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Articles 1 - 22 of 22
Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis
The Change In Corporate Transparency Of Korean Firms After The Asian Financial Crisis: An Analysis Using Analysts' Forecast Data, Jinho Chang, Young Jun Cho, Hyun-Han Shin
The Change In Corporate Transparency Of Korean Firms After The Asian Financial Crisis: An Analysis Using Analysts' Forecast Data, Jinho Chang, Young Jun Cho, Hyun-Han Shin
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
Using analysts' forecast error and forecast dispersion of firms covered by the I/B/E/S database, this study examines the change in information asymmetry of Korean firms around the financial crisis of 1997. Results show that the information asymmetry of Korean firms is lower after the financial crisis than before, implying that corporate transparency did, in effect, improve with the change in business environment. In addition, this study finds that chaebol firms have higher information asymmetry than non-chaebol firm, and also that the corporate transparency improvement of chaebol firms is not higher than that of non-chaebol firms in the post-crisis period despite …
Asymmetries In Stock Returns: Statistical Tests And Economic Evaluation, Yongmiao Hong, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Asymmetries In Stock Returns: Statistical Tests And Economic Evaluation, Yongmiao Hong, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We provide a model-free test for asymmetric correlations in which stocks move more often with the market when the market goes down than when it goes up, and also provide such tests for asymmetric betas and covariances. When stocks are sorted by size, book-to-market, and momentum, we find strong evidence of asymmetries for both size and momentum portfolios, but no evidence for book-to-market portfolios. Moreover, we evaluate the economic significance of incorporating asymmetries into investment decisions, and find that they can be of substantial economic importance for an investor with a disappointment aversion (DA) preference as described by Ang, Bekaert, …
Investing In Hedge Funds When Returns Are Predictable, Doron Avramov, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Investing In Hedge Funds When Returns Are Predictable, Doron Avramov, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper evaluates hedge fund performance through portfolio strategies that incorporate predictability in managerial skills, fund risk loadings, and benchmark returns. Incorporating predictability substantially improves performance for the entire universe of hedge funds as well as various subsets based on investment styles. Such out-performance is strongest during market downturns when the marginal utility of consumption is relatively high. Moreover, the major source of investment profitability is predictability in managerial skills. In particular, long-only strategies that incorporate predictable skills outperform their Fung and Hsieh (2004) benchmarks by over 12 percent per year. The economic value of predictability obtains for various rebalancing …
Asian Hedge Funds: A Tale Of Three Cities, Melvyn Teo
Asian Hedge Funds: A Tale Of Three Cities, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre
The hedge fund industry in Asia is dominated by a trio of financial centres: Hong Kong, Singapore, and Sydney. In this inaugural issue of the statistical digest, we provide a broad overview of the hedge fund industry in Asia and zero in on issues relevant to investors. Our analysis will be organized along the lines of manager location. Accordingly, we ask the following questions: How are hedge fund assets deployed across the three centres? What investment strategies do these assets partake in? Does the risk-adjusted performance of those assets differ across centres? To shed light on these issues, we employ …
A Simple Model Of Interest Rate Term Structure, Tom Arnold
A Simple Model Of Interest Rate Term Structure, Tom Arnold
Finance Faculty Publications
Without much technical expertise, a yield curve model is presented that is very dynamic and can be easily programmed in Excel for classroom presentation or for assignments. By using the output of the model to have students find embedded rates within the yield curve, a discussion of how bond traders speculate on interest rates emerges very easily. Further, the model output can also be used for numerous exercises including the pricing of strips or for evaluating the positions of an entire bond portfolio. Within the exercises, the dynamic nature of the model can be exploited to provide sensitivity analysis.
