Portfolio and Security Analysis Commons^™

Fixed Income Fund Report, December 2017, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Implementing The Heston Option Pricing Model In Object-Oriented Cython, Brandon Hardin

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The 1973 Black-Scholes model, a revolutionary option pricing formula whose price is 'relatively close to observed prices, makes an assumption that the volatility is constant and thus, deterministic. This causes some inefficiencies and patterns in the pricing of options due to the model providing evidence of the volatility smile' of the volatility. Many scholars have suggested that the volatility should be modelled by a stochastic process and the (1993) Heston Model is one of many proposed solutions to remedy this problem. The Heston Model allows for the 'smile' by defining the volatility as a stochastic process. This thesis considers a …

Volume Information In Nikkei And Topix Futures Transactions, Chyng Wen Tee, Christopher Ting

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

According to the Kyle (1985) model of informed trading, information in trade size is likely to effect a permanent price impact. However, two prominent structural models in the literature do not include trade size in their framework. In this paper, we present a nesting relationship of major structural models and formulate a generalized model that includes all trade variables. A new measure to quantify the amount of information in the order flow is proposed. Our empirical analysis shows that it is indeed the "surprise" in trade size that contributes significantly in reflecting the price change of Nikkei and TOPIX futures.

Hedge Fund Franchises, William Fung, David Hsieh, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Duplicate, see https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/5964/. We investigate the growth strategies of hedge fund firms. We find that firms with successful first funds are able to launch follow-on funds that charge higher performance fees, set more onerous redemption terms, and attract greater inflows. Motivated by the aforementioned spillover effects, first funds outperform follow-on funds, after adjusting for risk. The multiple-product growth strategy hurts investors while benefiting hedge fund firms; multiple-product firms underperform single-product firms but harvest greater fee revenues. Investors respond to this growth strategy by redeeming from first funds of firms with follow-on funds that do poorly. Moreover, skilled investors allocate …

Sell Side Benchmarks, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Sell-side analysts employ different benchmarks when defining their stock recommendations. For example, a ‘buy’ for some brokers means the stock is expected to outperform its peers in the same sector (“sector benchmarkers”), while for other brokers it means the stock is expected to outperform the market (“market benchmarkers”), or just some absolute return (“total benchmarkers”). We explore the validity and implications of the adoption of these different benchmarks. Analysis of the relation between analysts’ recommendations and their long-term growth and earnings forecasts suggests that analysts indeed abide by their benchmarks: Sector benchmarkers rely less on across-industry information, and focus more …

Dr. Harold C. Smith Fund Of Ursinus College Official Prospectus, November 28, 2017, Johnathan Myers, Benjamin R. Klybor, Isaac Abrams, Daan Slaats, Parker Wolf, Sam Sjosten, Christian D'Ascenzo, Jonathan Guba, Joseph Heasley, Thomas Kelly, Brendan Werner, Scott Deacle

Ursinus Student-Managed Investment Fund Prospectus

This prospectus contains investment strategy and performance for the following stocks in the managed fund: Garmin Ltd., Masimo, Micron Technology, Stoneridge and WalMart Stores, Inc.

Fixed Income Fund Report, November 2017, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Geopolitics Of Rare Earth Elements, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Presentations

Rare earth elements (REE) contain unique chemical physical properties such as lanthamum, are found in small concentrations, need extensive precise properties to separate, and are critical components of modern technologies such as laser guidance systems, personal electronics such as IPhones, satellites, and military weapons systems as varied as Virginia-class fast attack submarines, DDG-51 Aegis destroyers, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, and precision guided munitions. The U.S. has some rare earth resources, but is heavily dependent on access to them from countries as varied as Afghanistan, Bolivia, and China. Losing access to these resources would have significant adverse economic, military, and …

Evaluating Volatility Forecasts In Various Equity Market Regimes, John P. Felletter

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

Forecasting volatility is a critical component of asset allocation, risk management, and option pricing. Many different methods and models are used to predict volatility, and many studies have examined the efficacy of one method or another. This study investigates whether the abilities of historical volatility, GARCH models, and VIX to forecast volatility vary in different market conditions, as distinguished by levels of volatility and returns. It is found that market conditions do impact the abilities of the variables to forecast volatility. Overall, the forecasts implied by the GARCH models perform best according to the various metrics, while the VIX forecast …

Essays On The El Niño Anomaly And Stock Return Predictability, Zhijun Yang

Finance Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation is to examine the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on the international stock market, both at the aggregate level and the portfolio level.

