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Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis

The Taper Tantrum Of 2013: Momentum-Driven Or A Return To Fundamentals?, Colette L. Terhune May 2016

The Taper Tantrum Of 2013: Momentum-Driven Or A Return To Fundamentals?, Colette L. Terhune

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This study explores the driving force behind the Taper Tantrum of 2013. Following the Fed’s announcements of potential QE tapering, investors poured of the bond market, causing yields to rise sharply. This analysis seeks to determine whether this was a momentum-driven reaction or a return to fundamental values. Throughout this paper, fundamental determinants of bond prices and investor returns are combined with trading volume and bid-ask spread data to determine the motivating market force. The findings suggest that the Taper Tantrum was a return to fundamental bond prices following an asset bubble burst, likely due to momentum trading.

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Strategic Asset Allocation For Fixed Income And Fixed Income-Like Securities In Anticipation Of A Bear Market, Ngoc B. Phan May 2016

Strategic Asset Allocation For Fixed Income And Fixed Income-Like Securities In Anticipation Of A Bear Market, Ngoc B. Phan

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

In a market contraction, it is often beneficial to actively manage fixed income and fixed income-like portfolio via strategic asset allocation. Many fixed income securities tend to outperform equities during market contractions owing to their fixed payment streams, lower volatility, and higher position in capital structure. This study seeks to estimate a set of optimal asset allocation portfolios in anticipation of recessions empirically using historic inflation-adjusted data. I apply mean-variance optimization to find optimal portfolio mix, discuss investors of different risk levels and discuss performance of portfolios in growth, recession and long-term periods.

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The Millennial Investor: Mutual Funds Versus Exchange Traded Funds, Terrell Mclendon May 2016

The Millennial Investor: Mutual Funds Versus Exchange Traded Funds, Terrell Mclendon

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This research paper seeks to understand the Millennial investor. The distinct purpose of this research is to determine if Millennials in the U.S., specifically those ages 25 to 35, prefer investing in exchange traded funds to mutual funds. Additionally, this research seeks to discern if these Millennials prefer investing online to working with a personal financial advisor. Secondary research was utilized extensively to compile a review of existing literature on the topics of the Millennial generation, mutual funds, exchange traded funds, personal financial brokers, and online investing sites. Primary research was completed through a questionnaire survey to gather new data …

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Financial Performance In Upstream, Downstream, And Integrated Oil Companies In Response To Oil Price Volatility, Jonathan P. Garcia May 2016

Financial Performance In Upstream, Downstream, And Integrated Oil Companies In Response To Oil Price Volatility, Jonathan P. Garcia

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper investigates the relation between crude oil price volatility and stock returns among oil companies using a three-part methodology, by using the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as oil price benchmark. I asses the various indicators that set signals for oil price volatility and the interpretation of each (PMI, S&P500, DJIA, and World Crude Oil Output). This research also focuses on the relation between different types of companies in the oil industry (integrated, upstream, and downstream) and how each type of company will be assessed in a particular way to predict abnormal returns, based on market data and statistical analyses …

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Correlation Between Shareholder Concentration And Firm Performance With Regard To Midcap Companies, Wynn Lemmons May 2016

Correlation Between Shareholder Concentration And Firm Performance With Regard To Midcap Companies, Wynn Lemmons

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

The research herein explores the correlation between performance and shareholder concentration. This paper compares the performance of a group of companies with a single shareholder stake of over 10% from the universe of the S&P 400 Midcap Index to the performance of the index itself over a period of eight years (January 1, 2009 to January 1, 2016). When run as a simulated portfolio, the group selected generated a slight amount of positive alpha, but the results were ultimately statistically insignificant.

