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Utah State University

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Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis

Forecasting Stock Market Prices: A Machine Learning Approach, Abraham Alhomadi Dec 2021

Forecasting Stock Market Prices: A Machine Learning Approach, Abraham Alhomadi

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

There has been extensive literature written about the efficiency of the stock market. Practitioners and academicians have debated whether investors can exploit publicly available information to generate excess returns. Clearly predicting the stock market’s return with high accuracy has been enormously difficult, but we are interested in contributing to the continuous exploration of the efficiency of the stock market using machine learning techniques. We also want to examine the relationship between our dataset’s macroeconomic indicators and foreign nations’ stock markets with our target feature—the S&P 500. In this paper, we will be using supervised machine learning models, like Linear Regression, …

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Current Expected Credit Losses Methodology, Rhett Crandall Aug 2021

Current Expected Credit Losses Methodology, Rhett Crandall

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The purpose of this paper is to implement the Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL) methodology for an Association of the Farm Credit System (FCS). CECL was released in 2016 by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and is expected to be implemented by all banks and lending institutions starting Jan. 1, 2023. CECL changes the way lenders account for Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses (ALLL) by allocating a small amount of allowance for loan loss for each loan at origination. The association for which this project was designed provided historical loan data for 21,755 loans which tracked probability of …

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Short Selling Around Reverse Stock Splits, Ryan Voges May 2021

Short Selling Around Reverse Stock Splits, Ryan Voges

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

I examine whether short selling increases around reverse stock splits using 2019 daily short selling data instead of bimonthly short interest data required by FINRA. In my difference-in-difference analysis, I find that average short selling increases significantly for firms that reverse split their stock, relative to matched control firms that do not, around the split dates. I also find that firms that reverse split their stock experience negative cumulative abnormal returns in the 20-day period after the reverse stock splits, particularly for those firms that are heavily shorted. These results are in agreeance with existent literature and suggest that short …

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The Relative Industry Specific Effects Of Covid-19 On Market Volatility And Liquidity, Callin Christensen Aug 2020

The Relative Industry Specific Effects Of Covid-19 On Market Volatility And Liquidity, Callin Christensen

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Understanding how historical events affect market volatility and liquidity can provide crucial information to financial analysts, investment professionals, and managers in the event that similar circumstances resurface. In this study, I look at how a global pandemic (COVID-19) can introduce frictions into the market and cause disrupt the generation or flow of available information, this could cause prices to deviate significantly from their equilibrium values. I also hypothesize that these inefficiencies may have a greater effect on some industries than others. My analysis seems to confirm this hypothesis. I observe that the global COVID-19 pandemic leads to statistically significant increases …

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Predictive Distributions Via Filtered Historical Simulation For Financial Risk Management, Tyson Clark May 2019

Predictive Distributions Via Filtered Historical Simulation For Financial Risk Management, Tyson Clark

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Filtered historical simulation with an underlying GARCH process can be used as a valuable tool in VaR analysis, as it derives risk estimates that are sensitive to the distributional properties of the historical data of the produced predictive density. I examine the applications to risk analysis that filtered historical simulation can provide, as well as an interpretation of the predictive density as a poor man’s Bayesian posterior distribution. The predictive density allows us to make associated probabilistic statements regarding the results for VaR analysis, giving greater measurement of risk and the ability to maintain the optimal level of risk per …

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The Impact Of Immigration On Financial Markets, Jesse Baker May 2019

The Impact Of Immigration On Financial Markets, Jesse Baker

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper studies the impact of immigration policy on financial markets. I estimate the cumulative abnormal returns surrounding two events the effective start date of the Immigration Act of 1990 and the implementation of the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) of Nicaragua and Honduras in 1999. Focusing on agriculture, construction, and manufacturing firms, I find that the CARs surrounding the events are indeed positive and significant, suggesting that the market anticipated growth among industries that are likely to hire Central American immigrants.

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Insider Trading And The Stock Act Amendment, Josh Wilson May 2018

Insider Trading And The Stock Act Amendment, Josh Wilson

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

On April 2, 2012, Congress passed the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act. The purpose of this legislation was to enhance transparency among the financial investments of Congress members, congressional staffers, and other government employees. One year later, an amendment was passed which no longer required staffers or government employees to publish their holdings online citing “national security”. Treating this event as a natural experiment, I examine whether insider trading occurred in the days leading up to and through the signing of the law by President Obama. In general, I find that portfolios of the 50 most commonly held …

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Implementing The Heston Option Pricing Model In Object-Oriented Cython, Brandon Hardin Dec 2017

Implementing The Heston Option Pricing Model In Object-Oriented Cython, Brandon Hardin

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The 1973 Black-Scholes model, a revolutionary option pricing formula whose price is 'relatively close to observed prices, makes an assumption that the volatility is constant and thus, deterministic. This causes some inefficiencies and patterns in the pricing of options due to the model providing evidence of the volatility smile' of the volatility. Many scholars have suggested that the volatility should be modelled by a stochastic process and the (1993) Heston Model is one of many proposed solutions to remedy this problem. The Heston Model allows for the 'smile' by defining the volatility as a stochastic process. This thesis considers a …

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Healthcare Sector Stock Returns And The Election Of Donald J. Trump, Cordell Hull Aug 2017

Healthcare Sector Stock Returns And The Election Of Donald J. Trump, Cordell Hull

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The 2016 US Presidential Election was hallmarked by significant policy differences between the Democratic and Republican parties. Healthcare reform was one of the most significant and highly debated issues between the candidates; Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) and Donald J. Trump (R-NY). The Republican platform of repeal and replace was in direct opposition to the expansionary viewpoints of the Democratic Party which was to promote increased regulations on the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries. The media narrative in the months preceding the election assumed a Democratic victory as a sure thing. The New York Times gave Hillary Clinton a 98.5% chance of …

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