Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Smale Strategies For The $N$-Person Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, Ethan Akin, Sławomir Plaskacz, Joanna Zwierzchowska

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Adapting methods introduced by Steven Smale, we describe good strategies for a symmetric version of the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma with n players.

The Odd Log-Logistic Gompertz Lifetime Distribution: Properties And Applications, Morad Alizadeh, Saeid Tahmasebi, Mohammad Reza Kazemi, Hamideh Siyamar Arabi Nejad, Gholamhossein G. Hamedani

Mathematical and Statistical Science Faculty Research and Publications

In this paper, we introduce a new three-parameter generalized version of the Gompertz model called the odd log-logistic Gompertz (OLLGo) distribution. It includes some well-known lifetime distributions such as Gompertz (Go) and odd log-logistic exponential (OLLE) as special sub-models. This new distribution is quite flexible and can be used effectively in modeling survival data and reliability problems. It can have a decreasing, increasing and bathtub-shaped failure rate function depending on its parameters. Some mathematical properties of the new distribution, such as closed-form expressions for the density, cumulative distribution, hazard rate function, the kth order moment, moment generating function and …

Perception Of People Living With Hiv/Aids On Social Stigma Of Hiv/Aids In Sukoharjo District, Titik Haryanti, Wartini Wartini

Kesmas

The stigma of wrong society about HIV / AIDS is one of the obstacles to prevention and control of HIV / AIDS in Sukoharjo District. This study aims to determine the relationship of characteristics, causal factors and duration of HIV / AIDS with the perception of people living with HIV to the stigma of society about HIV / AIDS in Sukoharjo District. The research used is analytical descriptive with cross sectional approach. The population is all people with HIV / AIDS until April 2016 amounted to 256 with a sample of 156 people with sampling technique quota sampling. Bivariate analysis …

Prediction Models For Descreasing Visual Acuity In Wig Makers, Nur Ulfah, Siti Harwanti, Ngadiman Ngadiman

Kesmas

One of the occupational diseases that can arise for workers with high accuracy is a decrease in their visual acuity. Therefore, it is necessary to study the risk factors of decreasing visual acuity in workers with high accuracy, such as in wig makers. This study aimed to examine the correlation between age, working period, lighting intensity, fatigue, and nutritional status with visual acuity, and to observe the main risk factors that can be used as a reference for predicting decreasing visual acuity. This study was an observational study that used a cross-sectional design. The population number for this study was …

Influence Of Decentralization And Type Of Patient On Loss To Follow-Up Among Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Patients In Indonesia From 2014 To 2015, Noerfitri Noerfitri, R. Sutiawan, Tri Yunis Miko Wahyono, Pratiwi Ayuningtyas Hartono

Kesmas

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) patients have a greater risk of loss to follow-up (LTFU) than drug-sensitive TB patients, due to their longer treatment duration. This study aimed to determine the influence of decentralization and patient type on LTFU among multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) patients in Indonesia. A retrospective cohort study was conducted at all MDR-TB treatment healthcare facilities in Indonesia from 014 to 2015. Using total sampling technique, 961 patients were examined and sampled. Of these patients, 86.03% were decentralized. Patients were classified into types as follows: 35.17% were “relapse” patients, 5.52% were “new,” 13.94% were classified as “after LTFU” patients, 23.10% …

Knowledge And Practice In Household Waste Management, Agnes Fitria Widiyanto, Suratman Suratman, Nisrina Alifah, Tri Murniati, Oktafiani Catur Pratiwi

Kesmas

Declining environmental quality is one of population caused by household consumption behavior. Some of the highest contaminant contributions are domestic waste, waste, and company waste. Waste contamination will lead to dead fish, decreased water quality and disease transmission. Community approach can be done to solve the waste problem, especially at the household level. This study uses quantitative methods to analyze the effect of intervention and waste management training on changes in household waste management knowledge and practices. This type of research uses quasi experiment with one group of pre and post test design. The results showed that there was an …

Exclusive Breastfeeding And Decrease Of Upper Respiratory Infection Incidence Among Infants Aged 6-12 Months In Kampar District, Riau Province, Musfardi Rustam, Renti Mahkota, Nasrin Kodim

