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Articles 541 - 570 of 1025

Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis

Long-Term U.S. Cross-Border Security Flows With Developed And Emerging Market Countries Surrounding The Global Financial Crisis, Caitlin Tongco Apr 2015

Long-Term U.S. Cross-Border Security Flows With Developed And Emerging Market Countries Surrounding The Global Financial Crisis, Caitlin Tongco

Honors College Theses

This paper analyzes the impact of the global financial crisis on cross-border long-term security flows from and towards the U.S. We are investigating monthly observations from 72 countries over the period from 2003 to 2013. The findings show that the global financial crisis impacted all cross-border capital flows in our analysis; yet, the timing, the significance, and the nature of the impact varies among the different securities, as well as between a sample of developed and emerging market countries. We find evidence for a flight-to-safety with the start of the global financial crisis, with a significant, but short lived interruption …

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The Discreet Trader, Seth Wing Apr 2015

The Discreet Trader, Seth Wing

Honors Projects in Finance

This paper examines insider trading, specifically trades by corporate insiders around quarterly earnings announcements. Announcements were broken up into three categories: earnings above analyst expectations, earnings below expectations, and earnings in line with expectations. Trade data was collected from the thirty companies of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 2012-’13. The trades were sorted by purchases and sales by date and analyzed with the earnings report of which the trades were made. Only trades in the interval from twenty days before the announcement date to twenty days after the announcement date were considered. The prediction was that corporate insiders would …

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Institutional Shareholding And Information Content Of Dividend Surprises: Re-Examining The Dynamics In Dividend-Reappearance Era, Abu S. Amin, Shantanu Dutta, Samir Saadi, Premal P. Vora Apr 2015

Institutional Shareholding And Information Content Of Dividend Surprises: Re-Examining The Dynamics In Dividend-Reappearance Era, Abu S. Amin, Shantanu Dutta, Samir Saadi, Premal P. Vora

WCBT Faculty Publications

We examine the role of institutional investors’ investment horizon on the information content associated with dividend announcement surprises in the “dividend-reappearance era”. We find that the presence of institutional investors negatively affects the announcement period cumulative abnormal return (CAR), which suggests that institutional investors reduce information content of dividend announcements. This result is primarily driven by the fact that institutional investors, especially the not-short-horizon investors, do not prefer dividend surprises – which leads to lower announcement period CAR. We do not find support for institutional investors’ informed trading argument. Our study reveals that in order to understand the dynamics between …

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Market Pricing Of Banks’ Fair Value Assets Reported Under Sfas 157 Since The 2008 Financial Crisis, Beng Wee Goh, Dan Li, Jeffrey Ng, Keng Kevin Ow Yong Mar 2015

Market Pricing Of Banks’ Fair Value Assets Reported Under Sfas 157 Since The 2008 Financial Crisis, Beng Wee Goh, Dan Li, Jeffrey Ng, Keng Kevin Ow Yong

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We investigate how investors price the fair value estimates of assets as required by Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 157 (SFAS 157) since the financial crisis in 2008. We observe that Level 3 fair value estimates are typically priced lower than Level 1 and Level 2 fair value estimates between 2008 and 2011. However, the difference between the pricing of the different estimates reduces over time, suggesting that as market conditions stabilize in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, reliability concerns about Level 3 estimates dissipated to some extent. Next, we examine whether Level 3 gains affect the …

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From Pit To Electronic Trading: Impact On Price Volatility, Lucjan T. Orlowski Feb 2015

From Pit To Electronic Trading: Impact On Price Volatility, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the dynamics of price volatility and trading volume of 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures within the context of transition from pit to electronic trading. The analysis is conducted over four discernible phases of futures trading evolution: the pit-only phase, the leap to electronic trading, and the electronic trading dominant phase, which is divided further into two periods, the before and after the financial crisis of 2007/2009. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with in-mean conditional variance and generalized error distribution parameterization (GARCH-M-GED) tests are conducted to examine the conditional volatility of total returns index as a function of trading …

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Singapore Budget 2015: Building Our Future, Strengthening Social Security, Clarence Goh, Felix Wong Jan 2015

Singapore Budget 2015: Building Our Future, Strengthening Social Security, Clarence Goh, Felix Wong

Research Collection School of Accountancy

Our Budget for FY2014 is expected to record a slightly smallerdeficit than what we had estimated a year ago. We had budgetedfor an overall deficit of $1.2 billion (or 0.3% of GDP). We nowexpect a very small deficit of $0.1 billion, close to a balancedposition.

