Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Bridging The Gap Between Career Expectations Versus Labor Market Realities, Reinette P. Madrid, Grethel T. Ledesma, Ignatius Aryono Putranto, Jyro B. Triviño

Leadership and Strategy Faculty Publications

Most students lack awareness regarding the labor market outcomes for their chosen college majors. This study aims to answer what factors affect the career expectations of graduating students at Quezon City University and how these expectations align with the prevailing labor market situation. It employed descriptive, causal, and explanatory research using a sample of 108 respondents from fourth-year information technology students for the school year 2021 to 2022. Eight of the nine null hypotheses were rejected by employing multinomial logistic and linear regression. Student fixed effects and other labor market outcomes significantly predicted salary, estimated stability, and estimated skills in …

Rethinking Road Racing Standards: Comparing New York Road Runners Race Results To Running Industry Standards, Jennie Coughlin

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Running has undergone a third boom in participation since 2020, driven largely by people seeking fitness options that were outside and socially distanced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Social media has also allowed runners from groups that did not traditionally participate to find community. As the road racing population has expanded to include more people, some road racing industry standards have not kept up. This project assesses what the road racing community looks like and measures industry standards against the community of participants to see what changes in those standards would be needed to make them inclusive for all participants.

To …

Spatial Association Of Acute Respiratory Infection, Diarrhea, And Low Birth Weight With Stunting Prevalence In Indonesia, 2024, Dian Rosadi, Husaini Husaini, Triawanti Triawanti, Musafaah Musafaah

Kesmas

Stunting remains unevenly distributed across Indonesia, but national evidence integrating spatial analysis and spatial regression is limited. This study examined the spatial distribution of stunting and its associations with acute respiratory infection (ARI), diarrhea, and low birth weight (LBW) across Indonesian provinces. An ecological cross-sectional study used data from the 2024 Indonesian Nutritional Status Survey. Stunting-only analyses included all 38 provinces, whereas analyses involving ARI, diarrhea, and LBW included 37 provinces with complete data. Spatial analyses used a row-standardized symmetric four-nearest-neighbor spatial weights matrix and included Global Moran’s I, bivariate spatial analysis, Local Indicators of Spatial Association, ordinary least squares, …

Environmental Perspective For System Dynamics Modeling Of Stunting Mitigation To Achieve The Sustainable Development Goals In West Sumatra, Indonesia, Elsa Yuniarti, Nabila Azzahra, Yulhendri Yulhendri, Heldi Heldi, Mery Delvina, Saskia Putri Azeli

Kesmas

This study developed a system dynamics model to simulate stunting reduction in West Sumatra Province, Indonesia, by integrating infant and toddler health, maternal health, and environmental determinants. Secondary data from 2020–2024 on low birth weight, immunization, malnutrition, exclusive breastfeeding, maternal chronic energy deficiency, iron and folic acid supplement distribution, sanitation, and safe drinking water access were compiled from West Sumatra Provincial Health Office and Statistics Indonesia, and validated through consultation with five stakeholder institutions. Causal Loop Diagrams mapped feedback relationships among determinants and were translated into Stock Flow Diagrams using Powersim Studio 10. The model was validated through structural verification, …

When The Best-Fit Model Is Not Best: The Glass Slipper Fallacy And Latent Growth Mixture Modelling, Jonathan L. Chia, Markus Wettstein, Andree Hartanto

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Despite the use of latent growth mixture modelling (LGMM) to study longitudinal changes, existing practices may inadvertently impede this very investigation. Although subgroup trajectories may theoretically differ in their structure (e.g., some subgroups being linear, some curvilinear), the current convention advocates overreliance on the baseline model to derive subsequent profile trajectories, which may obscure these structural differences. In this article, we provide a brief description of extant LGMM practices, after which we explicate the pitfalls of the current approach. Finally, we provide a principled approach for LGMM research moving forward. Specifically, we recommend specifying a set of theoretically plausible models …

Machine Learning For Predictive Energy And Emissions Modeling Of Vehicles And Power Grids In The United States, S M Tanvir Faysal Alam Chowdhoury