Kesmas

Upper Respiratory Infection (URI) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality of infants and toddlers in developing countries. The high infant morbidity and mortality rates in Indonesia are associated with the low exclusive breastfeeding ability. Breast milk is a natural drink for newborns in the first month of life that is beneficial not only for the babies, but also for mothers. The aim of study was to determine exclusive breastfeeding and decrease in incidence of URI among infants aged 6-12 months. This study was conducted by using case control design. Samples were taken by using cluster random sampling. Subject …

The Consumption Of Fresh Vegetables From Street Food And Sanitation Of Street Stalls At Four Locations In Bogor City, Donna Fujie Rahaditha Utami, Winiati P. Rahayu, Lilis Nuraida

Kesmas

The consumption of fresh vegetables at the stalls needs serious attention. This research aimed to estimate the exposure probability due to fresh vegetables consumption of street food consumers, to measure sanitation level of street stalls that serving fresh vegetables, and to recommend a mentoring program for the stalls at four locations in Bogor City. This research was conducted at 16 stalls located at four locations in Bogor City. The number of respondents surveyed was 293 people and determined by stratified sampling method. Food frequency questionnaire was used as a tool in the survey. The survey showed that men consumed more …

Relationship Model For Occupational Safety And Health Climate To Prevent Needlestick Injuries For Nurses, Ketut Ima Ismara, Adi Heru Husodo, Yayi Suryo Prabandari, Widodo Hariyono

Kesmas

The risk of accidents and disease transmission when working at hospitals is quite high, especially in Indonesia. This study aimed to analyze the relationship model between the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) climate and behavior intention in OSH performance to prevent needlestick injuries (NSI) based on a theory of planned behavior. A mixed approach using qualitative and quantitative methods was applied. Data were obtained from Structural Equation Model questionnaires, observation, and documentation, and interviews were analyzed qualitatively. The population was 1,042 nurses at Dr. Sardjito General Hospital in Yogyakarta. The sample consisted of 289 respondents determined by purposive random sampling …

Effect Of Condom Utilization On Sexuall Transmitted Infection Among Female Sex Workers, In Tulungagung District, East Java, Indonesia, Ainun Hanifah, Ari Natalia Probandari, Eti Poncorini Pamungkasari

Kesmas

One effective strategy for preventing sexually transmitted infection (STI) incidence and providing protection for female sex workers (FSWs) from their sexual partners is correct and consistent condom use behavior. This study examined the effect of condom use on STI among FSWs in Tulungagung District, East Java. This analytic and observational study using a cohort prospective design was conducted at Ngujang ex- prostitution area and Gunung Bolo prostitution area, Tulungagung District, from November to January 2017. The total sample selected was 90 FSWs. Data was collected through a set of questionnaires and tracking condom use in a diary. Data were analyzed …

Sustainable Energy Governance In South Tyrol (Italy): A Probabilistic Bipartite Network Model, Jessica Belest, Laura Secco, Elena Pisani, Alberto Caimo

Articles

At the national scale, almost all of the European countries have already achieved energy transition targets, while at the regional and local scales, there is still some potential to further push sustainable energy transitions. Regions and localities have the support of political, social, and economic actors who make decisions for meeting existing social, environmental and economic needs recognising local specificities.

These actors compose the sustainable energy governance that is fundamental to effectively plan and manage energy resources. In collaborative relationships, these actors share, save, and protect several kinds of resources, thereby making energy transitions deeper and more effective.

This research …

Evaluating Trajectories Of Episodic Memory In Normal Cognition And Mild Cognitive Impairment: Results From Adni, Xiuhua Ding, Richard J. Charnigo, Frederick A. Schmitt, Richard J. Kryscio, Erin L. Abner, Alzheimer’S Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

Statistics Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: Memory assessment is a key factor for the diagnosis of cognitive impairment. However, memory performance over time may be quite heterogeneous within diagnostic groups.

METHOD: To identify latent trajectories in memory performance and their associated risk factors, we analyzed data from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) participants who were classified either as cognitively normal or as Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) at baseline and were administered the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning test (RAVLT) for up to 9 years. Group-based trajectory modeling on the 30-minute RAVLT delayed recall score was applied separately to the two baseline diagnostic groups.

