Statistics and Probability Commons^™

When Three Points Aren't Enough: Parameter Estimation In Newton's Law Of Cooling, Alberto A. Condori, Cara D. Brooks, Madeline R. Goldberg

CODEE Journal

We begin with a paradoxical three-point problem where the standard parameter estimation formula fails because temperature data must satisfy a concavity condition reflecting Newton's Law of Cooling's exponential structure. Although a closed-form solution for A exists for equally-spaced measurements, high sensitivity to error motivates the use of overdetermined systems with many measurements. The "profiling over A" technique transforms this three-parameter nonlinear problem into a sequence of simple linear regressions, providing computational efficiency and conceptual transparency. This approach can be generalized to many parameter estimation problems in science and engineering, making it a valuable tool for undergraduates interested in applied mathematics. …

Let's Play Uno! Training Mathematical Thinking With An Inclusive Card Game, Thierry Meyrath, Clara-Ioana Mincu, Antonella Perucca

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

We explore probability exercises based on the game UNO. Excluding the Wild cards, the deck contains precisely 100 cards, which makes it convenient to express probabilities as percentages. We discuss the mathematical relation between cards that can be played after other cards. We also propose an algebraic exercise that relates several quantities, such as the number of cards left in the losing player’s hand. Finally, we argue that UNO is a very inclusive game: it is logistically easy to play, allows for players of different skill levels, and can be adapted to meet special needs. Beyond being playful exercises, our …

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Interpretable Sample Uncertainty Measures For Ranked-Choice Election Polls, Jason Liang

CMC Senior Theses

Polling results from traditional single-choice plurality elections are readily interpretable. Simple frequentist population parameters are estimated, including each candidate’s total support and the size of the front runner's lead. If the point estimate for the size of the front runner's lead exceeds the margin of error of the lead, we can conclude that the poll shows a statistically significant front runner. However, the interpretability of these population statistics disappears when applied to ranked-choice voting elections. Because ballots rank multiple candidates and candidates are eliminated in rounds, simple population-wide parameters are not well-defined. In RCV elections, a candidate’s ability to win …

Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies volatility modeling in the context of risk parity portfolio construction. I compare three risk parity portfolios that differ only in their underlying volatility model: a historical covariance baseline, a Bayesian stochastic volatility model, and a GRU–GARCH hybrid neural network. Using daily returns on Kenneth French’s five industry portfolios from January 2016 through December 2025, I construct monthly rebalanced portfolios under each model, with the SV and GRU forecasts embedded in hybrid covariance matrices that combine forecasted volatilities with rolling historical correlations. The results document a divergence between forecast accuracy and portfolio performance: the SV model is the …

Rank Rebalancing In Commodity And Foreign Exchange Markets, Prateek D. Vyas

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis empirically tests the rank-rebalancing mechanism of Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT) across commodity futures, foreign exchange futures, and equity ETFs. The Reverse Price-Weighted strategy (RPW) assigns, to each asset, the market weight of the asset at the opposite price rank, and generates an annualized excess return of 2.90% over the price-weighted (MKT) commodity benchmark, during the period of November 1977 to October 2025 (HAC t = 2.058, p = 0.040). The differential Sharpe ratio (dSharpe) of 0.245 is confirmed by a stationary block bootstrap, with a 𝑝-value of 0.015, and factor regressions controlling for carry, momentum, and value yield …

Optimizing Decision-Making In A Cerebral Palsy Model Using Reinforcement Learning, Richard Ampah

Pitzer Senior Theses

This study presents an original interdisciplinary investigation into how reinforcement learning (RL) can model motor and cognitive defects and potentially improve motor and cognitive functions in individuals with cerebral palsy (CP), a non-progressive neurological disorder that impairs movement and adaptability. Integrating computational neuroscience and machine learning, the research applies policy gradient methods and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to simulate adaptive learning in agents with and without CP-related constraints.