Dissertations

The environmental benefits of electric vehicle (EV) adoption depend on more than replacing internal combustion engine vehicles with electric powertrains. EV adoption reshapes electricity demand, interacts with regional generation mixes, and influences travel behavior and congestion, creating a coupled transportation-energy system in which vehicle and power-plant emissions must be evaluated together. This dissertation develops machine-learning frameworks for predicting energy consumption and emissions from vehicles and power grids under rising EV adoption. The first component forecasts grid emissions from EV charging. Using simulation data from NREL's Cambium database, a Prophet-based time-series framework predicts carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane emission rates …

Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Insights For Risk Management And Investment Strategies: Evidence From China, India, And Pakistan Using Bekk-Garch Models, Samreen Fatima, Humera Sultana, Muhammad Najamuddin Dr., Saba Naz

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This study investigates the dynamics of volatility and its spillover effects between the stock markets of China, India, and Pakistan, and their respective exchange rates (USD/CNY, USD/INR, and USD/ PKR). Volatility is modeled using the Symmetric and Asymmetric BEKK-GARCH (1,1) and DCCGARCH (1,1) models, based on daily return series covering the period from January 1, 2019, to January 31, 2025. The empirical results indicate that both the employed models are adequate for capturing the volatility dynamics. The findings reveal that the highest value of portfolio weights and hedging efficiency of KSE-100 Index–USD/PKR provide optimal portfolio allocation and highest hedging performance …

A Multi-Dimensional Analysis Of China's Future Industry Development Policy Documents, Tianxiang Yao, Wang Xu

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] Future industries are important carriers of new quality productive forces which can play a leading role in the economic and social development. Quantitative analysis and evaluation of China's future industry policies can provide support and reference for the formulation, optimization and adjustment of subsequent policies. [Method/process] Taking a total of 84 policy texts at the central, provincial, municipal and county levels in China as the research objects, a three-dimensional analysis framework of "theme-tool-effectiveness" was constructed. By comprehensively applying LDA thematic analysis, content analysis and PMC index model, theme distribution, content characteristics and comprehensive effectiveness of policy texts were deeply …

Mengukur Capaian Dan Identifikasi Konvergensi Pembangunan Infrastruktur Antarprovinsi Di Indonesia, Ressa Isnaini Arumnisaa', Aisyah Fitri Yuniasih

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Indonesia’s economic challenges are characterized by stagnant economic growth and regional development disparities. This study analyzes the achievement and convergence of infrastructure development across provinces in Indonesia during 2011–2021 through the construction of an Infrastructure Development Index (IPI). The study employs panel data from 33 provinces, using factor analysis to construct the IPI and the First Difference Generalized Method of Moments (FD-GMM) to examine convergence and its determinants. The results show that many provinces still have IDI scores below the national average. Furthermore, the FD-GMM model shows that σ-convergence and β-convergence occur in Indonesia. In addition, GRDP per capita, inflation, …

Estimasi Underground Economy Triwulanan Di Indonesia Pada Tahun 2010–2023, Ghina Anandhia, Hardius Usman

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Underground economics have a significant impact on economy. Underground economy leads to low potential state revenues from the tax sector. This study estimates the quarterly value of the underground economy in Indonesia from 2010 to 2023 using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The results show that the average value of the underground economy in Indonesia is IDR138,392.32 billion, equivalent to 5.36 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.72 percent of tax revenue from 2010 to 2023. GDP and tax burden variables have a positive influence on currency demand.

The Interplay Between Deficit Spending And Financial Instability: An Examination Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy Interactions, Heidie Jean George

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

This study investigates the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on financial stability and fragility, focusing on how government spending and deficits contribute to the economic and financial system. Drawing on Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) and Financial Fragility Hypothesis (FFH), the research examines the dynamic relationship between fiscal policy, financial stability, and economic stability. The study focuses on understanding how government spending and deficits affect the economic and financial system in context of private and public debt and policy interactions and the role of system risk factors. The study uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Vector Autoregression (VAR), Impulse Response …

A Predictive Coding Account Of Spatial Working Memory Following Prophylactic Levetiracetam Administration Prior To Traumatic Brain Injury, Omeima Mutwali

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) symptom prevention and remediation is an important area of research that would benefit vulnerable groups, including active-duty and veteran soldiers. These patients can sustain penetrative forces in fields of combat or in training, which result in focal lesions that trigger inflammatory and degenerative processes in the brain. Both primary and secondary injuries are associated with changes to cognition, behavior and affective state. This disease poses increased risk of epileptogenesis, as well. Given these outcomes, prior research has evaluated levetiracetam (LEV) as a prophylactic treatment for seizures, cognitive deficits and negative emotionality. LEV acts as a presynaptic …

