Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Statistical Analysis Of Log Transformation Effectiveness In Air Traffic Movement Forecasting During Covid-19 In South Africa, John Lehlaka Masekoameng

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering

This study evaluates the effectiveness of log transformation in enhancing multiple regression models used to forecast air traffic movements (ATMs) in South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using 60 monthly observations from October 2016 to September 2021, the analysis incorporates variables such as revenue, lockdown levels, COVID-19 metrics, exchange rates, gross domestic product, and population. Two models are compared: one using raw ATMs and another with log-transformed ATMs as the dependent variable.

While the untransformed model shows stronger explanatory power (R² = 0.904, adjusted R² = 0.891) compared to the log-transformed model (R² = 0.772, adjusted R² = 0.741), the …

The Effectiveness Of Remote Patient Monitoring In Reducing The Risk Of Rehospitalizations In Covid-19 Patients: A Meta-Analysis, Dela Riadi, Indang Trihandini, Dewi Nirmala Sari, Fikri Wijaya

Kesmas

An integrated analysis of various Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM) studies is needed to evaluate the reduction rate of the risk of rehospitalization in COVID-19 patients. This meta-analysis aimed to provide an overview of the effectiveness of RPM. A literature search through online databases (PubMed, Science Direct, Scopus, ProQuest, and Embase) was conducted from 2019 to 2022. After using the Cochrane Collaboration's risk of bias tool, five studies on COVID-19 were selected. Based on the data collected from 2,685 participants (intervention = 1,060, control = 1,625), the use of RPM was found to reduce rehospitalization by 0.56 times compared to not …

Prevalence Of Low Back Pain Among Office Workers During The Covid-19 Pandemic In Various Countries: A Systematic Review, Yosephine Roma Intan, Ririn Arminsih Wulandari, Popy Yuniar

Kesmas

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the implementation of work from home policies in almost all parts of the world. This policy has increased the onset of musculoskeletal disorders in workers, such as low back pain (LBP). This study aimed to examine the prevalence of LBP among office workers during the COVID-19 pandemic after implementing WFH policies. This study was performed using data from various countries to determine the relationship between LBP and several risk factors, specifically age, sex, physical activity, ergonomic factors, as well as work environment factors such as temperature, humidity, lighting, noise, and work duration. A systematic …

Association Between Lifetime Interpersonal Violence And Post– Covid-19 Condition Among Women In Kentucky, 2020-2022, Ayşe Güler, Heather M. Bush, Katie Schill, Nurlan Kussainov, Ann L. Coker

Biostatistics Faculty Publications

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic increased the risk of interpersonal violence. We investigated the association between lifetime interpersonal violence experience and risk of post–COVID-19 condition (the persistence of symptoms of COVID-19 and severity of health problems associated with COVID-19 that last a few weeks, months, or years) among women with lifetime interpersonal violence experience.   Methods: Women participants aged ≥18 years in Kentucky’s Wellness, Health & You—COVID-19 study completed online quantitative surveys about the impacts of the pandemic, developing COVID-19, and symptoms of post–COVID-19 condition. We conducted cross-sectional analyses estimating rate ratios of developing COVID-19 and symptoms of post–COVID-19 condition during the …

Sars-Cov-2 Detection And Persistence In A Remote Amazonian Settlement, Glauco M. Silva, Roberto C. Ilacqua, Franciely G. Gonçalves, Carla M. Santana, Felipe T. Jordão, Paula R. Prist, Melissa S. Nolan Ph.D., Mph, Andreia F. Brilhante, Marcia A. Sperança, Gabriel Z. Laporta

Faculty Publications

Background: COVID-19 continues to pose a major global health challenge. Despite its geographic distance from Brazil’s major urban centers, Acre state has experienced notable outbreaks. This study assessed the detection and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in the rural settlement of Santa Luzia, located in the remote municipality of Cruzeiro do Sul, Acre state, Brazil. Methods: In July 2022, a cross-sectional survey was conducted at 40 sites from an ongoing environmental study, selected by deforestation patterns and proximity to health posts. Saliva samples were collected from residents aged 5–90 years, followed by nucleic acid extraction and multiplex RT-qPCR for SARS-CoV-2 detection. Results: …

Variation And Predictors Of Covid-19 Mortality In Hospitalized Cases In West Sumatra Province, Indonesia: A Retrospective Observational Study, Defriman Djafri, Ade Suzana Eka Putri, Yudi Pradipta