RESULTS: There were …

Impact Of The Affordable Care Act On Colorectal Cancer Screening, Incidence, And Survival In Kentucky, Tong Gan, Heather F. Sinner, Samuel C. Walling, Quan Chen, Bin Huang, Thomas C. Tucker, Jitesh A. Patel, B. Mark Evers, Avinash S. Bhakta

Surgery Faculty Publications

Background

Kentucky ranks first in the US in cancer incidence and mortality. Compounded by high poverty levels and a high rate of medically uninsured, cancer rates are even worse in Appalachian Kentucky. Being one of the first states to adopt the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion, insurance coverage markedly increased for Kentucky residents. The purpose of our study was to determine the impact of Medicaid expansion on colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, diagnosis, and survival in Kentucky.

Study Design

The Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Services and the Kentucky Cancer Registry were queried for individuals (≥20 years) undergoing CRC …

Toxoplasma Gondii Igg Associations With Sleepwake Problems, Sleep Duration And Timing, Celine C. Corona, Ma Zhang, Abhishek Wadhawan, Melanie L. Daue, Maureen W. Groer, Aline Dagang, Christopher A. Lowry, Kathleen A. Ryan, Andrew J. Hoisington, John W. Stiller, Dietmar Fuchs, Braxton D. Mitchell, Teodor T. Postolache

Faculty Publications

Background: Evidence links Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii), a neurotropic parasite, with schizophrenia, mood disorders and suicidal behavior, all of which are associated and exacerbated by disrupted sleep. Moreover, low-grade immune activation and dopaminergic overstimulation, which are consequences of T. gondii infection, could alter sleep patterns and duration. Methods: Sleep data on 833 Amish participants [mean age (SD) = 44.28 (16.99) years; 59.06% women] were obtained via self-reported questionnaires that assessed sleep problems, duration and timing. T. gondii IgG was measured with ELISA. Data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regressions and linear mixed models, with adjustment for age, sex and family …

A Parent-Led Intervention To Promote Recovery Following Pediatric Injury: Study Protocol For A Randomized Controlled Trial, Meghan L. Marsac, Ginny Sprang, Leila Guller, Kristen L. Kohser, John M. Draus Jr., Nancy Kassam-Adams

Pediatrics Faculty Publications

Background: Injury is one of the most prevalent potentially emotionally traumatic events that children experience and can lead to persistent impaired physical and emotional health. There is a need for interventions that promote full physical and emotional recovery and that can be easily accessed by all injured children. Based on research evidence regarding post-injury recovery, we created the Cellie Coping Kit for Children with Injury intervention to target key mechanisms of action and refined the intervention based on feedback from children, families, and experts in the field. The Cellie Coping Kit intervention is parent-guided and includes a toy (for engagement), …

Exploring The Behavior Of Model Fit Criteria In The Bayesian Approximate Measurement Invariance: A Simulation Study, Abeer Atallah S. Alamri

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Measurement invariance (MI) is conducted to ensure that differences found in the results of group comparisons are due to true substantive differences and not methodological artifacts. Previous cross-cultural and cross-national studies with large number of groups showed that the advanced measurement invariance level was rarely held when utilizing the traditional (frequentist) MI approach. The Bayesian approximate measurement invariance (BAMI) was introduced to override the traditional MI strict assumption, because trivial non-invariance in parameters across groups is allowed. Although the concept of the BAMI, which has been utilized since 2013, was incorporated into the context of structural equation modeling, there is …

Functional Random Forest With Applications In Dose-Response Predictions, Raziur Rahman, Saugato Rahman Dhruba, Souparno Ghosh, Ranadip Pal

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Drug sensitivity prediction for individual tumors is a significant challenge in personalized medicine. Current modeling approaches consider prediction of a single metric of the drug response curve such as AUC or IC₅₀. However, the single summary metric of a dose-response curve fails to provide the entire drug sensitivity profile which can be used to design the optimal dose for a patient. In this article, we assess the problem of predicting the complete dose-response curve based on genetic characterizations. We propose an enhancement to the popular ensemble-based Random Forests approach that can directly predict the entire functional profile of …

Neural Shrubs: Using Neural Networks To Improve Decision Trees, Kyle Caudle, Randy Hoover, Aaron Alphonsus

SDSU Data Science Symposium

Decision trees are a method commonly used in machine learning to either predict a categorical response or a continuous response variable. Once the tree partitions the space, the response is either determined by the majority vote – classification trees, or by averaging the response values – regression trees. This research builds a standard regression tree and then instead of averaging the responses, we train a neural network to determine the response value. We have found that our approach typically increases the predicative capability of the decision tree. We have 2 demonstrations of this approach that we wish to present as …

Session: 4 Multilinear Subspace Learning And Its Applications To Machine Learning, Randy Hoover, Kyle Caudle Dr., Karen Braman Dr.

