Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Evaluating Lunch Plan Data In The St. Charles School District (Scsd), Maddy Alexander, Guillermo Bilbao Olarreaga, Duncan Krige, Alyssa Schreiber, Nick Wintz, Wojciech Golik

The Confluence

The SCSD is a public school district in St. Charles, with, on average, 4500 students a year. The SCSD is subdivided into an early childhood center, six elementary schools, two intermediate (5-6,7-8) schools, and two high schools. Vocational schools are also within this district but were not included in this report. The SCSD is concerned with the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on their district’s population and on the number of students that needed assistance with lunch. They have asked Lindenwood’s 2024-25 PIC Math group to analyze their data from the years 2020-25 and identify any trends. Identifying these trends …

Distribution Of New Statistics Of Parking Functions And Their Generalizations, Stephan Wagner, Catherine H. Yan, Mei Yin

Mathematics: Faculty Scholarship

In this paper we present new results on the enumeration of parking functions and labeled forests. We introduce new statistics on parking functions, which are then extended to labeled forests via bijective correspondences. We determine the joint distribution of two statistics on parking functions and their counterparts on labeled forests. Our results on labeled forests also serve to explain the mysterious equidistribution between two seemingly unrelated statistics in parking functions recently identified by Stanley and Yin and give an explicit bijection between the two statistics. Extensions of our techniques are discussed, including joint distribution on further refinement of these new …

Investigating The Connection Between Als Through The Mutation R522s In The Rna Binding Protein, Dennia Estrella-Vargas, Lydia Uptain

Mathematics

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal disease that causes the deterioration of motor neurons , death is usually due to respiratory paralysis. The variant R522S was chosen because it is near a hot spot of pathogenic variants. It is an arginine-to-serine swap, this swap is present in pathogenic variants near the 522 position, such as R514S, R521S, R524S. Recent evidence suggests that arginine-deficiency can influence disease progression.

Teaching Effectiveness On Secondary Mathematics: Evidence From Pisa—Shanghai-China, Ting Shen

Psychological Science Faculty Research & Creative Works

Educational researchers and policymakers around the world have a strong interest in understanding the underlying reasons for the remarkable academic achievement of Chinese students in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). Although teachers have a significant impact on student achievement, empirical evidence on teaching effectiveness in the Chinese education system has been scarce. This study uses the PISA 2012 Shanghai-China data and employs both multilevel models and quantile regression models to investigate effective teaching factors and their differential effects for students at different mathematics achievement levels. The results reveal the importance of cognitive activation and disciplinary climate as consistent, …

On Sharpest Tail Bounds For Functions Of Tail Bounded Random Variables, Stephen Harrison

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

Consider n real/complex, independent/dependent random variables with respective tail bounds and g a measurable function of the r.v.’s. Consider f the “sharpest” tail bound of g (sharpest in the sense, if f were any less, then for some X1, ..., Xn satisfying the conditions, g(X1, ..., Xn) would not satisfy the tail f). Significant research has been done to approximate f often with high accuracy. These results are often of the form, for g in this family, and tail bounds of Xk in this family, f is bounded by some f′ with high accuracy. However, the question “what would it …

Some Results In Thermodynamic Formalism, C. Evans Hedges

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates several key questions at the intersection of dynamical systems, computability theory, and thermodynamic formalism. In the symbolic setting, we establish novel results regarding the statistical properties of equilibrium states, deriving bounds on probabilities of configurations and relating these bounds to the Gibbs property through the homoclinic relation. Additionally, we examine the computability of thermodynamic quantities such as pressure, ground state energy, and residual entropy. We show that topological pressure is computable from above for general subshifts and computable for strongly irreducible shifts, with similar results extending to ground state energy and residual entropy.

Extending beyond subshifts, we …

Decoding The Algorithm: The Mathematics Behind Tiktok’S Short-Form Content Success, Ashley N. Lynch

Honors Scholar Theses

Within the realm of social networks, TikTok has become the central hub for short-form video content. The network’s unique ability to capture individual preferences using predictive analytics has greatly contributed to its massive success, allowing the company to optimize its performance and content personalization. In an age where digital media have such a significant influence on society, it is essential that users develop an understanding of how social network algorithms function to make more informed online decisions. Although TikTok’s technological system is primarily undisclosed, the platform certifiably leverages several key mathematical principles within its algorithm to achieve its core goals …

Integrating Sentiment Analysis In Predictive Models: A Comparative Study On Game Popularity On Steam, Khaleefa Alhemeiri