The central aim is to compare the cumulative rewards of optimal policies, derived from value iteration, and human-like learning policies using the REINFORCE algorithm, both with and without the Bellman baseline. The …

“Regression To The Mean”: The Confluence Of Eugenics And Statistics In The 19th And 20th Centuries, Emrys G. King

Pomona Senior Theses

The work of this thesis is twofold — first, qualitatively characterizing the confluence between the British eugenics and statistics movements in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and second, quantitatively analyzing the effect of this foundation on pedagogical materials in the growing field of statistics between 1880 and 1970. Towards the first goal, the history of the method of least squares, state statistics, and positive and negative eugenics are outlined, followed by a close reading of the foundational texts authored by Francis Galton and Karl Pearson that introduced linear regression. Towards the latter goal, English-language statistics textbooks published between …

Integrating Sentiment Analysis In Predictive Models: A Comparative Study On Game Popularity On Steam, Khaleefa Alhemeiri

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past decades, the gaming industry has managed to evolve into a multi-billion-dollar enterprise. Gaming platforms such as Steam foster unprecedented amounts of engagement among players worldwide daily. In this thesis, we investigate the effect of incorporating sentiment-driven metrics, specifically YouTube view counts and positive reviews, into predictive models for game popularity. In addition, by comparing our linear regression sentiment-based approach to the Bayesian hierarchical folded normal model used by De Luisa et al. (2021), we can understand the many differences, strengths, and limitations of each methodology. In our thesis, we focus on three games. Each is of varying …

Forecasting Equity Betas Using Option-Implied Moments, Ivan Kolesnikov

CMC Senior Theses

Traditional beta estimates are constructed from historical stock‑and‑market returns and therefore adjust only as fast as realized data accrue. This thesis investigates whether the forward‑looking information embedded in equity‑option prices can enhance beta forecasts. Using near‑end‑of‑day quotes for 236 S&P 500 firms between 2007 and 2024, I extract risk‑neutral variance and skewness, construct five alternative beta estimators (historical, option‑implied, and three hybrids), and evaluate them against realized betas over six‑, twelve‑, and twenty‑four‑month windows. Rolling‑OLS beta remains the most accurate benchmark at short horizons, yet option‑implied moments add economically and statistically significant value when systematic exposure is expected to change …

Analyzing Political Sentiment On Micro-Blogging Data: A Lexicon And Machine Learning Approach To The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, Ava Grey

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores the trends in sentiment towards U.S. presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump through micro-blogging social media text during the five months leading up to the election. Two datasets of varying sizes and origins were used to contextualize and validate analysis findings. The analyses include both a lexicon-based approach and a machine learning predictive method. Common sentiment analysis techniques like term frequency, term frequency inverse, various lexicons, and n-grams were utilized during the lexicon approach. During the modeling, a random forest was utilized in addition to the methods used during the lexicon approach. Results showed that overall …

Oh Statistics!, Heather L. Cook

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

This poem was written about statistics and the usefulness thereof.

Mpt And Capm Mismeasure Risk, Gary N. Smith

Pomona Economics

Mean-variance analysis and the capital asset pricing model provide many useful insights for investors who want to measure and manage risk. However, their focus on short-term returns is of limited use and potentially misleading for investors with long horizons. A value investing approach suggests that risk might be better measured by long-run uncertainty about asset income than by short-run uncertainty about asset prices.

Teacher Resilience: Validating An Instrument In The Us Context, Joy Mccreary

CGU Theses & Dissertations

The research surrounding teacher resilience is an emerging field, and the cultivation of instruments that measure teacher resilience should be bolstered. Specifically, there is a need for the creation of an instrument to be used in the United States. To address this need, I piloted the Multidimensional Teachers’ Resilience Scale (Mansfield & Wosnitza, 2015; Peixoto et al., 2020) in the US. The Multidimensional Teachers’ Resilience Scale (MTRS) comprises 29 items on four dimensions of resilience (professional, motivational, social, and emotional). The MTRS shows decent reliability and validity, but also demonstrates a need for a stronger instrument to be developed. As …

Evaluation Of Imputation Methods Focusing On Categorical Outcomes, Nadia Bernardo Mendoza