Kesmas

During 2020, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, different Indonesian provinces had different numbers of COVID-19 infections and fatalities, particularly in West Sumatra Province. This study aimed to investigate the variation of confirmed COVID-19 cases and determine predictors of mortality in hospitalized patients across districts in West Sumatra Province. A retrospective observational study was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. From March 2020 to June 2021, 46,005 confirmed cases were collected in the province, of which 42,308 were hospitalized and analyzed. Confirmed cases and deaths were compared by geographic location using spatial analysis. The risk predictors of death were estimated using …

Disparities And Protective Factors In Pandemic-Related Mental Health Outcomes: A Louisiana-Based Study, Ariane L. Rung, Evrim Oral, Tyler Prusisz, Edward S. Peters

School of Public Health Faculty Publications

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a wide-ranging impact on mental health. Diverse populations experienced the pandemic differently, highlighting pre-existing inequalities and creating new challenges in recovery. Understanding the effects across diverse populations and identifying protective factors is crucial for guiding future pandemic preparedness. The objectives of this study were to (1) describe the specific COVID-19-related impacts associated with general well-being, (2) identify protective factors associated with better mental health outcomes, and (3) assess racial disparities in pandemic impact and protective factors. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of Louisiana residents was conducted in summer 2020, yielding a sample of 986 Black …

Monetary Policy Impact On Stock Returns For Selected South Asian Countries, Neluka Devpura, Paresh Kumar Narayan, Navin Perera

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

In this paper, we examine the monetary policy impact on the stock market returns and volatility for four major South Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka). We test our hypothesis that monetary policy influences both the first and second order of stock returns by using monthly data. The short-term interest rate and the Treasury bill rate are employed as proxies for monetary policy. Controlling for industrial production, inflation, exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar), US interest rate, and money supply, our findings indicate that there exists a statistically significant impact of short-term interest rates on stock returns only …

Gender-Specific Mental Health Outcomes In Central America: A Natural Experiment, Thea Nagasuru

Computer Science Summer Fellows

While COVID lockdown measures have had varying effects on the mental health of different demographics, several bodies of research have noted their disparate effect on women. Why is women's mental health more negatively impacted by lockdown measures, and how much more are they impacted than men? How can we predict and mitigate these negative effects on women? This paper aims to contribute to answering those questions by comparing COVID stringency measures and their effect on the gap in depression rates between men and women in two neighboring countries: Nicaragua and Honduras.

Intimacy Without The Chance Of Heartbreak For Richer, For Poorer, In Sickness & In Health, Cynthia Nguyen

Honors Projects

The present study investigates the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumption of porn, shifts in the production of porn consumed between men and women, and the breakdown of any pattern in adult content via film, pictures, and audio. A quantitative approach was done by using R to analyze data pulled off of Pornhub, Reddit’s GoneWildAudio subreddit, and Archive of Our Own from 2018 to 2023. Statistical inference and modeling is used to attempt to find a pattern in the production of online porn across three mediums over several years before, during, and after the pandemic. Regardless of events …

(R2068) A Study To Assess The Stress On Students Of Higher Education During Covid-19 Using Fuzzy Logic System, Monika Rathore, Uday Raj Singh, Sanjeev Kumar

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted various sectors, with higher education being one of the most severely affected. Students in higher education faced numerous challenges transitioning to online learning, leading to a surge in mental health issues. The abrupt shift in the mode of education and the inability of many students to adapt exacerbated their mental health struggles. This, in turn, contributed to a notable rise in student suicide rates in India during the pandemic-induced isolation period. Addressing this critical socio-psychological issue requires effective strategies for stress detection and management. The proposed study employed the Online Education Stress Scale (Online ESS) …

Implementation Of Digital Health In Addressing Global Threats: Lessons From The Use Of Technology During Covid-19 Pandemic In Indonesia, Naili Shifa, Anisa Tiasari, Kemal N. Siregar

Kesmas

This research conducted a systematic literature review to explore the implementation of digital health in Indonesia, focusing on the digital health policies, usage during the COVID-19 pandemic, benefits, and lessons learned. The study identified 10 relevant journals through database searches and analyzed the trends in publication, productive journals, and top institutions involved in digital health research. The findings revealed an increasing interest in digital health, with a growing number of published articles from 2021 to 2023. ScienceDirect emerged as the most productive journal, followed by PubMed and MDPI. The University of Indonesia and the University of Gajah Mada were the …

Advanced Techniques In Time Series Forecasting: From Deterministic Models To Deep Learning, Xue Bai

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation discusses three instances of temporal prediction, applied to population dynamics and deep learning.

