Portfolio and Security Analysis Commons^™

Woulda, Shoulda, Coulda? The Impact Of Predictive, Prescriptive, And Prospective Expectations On Stakeholder Reactions, Yuri Mishina, Maxine Yu, David Gomulya

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

When and why might stakeholders react to firm activities in ways that might be different than, or even contradictory to, what we might expect based on the extant research? We draw on expectancy violation theory (EVT) and bring in the notion of heuristics and future-oriented expectations to examine this question, using a sample of investor reactions to earnings surprises from 2013 to 2019. We find that, in addition to comparing earnings to consensus earnings estimates, investors appear to compare the earnings surprises to the firm’s past performance and to its peers. Importantly, their expectations regarding future interactions with the firm …

Impact Of Attention And Yield Curve On Term Structure Of Equity, Matthew C. Aved

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the term structure of equity and specifically focuses on the impact of term spread and market attention. The paper builds on prior work that developed the concept by adding behavioral explanations for differences between the short-term and long-term returns while also attempting to link the term structure of equity and the bond yield curve. The study examines these influences by running t-tests and regressions on dividend strip and S&P 500 return data (1996-2017) and attention data collected by Bloomberg (2010-2017). The results provide some insight into how these variables influence short-term and long-term returns; however, limited instances …

Individual Or Team Analyst Reports? The Organization Of Analyst Research Activities, Xia Chen, Ning Jia, Dan Wang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Given the importance of research resource allocation within brokerage firms, we examine key factors that influence the issuance of individual vs. team analyst reports. Using a comprehensive sample of analyst reports from China for the 2008-2021 period, we find that this decision is influenced by (1) the brokerage firm's client interests, whereby firms held by the brokerage firm's mutual fund clients and firms that are the brokerage firm's underwriting clients receive more team than individual reports from the brokerage firm, and (2) the nature of corporate events, whereby routine events receive more team reports and nonroutine events receive more individual …

Is Carbon Risk Priced In The Cross Section Of Corporate Bond Returns?, Tinghua Duan, Frank Weikai Li, Quan Wen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article examines the pricing of a firm’s carbon risk in the corporate bond market. Contrary to the “carbon risk premium” hypothesis, bonds of more carbon-intensive firms earn significantly lower returns. This effect cannot be explained by a comprehensive list of bond characteristics and exposure to known risk factors. Investigating sources of the low carbon alpha, we find the underperformance of bonds issued by carbon-intensive firms cannot be fully explained by divestment from institutional investors. Instead, our evidence is most consistent with investor underreaction to the predictability of carbon intensity for firm cash-flow news, creditworthiness, and environmental incidents.

Deconstructing The Greenium: Exploring Mispricing In The Green Bond Market, Koto Yamada

Honors Theses

This paper investigates the sources and conditions under which the greenium – a yield discount observed for green bonds relative to comparable conventional bonds – appears in global fixed income markets. Using a dataset of over 26,000 bonds issued between 2012 and 2024 across 37 countries and 5,400 firms, I find that the existence of the greenium is highly context-dependent, shaped by factors such as issuer reputation, institutional trust, and green capital allocation across sectors. Repeat green issuers receive yield discounts of up to 57 basis points, particularly in the EU and Nordic countries, where strong climate policies and disclosure …

Taking Stock: Investigating The Relationship Between Stock-Based Compensation And Share Price Performance In Public Software Companies, Ethan Choi

CMC Senior Theses

There has been considerable debate around the practice of compensating employees and executives using stock-based compensation (“SBC”). Studies point to a myriad of both benefits and drawbacks of SBC; while in practice, firms with high SBC intensity have harmed shareholders through share count dilution. One industry in particular has drawn sharp investor criticism for its SBC intensity: software. Despite the software sector’s growing importance to the economy and influence in the public markets, no academic literature has analyzed the impacts of SBC on software companies specifically. Filling the gap, investor literature has sought to examine this topic in the context …

Optimizing Bitcoin Allocation: Predictability Of Bitcoin Portfolio Weights Through Macroeconomic Variables, Kirby Baynes

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines whether Bitcoin is a beneficial asset in a diversified, mean-variance optimized portfolio and whether its portfolio weights can be reliably predicted using macroeconomic variables. Using data from December 2013 to February 2025, the analysis applies rolling-window portfolio optimization and OLS regressions with Newey-West standard errors to test the relationship between Bitcoin allocations and a set of macroeconomic indicators. Results show that Bitcoin receives non-zero weights across portfolios and that its optimal allocation is sensitive to variables such as changes in the Credit Spread and Yield Curve. These variables were statistically significant in several models and produced meaningful …