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Why Hedge? Extent, Nature, And Determinants Of Derivative Usage In U.S. Municipalities, Saleha Khumawala, Ranasinghe, Tharindra, Claire J. Yan May 2016

Why Hedge? Extent, Nature, And Determinants Of Derivative Usage In U.S. Municipalities, Saleha Khumawala, Ranasinghe, Tharindra, Claire J. Yan

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Using a hand-collected dataset of over 300 observations of large U.S. cities and counties, this paper investigates the extent, nature and determinants of derivatives usage in the municipal sector. Over half of our sample entities engage in derivative transactions and a vast majority of these transactions are intended to manage interest rate risk. Swaps, by far, are the most popular derivative instrument. In terms of the determinants of derivative usage, we find that the propensity to use derivatives as well as the extent of derivative usage is higher for municipalities that are larger and more financially constrained. We do not …

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The Microstructure Behavior Of Sgx Nikkei 225 Index Futures Resulting From Component Changes Of The Underlying Cash Market Index, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Vasan Siraprapasiri May 2016

The Microstructure Behavior Of Sgx Nikkei 225 Index Futures Resulting From Component Changes Of The Underlying Cash Market Index, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Vasan Siraprapasiri

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study the effect of changes involving component stocks of the Nikkei 225 stock index on the behavior of the Nikkei 225 index futures. Specifically, we examine the effects of component changes of the Nikkei 225 on the volume, returns, volatility, and bid-ask spreads (BAS) on its corresponding futures contract traded on the Singapore Exchange (SGX). We find that trading volume increases and the bid-ask spread decreases but there is no significant change in the returns of the SGX Nikkei 225 index futures after a component change takes place. This does not support the Price Pressure Hypothesis, which states that …

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Trading Ahead Of Bad News: Evidence From Short-Sales Of Stocks And The Options Market, Nicholas E. Macksoud Apr 2016

Trading Ahead Of Bad News: Evidence From Short-Sales Of Stocks And The Options Market, Nicholas E. Macksoud

Business and Economics Honors Papers

Throughout the past ten years, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has issued hundreds of enforcement actions in the electric, natural gas, and petroleum industries. The vast majority of these citations have been violations of environmental statutes, notably the Clean Air Act (CAA) and the Clean Water Act (CWA). My research evaluates the timing of informed investors’ actions pertaining to the public release of these EPA announcements. Since informed traders have much more leverage in the options market, there seems likely to be a concentration of abnormal put option activity shortly before the time in which the announcements reach …

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Cost Of Debt And Federal Home Loan Bank Funding At U.S. Bank And Thrift Holding Companies, Scott Deacle, Elyas Elyasiani Apr 2016

Cost Of Debt And Federal Home Loan Bank Funding At U.S. Bank And Thrift Holding Companies, Scott Deacle, Elyas Elyasiani

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

We investigate the relationship between the cost of debt issued by bank holding companies (BHCs) and thrift holding companies (THCs) and their use of Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances. Cost of debt is used as a measure of bank riskiness for the first time in a FHLB study. A two-equation model of FHLB advances and cost of debt is estimated. Three main results are obtained. First, greater reliance on advances by BHCs and THCs is associated with lower cost of debt in the pre-crisis period, and more strongly so during the crisis, because granting of advances sends a positive …

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Refining The Prize: Chinese Oil Refineries And Its Energy Security, Inwook Kim Apr 2016

Refining The Prize: Chinese Oil Refineries And Its Energy Security, Inwook Kim

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Since China became a net oil importer in 1993, oil refineries have played integral roles in China's quest for oil security. And yet, the capacity, security, and configurations of refineries were rarely featured in the discussions about China's oil policy. To fill this gap, this paper explains the basics of refinery economics and technology, and details the development in China's refining industry since the early 1990s. By taking refineries into consideration, it then revisits and reassesses the existing literature regarding the motives and drivers behind China's foreign oil policy, its effectiveness, and the political interactions between China and crude oil …

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Analysts, Macroeconomic News, And The Benefit Of Active In-House Economists, Artur Hugon, Alok Kumar, An-Ping Lin Mar 2016

Analysts, Macroeconomic News, And The Benefit Of Active In-House Economists, Artur Hugon, Alok Kumar, An-Ping Lin

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Although macroeconomic news has a major impact on corporate earnings, anecdotal evidence suggests that financial analyst research is inefficient with respect to such news. Examining analysts' earnings research, we find that they underreact to negative macroeconomic news. Analysts are not all equal, though, as analysts employed at the same firm as an active macroeconomist underreact much less. We find that the benefit of analyst access to an economist is concentrated in firms that are high in cyclicality relative to their industry, high in cyclicality in general, and that are smaller in size. In addition, analysts who are exposed to more …

