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Articles 1 - 11 of 11
Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis
Does Herding Behavior Exist In The Cryptocurrency Market?, Anis Mnif
Does Herding Behavior Exist In The Cryptocurrency Market?, Anis Mnif
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This paper examines herd behavior in the cryptocurrency market using data of the top 15 large cryptocurrencies and the CCi30 Index as a proxy for market return. The idea that investors mimic and follow the behavior of others in the cryptocurrency market rather than conducting their own research has received attention in the finance literature. The CSAD results in the static model detected herding but given the existence of structural breakdowns and nonlinearities in the data series, we opted to conduct a rolling window analysis. The results indicate strong herding behavior that fluctuates over time. Furthermore, results from the logistic …
Assessing Diversification Of S&P500 And Cdx Indexes, Jeffrey A. Palma
Assessing Diversification Of S&P500 And Cdx Indexes, Jeffrey A. Palma
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
In this paper, I conduct a study of comovement between equity and corporate bonds using S&P500 and Investment Grade and High Yield CDX Indexes to evaluate the diversification benefits of holding these assets in portfolios. I assess comovement and diversification potential using DCC-GARCH and copulas. This approach allows for a review of equity and credit linkages through multiple lenses and evaluation of how these relationships have evolved over time. In general, I find only modest potential for diversification between equity and CDX markets and strong evidence of increased comovement over time.
Kalman Filter Vs Alternative Modeling Techniques And Applied Investment Strategies, Heather E. Dempsey
Kalman Filter Vs Alternative Modeling Techniques And Applied Investment Strategies, Heather E. Dempsey
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This thesis examines the efficacy of alternative modeling techniques to predict stock market returns modeled with time-varying coefficients with the goal of developing and implementing a trading strategy that yields excess returns. First, we determine the modeling technique with the smallest forecast error using historical predictors: the differenced dividend-price ratio, lagged S&P 500 returns, and the change in implied volatility. The candidate modeling techniques include both constant and recursive ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methods and diverges from previous return forecast literature with the comparison of a state-space model (SSM) cast as a VAR(1) process to each OLS technique. The …
Capital Allocation Imbalance And The Effects On Monetary Policy, Peter G. George
Capital Allocation Imbalance And The Effects On Monetary Policy, Peter G. George
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This paper examines the association between liquidity injections and capital allocations in the United States. In the analysis, liquidity injections are proxied by monetary base and the capital allocations are reflected by excess reserves, vault cash, total bank credit, and M2-M1. Monthly data are utilized for all variables for the sample period March 1984 – June 2020. Four Bai-Perron multiple breakpoint regressions and Markov switching estimations are employed to examine changeable patterns and interactions. The results indicate that liquidity injections are imbalanced and are allocated to total bank credit prior to quantitative easing, excess reserves prior to QE through post-QE, …
Global Recognition Of Sustainable Companies And The Search For Meaningful Returns, Jenny Gyurova Hite
Global Recognition Of Sustainable Companies And The Search For Meaningful Returns, Jenny Gyurova Hite
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
Can an investor realize meaningful returns by choosing sustainability? Global Knights publishes an annual 100 Global Most Sustainable companies list which has been announced each January in Davos, Switzerland since 2005. This paper examines the global recognition of the US sustainable companies which make that list and the presence of cumulative abnormal returns of their portfolio. Event study methodology is used to assess short and long term cumulative abnormal returns of a dynamic portfolio updated annually over 16 years to include those names. Standard Deviations and Sortino Ratios are evaluated to determine the comparative level of risk a potential investor …
The U.S. Presidential Election Cycle And Stock Market Returns, Georginus Ejiofor Ugwu
The U.S. Presidential Election Cycle And Stock Market Returns, Georginus Ejiofor Ugwu