A Financial Valuation Of Comcast (Cmcsa), Lucas Marcinkowski

Honors Thesis

The current valuation of the global entertainment and media industry revenue is $2.32 trillion. When investing in the entertainment and media industry, individuals think of the fame and glamorous side of the entertainment industry. However, the industry is fiercely competitive and continuously evolving. Through examining the historical financial statement of the publicly traded media and technology conglomerate Comcast, as well as its competitors, I forecasted the future financial valuation of Comcast utilizing the Discounted Free Cash Flow and Public Comparable Firm Multiples models. This analysis examines the effects of the pandemic and other economic conditions on the entertainment and media …

Finance And Artificial Intelligence, Luke Schawang

Theses/Capstones/Creative Projects

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into finance represents a significant evolution in the industry, one that has been ongoing for years but is now accelerating rapidly. This paper explores the various forms and functions of AI, from reactive machines to the potential for superintelligence, and examines its impact on banking, business finance, and investing.

In banking, AI has bolstered cybersecurity and fraud detection, leveraging machine learning algorithms to continuously improve accuracy and efficiency. Similarly, in business finance, AI tools like chatbots and algorithms streamline processes, enhance productivity, and reduce costs. In investing, AI-driven solutions such as robo advisors offer …

Financial Literacy And Ipo Underpricing, Xiaoran Jia, Kiridaran G. Kanagaretnam, Chee Yeow Lim, Gerald J. Lobo

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Using an international sample of IPO firms and two country-level measures of financial literacy, we find strong evidence that financial literacy is negatively associated with IPO underpricing. In cross-sectional analyses, we find that the effect of financial literacy in reducing IPO underpricing is more pronounced when the information environment is less transparent. Employing path analysis, we document that information friction, firm transparency, and stock market participation are mechanisms that mediate this relationship. Our study contributes to and extends the literature by providing strong evidence that citizens' financial literacy has an important and consistent influence on IPO underpricing.

Intrafirm Knowledge Sharing In The Investment Research Industry, Artur Hugon, An-Ping Lin, Stanimir Markov

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We study interdepartment knowledge sharing in an investment research setting where the benefits are potentially significant for the brokerage and the capital market, but so are the frictions impeding it. Using hand-collected data on equity analyst access to in-house debt research expertise, we find significant benefits to equity analysts in the form of improved ability to forecast cash flows and to anticipate credit rating downgrades. Moreover, we find evidence that access to management and research expertise underlie in-house debt analysts' capacity to generate information beneficial to equity analysts. Finally, these benefits exist only in the presence of a collaborative brokerage …

The Impact Of Celebrity News On Entertainment Industry Stock Prices, Alexandra Widuri Ariani, Zaäfri Ananto Husodo

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

South Korea's entertainment industry has garnered global popularity. However, the competition between entertainment companies is fierce, necessitating strategies to ensure their survival, such as imposing restrictions on their artists to maintain their public image and trust. This study examined the impacts of celebrity news and activities on the stock returns of six major entertainment companies listed on the Korea Exchange (KRX) from 2018-2021. Employing the Fama-French 3 Factors Model regression, the study investigated the presence of abnormal returns. The findings indicate that comebacks and debuts elicit positive reactions and generate significant abnormal returns. Award acceptances and military service also elicit …

Market Reaction Test On Banks & Brokers Based On Bitcoin Price History. A Look At National Commercial Banks And Security Broker, Exchanges, And Service Stocks Following The Most Volatile Swings In Bitcoin’S Price., Payton Earl

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines if there is an inverse correlation between Bitcoin’s most volatile price swings and national commercial banks and security brokers, exchanges and service companies performance. Company performance in the dataset is measured by Cumulative Abnormal Returns during 2021 within a two-day period where Bitcoin has had the most significant uptick and downtick events. Using a market-adjusted model for my regression, it is concluded that Bitcoin’s largest uptick event did indeed have an inversely negative effect on traditional banks and trading securities companies, as the Cumulative Abnormal Returns were negative for my 107 observations and the event was statistically …

Endogenous Market Choice, Listing Regulations, And Ipo Spread: Evidence From The London Stock Exchange, Hafiz Hoque, John Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines the endogenous market choice and its impact on underwriter spread if Alternative Investment Market (AIM) IPOs that meet Main Market (MM) listing requirements had issued equity in the MM during the 1995–2021 period. We find that the spread is 1.33% higher in the AIM than the MM for IPO listings that meet the MM listing requirements. This finding suggests that AIM companies, meeting the MM listing requirements, could have saved more than £100 million by going public through the MM than the AIM market. We also find that this spread differential is attributed to the issuing firms' …

Project Planning And Control, Burim Isa Berisha Dr.Sc

International Journal of Business and Technology

Operations management is important because it relates to the creation of products and services on which we are all dependent. Operations management is also quite motivating; operations are the center of many changes that affect business - changes in customer preferences, changes in the supply chain caused by technologies based on the businesses where we work, where we want to work and so on.

