Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Assessment And Correction Of Lidar-Derived Dems In The Coastal Marshes Of Louisiana, William M. Lauve

LSU Master's Theses

The onset of airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) has resulted in expansive, precise digital elevation models (DEMs). DEMs are essential for modeling complex systems, such as the coastal land margin of Louisiana. They are used for many applications (e.g. tide, storm surge, and ecological modeling) and by diverse groups (e.g. state and federal agencies, NGOs, and academia). However, in a marsh environment, it is difficult for airborne lidar to produce accurate bare-earth measurements and even accurate elevations are rarely verified by ground truth data. The accuracy of lidar in marshes is limited by the sensor’s resolution …

Tobacco Smoking And Dementia In A Kentucky Cohort: A Competing Risk Analysis, Erin L. Abner, Peter T. Nelson, Gregory A. Jicha, Gregory E. Cooper, David W. Fardo, Frederick A. Schmitt, Richard J. Kryscio

Epidemiology and Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Tobacco smoking was examined as a risk for dementia and neuropathological burden in 531 initially cognitively normal older adults followed longitudinally at the University of Kentucky’s Alzheimer’s Disease Center. The cohort was followed for an average of 11.5 years; 111 (20.9%) participants were diagnosed with dementia, while 242 (45.6%) died without dementia. At baseline, 49 (9.2%) participants reported current smoking (median pack-years = 47.3) and 231 (43.5%) former smoking (median pack-years = 24.5). The hazard ratio (HR) for dementia for former smokers versus never smokers based on the Cox model was 1.64 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.46), while the HR for …

Jmasm 51: Bayesian Reliability Analysis Of Binomial Model – Application To Success/Failure Data, M. Tanwir Akhtar, Athar Ali Khan

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Reliability data are generated in the form of success/failure. An attempt was made to model such type of data using binomial distribution in the Bayesian paradigm. For fitting the Bayesian model both analytic and simulation techniques are used. Laplace approximation was implemented for approximating posterior densities of the model parameters. Parallel simulation tools were implemented with an extensive use of R and JAGS. R and JAGS code are developed and provided. Real data sets are used for the purpose of illustration.

Comparative Clinical Outcomes Between Direct Oral Anticoagulants And Warfarin Among Elderly Patients With Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation In The Cms Medicare Population, Alpesh Amin, Oluwaseyi Dina, Allison Keshishian, Amol Dhamane, Anagha Nadkarni, Eric Carda, Cristina Russ, Lisa Rosenblatt, Jack Mardekian, Huseyin Yuce, Christine L. Baker

Publications and Research

Atrial fibrillation (AF) prevalence increases with age; > 80% of US adults with AF are aged ≥ 65 years. Compare the risk of stroke/systemic embolism (SE), major bleeding (MB), net clinical outcome (NCO), and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) among elderly non-valvular AF (NVAF) Medicare patients prescribed direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) vs warfarin. NVAF patients aged ≥ 65 years who initiated DOACs (apixaban, dabigatran, and rivaroxaban) or warfarin were selected from 01JAN2013-31DEC2015 in CMS Medicare data. Propensity score matching was used to balance DOAC and warfarin cohorts. Cox proportional hazards models estimated the risk of stroke/SE, MB, NCO, and MACE. 37,525 …

Six-Month Outcome Of Transient Ischemic Attack And Its Mimics, Alireza Sadighi, Vida Abedi, Alia C. Stanciu, Nada El Andary, Mihai Banciu, Neil Holland, Ramin Zand

Faculty Journal Articles

Background and Objective: Although the risk of recurrent cerebral ischemia is higher after a transient ischemic attack (TIA), there is limited data on the outcome of TIA mimics. The goal of this study is to compare the 6-month outcome of patients with negative and positive diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) TIAs (DWI-neg TIA vs. DWI-pos TIA) and also TIA mimics.

Methods: We prospectively studied consecutive patients with an initial diagnosis of TIA in our tertiary stroke centers in a 2-year period. Every included patient had an initial magnetic resonance (MR) with DWI and one-, three-, and six-month follow-up visits. The primary outcome …

A Random Forests Approach To Assess Determinants Of Central Bank Independence, Maddalena Cavicchioli, Angeliki Papana, Ariadni Papana Dagiasis, Barbara Pistoresi

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A non-parametric efficient statistical method, Random Forests, is implemented for the selection of the determinants of Central Bank Independence (CBI) among a large database of economic, political, and institutional variables for OECD countries. It permits ranking all the determinants based on their importance in respect to the CBI and does not impose a priori assumptions on potential nonlinear relationships in the data. Collinearity issues are resolved, because correlated variables can be simultaneously considered.