CGU Theses & Dissertations

In general, standard statistical analysis models typically rely on completely observed cases, excluding incomplete rows from the dataset. This approach poses particular challenges when the objective is to predict a rare outcome, especially when some of the ob servations with the rare outcome are incomplete. In such cases, the available information to support the model in predicting this event is reduces. Theoretically correct models may pre dict all instances in the majority class achieving high accuracy, but fail in predicting the rare cases, which are often the most interesting ones. Therefore, it is crucial to make the most of all …

Synergetic Effects Of Democracy And Economic Development On Income Inequality And The Role Of Relative Political Capacity, Nazif Sali

CGU Theses & Dissertations

Diving into the complex dynamics of income inequality, this dissertation studies the multifaceted relationships between democracy, economic development, and inequality, placing a spotlight on the mediating influence of Relative Political Capacity (RPC). Uncovering the pivotal role of RPC as democracies advance and economies progress, this research navigates the contours of income inequality. By dissecting distinct sub-samples of OECD and non-OECD countries, nuanced insights surface. Employing robust methodologies such as ordinary least squares regressions and fixed effects analysis, I argue that targeted policies addressing inequality can not only foster inclusive economic growth but also fortify the foundations of democratic institutions. As …

Exploring Parameter Sensitivity Analysis In Mathematical Modeling With Ordinary Differential Equations, Viktoria Savatorova

CODEE Journal

This paper presents an exploration into parameter sensitivity analysis in mathematical modeling using ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Taking the first steps in understanding local sensitivity analysis through the direct differential method and global sensitivity analysis using metrics like Pearson, Spearman, PRCC, and Sobol’, we provide readers with a basic understanding of parameter sensitivity analysis for mathematical modeling using ODEs. As an illustrative application, the system of differential equations modeling population dynamics of several fish species with harvest considerations is utilized. The results of employing local and global sensitivity analysis are compared, shedding light on the strengths and limitations of each …

The "Benfordness" Of Bach Music, Chadrack Bantange, Darby Burgett, Luke Haws, Sybil Prince Nelson

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

In this paper we analyze the distribution of musical note frequencies in Hertz to see whether they follow the logarithmic Benford distribution. Our results show that the music of Johann Sebastian Bach and Johann Christian Bach is Benford distributed while the computer-generated music is not. We also find that computer-generated music is statistically less Benford distributed than human- composed music.

Math And Democracy, Kimberly A. Roth, Erika L. Ward

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

Math and Democracy is a math class containing topics such as voting theory, weighted voting, apportionment, and gerrymandering. It was first designed by Erika Ward for math master’s students, mostly educators, but then adapted separately by both Erika Ward and Kim Roth for a general audience of undergraduates. The course contains materials that can be explored in mathematics classes from those for non-majors through graduate students. As such, it serves students from all majors and allows for discussion of fairness, racial justice, and politics while exploring mathematics that non-major students might not otherwise encounter. This article serves as a guide …

The Effect Of Age, Syntax Complexity, And Cognitive Ability On The Rate Of Semantic Illusions, Sara Anne Goring

CGU Theses & Dissertations

Semantic illusions are recognition errors that occur when an individual fails to notice that information contradicts their prior knowledge (Barton & Sanford, 1993; Erickson & Mattson, 1981). For example, after hearing the question, “If a plane crashes while flying over state lines, where should the survivors be buried?” many start to consider the legality or appropriateness of the scenario despite knowing “survivors” should not be buried. Having more knowledge does not necessarily prevent individuals from overlooking illusory information/misinformation. Older adults tend to have greater crystallized intelligence than young adults, yet these age groups appear to detect illusory information at equivalent …

Beginner's Analysis Of Financial Stochastic Process Models, David Garcia

HMC Senior Theses

This thesis explores the use of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) as a financial model for predicting stock prices. The model is first introduced and its assumptions and limitations are discussed. Then, it is shown how to simulate GBM in order to predict stock price values. The performance of the GBM model is then evaluated in two different periods of time to determine whether it's accuracy has changed before and after March 23, 2020.