Operations Management includes the role of operations management, the various characteristics of processes, management activities, the responsibilities of managers, and the timely evolution of Operations Management.

Operations Management is a constant change, fostering creativity which allows …

Management Of Small Enterprises And Family Businesses In The Republic Of Kosovo, Burim Isa Berisha Dr.Sc, Burim Berisha B.B

International Journal of Business and Technology

Small businesses represent the driving force of an economy. They are the key that enables the production and marketing of thousands of products and services thus becoming the basis for a sound economic development. Consequently, small businesses are of vital importance to the economy.

Small business is a generator of innovation and a source of new jobs. The trend shows that small businesses are the backbone of all developments and movements in the economic system.

The small business scope is present in almost every pore of social and economic life.

According to the Statistical Register for Businesses, there are 9,358 …

Assessing Diversification Of S&P500 And Cdx Indexes, Jeffrey A. Palma

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

In this paper, I conduct a study of comovement between equity and corporate bonds using S&P500 and Investment Grade and High Yield CDX Indexes to evaluate the diversification benefits of holding these assets in portfolios. I assess comovement and diversification potential using DCC-GARCH and copulas. This approach allows for a review of equity and credit linkages through multiple lenses and evaluation of how these relationships have evolved over time. In general, I find only modest potential for diversification between equity and CDX markets and strong evidence of increased comovement over time.

Stock Splits And Corporate Peer Effects, Albert J. Saad

Theses and Dissertations

We find that a company’s decision to execute a stock split is affected by the number of stock splits carried out by its peers. Through the use of a broad peer group construction methodology, we also reveal the presence of asymmetric effects with regard to companies of different market capitalization size. In the periods of 1983–1996 and 1997–2009 we find that firms are more likely to split their stock if more of their peers have recently done so. However, in the period of 2010–2019 we see that the opposite is true. These results provide further evidence on social learning from …

Price Comovement And Market Segmentation Of Chinese A- And H-Shares: Evidence From A Panel Latent-Factor Model, Yingjie Dong, Wenxin Huang, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the price comovement of cross-listed Chinese A- and H-shares using a panel model with latent factors and a heterogeneous long-run structure. Our model is more flexible than the cointegration system and is estimated using the data-driven Cup–Lasso method. The long-run H-share price discounts are heterogeneous across different groups of stocks. We have identified both stationary and nonstationary latent factors in the price differentials, which are driven by different economic variables. By analyzing the factor loadings of the nonstationary latent factor, we identify some trading-friction and information-friction variables that have effects on the price convergence between the A- …

Blockchain Games: What On And Off-Chain Factors Affect The Volatility, Returns, And Liquidity Of Gaming Crypto Tokens, Sumer Sareen

CMC Senior Theses

Blockchain games took the internet by storm as they offered a new way for users to play video games, own the assets in those games, and benefit monetarily from their efforts. Through Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) and cryptocurrencies, new, Web3 games ushered in a unique asset class for retail and institutional investors to diversify into and benefit from. This paper uses cross-sectional data from 30 blockchain gaming companies to identify on and off-chain factors that affect the company’s token volatility, returns, and liquidity. A multiple linear regression found the percentage of tokens dedicated to a company’s private sale and rewarding users, …

Endogenous Market Choice, Listing Regulations, And Ipo Spread: Evidence From The London Stock Exchange, Hafiz Hoque, John Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines the endogenous market choice and its impact on underwriter spread if Alternative Investment Market (AIM) IPOs that meet Main Market (MM) listing requirements had issued equity in the MM during the 1995–2021 period. We find that the spread is 1.33% higher in the AIM than the MM for IPO listings that meet the MM listing requirements. This finding suggests that AIM companies, meeting the MM listing requirements, could have saved more than £100 million by going public through the MM than the AIM market. We also find that this spread differential is attributed to the issuing firms' …

Forecasting Variance Swap Payoffs, Jonathan Dark, Xin Gao, Thijs Van Der Heijden, Federico Nardari

WCBT Faculty Publications

We investigate the predictability of payoffs from selling variance swaps on the S&P500, US 10-year treasuries, gold, and crude oil. In-sample analysis shows that structural breaks are an important feature when modeling payoffs, and hence the ex post variance risk premium. Out-of-sample tests, on the other hand, reveal that structural break models do not improve forecast performance relative to simpler linear (or state invariant) models. We show that a host of variables that had previously been shown to forecast excess returns for the four asset classes, contain predictive power for ex post realizations of the respective variance risk premia as …

Doing Well By Doing Good: Analyzing The Dynamics And Effectiveness Of Corporate Engagement, Gillian Meyers