In population modeling, dynamic processes are frequently represented by systems of differential equations, allowing for the analysis of various phenomena. The first application explores modeling cloned hematopoiesis in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) via a nonlinear system of differential equations. By tracking the evolution of different cell compartments, including cycling and quiescent stem cells, progenitor cells, differentiated cells, and terminally differentiated cells, the model captures the transition from normal hematopoiesis to the chronic and accelerated-acute phases of CML. Three distinct non-zero steady states are identified, representing …

The Public Health Impact Of Paxlovid Covid-19 Treatment In The United States, Yuan Bai, Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Eric H. Y. Lau, Isaac Fung, Petter Holme, Ben Cowling, Alison Galvani, Robert Krug, Lauren Ancel Meyers

Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Environmental Health Sciences: Faculty Publications

The antiviral drug Paxlovid has been shown to rapidly reduce viral load. Coupled with vaccination, timely administration of safe and effective antivirals could provide a path towards managing COVID-19 without restrictive non-pharmaceutical measures. Here, we estimate the population-level impacts of expanding treatment with Paxlovid in the US using a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that incorporates the within-host viral load dynamics of the Omicron variant. We find that, under a low transmission scenario (Re∼1.2) treating 20% of symptomatic cases would be life and cost saving, leading to an estimated 0.26 (95% CrI: 0.03, 0.59) million hospitalizations averted, 30.61 (95% …

(R2025) Improving The Lda Linear Discriminant Analysis Method By Eliminating Redundant Variables For The Diagnosis Of Covid-19 Patients, Kianoush Fathi Vajargah, Hamid Mottaghi Golshan, Fazel Badakhshan Farahabadi

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

Nowadays, with the increase in data production speed, the process of data analysis has faced many problems because this big data is often accompanied by plug-in data and redundant data. Therefore, the use of dimensional methods in the pre-data analysis stage is necessary. In data mining, dimensional reduction is one of the most important steps in data pre-processing. Principal component analysis (PCA) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) are often used to reduce dimensions in data mining. The LDA method is a monitored and controlled method but the PCA is not controlled method. When the number of samples in classes is …

Observational Study Of Organisational Responses Of 17 Us Hospitals Over The First Year Of The Covid-19 Pandemic, Esther K. Choo, Matthew Strehlow, Marina Del Rios, Evrim Oral, Ruth Pobee, Andrew Nugent, Stephen C. Lim, Christian Hext, Sarah Newhall, Diana Ko, Srihari V. Chari, Amy Wilson, Joshua J. Baugh, David Callaway, Mucio Kit Delgado, Zoe Glick, Christian J. Graulty, Nicholas Hall, Abdusebur Jemal, Madhav Kc, Aditya Mahadevan, Milap Mehta, Andrew C. Meltzer, Dar'ya Pozhidayeva, Daniel Resnick-Ault

School of Public Health Faculty Publications

Objectives The COVID-19 pandemic has required significant modifications of hospital care. The objective of this study was to examine the operational approaches taken by US hospitals over time in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, setting and participants This was a prospective observational study of 17 geographically diverse US hospitals from February 2020 to February 2021. Outcomes and analysis We identified 42 potential pandemic-related strategies and obtained week-to-week data about their use. We calculated descriptive statistics for use of each strategy and plotted percent uptake and weeks used. We assessed the relationship between strategy use and hospital type, geographic region …

A Pharmacoepidemiological Study Of Myocarditis And Pericarditis Following The First Dose Of Mrna Covid-19 Vaccine In Europe, Joana Tome, Logan Cowan, Isaac Fung

Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Environmental Health Sciences: Faculty Publications

This study assessed the myocarditis and pericarditis reporting rate of the first dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in Europe. Myocarditis and pericarditis data pertinent to mRNA COVID19 vaccines (1 January 2021–11 February 2022) from EudraVigilance database were combined with European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)’s vaccination tracker data. The reporting rate was expressed as events (occurring within 28 days of the first dose) per 1 million individuals vaccinated. An observed-to-expected (OE) analysis quantified excess risk for myocarditis or pericarditis following the first mRNA COVID-19 vaccination. The reporting rate of myocarditis per 1 million individuals vaccinated was 17.27 (95% …

Prevalence Of Sars-Cov-2 Antibodies In Liberty University Student Population, Emily Bonus