In first essay, I study the predictive relation between the El Niño phenomenon and international stock market aggregate returns. I find that the El Niño anomaly can predict all 14 countries’ stock returns. Specifically, the El Niño unconditional effect can predict stock return negatively in Japan, Malaysia, and South Africa, while the El Niño conditional on winter season can predict positively stock returns in 13 countries’ stock markets except for Japan. This conditional effect …

Gender And Connections Among Wall Street Analysts, Lily Hua Fang, Sterling Huang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We examine how alumni ties with corporate boards differentially affect male and female analysts’ job performance and career outcomes. Connection improves men’s job performance — forecasting accuracy and recommendation impact — significantly more than women’s. Controlling for performance, connection further contributes to men’s, but not women’s, likelihood of being voted by institutional investors as “star” analysts, a marker of career success. These asymmetric effects are stronger in more opaque firms and among younger analysts, but is absent from a placebo test. Our evidence indicates that men reap higher benefits from social networks than women in both job performance and subjective …

Dividend Policy In A Frontier Market And Sector Equity Traded Funds In The United States, Abdulrahman Alharbi

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

In chapter 1, we examine the nature and scale of the relationship between returns on sector Equity Traded Funds (ETFs) and their volatility. We discuss the source and direction of the effect between returns and risk and whether behavioral biases are prominent among sector ETFs. The study has implications for financial sector practitioners and investors, as it provides more information about the risk in sector ETF and whether that risk differs from that of other investment instruments. To this end, we test three hypotheses based on the relevant literature on volatility and returns: the leverage effect hypothesis, feedback hypothesis, and …

Healthcare Sector Stock Returns And The Election Of Donald J. Trump, Cordell Hull

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The 2016 US Presidential Election was hallmarked by significant policy differences between the Democratic and Republican parties. Healthcare reform was one of the most significant and highly debated issues between the candidates; Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) and Donald J. Trump (R-NY). The Republican platform of repeal and replace was in direct opposition to the expansionary viewpoints of the Democratic Party which was to promote increased regulations on the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries. The media narrative in the months preceding the election assumed a Democratic victory as a sure thing. The New York Times gave Hillary Clinton a 98.5% chance of …

Are Capital Market Anomalies Common To Equity And Corporate Bond Markets?, Tarun Chordia, Amit Goyal, Yoshio Nozowa, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Qing Tong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper studies whether the commonly analyzed equity return predictors also predict corporate bond returns. Bond markets do price risk, but are also susceptible to delayed information transmission relative to equities. Firm size and profitability are negatively priced while idiosyncratic volatility is positively priced, suggesting that large firms, more profitable firms and relatively less volatile firms are more attractive to bond investors, thus requiring lower returns. Consistent with a relatively sophisticated institutional clientele, bonds are efficiently priced in that none of the behaviorally-motivated variables provide profitable trading strategies after accounting for transactions costs, though some risk-based variables continue to do …

The Real Effect Of The Initial Enforcement Of Insider Trading Laws, Zhihong Chen, Yan Huang, Yuanto Kusnadi, K. C. John Wei

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Based on a difference-in-differences approach, we find strong evidence that the initial enforcement of insider trading laws improves capital allocation efficiency. The effect is concentrated in developed markets and manifests shortly after the enforcement year. Further analysis shows that the improvement is positively associated with the increase in liquidity around the enforcement year and the opaqueness of the information environment before the enforcement year. The improvement is more pronounced for firms operating in more competitive markets, being more financially constrained, and with more severe agency problems. Finally, we find increased accounting performance after the enforcement and the increase is positively …

Project Portfolio Management And Its Effect On Organizational Culture Through The Competing Values Framework, Brian Wiersma