Transportation Deserts And Structural Mobility Access In New York City, John Cruz

Student Theses

This study examines structural mobility access across New York City census tracts by constructing a tract-level Mobility Access Index (MAI) that integrates employment accessibility, hospital accessibility, and first-mile subway walking burden using MTA GTFS transit data, NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission trip records, and US Census American Community Survey demographic estimates. Three OLS regression models, supplemented by Lasso, Elastic Net, and Random Forest specifications, test whether structural access gaps are associated with short-distance connector trip intensity and per-worker connector cost burden. Results show that MAI varies substantially across tracts, with high access concentrated in Manhattan and along major subway corridors. …

Bayesian Spatiotemporal Model For Counterfactual Estimation In Socioeconomic Studies, Duwani W. Gonzalez

Statistical Science Theses and Dissertations

Impact evaluations of regional development programs often require estimating counterfactual outcomes for a small number of treated regions using survey-based areal data. In practice, evaluators typically rely on two-group quasi-experimental methods such as propensity score matching (PSM) and Difference-in-Differences (DiD). These approaches perform poorly when only a few regions receive treatment, and when the set of observed covariates is limited or only partially relevant. Moreover, they typically do not explicitly exploit the spatial and temporal dependence present in survey-based areal data such as in ACS (American Community Survey). This dissertation develops a family of Bayesian spatial predictive models for directly …

Latent Transition Analysis: A Statistical Method For Identifying Underlying Subgroups Over Time, Holmes Finch

Perspectives on Early Childhood Psychology and Education

Researchers working in early childhood research are often interested in assessing change over time in multiple variables. In addition, they may wish to ascertain whether there exist subgroups in the data with respect to these variables, and whether/how membership in these groups is related. Latent transition analysis (LTA) provides such researchers with a useful tool for investigating questions around such groups, including their composition, frequency, and the likelihood of moving from one to another at different points in time. The purpose of this manuscript is to provide a full demonstrate of LTA and show how it can be used to …

A Tutorial For Identifying And Comparing Change Points In Developmental Trajectories, Holmes Finch

Perspectives on Early Childhood Psychology and Education

Researchers in a variety of social science fields work with sequential data, such as measurements made over time. In some instances, one or more of the moments (e.g., mean, variance) of the series may change abruptly at some point in the sequence, yielding what is known as a change point. There is a broad literature describing methods for changepoint detection. Researchers working with multiple sequential series containing change points may be interested in comparing the locations of these changes. The purpose of this manuscript is to demonstrate how a researcher can detect changepoints and compare changepoints between two or more …

Using Multilevel Modeling To Understand Nested Data, Holmes Finch

Perspectives on Early Childhood Psychology and Education

Researchers in the social sciences often work with nested data, in which individuals are collected in higher level clusters. For example, educational research often involves working with samples in which students are nested within schools. Standard data analyses, such as regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA), yield statistically biased results when this nested structure is ignored. One widely used and effective approach for handling such nested data is multilevel modeling. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the basics of multilevel modeling and to provide the reader with a fully worked example in which the analytic approach and results …

Using Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, And The Bayes Factor To Better Understand The T-Test, Analysis Of Variance, And Regression Results, Holmes Finch

Perspectives on Early Childhood Psychology and Education

Null hypothesis testing is a widely used paradigm for assessing research hypotheses across the social sciences. Despite their ubiquity, researchers have discussed a number of problems and limitations to hypothesis testing and have suggested alternatives that might provide greater depth and explanation of research results. The purpose of this paper is to describe the use of several such alternatives and to show how they can be integrated with one another and with null hypothesis testing in order to provide a more holistic view of research hypotheses.