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Informational Efficiency And The Reaction To Terrorism: A Financial Perspective, Nicholas Roland Jan 2016

Informational Efficiency And The Reaction To Terrorism: A Financial Perspective, Nicholas Roland

Honors Undergraduate Theses

The purpose of this study is to measure the message terror organizations hope to convey using the financial markets as a proxy of measurement to determine patterns within the marketplace and the effects on the terrorists’ ability to deliver a desired message due to the increased use of digital devices and access to instantaneous news, seen over the past decade. Using death count, geographic location, and event type, this study identified 109 attacks between 1985 and 2015 to be analyzed against 5 market indices and 5 securities. Measuring the effects within a 10-day sample window from the time of the …

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The Archway Investment Fund, Annual Report 2016, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund Jan 2016

The Archway Investment Fund, Annual Report 2016, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

The Archway Investment Fund, led by Professor Asli Ascioglu, is a series of two classes, consisting of a semester focused on Securities Analysis, and a semester of Portfolio Management. The students begin as Securities Analysts, where they gain a foundational knowledge for investment management and financial analysis.

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An Analysis Of The Relationship Between Security Information Technology Enhancements And Computer Security Breaches And Incidents, Linda Betz Jan 2016

An Analysis Of The Relationship Between Security Information Technology Enhancements And Computer Security Breaches And Incidents, Linda Betz

CCAC Theses and Dissertations

Financial services institutions maintain large amounts of data that include both intellectual property and personally identifiable information for employees and customers. Due to the potential damage to individuals, government regulators hold institutions accountable for ensuring that personal data are protected and require reporting of data security breaches. No company wants a data breach, but finding a security incident or breach early in the attack cycle may decrease the damage or data loss a company experiences. In multiple high profile data breaches reported in major news stories over the past few years, there is a pattern of the adversary being inside …

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The Cost Of Feeling Good, Casey M. Field Jan 2016

The Cost Of Feeling Good, Casey M. Field

Honors Undergraduate Theses

The Cost of Feeling Good attempts to quantify the optimum portfolio returns of Socially Responsible Investment Funds and Dual-Purpose Portfolios. In order to meet the demands of investors who want to create a social impact and generate financial returns, investors can choose two methods. For the purpose of this study, the social returns were quantified and the financial returns were quantified using net present value. In every scenario, the socially responsible investment decision generated higher financial returns. Because of the immediate loss to an investor after choosing the DPP strategy, financially, the SRI fund appears to be the better approach …

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Should I Invest In Art?, Alexandra Eldridge Jan 2016

Should I Invest In Art?, Alexandra Eldridge

MA Projects

One of the more interesting ways to consider the perennial is art a good investment? question is by looking at the various ways that the art market does or does not behave like other markets. When comparing art as an asset class to more traditional assets, we first need to ask ourselves – are the two even comparable? This article explores the idiosyncrasies of the art world, compares the claims people make regarding art's investment potential to the available research studies, discusses some non-monetary motives for buying, and may even have an answer for the nagging art-as-investment question.

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Raj Rajaratnam: Cheater (Revised), Alicia Baker Jan 2016

Raj Rajaratnam: Cheater (Revised), Alicia Baker

Richard T. Schellhase Essay Prize in Ethics

No abstract provided.

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Two Essays In Finance And Economics: “Investment Opportunities In Commodity And Stock Markets For G7 Countries” And “Global And Local Factors Affecting Sovereign Yield Spreads”, Selma Izadi Dec 2015

Two Essays In Finance And Economics: “Investment Opportunities In Commodity And Stock Markets For G7 Countries” And “Global And Local Factors Affecting Sovereign Yield Spreads”, Selma Izadi

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

In chapter 1, I investigate the return links and dynamic conditional correlations between the equity and commodity returns for G7 countries from 2000:01 to 2014:10. The commodity futures include BCOM Index which contains the futures and spot price of 22 commodities, Brent and Crude oil futures, gold and silver futures, Wheat, Corn and Soybean futures and CRB index. The finding indicates that during the full sample period GOLD, WHEAT and CORN have the smallest dynamic conditional correlations with all the Equity indexes. In addition, the correlations between the GOLD/Equity pairs are negative during the financial crisis. This fact indicates the …