Systematic Share Price Fluctuations After Bankruptcy Filings And The Investors Who Drive Them, Mark C. Dawkins, Nilabhra Bhattacharya, Linda Smith Bamber
Systematic Share Price Fluctuations After Bankruptcy Filings And The Investors Who Drive Them, Mark C. Dawkins, Nilabhra Bhattacharya, Linda Smith Bamber
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
Beginning in the 1990s, firms often continue to trade on the major national exchanges after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. For bankruptcies filed from 1993-2003, we find that the more negative the filing period price reaction, the more favorable the immediate post- filing returns, on average. This reversal is not attributable to bid-ask bounce, it holds after controlling for other factors associated with post-filing returns, and it appears more attributable to the activities of large traders than to small traders. Supplementary tests reveal that the pattern of post-filing returns differs significantly for bankruptcies filed in bull versus bear markets. Bankruptcies filed …
Do Hedge Funds Deliver Alpha? A Bayesian And Bootstrap Analysis, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Do Hedge Funds Deliver Alpha? A Bayesian And Bootstrap Analysis, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre
Using a robust bootstrap procedure, we find that top hedge fund performance cannot be explained by luck, and that hedge fund performance persists at annual horizons. Moreover, we show that Bayesian measures, which help overcome the short-sample problem inherent in hedge fund returns, lead to superior performance predictability. Relative to sorting on OLS alphas, sorting on Bayesian alphas yields a 5.5 percent per year increase in the alpha of the spread between the top and bottom hedge fund deciles. Our results are robust, and relevant to investors, as they are neither confined to small funds, nor driven by incubation bias, …
Do Hedge Funds Deliver Alpha? A Bayesian And Bootstrap Analysis, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Do Hedge Funds Deliver Alpha? A Bayesian And Bootstrap Analysis, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Using a robust bootstrap procedure, we find that top hedge fund performance cannot be explained by luck, and that hedge fund performance persists at annual horizons. Moreover, we show that Bayesian measures, which help overcome the short-sample problem inherent in hedge fund returns, lead to superior performance predictability. Relative to sorting on OLS alphas, sorting on Bayesian alphas yields a 5.5 percent per year increase in the alpha of the spread between the top and bottom hedge fund deciles. Our results are robust, and relevant to investors, as they are neither confined to small funds, nor driven by incubation bias, …
Optimal Liquidation Strategies And Their Implications, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka, Yonggan Zhao
Optimal Liquidation Strategies And Their Implications, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka, Yonggan Zhao
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper studies optimal liquidation when the selling price depends on the rate of liquidation, transaction time, volume, and the asset's intrinsic value. A generic closed-form solution for maximizing the discounted liquidation proceeds is derived. To obtain financial insights, three parametric specifications that proxy for increasingly realistic market conditions are examined. In our framework, maximizing liquidation proceeds and minimizing liquidity costs are equivalent. The optimal strategies imply more rapid liquidations in less liquid markets. We also show that volatility is stochastic when market liquidity is unpredictable.
Realized Daily Variance Of S&P500 Cash Index: A Revaluation Of Stylized Facts, Shirley J. Huang, Qianqiu Liu, Jun Yu
Realized Daily Variance Of S&P500 Cash Index: A Revaluation Of Stylized Facts, Shirley J. Huang, Qianqiu Liu, Jun Yu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In this paper, the realized daily variance is obtained from intraday transaction prices of the S&P 500 cash index over the period from January 1993 to December 2004. When constructing realized daily variance, market microstructure noise is taken into account using a technique proposed by Zhang, Mykland, and Ait-Sahalia (2005). The time series properties of realized daily variance are compared with those of variance estimates obtained from parametric GARCH and stochastic volatility models. Unconditional and dynamic properties concerning the realized daily variance are examined, the relationship between realized variance and returns is investigated, and the stylized facts concerning realized daily …
On Stiffness In Affine Asset Pricing Models, Shirley Junying Huang, Jun Yu