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past decades, the gaming industry has managed to evolve into a multi-billion-dollar enterprise. Gaming platforms such as Steam foster unprecedented amounts of engagement among players worldwide daily. In this thesis, we investigate the effect of incorporating sentiment-driven metrics, specifically YouTube view counts and positive reviews, into predictive models for game popularity. In addition, by comparing our linear regression sentiment-based approach to the Bayesian hierarchical folded normal model used by De Luisa et al. (2021), we can understand the many differences, strengths, and limitations of each methodology. In our thesis, we focus on three games. Each is of varying …

Mathematics In Contemporary Society, Patrick J. Wallach

Open Educational Resources

Mathematics in Contemporary Society is the textbook that corresponds to MA-321, the course of the same name. The course is designed to provide students with mathematical ideas and methods found in the social sciences, the arts, and in business. Topics will include fundamentals of statistics, scatterplots, graphics in the media, problem solving strategies, dimensional analysis, mathematics in music and art, and mathematical modeling. EXCEL is used to explore real world applications.

Using Probability Theory To Calculate The Odds That Either Candidate Wins The 2024 Presidential Election, Andrew Ruggero

Department of Applied Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

In the U.S., where the electoral college is used to determine the votes of an election, calculating the odds of a president winning is not as simple as looking at the total vote percentages. With each state not exactly having a proportionally linear amount of votes per its population, the total percentage doesn’t mean much. As such, in order to calculate these odds, we must look at a variety of winning combinations per each candidate. First, we must take into account that swing states are the only ones that matter. Defined as a 5% difference between the two main candidates, …

"Who Wrote The Epistle, God Only Knows": A Statistical Authorial Analysis Of Hebrews In Comparison With Pauline And Lukan Literature, Benjamin J. Erickson

Senior Honors Theses

The authorship of Hebrews has been a point of contention for scholars for the past two millennia. While the epistle is traditionally attributed to Paul, many scholars assert that it carries thematic, structural, and stylistic differences from the remainder of his extant epistles; therefore, many other possible authors have been proposed. Of these, only Luke has other New Testament writings. Therefore, this project conducts a statistical comparison of Hebrews to the Pauline and Lukan corpora using stylometric authorial analysis methods. This analysis demonstrates that Hebrews is stylistically closer to Lukan literature than Pauline (but not to a significant degree), and …

Pitching The Use Of Squared And Interaction Terms In Regression Via Baseball Heat Maps, Lucas Chepelsky

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This project will examine the impact of using second-order terms in regression. For illustration, we use an example of regression where a baseball player's three by three heat map, including the height and distance from inside to outside of the pitch, are variables used to predict batting average. We find that second-order terms are crucial in discovering nonlinear relationships and interaction effects in regression models, and maintain that the common practice of using first-order additive models is insufficient.

An Application Of The Pagerank Algorithm To Ncaa Football Team Rankings, Morgan Majors

Honors Theses

We investigate the use of Google’s PageRank algorithm to rank sports teams. The PageRank algorithm is used in web searches to return a list of the websites that are of most interest to the user. The structure of the NCAA FBS football schedule is used to construct a network with a similar structure to the world wide web. Parallels are drawn between pages that are linked in the world wide web with the results of a contest between two sports teams. The teams under consideration here are the members of the 2021 Football Bowl Subdivision. We achieve a total ordering …

Defining Characteristics That Lead To Cost-Efficient Veteran Nba Free Agent Signings, David Mccain

Honors Projects in Mathematics

Throughout the history of the NBA, decisions regarding the signing of free agents have been riddled with complexity. Franchises are tasked with finding out what players will serve as optimal free agent signings prior to seeing them perform within the framework of their team. This study hypothesizes that the adequacy of an NBA free agent signing can be modeled and predicted through the implementation of a machine learning model. The model will learn the necessary information using training and testing data sets that include various player biometrics, game statistics, and financial information. The application of this machine learning model will …

Using A Distributive Approach To Model Insurance Loss, Kayla Kippes

Departmental Honors & Graduate Capstone Projects

Insurance loss is an unpredicted event that stands at the forefront of the insurance industry. Loss in insurance represents the costs or expenses incurred due to a claim. An insurance claim is a request for the insurance company to pay for damage caused to an individual’s property. Loss can be measured by how much money (the dollar amount) has been paid out by the insurance company to repair the damage or it can be measured by the number of claims (claim count) made to the insurance company. Insured events include property damage due to fire, theft, flood, a car accident, …