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

Project portfolio management (PPM) is a growing business practice and field of academic study, and is recognized for positively impacting return on investment (ROI), project success, and organizational performance. Despite this growth, there is inconsistent use of PPM, and minimal research examining a connection between PPM and organizational culture. The problem addressed was a lack portfolio management practice established for the allocation of human resources within a group of retail stores located in the Midwest. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect implementing PPM practice into the human resource allocation process has on the organizational culture. Utilizing …

Shades Of Darkness: A Pecking Order Of Trading Venues, Albert J. Menkveld, Bart Zhou Yueshen, Haoxiang Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We characterize the dynamic fragmentation of U.S. equity markets using a unique data set that disaggregates dark transactions by venue types. The "pecking order" hypothesis of trading venues states that investors "sort" various venue types, putting low-cost-low-immediacy venues on top and high-cost-high-immediacy venues at the bottom. Hence, midpoint dark pools on top, non-midpoint dark pools in the middle, and lit markets at the bottom. As predicted, following VIX shocks, macroeconomic news, and firms' earnings surprises, changes in venue market shares become progressively more positive (or less negative) down the pecking order. We further document heterogeneity across dark venue types and …

Dr. Harold C. Smith Fund Of Ursinus College Official Prospectus, May 2, 2017, Johnathan Myers, Benjamin R. Klybor, Isaac Abrams, Daan Slaats, Parker Wolf, Sam Sjosten, Scott Deacle

Ursinus Student-Managed Investment Fund Prospectus

This prospectus contains investment strategy and performance for the following stocks in the managed fund: Enanta Pharmaceuticals, Garmin Ltd., Pioneer Natural Resources and WalMart Stores, Inc.

Portfolio Insurance Using Leveraged Etfs, Jeffrey George

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This study examines the use of leveraged exchange traded funds (LETFs) within a portfolio insurance framework to reduce exposure to downside risk. Investors have learned the importance of mitigating this risk having experienced two “once in a century” events in the last 20 years with the tech crash in the early 2000s and the financial crisis in 2008. Current portfolio insurance strategies are either option based (Leland & Rubinstein, 1976) or constant proportional portfolio insurance (CPPI), (Black & Jones, 1987). The cost of option based strategies can be quite high while a CPPI strategy requires constant rebalancing.

This study combines …

Public Fund Strategic Asset Allocation To Hedge Funds: A Time Series Analysis, Morgan Steadwell

Honors College Theses

Public funds represent some of the U.S.’ largest institutional investors. These funds are a pool of money saved for retirement by those who are still working. Boards of Directors of these funds have strict standards for their investments, as the money they are investing is not their own; rather, it comes from the thousands of workers that pay into the funds. Alternative investments such as private equity, private debt, real assets, real estate, and hedge funds are historically more risky than traditional public equities or fixed income investments. Recently, public funds’ investments in hedge funds have been called into question …

Behavioral Finance And Its Impact On Investing, Jordan Fieger

Senior Honors Theses

The field of behavioral finance has seen incredible growth over the past half century as it has explored the effect that cognitive psychological biases can have on investors’ financial decisions. Behavioral finance stands in stark contrast to the efficient market hypothesis, as it attributes market inefficiencies to investors who are not perfectly rational human beings. It offers a solution to the observed 3.5% gap that active equity investors miss out on in the market compared to passive index funds, which it attributes to their emotions and psychological biases. These common human biases can be grouped into five major categories: heuristics, …

Performance Control And Risk Calibration In The Black-Litterman Model, Chyng Wen Tee, Shirley Huang, Kian Guan Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School of Business

The authors show that risk aversion and prior estimation error input parameters of the Black-Litterman model that are arbitrarily fixed in existing practices should instead be carefully calibrated because they are related to the Sharpe performance ratio and Value at Risk or tail risk of the active portfolio. A related important insight is that these parameters are not entirely exogenous but are connected closely to the portfolio manager's inputs of subjective expected returns, as well as the degree of confidence over these subjective beliefs. The value of τ is closer to zero if the manager believes the initial estimates based …

Sustainable Portfolios To Maximize Alpha, Douglas Stephen Carey

Honors Theses

There has been a new movement for investment funds to align with investor morals. They are known as Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) funds, and have become a strong focus for asset management firms. Currently these funds have a negative stigma because most investors believe that due to added constraints on these portfolios, they will not be able to outperform non-sustainable portfolios. This is why the sustainable investment portfolios will be created. The portfolios undergo two focuses. The first portfolio employs a negative screening, which means that the portfolio will exclude specific industries that are deemed unsustainable. The other portfolio …

