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- Bai-Perron multiple breakpoint regression (2)
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Articles 1 - 24 of 24
Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis
Does Herding Behavior Exist In The Cryptocurrency Market?, Anis Mnif
Does Herding Behavior Exist In The Cryptocurrency Market?, Anis Mnif
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This paper examines herd behavior in the cryptocurrency market using data of the top 15 large cryptocurrencies and the CCi30 Index as a proxy for market return. The idea that investors mimic and follow the behavior of others in the cryptocurrency market rather than conducting their own research has received attention in the finance literature. The CSAD results in the static model detected herding but given the existence of structural breakdowns and nonlinearities in the data series, we opted to conduct a rolling window analysis. The results indicate strong herding behavior that fluctuates over time. Furthermore, results from the logistic …
Assessing Diversification Of S&P500 And Cdx Indexes, Jeffrey A. Palma
Assessing Diversification Of S&P500 And Cdx Indexes, Jeffrey A. Palma
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
In this paper, I conduct a study of comovement between equity and corporate bonds using S&P500 and Investment Grade and High Yield CDX Indexes to evaluate the diversification benefits of holding these assets in portfolios. I assess comovement and diversification potential using DCC-GARCH and copulas. This approach allows for a review of equity and credit linkages through multiple lenses and evaluation of how these relationships have evolved over time. In general, I find only modest potential for diversification between equity and CDX markets and strong evidence of increased comovement over time.
Forecasting Variance Swap Payoffs, Jonathan Dark, Xin Gao, Thijs Van Der Heijden, Federico Nardari
Forecasting Variance Swap Payoffs, Jonathan Dark, Xin Gao, Thijs Van Der Heijden, Federico Nardari
WCBT Faculty Publications
We investigate the predictability of payoffs from selling variance swaps on the S&P500, US 10-year treasuries, gold, and crude oil. In-sample analysis shows that structural breaks are an important feature when modeling payoffs, and hence the ex post variance risk premium. Out-of-sample tests, on the other hand, reveal that structural break models do not improve forecast performance relative to simpler linear (or state invariant) models. We show that a host of variables that had previously been shown to forecast excess returns for the four asset classes, contain predictive power for ex post realizations of the respective variance risk premia as …
Co-Jumps, Co-Jump Tests, And Volatility Forecasting: Monte Carlo And Empirical Evidence, Weijia Peng, Chun Yao
Co-Jumps, Co-Jump Tests, And Volatility Forecasting: Monte Carlo And Empirical Evidence, Weijia Peng, Chun Yao
WCBT Faculty Publications
This study classifies jumps into idiosyncratic jumps and co-jumps to quantitatively identify systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk by utilizing high-frequency data. We found that systematic risk occurs more frequently and has larger magnitudes than the idiosyncratic risk in an individual asset, which indicates that volatilities from one sector are largely derived from the contagious effect of other sectors. We further investigated the importance of idiosyncratic jumps and co-jumps to predict the sector-level S&P500 exchange-traded fund (ETF) volatility. It was found that the predictive content of co-jumps is higher than that of idiosyncratic jumps, suggesting that systematic risk is more informative …
Kalman Filter Vs Alternative Modeling Techniques And Applied Investment Strategies, Heather E. Dempsey
Kalman Filter Vs Alternative Modeling Techniques And Applied Investment Strategies, Heather E. Dempsey
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This thesis examines the efficacy of alternative modeling techniques to predict stock market returns modeled with time-varying coefficients with the goal of developing and implementing a trading strategy that yields excess returns. First, we determine the modeling technique with the smallest forecast error using historical predictors: the differenced dividend-price ratio, lagged S&P 500 returns, and the change in implied volatility. The candidate modeling techniques include both constant and recursive ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methods and diverges from previous return forecast literature with the comparison of a state-space model (SSM) cast as a VAR(1) process to each OLS technique. The …