Data And Metrics: Do We Need Them? What Can They Tell Us? What Can't They?, Nathan L. Tintle

Faculty Work Comprehensive List

"In our increasingly data-centric world, how do we think about data? How should we think about data?"

Posting about ­­­­­­­­using data to make informed decisions from In All Things - an online journal for critical reflection on faith, culture, art, and every ordinary-yet-graced square inch of God’s creation.

https://inallthings.org/data-and-metrics-do-we-need-them-what-can-they-tell-us-what-cant-they/

Maximum Likelihood Estimation For The Generalized Pareto Distribution And Goodness-Of-Fit Test With Censored Data, Minh H. Pham, Chris Tsokos, Bong-Jin Choi

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is a flexible parametric model commonly used in financial modeling. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the GPD was proposed by Grimshaw (1993). Maximum likelihood estimation of the GPD for censored data is developed, and a goodness-of-fit test is constructed to verify an MLE algorithm in R and to support the model-validation step. The algorithms were composed in R. Grimshaw’s algorithm outperforms functions available in the R package ‘gPdtest’. A simulation study showed the MLE method for censored data and the goodness-of-fit test are both reliable.

Feature Selection For Longitudinal Data By Using Sign Averages To Summarize Gene Expression Values Over Time, Suyan Tian, Chi Wang

Biostatistics Faculty Publications

With the rapid evolution of high-throughput technologies, time series/longitudinal high-throughput experiments have become possible and affordable. However, the development of statistical methods dealing with gene expression profiles across time points has not kept up with the explosion of such data. The feature selection process is of critical importance for longitudinal microarray data. In this study, we proposed aggregating a gene’s expression values across time into a single value using the sign average method, thereby degrading a longitudinal feature selection process into a classic one. Regularized logistic regression models with pseudogenes (i.e., the sign average of genes across time as predictors) …

Vulnerability Of Industrial Facilities In The Lower Mississippi River Industrial Corridor To Relative Sea Level Rise And Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge, Joseph Blake Harris

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Relative sea level rise (RSLR) and tropical cyclone-induced storm surge are major threats to the Lower Mississippi River Industrial Corridor (LMRIC) which has approximately 120 industrial complexes located within the corridor. Spatial interpolation methods were applied to the 2004 National Oceanic and Atmospheric published Technical Report #50 subsidence dataset and cross-validation techniques were used to determine the accuracy of each method. Digital elevation models (DEMs) were created for the years 2025, 2050, and 2075, based on these predictive surface of subsidence rates. Future DEMs were utilized to model RSLR and determine the extent of storm surge on the LMRIC by …

Optimal Conditional Expectation At The Video Poker Game Jacks Or Better, Stewart N. Ethier, John J. Kim, Jiyeon Lee

UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal

There are 134,459 distinct initial hands at the video poker game Jacks or Better, taking suit exchangeability into account. A computer program can determine the optimal strategy (i.e., which cards to hold) for each such hand, but a complete list of these strategies would require a book-length manuscript. Instead, a hand-rank table, which fits on a single page and reproduces the optimal strategy perfectly, was found for Jacks or Better as early as the mid 1990s. Is there a systematic way to derive such a hand-rank table? We show that there is indeed, and it involves finding the exact optimal …

Unified Methods For Feature Selection In Large-Scale Genomic Studies With Censored Survival Outcomes, Lauren Spirko-Burns, Karthik Devarajan

COBRA Preprint Series

One of the major goals in large-scale genomic studies is to identify genes with a prognostic impact on time-to-event outcomes which provide insight into the disease's process. With rapid developments in high-throughput genomic technologies in the past two decades, the scientific community is able to monitor the expression levels of tens of thousands of genes and proteins resulting in enormous data sets where the number of genomic features is far greater than the number of subjects. Methods based on univariate Cox regression are often used to select genomic features related to survival outcome; however, the Cox model assumes proportional hazards …

A Simulation Study Of Diagnostics For Bias In Non-Probability Samples, Philip S. Boonstra, Roderick Ja Little, Brady T. West, Rebecca R. Andridge, Fernanda Alvarado-Leiton

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

A non-probability sampling mechanism is likely to bias estimates of parameters with respect to a target population of interest. This bias poses a unique challenge when selection is 'non-ignorable', i.e. dependent upon the unobserved outcome of interest, since it is then undetectable and thus cannot be ameliorated. We extend a simulation study by Nishimura et al. [International Statistical Review, 84, 43--62 (2016)], adding a recently published statistic, the so-called 'standardized measure of unadjusted bias', which explicitly quantifies the extent of bias under the assumption that a specified amount of non-ignorable selection exists. Our findings suggest that this new …

Bayesian Approximation Techniques For Scale Parameter Of Laplace Distribution, Uzma Jan, S. P. Ahmad

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The Bayesian estimation of the scale parameter of a Laplace Distribution is obtained using two approximation techniques, like Normal approximation and Tierney and Kadane (T-K) approximation, under different informative priors.