Senior Honors Theses

In 2020, the virus SARS-CoV-2 gained attention as it spread around the world. Its antibodies are poorly understood, and little research focuses on those with few COVID-19 complications yet large numbers of close contacts: university students. This longitudinal study recorded SARS-CoV-2 antibody presence in 107 undergraduate Liberty University students twice during early 2021. After extensive data cleaning and the application of various statistical tests and ANOVAs, the data seems to show that in the case of COVID-19 infections, SARS-CoV-2 IgM antibodies are immediately produced, and then IgG antibodies follow later. However, the COVID-19 vaccine causes the production of both IgM …

Presidential Vote Share And Covid-19 Vaccination Rate In Indonesia: A District-Level Cross-Sectional Ecological Study, Gede Benny Setia Wirawan, Ni Luh Zallila Gustina, Ivy Cerelia Valerie, I Gusti Ayu Indah Pradnyani Rs, Muchamad Zaenal Arifin, Pande Putu Januraga

Kesmas

Political affiliation has been reported as a determinant of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in some countries, although few studies have examined the Asian context. This study aims to fill this gap by employing an ecological study design using Indonesian regions as data points. Political affiliation was represented by incumbent President Jokowi’s vote share in the 2019 presidential election. Potential confounders included population density, human development index, availability of hospitals and primary health care, 2019–2020 economic growth, COVID-19 mortality rate, and proportion of Muslims in the population. The final analysis included 201 out of 501 districts and cities in Indonesia. Controlling for …

The Effect Of Covid-19-Related Occupational Stress And Burnout In Referral Hospital Nurses, Yulastri Arif, Masyithah Fadhani

Kesmas

Nurses' continuous contribution to patient health makes them prone to occupational stress, which has been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Occupational stress that lasts for a long time and is not resolved may cause burnout. Burnout experienced by nurses can impact patients, hospital services, and themselves. This study aimed to determine the effect of occupational stress on the incidence of nurse burnout during the COVID-19 pandemic. It used a quantitative approach with a cross-sectional design. The study sample was 235 nurses in six COVID-19 referral hospitals in West Sumatra from a proportional random sampling technique. Data were collected using a …

Poisson Regression Model With Application To Wastewater Surveillance Under A Threshold Linear Mixed Model For Covid-19 Sensitivity Rates, Norou Diawara, Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Kyle Curtis, Raul Gonzalez, Nancy Welch, Cynthia Jackson, Rekha Singh, David Jurgens, Sasanka Adikari, Omotomilola Jegede

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

A Threshold Linear Mixed Model (TLMM) has been developed to identify specific thresholds based on wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations, which reflect COVID-19 cases. The thresholds can guide decisions regarding public health responses and prevention measures. To assess the practical application of TLMM, a simple simulation was conducted using a sample size of 100 and 500 replications. The simulation allowed for comparing parameter estimators by assessing bias and standard deviation and the root of the mean square error. The model and estimation procedures were applied to reported wastewater and clinic data to test its application for real-world scenarios. Our results demonstrated …

Predictors Of Covid-19 Vaccination Rate In Usa: A Machine Learning Approach, Syed M. I. Osman, Ahmed Sabit

WCBT Faculty Publications

In this study, we examine state-level features and policies that are most important in achieving a threshold level vaccination rate to curve the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. We employ CHAID, a decision tree algorithm, on three different model specifications to answer this question based on a dataset that includes all the states in the United States. Workplace travel emerges as the most important predictor; however, the governors’ political affiliation (PA) replaces it in a more conservative feature set that includes economic features and the growth rate of COVID-19 cases. We also employ several alternative algorithms as a robustness check. …

Examining The Impact Of Covid-19 On The Education And Development Of American Students, Riley Fortin '25

Student Research

After the COVID-19 pandemic, the vast majority of American children have fallen behind on core subjects due to the ultimate ineffectiveness of remote learning. This study attempts to discover the degree to which children have fallen behind through the trends in the National Association of Educational Procurement’s two most recent testing years. A database accessed from Google has been analyzed, filtered by state and visualized in tables in order to indicate any possible trends as a result of remote learning brought on by the pandemic. By looking at data in seven different states across the country, there is a notable …

Evidence-Based Study: The Effect Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On Post-Secondary Enrollment And Chosen Fields Of Study, Hannah Fields '25

Student Research

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in March of 2020 derailed educational systems at all levels. Specifically, at the post-secondary level, the pandemic sent many students online or forced them to take a fifth year to complete their degrees. As a result, post-secondary enrollment rates are likely to have dropped to reflect these changing post-COVID views surrounding education. Additionally, changing viewpoints about the essentiality of certain jobs and roles changed the chosen fields of study of these same students. Data for this study was collected by way of a short-scale meta-analysis, and enrollment rates were split …