Capital Allocation Imbalance And The Effects On Monetary Policy, Peter G. George
Capital Allocation Imbalance And The Effects On Monetary Policy, Peter G. George
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This paper examines the association between liquidity injections and capital allocations in the United States. In the analysis, liquidity injections are proxied by monetary base and the capital allocations are reflected by excess reserves, vault cash, total bank credit, and M2-M1. Monthly data are utilized for all variables for the sample period March 1984 – June 2020. Four Bai-Perron multiple breakpoint regressions and Markov switching estimations are employed to examine changeable patterns and interactions. The results indicate that liquidity injections are imbalanced and are allocated to total bank credit prior to quantitative easing, excess reserves prior to QE through post-QE, …
Global Recognition Of Sustainable Companies And The Search For Meaningful Returns, Jenny Gyurova Hite
Global Recognition Of Sustainable Companies And The Search For Meaningful Returns, Jenny Gyurova Hite
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
Can an investor realize meaningful returns by choosing sustainability? Global Knights publishes an annual 100 Global Most Sustainable companies list which has been announced each January in Davos, Switzerland since 2005. This paper examines the global recognition of the US sustainable companies which make that list and the presence of cumulative abnormal returns of their portfolio. Event study methodology is used to assess short and long term cumulative abnormal returns of a dynamic portfolio updated annually over 16 years to include those names. Standard Deviations and Sortino Ratios are evaluated to determine the comparative level of risk a potential investor …
The U.S. Presidential Election Cycle And Stock Market Returns, Georginus Ejiofor Ugwu
The U.S. Presidential Election Cycle And Stock Market Returns, Georginus Ejiofor Ugwu
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This paper analyzes the relationship between the presidential election year and the stock market returns in the United States by examining the monthly returns of the Standard &Poor’s 500 stock index from January 1959 to December 2019. In essence, I test whether stock market returns improve during presidential election year, consistent with the political business cycle (PBC) and its later offshoot, the ‘presidential election cycle (PEC) hypothesis, which assumes that incumbent presidents and their parties improve economic growth and the stock market outlook by embracing expansionary macroeconomic policy. I employ the Least Squares Regression tests on monthly S&P 500 index …
Do Institutional Investors Exploit Market Anomalies? New Evidence From Alternative Mutual Funds, Xin Gao, Ying-Chih Wang
Do Institutional Investors Exploit Market Anomalies? New Evidence From Alternative Mutual Funds, Xin Gao, Ying-Chih Wang
WCBT Faculty Publications
This paper investigates the anomaly trading behavior of a sample of mutual funds mimicking hedge fund strategies, namely alternative mutual funds (AMFs), based on both of their long and short equity positions. We document that AMFs trade on anomalies by buying underpriced stocks and short-selling overpriced peers. While AMFs’ buys and sells based on their long positions do not generate superior performance, their short-selling and covering activity based on their short positions significantly negatively predicts future abnormal returns. However, this predictability is mainly attributed to size and the nine anomaly characteristics considered. Overall, the results suggest that AMFs are sophisticated …
The Value Perspective: The Case Of Warren Buffet And His Investment Behavior Towards Apple, Walmart And Amazon, Shanhong Wu, Kermit Kuehn, Jing Jiang
The Value Perspective: The Case Of Warren Buffet And His Investment Behavior Towards Apple, Walmart And Amazon, Shanhong Wu, Kermit Kuehn, Jing Jiang
WCBT Faculty Publications
In this paper, we use metrics of Ben Graham’s value investing principle to examine the actions taken by Warren Buffet toward three prominent stocks: Amazon, Apple and Walmart. We find that decisions of investment/dis-investment and not-investment by Buffet toward the stocks are largely in line with Graham’s view on value investing. This paper provides in-depth analysis of value for three stocks and relates to research on the book-to-market anomaly in the finance literature.