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Market Microstructure And Abnormal Returns: An Analysis Of Nyse And Sgx Securities, Alex Ng Jan 2015

Market Microstructure And Abnormal Returns: An Analysis Of Nyse And Sgx Securities, Alex Ng

Honors Theses

This paper investigates the differences in the abnormal returns of securities in the context of the earnings announcement in both the United States (NYSE) and Singapore (SGX) markets[1]. Despite the similarities between both exchanges, there exist two key market microstructure differences: the free float factor (i.e. the portion of listed share capital that is freely traded on the market) and lot size (i.e. the minimum number of shares that an investor can trade in a single transaction). While the difference in the lot size can be attributed to the intrinsic institutional differences between both exchanges, the involvement of …

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Performance Of Utility Based Hedges, Jim Hanly, John Cotter Jan 2015

Performance Of Utility Based Hedges, Jim Hanly, John Cotter

Articles

Hedgers as investors are concerned with both risk and return. However when measuring hedging performance, the role of returns and investor risk aversion has generally been neglected in the literature, by its focus on minimum variance hedging. In this paper we address this by using utility based performance metrics to evaluate the hedging effectiveness of utility based hedges for hedgers with both moderate and high risk aversion together with the more traditional minimum variance approach. To examine this for an energy hedger, we apply our approach to WTI Crude Oil, for three different hedging horizons, daily, weekly and monthly. We …

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Asset Allocation In The Chinese Stock Market: The Role Of Return Predictability, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu Jan 2015

Asset Allocation In The Chinese Stock Market: The Role Of Return Predictability, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this article the authors investigate asset allocation in the Chinese stock market from the perspective of incorporating return predictability. Based on a host of return predictors, they find significant out-of-sample return predictability in the Chinese stock market. They then examine the performance of active portfolio strategies—such as aggregate market timing as well as industry, size, and value-rotation strategies—designed to profitably exploit return predictability. Strong evidence is found by the authors that these portfolio strategies incorporating return predictability can deliver superior performance—up to 600 basis points per annum and almost double the Sharpe ratios—compared with the passive buy-and-hold benchmarks that …

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Semi-Universal Portfolios With Transaction Costs, Dingjiang Huang, Yan Zhu, Bin Li, Shuigeng Zhou, Steven C. H. Hoi Jan 2015

Semi-Universal Portfolios With Transaction Costs, Dingjiang Huang, Yan Zhu, Bin Li, Shuigeng Zhou, Steven C. H. Hoi

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Online portfolio selection (PS) has been extensively studied in artificial intelligence and machine learning communities in recent years. An important practical issue of online PS is transaction cost, which is unavoidable and nontrivial in real financial trading markets. Most existing strategies, such as universal portfolio (UP) based strategies, often rebalance their target portfolio vectors at every investment period, and thus the total transaction cost increases rapidly and the final cumulative wealth degrades severely. To overcome the limitation, in this paper we investigate new investment strategies that rebalances its portfolio only at some selected instants. Specifically, we design a novel on-line …

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Beyond Ss: An Analysis Of Alternative Risk Measures, Jai Kedia Jan 2015

Beyond Ss: An Analysis Of Alternative Risk Measures, Jai Kedia

Senior Independent Study Theses

Investors require a return from investing in stock securities that adequately compensate the investors for the risk level assumed. Therefore, any calculation of expected returns from a stock requires knowledge of the risk of the security. While there is no strong consensus on an ideal risk measure, traditionally risk has been conceptualized as volatility and is measured by the ß of the stock or portfolio. This paper hypothesizes that alternative risk measures such as higher order moments, size, leverage, and price-to-book value add explanatory power to the ß when predicting stock returns. Empirical analysis is conducted using both regression and …

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Corporate Social Performance, Analyst Stock Recommendations, And Firm Future Returns, Xueming Luo, Heli Wang, Sascha Raithel, Qinqin Zheng Jan 2015

Corporate Social Performance, Analyst Stock Recommendations, And Firm Future Returns, Xueming Luo, Heli Wang, Sascha Raithel, Qinqin Zheng