Application Of Sentiment Analysis And Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Daily Cryptocurrency Price Returns, Edward Wu

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effects of social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin on the daily price returns of Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies by utilizing sentiment analysis and machine learning techniques to predict daily price returns. Many investors think that social media sentiment affects cryptocurrency prices. However, the results of this paper find that social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin does not add significant predictive value to forecasting daily price returns for each of the six cryptocurrencies used for analysis and that machine learning models that do not assume linearity between the current day price return and previous daily price …

So Long My Friend, Bryan Mcnair

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

No abstract provided.

Teiresias, Proportions, And Sexual Pleasure, Spyros Missiakoulis

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

In this short article, I claim that Teiresias, the blind prophet of Apollo, in order to answer the question of whether “in sexual intercourse the woman had a larger share of pleasure than the man did”, measured the abstract concept of sexual pleasure and acted as a present-day scholar. With the help of numerical, not geometrical, proportions, he ended up with the conclusion “a man enjoyed one-tenth of the pleasure and a woman nine-tenths”.

Using Short Bursts To Optimize Redistricting In Georgia, Vedika Vishweshwar

CMC Senior Theses

Identifying extreme outliers in large state spaces is a difficult prob-
lem. I consider this problem in the context of finding political district-
ing plans that maximize the number of districts in which the majority
of the population is from a minority group, such as African Americans.
Since the set of all possible districting plans is enormous and unfeasi-
ble to examine in practice, this paper proposes a sampling method to
find these outlying plans. Specifically, this paper experiments with short
bursts in the context of minority voting rights in Georgia. Short bursts
are a type of Markov Chain in …

Containing Compounding Container Congestion, Curtis Salinger

CMC Senior Theses

The Covid-19 pandemic caused major disruptions throughout the container shipping supply chain. Professor Dongping Song of Liverpool University wrote a paper discussing the logistical vulnerabilities in the supply chain, including the issue of congestion in ports. This paper examines the Port of Los Angeles from 2018-2021 as it relates to Song’s paper to see how its operations were impacted during the Covid-19 timeframe. It is found that labor shortages, chassis shortages, and change in trade behavior each contributed to the congestion. Unfortunately, the implemented policies were insufficient to bolster the port against sustained challenges and congestion continues to worsen.

The Uncertainty Of Confidence, Michael J. Leach

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

This is a free-verse poem about the estimation of population parameters in statistical models. The spacing of words is intended to reflect uncertainty.

Markov Chains For Computer Music Generation, Ilana Shapiro, Mark Huber

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

Random generation of music goes back at least to the 1700s with the introduction of Musical Dice Games. More recently, Markov chain models have been used as a way of extracting information from a piece of music and generating new music. We explain this approach and give Python code for using it to first draw out a model of the music and then create new music with that model.

Neither “Post-War” Nor Post-Pregnancy Paranoia: How America’S War On Drugs Continues To Perpetuate Disparate Incarceration Outcomes For Pregnant, Substance-Involved Offenders, Becca S. Zimmerman

Pitzer Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the unique interactions between pregnancy, substance involvement, and race as they relate to the War on Drugs and the hyper-incarceration of women. Using ordinary least square regression analyses and data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ 2016 Survey of Prison Inmates, I examine if (and how) pregnancy status, drug use, race, and their interactions influence two length of incarceration outcomes: sentence length and amount of time spent in jail between arrest and imprisonment. The results collectively indicate that pregnancy decreases length of incarceration outcomes for those offenders who are not substance-involved but not evenhandedly -- benefitting white …

Uncovering Object Categories In Infant Views, Naiti S. Bhatt

Scripps Senior Theses

While adults recognize objects in a near-instant, infants must learn how to categorize the objects in their visual environments. Recent work has shown that egocentric head-mounted camera videos contain rich data that illuminate the infant experience (Clerkin et al., 2017; Franchak et al., 2011; Yoshida & Smith, 2008). While past work has focused on the social information in view, in this work, we aim to characterize the objects in infants’ at-home visual environments by modifying modern computer vision models for the infant view. To do so, we collected manual annotations of objects that infants seemed to be interacting within a …