Electric Vehicle Uptake: What Factors Are Motivating The Shift For College-Aged And Older Groups?, Jake Cardines

Honors Projects in Mathematics

Electric vehicles (EVs) arguably are the most quickly expanding form of transportation as the world races toward a greener future with advanced technology and reduced reliance on fossil fuels. This study analyzes various expected inputs to motivating consumers of particular age groups to purchase EVs, including examination of how the idea of EV ownership is currently perceived and testing which factors influence it positively and negatively. Data collected from 113 survey respondents serves as the basis for determining the responsiveness of potential future EV owners to variables such as vehicle brand and charging availability, electric range, costs associated with purchase …

Length Bias Estimation Of Small Businesses Lifetime, Simeng Li

Honors Theses

Small businesses, particularly restaurants, play a crucial role in the economy by generating employment opportunities, boosting tourism, and contributing to the local economy. However, accurately estimating their lifetimes can be challenging due to the presence of length bias, which occurs when the likelihood of sampling any particular restaurant's closure is influenced by its duration in operation. To address the issue, this study conducts goodness-of-fit tests on exponential/gamma family distributions and employs the Kaplan-Meier method to more accurately estimate the average lifetime of restaurants in Carytown. By providing insights into the challenges of estimating the lifetimes of small businesses, this study …

Changing Nfl Playoff Overtime Rules To Create Equal Opportunities To Win A Game, Matthew Silvia

Honors Projects in Mathematics

The NFL has attempted to create fair overtime rules over the course of the past decade; however, this study is interested in determining what playoff overtime rule (or rules) could the NFL implement to result in outcomes where both teams have a relatively equal chance of winning a game. This study aims to find which overtime rules work best at minimizing the differences between teams who possess the ball first versus teams that kick the ball off to start an overtime period. By collecting various NFL statistics from ESPN.com and FantasyOutsiders.com, this study hopes to run multiple simulations of different …

Utilizing Markov Chains To Estimate Allele Progression Through Generations, Ronit Gandhi

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

All populations display patterns in allele frequencies over time. Some alleles cease to exist, while some grow to become the norm. These frequencies can shift or stay constant based on the conditions the population lives in. If in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, the allele frequencies stay constant. Most populations, however, have bias from environmental factors, sexual preferences, other organisms, etc. We propose a stochastic Markov chain model to study allele progression across generations. In such a model, the allele frequencies in the next generation depend only on the frequencies in the current one.

We use this model to track a recessive allele …

A Comparison Of Logistic, Ridge, And Lasso Regression With Heart Failure Risk Data: Effects Of Sample Size, Predictor Correlation, And Predictor Weight On Outcome Accuracy, Mahmoud M. Aljuhani

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Logistic Regression (LR), LASSO regression, and RIDGE regression are standard classification techniques for predicting a dichotomous output. Since these methods are applied for similar purposes and have different features, it is crucial to evaluate the performance of these methods under different controlled conditions. With this information, researchers can apply the optimal method for specific conditions.

Following previous research, which reported the effects of conditions such as sample size and multicollinearity on the performance of the classification methods, this research focused on the effects of when sample size, level of predictor collinearity, and predictor variable weight are controlled on the performance …

The Efficacy Of The Covid-19 Vaccine In Mississippi, Ilyse Miriam Levy

Honors Theses

The Efficacy of The COVID-19 Vaccine in Mississippi

(Under the direction of Dr. Xin Dang)

By tracking and analyzing fifty-three weeks of COVID-19 data, this thesis analyzes the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine within the State of Mississippi. Over the course of these fifty-three weeks, I have also been able to calculate the confidence intervals for vaccination efficacy and the risk reduction due to vaccination by using data regarding the correlations between deaths and vaccination status, provided to me by the Mississippi Office of Epidemiology. My analysis demonstrates that the COVID-19 vaccine is effective not only in Mississippi but also …

The Biggest Loser: How Tanking In Professional Sports Impacts Fan Perception, Julia Ayres

Honors Projects in Mathematics

Professional sports teams are adored nationwide for their talents and the pride they bring to their city for their efforts. However, not all teams take this responsibility seriously and will lose on purpose, or tank, to gain a higher draft pick in the future. Although the long-term goals of tanking are to help the organization, many people take issue with athletes not putting in their best efforts in every game. Teams in both the NBA and NFL are guilty of tanking to gain better draft picks but not all have found success in this process. This leads to important questions …

Vampires And Other Diseases: Stochastic Infection Dynamics Of Small Populations, Marijn Jaarsma