The Subprime Mortgage Collapse And Its Effects On The Economy, Joseph Krmpotich

Senior Honors Theses

The subprime mortgage crisis occurred due to a number of factors. Included in these factors were the issuance of subprime loans, the securitization of mortgages in the investment banking system, and the deregulation and ultimate failure of the shadow banking system. These causes were evident in both historical trends in the stock market as well as the macroeconomic data leading into the crash. They were perpetuated by investors, mortgage brokers, and banks taking on an abnormal amount of risk in the early 2000s for both psychological and behavioral reasons. These causes, while less than obvious at the time, have, with …

Counterfeiting The Naira Notes: Issues, Trends And Measurements., Kingsley Imandojemu

Bullion

Currency counterfeiting is o worldwide phenomenon of great importance to currency management and monetary policy execution. This has resulted in transatlantic corporation and synergy in combating the malaise in addition to the efforts of the monetary authorities towards ensuring that banknotes are not susceptible to counterfeiting. Notwithstanding the zero currency counterfeit stance of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the menace remain unabated. The paper through the lens of available literature, identified issues and trends that undermine the effort of the Central Bank of Nigeria geared towards ensuring that banknotes are not susceptible to counterfeiting and also developed methodological framework for …

Sensation-Seeking Hedge Funds, Stephen Brown, Yan Lu, Sugata Ray, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a novel dataset of hedge fund manager automobile purchases, we show that, motivated by sensation seeking, hedge fund managers often take risk for personal and non-pecuniary reasons. In line with the sensation seeking view, managers who own powerful sports cars take on more investment risk but do not deliver higher returns, resulting in lower Sharpe ratios. Moreover, funds managed by performance car owners exhibit higher operational risk and are more likely to fail. Performance car owners demonstrate other attributes associated with sensation seeking, such as a preference for lottery-like stocks, unconventional strategies, and active trading.

International Volatility Risk And Chinese Stock Return Predictability, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Yangshu Liu, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the predictive ability of international volatility risks for the daily Chinese stock market returns. We employ the innovations in implied volatility indexes of seven major international markets as our international volatility risk proxies. We find that international volatility risks are negatively associated with contemporaneous Chinese daily overnight stock returns, while positively forecast next-day Chinese daytime stock returns. The US volatility risk (ΔVIX) is particularly powerful in forecasting Chinese stock returns, and plays a dominant role relative to the other six international volatility measures. ΔVIX's forecasting power remains strong after controlling for Chinese domestic volatility and is robust …

Playing Fast And Furious In The Stock Market, Singapore Management University

Research@SMU: Connecting the Dots

Surprising insights into the role of high frequency traders and short sellers revealed by Professor Ekkehart Boehmer’s research.

See the papers:

• Short selling and the price discovery process
• Which shorts are informed?
• The competitive landscape of high-frequency trading firms
• The Good News in Short Interest

How Hedge Funds Beat The Market, Singapore Management University

Research@SMU: Connecting the Dots

From epic tales spun around investment legends Ray Dalio and George Soros, to the secretive, high-octane world of Wall Street, the hedge fund has attained a worldwide notoriety for being an opaque, unwieldy beast. Professor Melvyn Teo studies what makes them tick.

See the papers:

• The geography of hedge funds
• The liquidity risk of liquid hedge funds; The liquidity risk of liquid hedge funds
• Limited attention, marital events and hedge funds

The Impact Of Monetary Policy On The Equity Market, Simin Hojat, Mohammad Sharifzadeh

International Journal of Applied Management and Technology

The problem is that prior studies examining the impact of monetary policy instruments on the equity market have produced mixed results. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of changes in money supply (M2), federal funds rate (FFR), and federal funds futures on the expected rate of returns of publicly traded companies. We developed and tested a multifactor capital asset pricing model and applied regression methodologies suitable for panel data analysis to analyze the data. The multiple regression results showed positive moderation effect of M2, and negative moderation and mediation effects of FFR and federal funds futures …