On Stiffness In Affine Asset Pricing Models, Shirley Junying Huang, Jun Yu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Economic and econometric analysis of continuous-time affine asset pricing models often necessitates solving systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) numerically. Explicit RungeûKutta (ERK) methods have been suggested to solve these ODEs both in the theoretical finance literature and in the financial econometrics literature. In this paper we show that under many empirically relevant circumstances the ODEs involve stiffness, a phenomenon which leads to some practical difficulties for numerical methods with a finite region of absolute stability, including the whole class of ERK methods. The difficulties are highlighted in the present paper in the context of pricing zero-coupon bonds as well …
A Cardan’S Discriminant Approach To Predicting Currency Crashes, Benedict Seng Kee Koh, Wai Mun Fong, Fabrice Chan
A Cardan’S Discriminant Approach To Predicting Currency Crashes, Benedict Seng Kee Koh, Wai Mun Fong, Fabrice Chan
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper models large swings in exchange rates by introducing nonlinearity via the generalized normal (GEN) distribution [Lye, J.N., Martin, V.L., 1993. Robust estimation, nonnormalities and generalized exponential distributions. Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, 261-267]. As the distribution allows for bimodality, a switch between modes may give rise to currency crashes. A statistic known as Cardan's discriminant, based on the shape parameters of the GEN, is used to detect bimodality. The Cardan's discriminant is found to reliably predict currency crashes for eight emerging countries and generate relatively low false signals for stable currencies.
Liquidity, Credit Risk And Pricing Of Corporate Bond, Xiaoli Sun
Liquidity, Credit Risk And Pricing Of Corporate Bond, Xiaoli Sun
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
Employing a comprehensive database on transactions of corporate bonds issued by corporations, agencies and financial institutions, we compare the different liquidity measures--bid-ask spread, zero-return percentage, Amihud illiquidity factor for the corporate bond market. The criteria of judging is based on the explanatory power of different liquidity measures in determining yield spread over the benchmark curve (equivalent-maturity Treasury bond or notes). The conclusion is that liquidity plays a role in determining corporate bond yield spread. There are significant differences in the explanatory power of the different liquidity measures; among the liquidity measures, zero-return percentage works best. Preliminary findings, based on the …
Synthetic Collateral Debt Obligation Pricing, Zhanyong Liu
Synthetic Collateral Debt Obligation Pricing, Zhanyong Liu
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
Portfolio credit products, such as CDO and Single Tranche CDO (STCDO) have gained their popularity in financial industry. The key problem facing by the financial engineers is how to price these portfolio credit derivatives, especially how to model the dependent default structure. Copula model proposed by Li (2000) is widely used in practice. Comparing with simulation, factor copula model and conditional independent framework provide good balance between accuracy and computational efficiency, but it is hard to achieve good performance if sticking to normal distribution. There are a few ways to improve it: introducing Levy distributions, using generic copula functions, and …
The Predictability Of Overnight Information, Zhuo Zhong
The Predictability Of Overnight Information, Zhuo Zhong
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
By decomposing close to close returns into close to open returns (overnight returns) and open to close returns (daytime returns), we test the predictability of overnight information, which is captured by absolute values of close to open returns, on daytime return volatility. Applying the stochastic volatility model, we find that overnight price changes contain important information to predict daytime volatility. The predictive power is highest at market opening and declines gradually over the trading day. Moreover, the predictive power is higher for inactive traded stocks than for actively traded stocks.
Periodically Collapsing Bubbles In The Asian Emerging Stock Markets, Ako Doffou
Periodically Collapsing Bubbles In The Asian Emerging Stock Markets, Ako Doffou
WCBT Faculty Publications
This paper investigates empirically the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in the Asian emerging stock markets using the Enders-Siklos (2001) momentum threshold autoregressive model. As explained in Bohl (2003), this non-linear time series technique can be used to analyze bubble driven run-ups in stock prices followed by a crash in a non- cointegration framework with asymmetric adjustment. This technique offers a more potent insight in the stock prices behavior than can possibly be obtained using conventional non-cointegration tests. The empirical findings for ten Asian emerging stock markets from 1993 to 2005 refute the bubble hypothesis.