Association Between The Health Belief Model, Exercise, And Nutrition Behaviors During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Keagan Kiely, Bill Mase, Andrew R. Hansen, Jessica S. Schwind

Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Environmental Health Sciences: Faculty Publications

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected our nation’s health further than the infection it causes. Physical activity levels and dietary intake have suffered while individuals grapple with the changes in behavior to reduce viral transmission. With unique nuances regarding the access to physical activity and nutrition during the pandemic, the constructs of Health Belief Model (HBM) may present themselves differently in nutrition and exercise behaviors compared to precautions implemented to reduce viral transmission studied in previous research. The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent of exercise and nutritional behavior change during the COVID-19 pandemic and explain the …

Functional Data Analysis Of Covid-19, Nichole L. Fluke

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

This thesis deals with Functional Data Analysis (FDA) on COVID data. The Data involves counts for new COVID cases, hospitalized COVID patients, and new COVID deaths. The data used is for all the states and regions in the United States. The data starts in March 1^st, 2020 and goes through March 31^st, 2021. The FDA smooths the data and looks to see if there are similarities or differences between the states and regions in the data. The data also shows which states and regions stand out from the others and which ones are similar. Also shown …

Cov-Inception: Covid-19 Detection Tool Using Chest X-Ray, Aswini Thota, Ololade Awodipe, Rashmi Patel

SMU Data Science Review

Since the pandemic started, researchers have been trying to find a way to detect COVID-19 which is a cost-effective, fast, and reliable way to keep the economy viable and running. This research details how chest X-ray radiography can be utilized to detect the infection. This can be for implementation in Airports, Schools, and places of business. Currently, Chest imaging is not a first-line test for COVID-19 due to low diagnostic accuracy and confounding with other viral pneumonia. Different pre-trained algorithms were fine-tuned and applied to the images to train the model and the best model obtained was fine-tuned InceptionV3 model …

Sars-Cov-2 Antibody Seroprevalence In Jakarta, Indonesia, Iwan Ariawan, Hafizah Jusril, Muhammad N Farid, Pandu Riono, Wiji Wahyuningsih, Widyastuti Widyastuti, Dwi Oktavia T L Handayani, Endang Sri Wahyuningsih, Rebekka Daulay, Retno Henderiawati, Safarina G. Malik, Rintis Noviyanti, Leily Trianty, Nadia Fadila, Khin Saw Aye Myint, Frilasita A. Yudhaputri, Neeraja Venkateswaran, Kodumudi Venkateswaran, Venkatachalam Udhayakumar, William A. Hawley, Juliette Morgan, Paul M. Pronyk

Kesmas

The SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in low- and middle-income countries remain poorly understood. This study aimed to estimate the SARS-CoV-2 antibodies seroprevalence in Jakarta, Indonesia, and to increase knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in urban settings. A population-based serosurvey among individuals aged one year or older was conducted in Jakarta. Employing a multistage sampling design, samples were stratified by district, slum, and non-slum residency, sex, and age group. Blood samples were tested for IgG against three different SARS-CoV-2 antigens. Seroprevalence was estimated after applying sample weights and adjusting for cluster characteristics. In March 2021, this study collected 4,919 respondents. The weighted estimate …

Machine Learning Model Comparison And Arma Simulation Of Exhaled Breath Signals Classifying Covid-19 Patients, Aaron Christopher Segura

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

This study compared the performance of machine learning models in classifying COVID-19 patients using exhaled breath signals and simulated datasets. Ground truth classification was determined by the gold standard Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test results. A residual bootstrapped method generated the simulated datasets by fitting signal data to Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. Classification models included neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, naïve Bayes, random forest, and support vector machines. A Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) study was performed to determine if reducing signal features would improve the classification models performance using Gini Importance scoring for the two classes. The top 25% of …

Regression Analysis Of Resilience And Covid-19 In Idaho Counties, Ishrat Zaman

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

Global pandemic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has serious harmful effects on our day-to-day lives. To overcome challenges such as this, critical preparedness, readiness, and response actions are required. This thesis uses estimates of community resilience available through the CRE Tool, published by the US Census Bureau, and COVID19 cases published by John Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center for Idaho counties. Simple linear regression analysis was performed to identify a correlation between COVID-19 cases and deaths in Idaho counties and measures of their resilience. Understanding this correlation could lead to better estimation and prediction of the effect of disasters in Idaho’s counties. …