Market Risk And Market-Implied Inflation Expectations, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Carolyne Cebrian Soper
Market Risk And Market-Implied Inflation Expectations, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Carolyne Cebrian Soper
WCBT Faculty Publications
We examine interactions between market risk and market-implied inflation expectations. We argue that these interactions are asymmetric and varied in time. Specifically, market risk becomes elevated by expectations of either very low or high expected inflation. Market risk does not react to expectations of moderate, stable inflation. In our analysis, market risk is proxied by VIX and market-implied inflation expectations are reflected by five- and ten-year breakeven inflation. We use daily data for 5 and 10 year breakeven inflation and VIX for the sample period January 3, 2003 – January 24, 2019 for empirical testing. We employ asymptotic VAR, multiple …
The Influence Of Publicly-Traded Reits And Market-Based Inflation Expectations On Daily-Priced Private Commercial Real Estate Returns, Tiffany Burns Gherlone
The Influence Of Publicly-Traded Reits And Market-Based Inflation Expectations On Daily-Priced Private Commercial Real Estate Returns, Tiffany Burns Gherlone
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
Investors requiring daily Net Asset Values (NAV) represent a large and growing source of capital for the private institutional real estate asset class. Defined contribution and other daily-valued vehicles are increasing their investments into private, direct commercial real estate through funds that estimate changes to income and values in order to mark a daily NAV. Utilizing nine years of daily data from the NCREIF Fund Index – Daily Priced, we optimize a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model with generalized error distribution parameterization (GARCH-GED) to better understand the influence of publicly-traded real estate securities and changes in market-implied inflation expectations on …
Financial Market Risk And Macroeconomic Stability Variables: Dynamic Interactions And Feedback Effects, Agnieszka M. Chomicz-Grabowska
Financial Market Risk And Macroeconomic Stability Variables: Dynamic Interactions And Feedback Effects, Agnieszka M. Chomicz-Grabowska
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This study investigates dynamic interactions and feedback effects between financial market risk proxied by VIX and key macroeconomic stability variables that include the rate of unemployment, headline inflation and market-based inflation expectations reflected by the breakeven inflation. I argue that market risk should play a stronger role in macroeconomic modeling and forecasting than it has been recognized thus far in the literature. I employ vector autoregression with impulse response functions, as well as two-state Markov switching tests to examine these interactions on the longest available US monthly data. The empirical tests show that the association between market risk and macroeconomic …
Stock Buyback Announcements: An Examination Of Abnormal Returns In Stock Price & Credit Default Swaps For S&P100 Companies, Alan L. Delfavero
Stock Buyback Announcements: An Examination Of Abnormal Returns In Stock Price & Credit Default Swaps For S&P100 Companies, Alan L. Delfavero
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This event study examines the short-run effect of stock buyback announcements on stock price and credit default swaps (CDS) exclusively for mega capitalization S&P 100 companies. The research sample consists of 53 S&P 100 companies and includes 133 buyback announcement events occurring between September 2011 and May 2018. The study utilizes the market model to estimate expected returns and to compute abnormal returns (AR) for equity and abnormal change (AC) in CDS. Based on an initial analysis, it’s determined that there is a statistically significant AR and cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for stock price, and a significant AC in CDS, …
Hedging With Volatility, Mário Alagoa
Hedging With Volatility, Mário Alagoa
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
A risk-averse investor with a long equity position is presumably interested in identifying a hedging strategy that protects the value of that investment. The common approach encompasses using either financial derivatives or holding assets (such as gold or Swiss francs) as portfolio hedges as they show negative correlation with equities. This paper proposes using volatility indexes as portfolio hedges instead; it shows that a volatility-based dynamic hedging strategy is the most effective at protecting the value of an equity investment.
Evaluating Volatility Forecasts In Various Equity Market Regimes, John P. Felletter
Evaluating Volatility Forecasts In Various Equity Market Regimes, John P. Felletter
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
Forecasting volatility is a critical component of asset allocation, risk management, and option pricing. Many different methods and models are used to predict volatility, and many studies have examined the efficacy of one method or another. This study investigates whether the abilities of historical volatility, GARCH models, and VIX to forecast volatility vary in different market conditions, as distinguished by levels of volatility and returns. It is found that market conditions do impact the abilities of the variables to forecast volatility. Overall, the forecasts implied by the GARCH models perform best according to the various metrics, while the VIX forecast …
Institutional Shareholding And Information Content Of Dividend Surprises: Re-Examining The Dynamics In Dividend-Reappearance Era, Abu S. Amin, Shantanu Dutta, Samir Saadi, Premal P. Vora
Institutional Shareholding And Information Content Of Dividend Surprises: Re-Examining The Dynamics In Dividend-Reappearance Era, Abu S. Amin, Shantanu Dutta, Samir Saadi, Premal P. Vora
WCBT Faculty Publications
