumeration methods to aid us in studying game theory. We will solve and analyze games through game theory by using different decision methods, decision trees, and the process of domination and simplification. Poker models, with and without cards, will be provided to illustrate optimal strategies. Extensions to those models will be …

Metals Additive Manufacturing Powder Aging Characterization, Thomas Russell Lovejoy, Nicholas Karl Muetterties, David Takeo Otsu

Mechanical Engineering

The metallic additive manufacturing process known as selective laser melting requires highly spherical, normally distributed powder with diameters in the range of 10 to 50 microns. Previous observations have shown a degradation in powder quality over time, resulting in unwanted characteristics in the final printed parts. 21-6-9 stainless steel powder was used to fabricate test parts, with leftover powder recycled back into the machine. Powder samples and test specimens were characterized to observe changes across build cycles. Few changes were observed in the physical and mechanical properties of the specimens, however, there were indications of chemical changes across cycles. Potential …

An Early Assessment Of Medium Range Monsoon Precipitation Forecasts From The Latest High-Resolution Ncep-Gfs (T1534) Model Over South Asia, Satya Prakash, Imaranali M. Momin, Ashis K. Mitra, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Fanglin Yang, Vijay Tallapragada

Publications and Research

Reliable prediction of the South Asian monsoon rainfall and its variability is crucial for various hydrological applications and early warning systems. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction – Global Forecast System (NCEP–GFS) is one of the popular global deterministic numerical weather prediction models, which is recently upgraded from T574 to T1534. In this paper, medium range monsoon precipitation forecasts from both the T1534 and T574 models are critically evaluated over the South Asia for the peak monsoon months (July and August) of 2015. Although both the versions of GFS model show similar large-scale monsoon rainfall patterns, the dry bias over …

Statistical Methodology For Data With Multiple Limits Of Detection, Robert M. Flikkema

Dissertations

Limitations of instruments used to collect continuous data sometimes lead to obtaining observations lower than a limit of detection. These observations are known as nondetects. They could be zeroes, or positive numbers, but they are too small to be recorded by a measuring device. Nondetects frequently occur in environmental data. Trace amounts of chemicals can exist in soil or groundwater and are undetectable by a machine reading. These observations pose a problem to researchers since the true values are unknown.

Simulations in the literature have led to inconsistent conclusions regarding what estimation technique to use with nondetect data when estimating …

Husband’S Support Towards Unmet Need Of Hiv Positive-Infected Women Of Childbearing Age, Sophia Sophia, Anita Deborah Anwar, Bony Wiem Lestari

Kesmas

Jutaan wanita usia subur (WUS) dengan HIV positif di negara berkembang saat ini tidak menggunakan kontrasepsi untuk menunda atau mengakhiri kehamilan. Pencegahan kehamilan yang tidak diinginkan pada WUS dengan HIV positif sangat penting untuk meningkatkan kualitas hidup ibu dan anak. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap unmet need pada WUS dengan HIV positif. Metode penelitian adalah cross sectional dengan sampel berjumlah 130 WUS dengan HIV positif yang diambil secara consecutive sampling. Penelitian dilakukan pada 24 Maret - 30 Juni 2015 di Klinik Mawar Kota Bandung. Pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui wawancara dengan menggunakan kuesioner, kemudian data dianalisis dengan …

Impact Of Husband’S Participation In Antenatal Care On The Use Of Skilled Birth Attendant, Febri Wicaksono

Kesmas

Pendekatan alternatif diperlukan untuk mengatasi persoalan kesehatan reproduksi, salah satunya dengan meningkatkan partisipasi laki-laki pada kesehatan reproduksi perempuan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menelusuri dampak partisipasi suami dalam pelayanan antenatal pada penggunaan tenaga persalinan terlatih setelah mengontrol karakteristik sosial demografi. Sampel sebanyak 4.000 perempuan berusia 15 – 49 tahun yang memiliki persalinan terakhir pada tahun lalu sebelum survei diambil dari Survei Demografi dan Kesehatan Indonesia tahun 2012. Penelitian menggunakan model regresi logistik biner untuk mengidentifikasi dampak partisipasi suami dalam pelayanan antenatal pada penggunaan tenaga persalinan terlatih setelah mengontrol karakteristik ibu dan sosial demografi. Peluang setelah mengontrol faktor lainnya mengindikasikan perempuan yang …