Can One Test Fit All? Responses To The Article “Striving For Simple But Effective Advice For Comparing The Central Tendency Of Two Populations” (Ruxton & Neuhäuser, 2018), Diep Nguyen, Eun Sook Kim, Yi-Hsin Chen

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Responses to suggestions made by Ruxton & Neuhäuser (2018) regarding Nguyen et al. (2016) are given.

Associations Of Hemodynamics, Morphology, And Patient Characteristics With Aneurysm Rupture Stratified By Aneurysm Location, Felicitas J. Detmer, Bong Jae Chung, Carlos Jimenez, Farid Hamzei-Sichani, David Kallmes, Christopher Putman, Juan R. Cebral

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Purpose: The mechanisms of cerebral aneurysm rupture are not fully understood. We analyzed the associations of hemodynamics, morphology, and patient age and gender with aneurysm rupture stratifying by location. Methods: Using image-based models, 20 hemodynamic and 17 morphological parameters were compared in 1931 ruptured and unruptured aneurysms with univariate logistic regression. Rupture rates were compared between males and females as well as younger and older patients and bifurcation versus sidewall aneurysms for different aneurysm locations. Subsequently, associations between hemodynamics and morphology and patient as well as aneurysm characteristics were analyzed for aneurysms at five locations. Results: Compared to unruptured aneurysms, …

On The Conditional And Unconditional Type I Error Rates And Power Of Tests In Linear Models With Heteroscedastic Errors, Patrick J. Rosopa, Alice M. Brawley, Theresa P. Atkinson, Stephen A. Robertson

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Preliminary tests for homoscedasticity may be unnecessary in general linear models. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, results suggest that when testing for differences between independent slopes, the unconditional use of weighted least squares regression and HC4 regression performed the best across a wide range of conditions.

Φ-Divergence Loss-Based Artificial Neural Network, R. L. Salamwade, D. M. Sakate, S. K. Mathur

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) can fit non-linear functions and recognize patterns better than several standard techniques. Performance of ANNs is measured by using loss functions. Phi-divergence estimator is generalization of maximum likelihood estimator and it possesses all its properties. A neural network is proposed which is trained using phi-divergence loss.

Robust Ancova, Curvature, And The Curse Of Dimensionality, Rand Wilcox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

There is a substantial collection of robust analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) methods that effectively deals with non-normality, unequal population slope parameters, outliers, and heteroscedasticity. Some are based on the usual linear model and others are based on smoothers (nonparametric regression estimators). However, extant results are limited to one or two covariates. A minor goal here is to extend a recently-proposed method, based on the usual linear model, to situations where there are up to six covariates. The usual linear model might provide a poor approximation of the true regression surface. The main goal is to suggest a method, based on …

A Strategy For Using Bias And Rmse As Outcomes In Monte Carlo Studies In Statistics, Michael Harwell

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

To help ensure important patterns of bias and accuracy are detected in Monte Carlo studies in statistics this paper proposes conditioning bias and root mean square error (RMSE) measures on estimated Type I and Type II error rates. A small Monte Carlo study is used to illustrate this argument.

A Robust Nonparametric Measure Of Effect Size Based On An Analog Of Cohen's D, Plus Inferences About The Median Of The Typical Difference, Rand Wilcox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The paper describes a nonparametric analog of Cohen's d, Q. It is established that a confidence interval for Q can be computed via a method for computing a confidence interval for the median of D = X₁ − X₂, which in turn is related to making inferences about P(X₁ < X₂).

Should We Give Up On Causality?, Tom Knapp

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

No abstract provided.

Striving For Simple But Effective Advice For Comparing The Central Tendency Of Two Populations, Graeme Ruxton, Markus Neuhäuser

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Nguyen et al. (2016) offered advice to researchers in the commonly-encountered situation where they are interested in testing for a difference in central tendency between two populations. Their data and the available literature support very simple advice that strikes the best balance between ease of implementation, power and reliability. Specifically, apply Satterthwaite’s test, with preliminary ranking of the data if a strong deviation from normality is expected, or is suggested by visual inspection of the data. This simple guideline will serve well except when dealing with small samples of discrete data, when more sophisticated treatment may be required.