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study posits that security analysts heed corporate social performance information and factor it into their recommendations to general investors. In particular, as corporate social performance is often uncertain and ambiguous to general investors, analysts may serve as the informational pathway connecting corporate social performance to firm stock returns. Thus, we argue that analyst recommendations mediate the relationship between corporate social performance and firm stock returns. On the basis of not only a qualitative study with literature searches and interviews of stock analysts but also a quantitative study with two longitudinal samples of large firms, we find support for these …

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Limited Attention, Marital Events, And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Sugata Ray, Melvyn Teo Jan 2015

Limited Attention, Marital Events, And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Sugata Ray, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We explore the impact of limited attention on investment performance by analyzing the returns of hedge fund managers who are distracted by personal events such as marriage and divorce. We find that marriages and divorces are associated with significantly lower fund alpha, during the six-month period surrounding the event and for up to two years after the event. Relative to the pre-event window, fund alpha falls by an annualized 8.50 percent during a marriage and 7.39 percent during a divorce. Busy fund managers who manage larger funds and engage in high tempo investment strategies are more affected by marriage. Fund …

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Vine Copula Modelling Of Dependence And Portfolio Optimization With Application To Mining And Energy Stock Return Series From The Australian Market, Jose Arreola Hernandez Jan 2015

Vine Copula Modelling Of Dependence And Portfolio Optimization With Application To Mining And Energy Stock Return Series From The Australian Market, Jose Arreola Hernandez

Theses: Doctorates and Masters

This thesis models the dependence risk profile, investment risk and portfolio allocation features of seven 20-stock portfolios from the mining, energy, retail and manufacturing sectors of the Australian market in the context of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis (2008-2009 GFC) and pre-GFC, GFC, post-GFC and full sample period scenarios revolving around it. The mining and energy portfolios are the base of the study, while the retail and manufacturing are considered for benchmarking purposes. Pair vine copula models including canonical vines (c-vines), drawable vines (d-vines) and regular vines (r-vines) are fitted for the analysis of …

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Analyst Price Target Expected Returns And Option Implied Risk, Turan G. Bali, Jianfeng Hu, Scott Murray Dec 2014

Analyst Price Target Expected Returns And Option Implied Risk, Turan G. Bali, Jianfeng Hu, Scott Murray

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Motivated by the nature of asset pricing models, we investigate the cross-sectional relation between the market's ex-ante view of a stock's risk and the stock's ex-ante expected return. We demonstrate that an ex-ante measure of expected returns based on analyst price targets is highly related to the market's required rate of return. Using this measure, we show that ex-ante measures of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis derived from option prices are positively related to ex-ante expected returns. We then decompose the risk measures into systematic and unsystematic components and find that while expected returns are related to both systematic and unsystematic …

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Building And Testing A Portfolio Of Marijuana Stocks: Why U.S. Sec Trading Suspensions Might Cause Some To Crash Before (Or After) Reaching New High, Anthony J. Cataldo Ii, Thomas Miller, Glenn S. Soltis, Brian J. Halsey Sep 2014

Building And Testing A Portfolio Of Marijuana Stocks: Why U.S. Sec Trading Suspensions Might Cause Some To Crash Before (Or After) Reaching New High, Anthony J. Cataldo Ii, Thomas Miller, Glenn S. Soltis, Brian J. Halsey

Accounting Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

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Research In Credit Risk Of Shipping Enterprises Based On The Kmv Model, Yannan Wu Aug 2014

Research In Credit Risk Of Shipping Enterprises Based On The Kmv Model, Yannan Wu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

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The Risk-Relevance Of Securitizations During The Recent Financial Crisis, Yiwei Dou, Yanju Liu, Gordon Richardson, Dushyantkumar Vyas Jun 2014

The Risk-Relevance Of Securitizations During The Recent Financial Crisis, Yiwei Dou, Yanju Liu, Gordon Richardson, Dushyantkumar Vyas

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We investigate changes in the risk-relevance of securitized subprime, other nonconforming, and commercial mortgages for sponsor-originators during the recent financial crisis. Using the volatility of realized stock returns, option-implied volatility, and credit spreads, we observe a pronounced increase in the risk-relevance of subprime securitizations as early as 2006. Furthermore, reflecting the evolution of the financial crisis in waves, we find that investors recognized the increased credit risk of other nonconforming and commercial mortgage securitizations as the financial crisis progressed. Additional analyses show that risk-relevance varies cross-sectionally with structural characteristics such as monoline credit-enhancement and the presence of special servicers for …