The Legacy Of Lead: Lead Exposure's Harmful Effects And Its Concentration In Poc Communities, Layla Sophronia Barber

Student Theses 2015-Present

This thesis examines the disproportionate burden of lead exposure carried by low income, POC communities. The systemic nature of this problem is a symptom of a longstanding legacy of environmental injustice in the United States. Decades of federal neglect are reflected in the higher statistics of lead exposure and poisoning in predominantly black communities. While it is understood that lead exposure poses a serious threat to physical health and early cognitive development, there is a discouraging lack of urgency to remove the toxin from non-wealthy communities. The material covered by this thesis aims to identify and correct the discriminatory social …

The Impatience Of Winning: An Analysis Of Time Discounting, Predictive Modeling, And The Nba Draft, Alec R. Plante

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This paper examines whether NBA draft decisions can be better explained by incorporating non-geometric time discounting into a model of general manager decision making. Using a dataset of 285 NBA draft prospects over a 12-year period, the impact of college statistics on Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is determined, and these impact values are then used to create a “predicted” VORP for the first 4 seasons of each player’s career: a projection of what a general manager might think of a prospect’s future value given their college statistics. Following this, geometric and hyperbolic time discounting models are applied to estimate …

Progress, Characteristics And Prospects Of Interdisciplinary Research Collaboration At Home And Abroad:Research Based On Literature Published In The Past Five Years, Yueliang Zeng, Ying Yu, Ruirui Gao

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] Interdisciplinary research collaboration is an important way to promote knowledge innovation and solve complex social problems in the new era. Reviewing the research progress of interdisciplinary research collaboration at home and abroad in the past five years can help grasp the research frontiers in this field and provide direction for future research. [Method/process] This paper adopts a systematic review method, selecting literature closely related to the theme of interdisciplinary research collaboration from inWeb of Science and CNKI from 2020 to 2024, condensing the research topic, analyzing the main research viewpoints, and summarizing the changing characteristics, then proposing future research …

Research On Academic Journal Evaluation Based On Factor Dimensionality Reduction, Data Weighting, And Journal Characteristics Orientation, Liping Yu, Jing Zhang

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] The characteristics of academic journals have important value, and current evaluation systems lack assesment for this dimension. [Method/process] This paper proposes a variable weight method for factor reduction data, firstly uses factor analysis combined with manual classification to determine the characteristics of the journal, and uses Sigmoid function to standardize the public factors to determine the characteristic journals, and then uses the variable weight function to modify the original data for the characteristic indicators of the characteristic journals based on the data of forestry journals in CNKI. Three representative methods including linear weighted aggregation, weighted TOPSIS, and factor analysis, …

A Meta-Analysis Of Corporate Innovation Intention And Its Driving Mechanisms, Yaping Hu, Xuerong Shen, Yi Zheng

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] Stimulating corporate innovation intention is a pivotal issue for promoting innovation. However, the academic discourse on its key drivers presents significantly divergent and even contradictory conclusions, leading to theoretical ambiguity and practical guidance challenges. This study aims to systematically and quantitatively integrate empirical research in this field to clarify the true effects of core driving factors and their operational boundaries. [Method/process] Adopting a meta-analysis approach, this study systematically retrieves and screens literature, ultimately analyzes 29 empirical studies and examine four potential moderating variables which include location, data type, industry, and culture. [Result/conclusion] The study finds that government support, internal …

Factors Affecting Pedestrian-Vehicle Conflicts: An Empirical Analysis, Christo D. Jamo

Honors Scholar Theses

The number of pedestrian deaths increased by 78% between 2009 and 2023, while other motor vehicle crash deaths increased by 13% in the same period [1]. To identify potential pedestrian safety measures, this study analyzed the effects of location-based demographics, pedestrian phasing type, and other physical infrastructure and behavior variables on the probability of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts at signalized intersections, which is a surrogate measure of crash risk. Data were collected from 55 intersections in Connecticut, and the pedestrian-vehicle interactions were classified by severity based on the Swedish Traffic Conflict Technique: undisturbed passage, potential conflict, minor conflict, or serious conflict. Because …

A Novel Approach To Creativity Assessment: Forced Pairwise Ranking With Large Language Models, Phillip R. Gregory Jr

Master's Theses

Assessing creativity at scale remains a persistent challenge in cognitive science, as human raters are costly, slow, and often inconsistent in their judgments. This thesis introduced a novel framework for automated scientific creativity assessment using forced pairwise ranking, in which fine-tuned large language models compared response pairs and determined which was more creative. Five empirical studies were conducted using Llama-2-7B and Llama-2-13B models adapted via LoRA fine-tuning and benchmarked against human scored responses from the Scientific Creative Thinking Test. A regression baseline achieved Pearson �� = .74 on the test set, matching the human inter-rater ceiling reported in the literature. …