Honors Projects in Science and Technology

Mathematical models are powerful tools often applied in the field of epidemiology. The type and shape of the model will differ between different types of diseases. In this study, stochastic dynamical models are applied to the entertaining example of vampires, and the results of this analysis are compared to real-life diseases with small populations of infected. The data used comes from pop-culture depictions of vampires in literature, television shows, movies, and fan pages associated with these depictions. The aim of this study is to serve as an educational tool for modeling diseases with small populations to predict and control the …

Contributions To The Teaching And Learning Of Fluid Mechanics, Ashwin Vaidya

Department of Mathematics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This issue showcases a compilation of papers on fluid mechanics (FM) education, covering different sub topics of the subject. The success of the first volume [1] prompted us to consider another follow-up special issue on the topic, which has also been very successful in garnering an impressive variety of submissions.

As a classical branch of science, the beauty and complexity of fluid dynamics cannot be overemphasized. This is an extremely well-studied subject which has now become a significant component of several major scientific disciplines ranging from aerospace engineering, astrophysics, atmospheric science (including climate modeling), biological and biomedical science …

We’Re Here To Get You There: A Statistical Analysis Of Bridgewater State University’S Transit System, Abigail Adams

Honors Program Theses and Projects

Bridgewater State University first established its on-campus transportation service in January of 1984. While it began only running as an on-campus service for students throughout the day, the service grew to expand by offering an off-campus connection to the neighboring city of Brockton and absorbed the night service system from the campus safety team. As BSU Transit continues to grow, the organization is seeking ways to improve their overall service and better prepare their fleet and driver pool to accommodate this growth. The purpose of this research is to analyze trends among the data collected by BSU Transit and assist …

An Exploratory Analysis Of The Bgsu Learning Commons Student Usage Data, Emily Eskuri

Honors Projects

The purpose of this study was to explore past student usage data in individualized tutoring sessions from the Learning Commons from two academic years. The Bowling Green State University (BGSU) Learning Commons is a learning assistance center that offers various services, such as individualized tutoring, math assistance, writing assistance, study hours, and academic coaching. There have been limited research studies into how big data and analytics can have an impact in higher education, especially research utilizing predictive analytics.

This project applied analytics to individualized tutoring data in the Learning Commons to create a better understanding of why those trends happen …

Statistical And Machine Learning Approaches To Depressive Disorders Among Adults In The United States: From Factor Discovery To Prediction Evaluation, Minhwa Lee

Senior Independent Study Theses

According to the National Institutes of Mental Health (NIMH), depressive disorders (or major depression) are considered one of the most common and serious health risks in the United States. Our study focuses on extracting non-medical factors of depressive disorders diagnosis, such as overall health states, health risk behaviors, demography, and healthcare access, using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data set collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 2018.

We set the two objectives of our study about depressive disorders diagnosis in the United States as follows. First, we aim to utilize machine learning algorithms …

Option Implied Volatility's Predictability On Monthly Stock Returns, Hung T. Dao

Senior Independent Study Theses

Since the trading of options is based on underlying stocks, it is reasonable to assume that information from the options market can be used to explain the returns in the stock market. Our independent study investigates the relationship between options implied volatility and stock returns. Previous studies have found significant results in using implied volatility in predicting stock returns. This paper provides a discussion of such studies, the theoretical framework for the research topic, and the Black-Scholes model, which is famous for its application in implied volatility calculation. Monthly returns of 20 large US firms are regressed against implied volatility …

Mathematical Modeling: Instructor And Student Resources, Marnie Phipps, Patty Wagner

Mathematics Ancillary Materials

This collection of student and instructor materials for Mathematical Modeling contains lesson plans, lecture slides, homework, learning goals, and student notes for the following major topics:

• Linear Functions
• Quadratic Functions
• Exponential Functions
• Logarithmic Functions

This is a materials update for a collection of materials created for a Round Nine ALG Textbook Transformation Grant.

Teaching A University Course On The Mathematics Of Gambling, Stewart N. Ethier, Fred M. Hoppe

UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal

Courses on the mathematics of gambling have been offered by a number of colleges and universities, and for a number of reasons. In the past 15 years, at least seven potential textbooks for such a course have been published. In this article we objectively compare these books for their probability content, their gambling content, and their mathematical level, to see which ones might be most suitable, depending on student interests and abilities. This is not a book review (e.g., none of the books is recommended over others) but rather an essay offering advice about which topics to include in a …