SDSU Data Science Symposium

Multi-dimensional data analysis has seen increased interest in recent years. With more and more data arriving as 2-dimensional arrays (images) as opposed to 1-dimensioanl arrays (signals), new methods for dimensionality reduction, data analysis, and machine learning have been pursued. Most notably have been the Canonical Decompositions/Parallel Factors (commonly referred to as CP) and Tucker decompositions (commonly regarded as a high order SVD: HOSVD). In the current research we present an alternate method for computing singular value and eigenvalue decompositions on multi-way data through an algebra of circulants and illustrate their application to two well-known machine learning methods: Multi-Linear Principal Component …

Predicting Unplanned Medical Visits Among Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning, Arielle Selya, Eric L. Johnson

SDSU Data Science Symposium

Diabetes poses a variety of medical complications to patients, resulting in a high rate of unplanned medical visits, which are costly to patients and healthcare providers alike. However, unplanned medical visits by their nature are very difficult to predict. The current project draws upon electronic health records (EMR’s) of adult patients with diabetes who received care at Sanford Health between 2014 and 2017. Various machine learning methods were used to predict which patients have had an unplanned medical visit based on a variety of EMR variables (age, BMI, blood pressure, # of prescriptions, # of diagnoses on problem list, A1C, …

Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks From A Population Of Yeast Segregants, Chen Chen, Dabao Zhang, Tony R. Hazbun, Min Zhang

Purdue University Libraries Open Access Publishing Fund

Constructing gene regulatory networks is crucial to unraveling the genetic architecture of complex traits and to understanding the mechanisms of diseases. On the basis of gene expression and single nucleotide polymorphism data in the yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we constructed gene regulatory networks using a two-stage penalized least squares method. A large system of structural equations via optimal prediction of a set of surrogate variables was established at the first stage, followed by consistent selection of regulatory effects at the second stage. Using this approach, we identified subnetworks that were enriched in gene ontology categories, revealing directional regulatory mechanisms controlling …

Volleyball Overhead Swing Volume And Injury Frequency Over The Course Of A Season, Heather Wolfe, Katherine Poole, Alejandro G. Villasante Tezanos, Robert A. English, Timothy L. Uhl

Statistics Faculty Publications

Background: Overuse injuries are common in volleyball; however, few studies exist that quantify the workload of a volleyball athlete in a season. The relationship between workload and shoulder injury has not been extensively studied in women's collegiate volleyball athletes.

Hypothesis/Purpose: This study aims to quantify shoulder workloads by counting overhead swings during practice and matches. The purpose of the current study is to provide a complete depiction of typical overhead swings, serves, and hits, which occur in both practices and matches. The primary hypothesis was that significantly more swings will occur in practices compared to matches. The secondary hypothesis was …

One-Dimensional Excited Random Walk With Unboundedly Many Excitations Per Site, Omar Chakhtoun

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

We study a discrete time excited random walk on the integers lattice requiring a tail decay estimate on the number of excitations per site and extend the existing framework, methods, and results to a wider class of excited random walks.

We give criteria for recurrence versus transience, ballisticity versus zero linear speed, completely classify limit laws in the transient regime, and establish a functional limit laws in the recurrence regime.