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Industry-Based Style Investing, Russell Jame, Qing Tong Jun 2014

Industry-Based Style Investing, Russell Jame, Qing Tong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Motivated by the style investing model of Barberis and Shleifer (2003), we examine the industry-wide investment decisions of retail investors. We find that retail investor industry demand is highly correlated and strongly related to past industry returns. Moreover, industries heavily bought by retail investors over the past year significantly underperform industries heavily sold over the subsequent year. Similarly, stocks in industries heavily bought by retail investors underperform stocks in industries heavily sold, even after controlling for firm-level demand. Our results suggest that industry-wide categorization influences the investment decisions of retail investors and has a significant impact on asset prices.

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Real Estate Investment By Bank Holding Companies And Their Risk And Return: Nonparametric And Garch Procedures, Scott Deacle, Elyas Elyasiani May 2014

Real Estate Investment By Bank Holding Companies And Their Risk And Return: Nonparametric And Garch Procedures, Scott Deacle, Elyas Elyasiani

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

We investigate the association between real estate investment by US Bank Holding Companies (BHCs) and their return, risk and risk-adjusted returns. Three portfolios are formed of BHCs according to whether they do or do not invest in real estate, strictness of the regulation on real estate investment and the ratio of real estate investment to assets. Wilcoxon tests of differences in portfolio returns, risk, risk-adjusted returns and value at risk between each pair of portfolios are conducted to determine how engagement in real estate, stricter regulation and increased real estate investment affect BHC performance. These effects are also investigated within …

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How Do Bond Specific, Firm Specific And Macroeconomic Factors Influence Corporate Credit Spreads?, Michael Mayberger May 2014

How Do Bond Specific, Firm Specific And Macroeconomic Factors Influence Corporate Credit Spreads?, Michael Mayberger

Honors Projects

The recession of 2008-2009 showcased the critical role that the corporate bond market plays in providing firms with access to capital, a role reflected by a 300% increase in corporate bonds issued from $600 billion issued in 2007 to $1.8 trillion issued in 2012. In this study, I investigate the bond specific, firm specific and macroeconomic factors that explain the change in corporate credit spreads within the Consumer Staples industry between 2005 and 2013. The results show that the firm specific variables, debt and total assets, have the largest impact on the corporate credit spreads. However, there is a weaker …

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Is Sin Always A Sin? The Interaction Effect Of Social Norms And Financial Incentives On Market Participants’ Behavior, Yanju Liu, Hai Lu, Kevin Veenstra May 2014

Is Sin Always A Sin? The Interaction Effect Of Social Norms And Financial Incentives On Market Participants’ Behavior, Yanju Liu, Hai Lu, Kevin Veenstra

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Using alcohol, tobacco, and gaming consumption data and people’s attitudes toward these sin products to proxy for social norm acceptance levels, we show a strong interaction effect between social norms and financial incentives, which significantly influence the behavior of market participants. Specifically, institutional investors’ shareholdings and analyst coverage of sin companies increase with the degree of social norm acceptance. The association between shareholdings/coverage and social norm acceptance is less pronounced for firms with higher future expected performance. Our results show that social norms and financial incentives have a powerful interaction effect in determining the behavior of market participants, suggesting that …

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Tracking Errors Of Exchange Traded Funds And Index Funds, Rupendra Paliwal Apr 2014

Tracking Errors Of Exchange Traded Funds And Index Funds, Rupendra Paliwal

WCBT Working Papers

Exchange traded funds (ETF) are one of the recent financial innovations widely viewed as significantly better investments than mutual funds given their lower fee structure and tax efficiency. Individual investors are increasingly using ETFs tracking most popular stock indices to achieve their investment goals. In some cases, investors are using these ETFs to replace index mutual funds in their long-term portfolios. Thus, it is important to compare the performance of widely held ETFs and index funds in terms of their ability to consistently track the underlying index. Another interesting research question is whether tracking errors of these two investment vehicles …

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Does Option Trading Convey Stock Price Information?, Jianfeng Hu Mar 2014

Does Option Trading Convey Stock Price Information?, Jianfeng Hu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

After executing option orders, options market makers turn to the stock market to hedge away the underlying stock exposure. As a result, the stock exposure imbalance in option transactions translates into an imbalance in stock transactions. This paper decomposes the total stock order imbalance into an imbalance induced by option transactions and an imbalance independent of options. The analysis shows that the option-induced imbalance significantly predicts future stock returns in the cross section, but the imbalance independent of options only has a transitory price impact. Further investigation suggests that options order flow contains important information about the underlying stock value.