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This paper analyzes the relationship between the presidential election year and the stock market returns in the United States by examining the monthly returns of the Standard &Poor’s 500 stock index from January 1959 to December 2019. In essence, I test whether stock market returns improve during presidential election year, consistent with the political business cycle (PBC) and its later offshoot, the ‘presidential election cycle (PEC) hypothesis, which assumes that incumbent presidents and their parties improve economic growth and the stock market outlook by embracing expansionary macroeconomic policy. I employ the Least Squares Regression tests on monthly S&P 500 index …
The Influence Of Publicly-Traded Reits And Market-Based Inflation Expectations On Daily-Priced Private Commercial Real Estate Returns, Tiffany Burns Gherlone
The Influence Of Publicly-Traded Reits And Market-Based Inflation Expectations On Daily-Priced Private Commercial Real Estate Returns, Tiffany Burns Gherlone
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
Investors requiring daily Net Asset Values (NAV) represent a large and growing source of capital for the private institutional real estate asset class. Defined contribution and other daily-valued vehicles are increasing their investments into private, direct commercial real estate through funds that estimate changes to income and values in order to mark a daily NAV. Utilizing nine years of daily data from the NCREIF Fund Index – Daily Priced, we optimize a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model with generalized error distribution parameterization (GARCH-GED) to better understand the influence of publicly-traded real estate securities and changes in market-implied inflation expectations on …
Financial Market Risk And Macroeconomic Stability Variables: Dynamic Interactions And Feedback Effects, Agnieszka M. Chomicz-Grabowska
Financial Market Risk And Macroeconomic Stability Variables: Dynamic Interactions And Feedback Effects, Agnieszka M. Chomicz-Grabowska
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This study investigates dynamic interactions and feedback effects between financial market risk proxied by VIX and key macroeconomic stability variables that include the rate of unemployment, headline inflation and market-based inflation expectations reflected by the breakeven inflation. I argue that market risk should play a stronger role in macroeconomic modeling and forecasting than it has been recognized thus far in the literature. I employ vector autoregression with impulse response functions, as well as two-state Markov switching tests to examine these interactions on the longest available US monthly data. The empirical tests show that the association between market risk and macroeconomic …
Stock Buyback Announcements: An Examination Of Abnormal Returns In Stock Price & Credit Default Swaps For S&P100 Companies, Alan L. Delfavero
Stock Buyback Announcements: An Examination Of Abnormal Returns In Stock Price & Credit Default Swaps For S&P100 Companies, Alan L. Delfavero
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This event study examines the short-run effect of stock buyback announcements on stock price and credit default swaps (CDS) exclusively for mega capitalization S&P 100 companies. The research sample consists of 53 S&P 100 companies and includes 133 buyback announcement events occurring between September 2011 and May 2018. The study utilizes the market model to estimate expected returns and to compute abnormal returns (AR) for equity and abnormal change (AC) in CDS. Based on an initial analysis, it’s determined that there is a statistically significant AR and cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for stock price, and a significant AC in CDS, …
Hedging With Volatility, Mário Alagoa
Hedging With Volatility, Mário Alagoa
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
A risk-averse investor with a long equity position is presumably interested in identifying a hedging strategy that protects the value of that investment. The common approach encompasses using either financial derivatives or holding assets (such as gold or Swiss francs) as portfolio hedges as they show negative correlation with equities. This paper proposes using volatility indexes as portfolio hedges instead; it shows that a volatility-based dynamic hedging strategy is the most effective at protecting the value of an equity investment.
Evaluating Volatility Forecasts In Various Equity Market Regimes, John P. Felletter
Evaluating Volatility Forecasts In Various Equity Market Regimes, John P. Felletter
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
Forecasting volatility is a critical component of asset allocation, risk management, and option pricing. Many different methods and models are used to predict volatility, and many studies have examined the efficacy of one method or another. This study investigates whether the abilities of historical volatility, GARCH models, and VIX to forecast volatility vary in different market conditions, as distinguished by levels of volatility and returns. It is found that market conditions do impact the abilities of the variables to forecast volatility. Overall, the forecasts implied by the GARCH models perform best according to the various metrics, while the VIX forecast …