Nonparametric Depth And Quantile Regression For Functional Data, Joydeep Chowdhury, Probal Chaudhuri

Journal Articles

We investigate nonparametric regression methods based on spatial depth and quantiles when the response and the covariate are both functions. As in classical quantile regression for finite dimensional data, regression techniques developed here provide insight into the influence of the functional covariate on different parts, like the center as well as the tails, of the conditional distribution of the functional response. Depth and quantile based nonparametric regression methods are useful to detect heteroscedasticity in functional regression. We derive the asymptotic behavior of the nonparametric depth and quantile regression estimates, which depend on the small ball probabilities in the covariate space. …

Application Of A Hybrid Statistical–Dynamical System To Seasonal Prediction Of North American Temperature And Precipitation, Sarah Strazzo, Dan C. Collins, Andrew Schepen, Q. J. Wang, Emily Becker, Liweli Jia

Publications

Recent research demonstrates that dynamical models sometimes fail to represent observed teleconnection patterns associated with predictable modes of climate variability. As a result, model forecast skill may be reduced. We address this gap in skill through the application of a Bayesian postprocessing technique—the calibration, bridging, and merging (CBaM) method—which previously has been shown to improve probabilistic seasonal forecast skill over Australia. Calibration models developed from dynamical model reforecasts and observations are employed to statistically correct dynamical model forecasts. Bridging models use dynamical model forecasts of relevant climate modes (e.g., ENSO) as predictors of remote temperature and precipitation. Bridging and calibration …

Indonesia And Central Asia: Romanticizing Authoritarian Regime In The Past?, Mochamad Aviandy

International Review of Humanities Studies

Even though countries in Central Asia and Indonesia seem to be unrelated, both actually have experienced authoritarian regime and implemented decentralization system after that regime collapsed. Nevertheless, decentralization along with non-authoritarian regime does not automatically bring the desired good result since a new authoritarian regime based on decentralization appears. As a result, the citizens long for the welfare of the centralism system. Before talking further about the comparison of both regions, it is better to have a good understanding of each region.

Opioids And Cerebral Physiology In The Acute Management Of Traumatic Brain Injury: A Systematic Review, Joshua Weiner, Amanda Mcintyre, Shannon Janzen, Magdalena Mirkowski, Heather M. Mackenzie, Robert Teasell

Epidemiology and Biostatistics Publications

Background: Following traumatic brain injury (TBI), optimization of cerebral physiology is recommended to promote more favourable patient outcomes. Accompanying pain and agitation are commonly treated with sedative and analgesic agents, such as opioids. However, the impact of opioids on certain aspects of cerebral physiology is not well established.

Objective: To conduct a systematic review of the evidence on the effect of opioids on cerebral physiology in TBI during acute care.

Methods: A comprehensive literature search was conducted in five electronic databases for articles published in English up to November 2017. Studies were included if: (1) the study sample was human …

An Evaluation Of Training Size Impact On Validation Accuracy For Optimized Convolutional Neural Networks, Jostein Barry-Straume, Adam Tschannen, Daniel W. Engels, Edward Fine

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we present an evaluation of training size impact on validation accuracy for an optimized Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). CNNs are currently the state-of-the-art architecture for object classification tasks. We used Amazon’s machine learning ecosystem to train and test 648 models to find the optimal hyperparameters with which to apply a CNN towards the Fashion-MNIST (Mixed National Institute of Standards and Technology) dataset. We were able to realize a validation accuracy of 90% by using only 40% of the original data. We found that hidden layers appear to have had zero impact on validation accuracy, whereas the neural …

Comparisons Of Performance Between Quantum And Classical Machine Learning, Christopher Havenstein, Damarcus Thomas, Swami Chandrasekaran

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we present a performance comparison of machine learning algorithms executed on traditional and quantum computers. Quantum computing has potential of achieving incredible results for certain types of problems, and we explore if it can be applied to machine learning. First, we identified quantum machine learning algorithms with reproducible code and had classical machine learning counterparts. Then, we found relevant data sets with which we tested the comparable quantum and classical machine learning algorithm's performance. We evaluated performance with algorithm execution time and accuracy. We found that quantum variational support vector machines in some cases had higher accuracy …

Political Profiling Using Feature Engineering And Nlp, Chiranjeevi Mallavarapu, Ramya Mandava, Sabitri Kc, Ginger M. Holt

SMU Data Science Review

Public surveys are predominantly used when forecasting election outcomes. While the approach has had significant successes, the surveys have had their failures as well, especially when it comes to accuracy and reliability. As a result, it becomes challenging for political parties to spend their campaign budgets in a manner that facilitates the growth of a favorable and verifiable public opinion. Consequently, it is critical that a more accurate methodology to predict election outcome is developed. In this paper, we present an evaluation of the impact of utilizing dynamic public data on predicting the outcome of elections. Our model yielded a …