Abnormal Trading Volume, Stock Returns And The Momentum Effects, Ying Zheng
Abnormal Trading Volume, Stock Returns And The Momentum Effects, Ying Zheng
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
This paper intends to study the intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversal of stock prices by investigating the informational role of unusual trading volume for winner and loser stocks. I argue that unusual trading volume has different implications for winner and loser stocks. Specifically, high trading volume for losers is driven by purchases made by informed investors; while high trade volume for winners could be driven by either information or representativeness bias or both. The arguments are tested in the paper by showing that in the short run, losers/winners with high abnormal trading volume outperform losers/winners with low abnormal trading volume; …
Do Warrants Lead The Underlying Stocks And Index Futures?, Ying Kui Lin
Do Warrants Lead The Underlying Stocks And Index Futures?, Ying Kui Lin
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
The lead-lag relation between options and stocks has been a subject of controversy for years with conflicting findings in the literature. In this thesis, we present an intuitive method to examine the lead-lag relation, if any, in the tick-by-tick data of covered warrants and their underlying stocks or underlying index futures. Our method is non-parametric and needs no assumptions which are critical to the regression-based methods. We find that the electronically traded warrants do not lead stocks or index futures; the movements in the warrants' quotes provide little information about the quotes of the underlying stocks or index futures. Instead, …
Interest Rate Uncertainty And Stock Market Volatility, Jincai Xu
Interest Rate Uncertainty And Stock Market Volatility, Jincai Xu
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
The reason for volatility changing over time is still open. As stated in the extant papers uncertainty of Macroeconomic variable plays more important role in explaining the time varying of volatility than the volatility of Macroeconomic variable itself. In this paper we illustrate this with exploring the relationship between stock market volatility and the Interest Uncertainty. In the paper, we take the uncertainty of the decision of FOMC meeting as the uncertainty of interest rate. As we know, asset price is a tool for people to express their belief about the state of the economy, when uncertainty is high, a …
On The Calibration Of The Libor Market Model, U Lagunzad Demelinda
On The Calibration Of The Libor Market Model, U Lagunzad Demelinda
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
This thesis presents a study of LIBOR market model calibration. In particular, the study builds on the prevailing calibration methodologies in an attempt to find a method that simultaneously recovers implied volatility and forward rate correlations structures from market prices of plain vanilla options. In order to ensure that complex derivative pricing and hedging requirements are jointly addressed, the study extends the performance analysis of calibration methods from a static level of goodness-of-fit with market prices test, to a dynamic level of approximation to next period's LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) dynamics when tested on a series of market prices. …
What Explains Credit Default Swaps Bid-Ask Spread?, Yaru Chen
What Explains Credit Default Swaps Bid-Ask Spread?, Yaru Chen
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
The pace at which the Credit default swaps (CDS) has been growing since its inception topped all projections. Despite the rapid growth, there is still room for enhancement of liquidity in the CDS market. Asymmetric information is another concern of investors in CDS market, however, some literature addressed that it may not be as serious as regarded. Bid-ask spreads is commonly used as a proxy of both liquidity and asymmetric information. Our empirical study confirms that CDS bid-ask spread has explanatory power to CDS premium. We then investigate the liquidity component in CDS bid-ask spreads. We use the bond age, …
Risky Debt-Maturity Choice Under Information Asymmetry, Chunchi Wu, Sheen Liu
Risky Debt-Maturity Choice Under Information Asymmetry, Chunchi Wu, Sheen Liu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The traditional equilibrium models of signaling with debt-maturity require transaction costs by firms when raising new capital. In this paper, we propose a new model that has no such requirement. We demonstrate that a separating equilibrium of debt-maturity choice exists under a much more general condition, once accounting for the interactions between borrowers and lenders. The model is able to explain the observed complex financial structure. It is found that callable debt functions much like short-term debt, and serial debt similar to long-term debt. In equilibrium, high-quality firms issue short-term debt, and low-quality firms issue long-term debt.