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Sustainable investing and corporate climate action have grown exponentially in the last decade, generating a simultaneous need for customers, investors, and policymakers to determine when companies are genuinely achieving positive impact related to environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) factors. As a result, investors are increasingly employing ESG engagement, which typically takes the form of direct communication with holdings to determine and positively shape their impacts on their stakeholders. In this paper, I explore the reasoning for conducting ESG engagement and refute arguments against it. I fill an existing research gap by analyzing the benefits of ESG engagement to both …

Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor Hock Keong Ong

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This study analyzes the effect of geographical diversification on global private equity (PE) fund returns. I find that there is a negative correlation between geographical diversification and PE fund returns. To establish the causality between geographical diversification and PE fund returns, I employ an instrument variable analysis where the instrument used is the stock market capitalization value of the host country where the PE fund is based. My results apply to Net IRR, multiple and DPI as dependent variables used to proxy for PE fund returns in the main regression model. A one standard deviation increase in geographical diversification results …

Coinbase Global Inc. Strategic Audit, Decker Bobin

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

Coinbase is a cryptocurrency exchange founded in the U.S during 2012 by Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam. Coinbase’s application allows users to buy, sell, and exchange different cryptocurrencies on the open market. Cryptocurrencies are digital assets used as a medium to quickly transfer value, globally, without any middleman. Some cryptocurrencies have different technology than others, but all are based on blockchain, and cryptography. Blockchain technology allows transactions to be built into a chain that is forever accessible, hence the name “public ledger.” Cryptography is what ensures ultimate ownership, through seed phrases, and security through encryption. Coinbase has several large competitors …

A Strategic Audit Of Seaworld, Rachel Jendro

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

This project is a strategic audit for SeaWorld Entertainment. The purpose of this report is to analyze the firm through multiple different perspectives and analyze the competitive advantage the business is pursuing. The project considers internal and external environments, strategic leadership, organizational structure, and resources to determine if and what type of competitive advantage the firm holds. Furthermore, it considers current events and strategic decisions, and how those relate to the overall strategy. A strategic audit is crucial to understanding the innerworkings of a firm. The factors that were analyzed are interconnected and performing a strategic audit can allow for …

Uncertainty And Banks’ Security Holdings, Van Dan Dang, Hoang Chung Nguyen

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

The paper enriches the existing literature on financial intermediaries’ operations in the face of uncertainty by empirically examining the impact of banking uncertainty on banks’ security holdings. Using bank-level data in Vietnam during 2007–2019 to compute a micro uncertainty proxy based on the dispersion of bank shocks, we document that banking uncertainty tends to enhance total security holdings at banks. Decomposing aggregate securities into disaggregate components, we find that safer investments (including government bonds and financial institution bonds) dominate the overall impact of banking uncertainty on security holdings, which completely offset a drop in the volume of riskier investments (including …

The Impact Of Geopolitical Risk On Corporate Investment: Evidence From Turkish Firms, Omer Faruk Tan, Hakan Cavlak, Yasin Cebeci, Necati Güneş

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This study analyzes the effects of geopolitical risk on the corporate investment of 164 Turkish manufacturing firms listed in Borsa Istanbul (BIST). The time covers the period from 2005 to 2019, applying the system Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) estimator. The results indicate that geopolitical risk hurts corporate investment in Turkey. Under uncertainty induced by geographical risk, firms prefer to decline their investment. Additionally, financially constrained (non-dividend, small, young) firms are more negatively affected than financially unconstrained firms. Our findings are robust under alternative measures of geopolitical risk. Overall, this study reveals that geopolitical risk is a significant uncertainty affecting …

Securing The Overnight Rates: A Study Of Alternative Reference Rates In Illiquid Overnight Tri-Party Repo Markets, Michael Murphy

CMC Senior Theses

Since 2011, the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) has been on the way out for practitioners and researchers alike due to its manipulation in key bank quotes during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper intends to examine key rates being introduced as LIBOR substitutes, such as SOFR, BSBY, and Ameribor. Specific to its concern, the paper will back test these rates during times of illiquidity in both their respective markets and the broader financial markets to determine which rates will be able to sustain an abnormal drop in transaction volumes. Furthermore, this paper will try to determine whether a …

Conditional Relationship Between Distress Risk And Stock Returns, Su Hee Yun, Jung Min Kim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Purpose: Previous research on the relationship between a firm’s distress risk and future stock returns produces inconsistent results. This study attempts to explain the conflicting results of earlier studies by showing that systematic distress risk leads to positive rewards, while unsystematic distress risk leads to low stock returns. In addition, this study intends to elucidate the factors of systematic distress risk and unsystematic distress risk, respectively. In this way, this study informs the rational investor what kind of distress risk they should take. Design/methodology/approach: This study considers two distress-predictor sets to show a possibility between distress risk and stock returns …