Logistic Regression: An Inferential Method For Identifying The Best Predictors, Rand Wilcox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

When dealing with a logistic regression model, there is a simple method for estimating the strength of the association between the j^th covariate and the dependent variable when all covariates are entered into the model. There is the issue of determining whether the j^th independent variable has a stronger or weaker association than the k^th independent variable. This note describes a method for dealing with this issue that was found to perform reasonably well in simulations.

Drones And “Ghost Guns”: Unregulated Legal Space, Tori Bodine

Research on Capitol Hill

Law enforcement agencies are fighting a two - pronged battle when it comes to emerging technologies: keeping up with new ways criminals are using technology and developing effective ways to combat these innovations, while balancing these challenges against preserving the individual liberties of law - abiding citizens. This conflict is especially apparent with regard to criminal use of commercial drones and the developing fringe market surrounding homemade untraceable firearms (“ghost guns”).

Data Analytics Pipeline For Rna Structure Analysis Via Shape, Quinn Nelson

UNO Student Research and Creative Activity Fair

Coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) is a cardiovirulent enterovirus from the family Picornaviridae. The RNA genome houses an internal ribosome entry site (IRES) in the 5’ untranslated region (5’UTR) that enables cap-independent translation. Ample evidence suggests that the structure of the 5’UTR is a critical element for virulence. We probe RNA structure in solution using base-specific modifying agents such as dimethyl sulfate as well as backbone targeting agents such as N-methylisatoic anhydride used in Selective 2’-Hydroxyl Acylation Analyzed by Primer Extension (SHAPE). We have developed a pipeline that merges and evaluates base-specific and SHAPE data together with statistical analyses that provides confidence …

Large Scale Dynamical Model Of Macrophage/Hiv Interactions, Sean T. Bresnahan, Matthew M. Froid

UNO Student Research and Creative Activity Fair

Properties emerge from the dynamics of large-scale molecular networks that are not discernible at the individual gene or protein level. Mathematical models - such as probabilistic Boolean networks - of molecular systems offer a deeper insight into how these emergent properties arise. Here, we introduce a non-linear, deterministic Boolean model of protein, gene, and chemical interactions in human macrophage cells during HIV infection. Our model is composed of 713 nodes with 1583 interactions between nodes and is responsive to 38 different inputs including signaling molecules, bacteria, viruses, and HIV viral particles. Additionally, the model accurately simulates the dynamics of over …

Informative Group Testing For Multiplex Assays, Christopher R. Bilder, Joshua M. Tebbs, Christopher S. Mcmahan

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Infectious disease testing frequently takes advantage of two tools–group testing and multiplex assays–to make testing timely and cost effective. Until the work of Tebbs et al. (2013) and Hou et al. (2017), there was no research available to understand how best to apply these tools simultaneously. This recent work focused on applications where each individual is considered to be identical in terms of the probability of disease. However, risk-factor information, such as past behavior and presence of symptoms, is very often available on each individual to allow one to estimate individual-specific probabilities. The purpose of our paper is to propose …

Recent Efforts To Elucidate The Scientific Validity Of Animal-Based Drug Tests By The Pharmaceutical Industry, Pro-Testing Lobby Groups, And Animal Welfare Organisations, Jarrod Bailey

Validation of Animal Experimentation Collection

Background: Even after several decades of human drug development, there remains an absence of published, substantial, comprehensive data to validate the use of animals in preclinical drug testing, and to point to their predictive nature with regard to human safety/toxicity and efficacy. Two recent papers, authored by pharmaceutical industry scientists, added to the few substantive publications that exist. In this brief article, we discuss both these papers, as well as our own series of three papers on the subject, and also various views and criticisms of lobby groups that advocate the animal testing of new drugs.

Main text: We argue …

Non Parametric Test For Testing Exponentiality Against Exponential Better Than Used In Laplace Transform Order, Mahmoud Mansour, M A W Mahmoud Prof.

Basic Science Engineering

In this paper, the test statistic for testing exponentiality against exponential better than used in Laplace transform order (EBUL) based on the Laplace transform technique is proposed. Pitman’s asymptotic efficiency of our test is calculated and compared with other tests. The percentiles of this test are tabulated. The powers of the test are estimated for famously used distributions in aging problems. In the case of censored data, our test is applied and the percentiles are also calculated and tabulated. Finally, real examples in different areas are utilized as practical applications for the proposed test.