The Effect Of Structured Counseling Towards Knowledge, Attitude, And Participation Of Modern Contraceptive Among Unmet Need Couples, Herlina Simanjuntak, Bony Wiem Lestari, Anita Debora Anwar

Kesmas

Unmet need Keluarga Berencana (KB) masih tinggi di negara berkembang termasuk di Indonesia. Konseling kontrasepsi terstruktur berpotensi meningkatkan penggunaan kontrasepsi secara efektif, menjaga keberlangsungan penggunaan dan meningkatkan kepuasan klien. Selama ini seling kontrasepsi yang dilakukan belum optimal, sehingga penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh konseling terstruktur terhadap peningkatan pengetahuan, sikap dan partisipasi kontrasepsi modern pada pasangan usia subur (PUS) yang unmet need. Penelitian ini merupakan eksperimen semu dengan rancangan pretest-posttest dengan kelompok kontrol. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada periode Maret – Juni 2015. Pengambilan sampel dilakukan dengan stratified random sampling pada 48 orang untuk kelompok perlakuan (konseling terstruktur) dan 48 orang …

Effect Of Ambient Particulate Matter 2.5 Micrometer (Pm2.5) To Prevalence Of Impaired Lung Function And Asthma In Tangerang And Makassar, Budi Haryanto, Budy Resosoedarmo, Sri Tjahjani Budi Utami, Budi Hartono, Ema Hermawati

Kesmas

Emisi partikel debu 2,5 mikrometer (PM2.5) meningkat dengan bertambahnya jumlah penduduk kota akibat peningkatan angka kendaraan bermotor sebagai transportasi penduduk sehari-hari. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat gangguan fungsi paru dan asma serta hubungannya dengan kadar ambien PM2.5 pada masyarakat migran di Tangerang dan Makassar dan kondisi sosial ekonomi. Desain potong lintang digunakan dengan melibatkan 4.250 dan 2.900 responden di Tangerang dan Makassar pada bulan April sampai September 2010. Pendekatan cluster sampling diterapkan. Pengukuran ambien PM2.5 di masing-masing kota berdasarkan koordinat 40 lokasi Global Positioning System (GPS). Kadar PM2.5 ditemukan lebih tinggi pada pagi hari dibandingkan siang hari di kedua …

Birth Intervals Among Multiparous Women In Indonesia, Dini Kurniawati, Sabarinah Prasetyo

Kesmas

Angka kematian ibu dan angka kematian bayi di Indonesia masih tinggi. Salah satu faktor yang menyebabkan tingginya risiko kematian pada ibu dan bayi adalah kelahiran terlalu dekat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari determinan jarak antarkelahiran pada perempuan multipara di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data Survei Demografi Kesehatan Indonesia tahun 2012 pada 9.945 perempuan multipara. Analisis data menggunakan uji Mann Whitney, Kruskal Wallis, dan regresi logistik. Median jarak antarkelahiran sebesar 62 bulan dan 22,8% perempuan memiliki jarak antarkelahiran kurang dari tiga tahun. Hasil menunjukkan determinan jarak antarkelahiran pendek meliputi pendidikan ibu, usia terakhir melahirkan, ukuran ideal keluarga, pemakaian kontrasepsi, riwayat kematian …

Child Health Improvement Through Implementation Of Food Safety Model, Arief Safari, Machfud Machfud, Eriyatno Eriyatno, Heny Kuswanti Daryanto

Kesmas

Pemenuhan akan pangan merupakan komponen dasar untuk mewujudkan sumber daya manusia yang berkualitas. Namun, masih terdapat permasalahan dalam mewujudkannya, di antaranya masalah keamanan pangan dengan persentase kasus keracunan makanan masih tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis situasi pelaksanaan keamanan Pangan Jajanan Anak Sekolah (PJAS) yang ada saat ini dan memilih alternatif model keamanan pangan yang paling efektif dan efisien diterapkan di usaha mikro kecil (UMK) guna meningkatkan keamanan pangan yang dihasilkannya sehingga terjadi peningkatan kesehatan anak. Penelitian dilakukan pada kuartal II tahun 2015 sampai dengan awal kuartal III tahun 2015 melalui survei lapangan dan survei pakar dengan mengambil studi kasus …