We examine the role of institutional investors’ investment horizon on the information content associated with dividend announcement surprises in the “dividend-reappearance era”. We find that the presence of institutional investors negatively affects the announcement period cumulative abnormal return (CAR), which suggests that institutional investors reduce information content of dividend announcements. This result is primarily driven by the fact that institutional investors, especially the not-short-horizon investors, do not prefer dividend surprises – which leads to lower announcement period CAR. We do not find support for institutional investors’ informed trading argument. Our study reveals that in order to understand the dynamics between …
From Pit To Electronic Trading: Impact On Price Volatility, Lucjan T. Orlowski
From Pit To Electronic Trading: Impact On Price Volatility, Lucjan T. Orlowski
WCBT Faculty Publications
This paper investigates the dynamics of price volatility and trading volume of 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures within the context of transition from pit to electronic trading. The analysis is conducted over four discernible phases of futures trading evolution: the pit-only phase, the leap to electronic trading, and the electronic trading dominant phase, which is divided further into two periods, the before and after the financial crisis of 2007/2009. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with in-mean conditional variance and generalized error distribution parameterization (GARCH-M-GED) tests are conducted to examine the conditional volatility of total returns index as a function of trading …
Tracking Errors Of Exchange Traded Funds And Index Funds, Rupendra Paliwal
Tracking Errors Of Exchange Traded Funds And Index Funds, Rupendra Paliwal
WCBT Working Papers
Exchange traded funds (ETF) are one of the recent financial innovations widely viewed as significantly better investments than mutual funds given their lower fee structure and tax efficiency. Individual investors are increasingly using ETFs tracking most popular stock indices to achieve their investment goals. In some cases, investors are using these ETFs to replace index mutual funds in their long-term portfolios. Thus, it is important to compare the performance of widely held ETFs and index funds in terms of their ability to consistently track the underlying index. Another interesting research question is whether tracking errors of these two investment vehicles …
The Influence Of Director Stock Ownership And Board Discussion Transparency On Financial Reporting Quality, Jacob M. Rose, Cheri Mazza, Carolyn S. Norman, Anna M. Rose
The Influence Of Director Stock Ownership And Board Discussion Transparency On Financial Reporting Quality, Jacob M. Rose, Cheri Mazza, Carolyn S. Norman, Anna M. Rose
WCBT Faculty Publications
Seventy-two active corporate directors participate in an experiment where management insists on aggressive recognition of revenue, but the chief audit executive proposes a more conservative approach. Results indicate interactive effects of director stock ownership and the transparency of director decisions. Stock-owning directors are more likely to oppose management’s attempts to manage earnings when transparency increases. For non-stock owning directors, however, increasing transparency does not affect the likelihood that directors oppose management’s attempts to manage earnings. The current study challenges suppositions that equate director stock ownership with improved financial reporting and higher corporate governance quality, and it provides evidence that increased …
Monthly Seasonality In Emerging Market: Evidence From Bangladesh, Lutfur Rahman, Abu S. Amin
Monthly Seasonality In Emerging Market: Evidence From Bangladesh, Lutfur Rahman, Abu S. Amin
WCBT Faculty Publications
The presence of the seasonal anomaly in stock returns has been reported extensively in finance literature. This paper examines the presence of monthly anomaly in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the premier stock exchange of Bangladesh. Data used in the study include daily closing prices of DSE indices such as DSE all share prices index (DSI), DSE general index (DGEN) and DSE 20 index for a period of 01.01.2001-30.06.2010. Several hypotheses have been formulated; those hypotheses have been tested and dummy variable regression was used in the study. The result indicates that May and June returns are positive and statistically significant. …
Should Individual Investors Use Technical Trading Rules To Attempt To Beat The Market?, Thomas S. Coe, Kittipong Laosethakul
Should Individual Investors Use Technical Trading Rules To Attempt To Beat The Market?, Thomas S. Coe, Kittipong Laosethakul
WCBT Faculty Publications
Problem statement: Despite widespread academic acceptance of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, some stock traders still use technical trading rules in an attempt to beat the market. Approach: This study looked at four trading rules, namely, the arithmetic moving average, the relative strength index, a stochastic oscillator and its moving average. These trading rules compare the relationship of current prices to past price patterns to generate a signal when to buy and sell stocks. The trading rules were tested over the years 2000-2009, a period of time that exhibited bull and bear markets, to determine if traders could actively …
Periodically Collapsing Bubbles In The Asian Emerging Stock Markets, Ako Doffou
Periodically Collapsing Bubbles In The Asian Emerging Stock Markets, Ako Doffou
WCBT Faculty Publications
This paper investigates empirically the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in the Asian emerging stock markets using the Enders-Siklos (2001) momentum threshold autoregressive model. As explained in Bohl (2003), this non-linear time series technique can be used to analyze bubble driven run-ups in stock prices followed by a crash in a non- cointegration framework with asymmetric adjustment. This technique offers a more potent insight in the stock prices behavior than can possibly be obtained using conventional non-cointegration tests. The empirical findings for ten Asian emerging stock markets from 1993 to 2005 refute the bubble hypothesis.
Value Creation In New Firms: Evidence From The Biotechnology Industry, Joseph E. Coombs, David L. Leeds
Value Creation In New Firms: Evidence From The Biotechnology Industry, Joseph E. Coombs, David L. Leeds
New England Journal of Entrepreneurship
No abstract provided.