Feasibility Study Of Transitioning From Thick Plates (0.250”) Mounted On 30-Point Pvc Carriers To Thinner Plate Technologies Mounted On Recyclable Foam And Pet (0.155”) For Post-Print Corrugated, Nathaniel J. Poole

All Theses

In the United States, the most common press configuration for brown-box printing is a 0.280” undercut press. These press configurations have long relied on thick 0.250” plates mounted on 0.030” PVC sheets to print onto corrugated substrates. Each year, around twenty million pounds of waste are produced by the printing industry, through paper waste, plate waste, among other materials. One large factor of that waste is flexographic plate waste, which either ends its life in a landfill or is repurposed into other products. This study establishes a comparison between traditionally used 0.250” plates on 30pt PVC versus 0.155” plates mounted …

Coexistence Of“Emotion”And“Rationality”：Analysis Of The Impact Mechanism Of Frequent Reversal Events On The Evolution Of Online Public Opinion, Liqiang Wang, Xueqi Li, Yixian Wang

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] In recent years, frequent reversal events have negatively impacted the online media environment, leading to an increasing number of skeptical voices during the evolution of public opinion.These doubts are no longer merely emotional outbursts but also involve rational understanding of the event's authenticity. This study aims to gain a deeper understanding of this phenomenon and attempts to reveal the impact mechanism of frequent reversal events on the evolution of online public opinion. [Method/process] Through surveys and computer simulation experiments, the study analyzes various elements such as individuals, media environment, and evolution patterns in online public opinion,then according to the …

The Item Response Warehouse: What It Is, How To Use It, And Targets For Potential Improvements, Savira D. Nadela, Hansol Lee, Nishka Jain, Ayaan Gupta, Xingyi Zhang, Benjamin W. Domingue

Chinese/English Journal of Educational Measurement and Evaluation | 教育测量与评估双语期刊

The Item Response Warehouse (IRW) is a repository of harmonized item response datasets designed to support secondary analysis and methodological research in psychological and educational measurement. This paper serves as a practical guide for researchers interested in using the IRW. We describe the structure of IRW datasets and the quantitative and qualitative metadata available for dataset selection, and we demonstrate how researchers can navigate the IRW website to explore and compare available tables. We further show how the IRW R and Python packages can be used to filter datasets programmatically, download response-level data, and generate standardized citations for reproducible research …

Simulation And Projection Of Glaciers And Their Runoff In Xinjiang Based On Tgsgs, Zhongqin Li, Yefei Yang, Bowen Liu, Huilin Li, Zexin Zhan, Feiteng Wang, Chunhai Xu, Weibo Zhao

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Glaciers are large flowing ice bodies formed from snowfall in cold regions. Due to the intrinsic physical properties of ice and the complexity of boundary conditions, physically based modelling of glacier change remains a global challenge. With support from the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ key science infrastructure program for the field station, the Tianshan Glaciological Station completed the Tianshan Glacier Station Glacier Simulator (TGSGS) in 2025. TGSGS features advanced representations of the physical mechanisms driving glacier change and multi-scale ensemble strategy, and is integrated with a reference glacier observation network based on terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), a low-temperature laboratory for …

Drainage Proximity And Sinkhole Occurrence In Sivrihisar (Central Turkey): A Comparative Analysis Of Linear, Poisson, And Negative Binomial Regression Models, Bilge Bingül, Emrah Pekkan, Resul Çömert

International Journal of Speleology

This study investigates the relationship between sinkhole occurrence and distance to drainage in the Sivrihisar region (Central Turkey) and evaluates the suitability of different regression approaches for modeling clustered count data in karst terrains. A comprehensive inventory of 104 sinkholes developed within the Neogene lacustrine limestones of the Akpınar Formation was compiled using official records, remote sensing analyses, and detailed field surveys. Sinkhole occurrences were analyzed relative to a drainage network derived from a high-resolution Digital Surface Model and grouped by proximity to drainage lines. Linear Regression (LM), Poisson Regression (PR), and Negative Binomial Regression (NBR) models were comparatively applied …