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Forecasting The Equity Risk Premium: The Role Of Technical Indicators, Christopher J. Neely, David E. Rapach, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou Mar 2014

Forecasting The Equity Risk Premium: The Role Of Technical Indicators, Christopher J. Neely, David E. Rapach, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Academic research relies extensively on macroeconomic variables to forecast the U.S. equity risk premium, with relatively little attention paid to the technical indicators widely employed by practitioners. Our paper fills this gap by comparing the predictive ability of technical indicators with that of macroeconomic variables. Technical indicators display statistically and economically significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power, matching or exceeding that of macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, technical indicators and macroeconomic variables provide complementary information over the business cycle: technical indicators better detect the typical decline in the equity risk premium near business-cycle peaks, whereas macroeconomic variables more readily pick up the …

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The Price Discovery Puzzle In Offshore Yuan Trading: Different Contributions For Different Contracts, David K. Ding, Yiuman Tse, Michael R. Williams Feb 2014

The Price Discovery Puzzle In Offshore Yuan Trading: Different Contributions For Different Contracts, David K. Ding, Yiuman Tse, Michael R. Williams

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The People's Bank of China (PBC) lifted yuan trading restrictions in July of 2010 that led to offshore yuan spot trading in Hong Kong. Based on causality analyses, we find that price discovery is absent between the onshore and offshore spot markets. However, we document the presence of price discovery between onshore spot and offshore nondeliverable forward (NDF) rates. These seemingly inconsistent results present a puzzle wherein one offshore market appears to be more informationally integrated with the onshore market than another. We conclude that price discovery differences in the offshore markets stem from the offshore spot and forward contracts …

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The Limits Of The Market-Wide Limits Of Arbitrage: Insights From The Dynamics Of 100 Anomalies, Hieiko Jacobs Jan 2014

The Limits Of The Market-Wide Limits Of Arbitrage: Insights From The Dynamics Of 100 Anomalies, Hieiko Jacobs

Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre

Are anomalies strongest when limits of arbitrage are widely considered to be greatest? We empirically explore this theoretically deducted prediction. We first identify, categorize, and replicate 100 anomalies in the cross-section of expected equity returns. We then comprehensively study their dynamic interaction with popular proxies for time-varying market-level arbitrage conditions. Our findings reveal a surprisingly weak role of commonly employed measures of market-wide arbitrage risks and constraints. Even though this “big picture” evidence is by no means conclusive, our findings might potentially be best interpreted as supporting the growing literature which uncovers some shortcomings of the limits to arbitrage argument.

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Be Smart: Focus On Processes And Diversify, Singapore Management University Jan 2014

Be Smart: Focus On Processes And Diversify, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Hedge fund managers have plenty to think about today as China transitions to a consumption-driven economy, bank financing dries up, and Washington lurches along a rocky road.

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The January Effect: A Test Of Market Efficiency, Shelby Klock Jan 2014

The January Effect: A Test Of Market Efficiency, Shelby Klock

Theses & Honors Papers

The purpose of this study is to test the weakform efficient market hypothesis by analyzing the effects of year end selling/buying and the January effect on stock price. Specifically, is itpossible to earn an above normal return at the beginning of the new year? Numerous past studies suggest that at year end investors sell underperforming stocks, thus negatively impacting stock price . Past studies also suggest the repurchase of previou$ year losers in January causing upward pressure on stock price. According to the weakform efficient market hypothesis, it is not possible to outperform the market …

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Cybersecurity Strategy In Developing Nations: A Jamaica Case Study, Kevin Patrick Newmeyer Jan 2014

Cybersecurity Strategy In Developing Nations: A Jamaica Case Study, Kevin Patrick Newmeyer

2010-2016 Archived Posters

Developing nations have been slow to develop and implement cybersecurity strategies despite a growing threat to governance and public security. This qualitative case study examined how the government and private sector in Jamaica viewed the state of cybersecurity in the country, and how the country was developing policy to respond to cyber threats.

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