Housewives’ Compliance In Reading Food Labels In Gorontalo City, Imran Tumenggung, Lucky Herawati, Sofyawati Talibo

Kesmas

Di Indonesia, masalah label pada kemasan makanan kurang mendapat perhatian konsumen. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari determinan kepatuhan membaca label pada kemasan makanan oleh ibu rumah tangga di Kota Gorontalo. Penelitian dengan metode survei ini dilakukan dari bulan Juni sampai Agustus 2013. Data dikumpulkan secara potong lintang dengan menggunakan angket. Variabel terikat adalah kepatuhan membaca label pada kemasan makanan yang terdiri dari label informasi nilai gizi, komposisi makanan, masa kedaluwarsa, harga, dan status halal. Variabel bebas adalah usia, tingkat pendidikan, dan keterpaparan dengan media informasi. Besar sampel 262 orang ditentukan secara accidental technique. Analisis data menggunakan uji kai kuadrat. Hasil …

Time Dependent Kernel Density Estimation: A New Parameter Estimation Algorithm, Applications In Time Series Classification And Clustering, Xing Wang

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The Time Dependent Kernel Density Estimation (TDKDE) developed by Harvey & Oryshchenko (2012) is a kernel density estimation adjusted by the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) weighting scheme. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) procedure for estimating the parameters proposed by Harvey & Oryshchenko (2012) is easy to apply but has two inherent problems. In this study, we evaluate the performances of the probability density estimation in terms of the uniformity of Probability Integral Transforms (PITs) on various kernel functions combined with different preset numbers. Furthermore, we develop a new estimation algorithm which can be conducted using Artificial Neural Networks to …

Homeolog Specific Expression Bias, Ronald D. Smith

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Heterogeneous Responses To Viral Infection: Insights From Mathematical Modeling Of Yellow Fever Vaccine, James R. Moore

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Directed Energy Missions For Planetary Defense, Philip Lubin, Gary Hughes, Mike Eskenazi, Kelly Kosmo, Isabella Johansson, Janelle Griswold, Mark Pryor, Hugh O'Neill, Peter Meinhold, Johnathan Suen, Jordan Riley, Qicheng Zhang, Kevin Walsh, Carl Melis, Miikka Kangas, Caio Motta, Travis Brashears

Statistics

Directed energy for planetary defense is now a viable option and is superior in many ways to other proposed technologies, being able to defend the Earth against all known threats. This paper presents basic ideas behind a directed energy planetary defense system that utilizes laser ablation of an asteroid to impart a deflecting force on the target. A conceptual philosophy called DE-STAR, which stands for Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and exploration, is an orbiting stand-off system, which has been described in other papers. This paper describes a smaller, stand-on system known as DE-STARLITE as a reduced-scale version …

Elements Of The Mathematical Formulation Of Quantum Mechanics, Keunjae Go

Senior Honors Papers / Undergraduate Theses

In this paper, we will explore some of the basic elements of the mathematical formulation of quantum mechanics. In the first section, I will list the motivations for introducing a probability model that is quite different from that of the classical probability theory, but still shares quite a few significant commonalities. Later in the paper, I will discuss the quantum probability theory in detail, while paying a brief attention to some of the axioms (by Birkhoff and von Neumann) that illustrate both the commonalities and differences between classical mechanics and quantum mechanics. This paper will end with a presentation of …

Quantifying Transit Access In New York City: Formulating An Accessibility Index For Analyzing Spatial And Social Patterns Of Public Transportation, Maxwell S. Siegel

Theses and Dissertations

This paper aims to analyze accessibility within New York City’s transportation system through creating unique accessibility indices. Indices are detailed and implemented using GIS, analyzing the distribution of transit need and access. Regression analyses are performed highlighting relationships between demographics and accessibility and recommendations for transit expansion are presented.