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Intraday Value-At-Risk: An Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration Approach, Shouwei Liu, Yiu Kuen Tse Dec 2015

Intraday Value-At-Risk: An Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration Approach, Shouwei Liu, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose to compute the Intraday Value-at-Risk (IVaR) for stocks using real-time transaction data. Tick-by-tick data filtered by price duration are modeled using a two-state asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model, and the IVaR is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation based on the estimated AACD model. Backtesting results for the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) show that the IVaR calculated using the AACD method outperforms those using the Dionne et al. (2009) and Giot (2005) methods.

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Institutional Trading During A Wave Of Corporate Scandals: 'Perfect Payday'?, Gennaro Bernile, Johan Sulaeman, Qin Wang Oct 2015

Institutional Trading During A Wave Of Corporate Scandals: 'Perfect Payday'?, Gennaro Bernile, Johan Sulaeman, Qin Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines the role of institutional trading during the option backdating scandal of 2006-2007. Unlike their inability to anticipate other corporate events, institutional investors as a group display negative abnormal trading imbalances (i.e., buy minus sell volumes) in anticipation of firm-specific backdating exposures. Consistent with informed trading, the underlying trades earn positive abnormal short- and long-term profits. Moreover, the negative abnormal imbalances are larger in magnitude when backdating is likely a more severe issue. Local institutions, in particular, display negative trading imbalances earlier in event-time and earn consistently higher trading profits than non-local institutions. Although we find some evidence …

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Trading Costs On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand, Nattawut Jenwittayaroje, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Yung Chiang Yang Oct 2015

Trading Costs On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand, Nattawut Jenwittayaroje, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Yung Chiang Yang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines the components of trading costs incurred in trading large and liquid stocks listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. We find that aggressive orders pay an immediacy price measured by price impact, whereas executed passive orders gain the immediacy price. We also find a sizable opportunity cost from the unexecuted portion of a limit order that more than offsets the benefit obtained from the partial fulfillment of the order. The total trading cost, which includes price impact and opportunity cost, is positively related to order size and stock price volatility, but negatively associated with firm size, stock …

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Loss Aversion, Adaptive Beliefs, And Asset Pricing Dynamics, Kamal Samy Selim Prof, Ahmed Eltabee Okasha Dr., Heba M. Ezzat Dr. Sep 2015

Loss Aversion, Adaptive Beliefs, And Asset Pricing Dynamics, Kamal Samy Selim Prof, Ahmed Eltabee Okasha Dr., Heba M. Ezzat Dr.

Business Administration

We study asset pricing dynamics in artificial financial markets model. The financial market is populated with agents following two heterogeneous trading beliefs, the technical and the fundamental prediction rules. Agents switch between trading rules with respect to their past performance. The agents are loss averse over asset price fluctuations. Loss aversion behaviour depends on the past performance of the trading strategies in terms of an evolutionary fitness measure. We propose a novel application of the prospect theory to agent-based modelling, and by simulation, the effect of evolutionary fitness measure on adaptive belief system is investigated. For comparison, we study pricing …

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Tail Event Driven Asset Allocation: Evidence From Equity And Mutual Funds Markets, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, David K. C. Lee, Sergey Nasekin, Xinwen Ni, Alla Petukina Aug 2015

Tail Event Driven Asset Allocation: Evidence From Equity And Mutual Funds Markets, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, David K. C. Lee, Sergey Nasekin, Xinwen Ni, Alla Petukina

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The correlation structure across assets and opposite tail movements are essential to the asset allocation problem, since they determine the level of risk in a position. Correlation alone is not informative on the distributional details of the assets. Recently introduced TEDAS -Tail Event Driven ASset allocation approach determines the dependence between assets at tail measures. TEDAS uses adaptive Lasso based quantile regression in order to determine an active set of negative nonzero coefficients. Based on these active risk factors, an adjustment for intertemporal correlation is made. In this research authors aim to develop TEDAS, by introducing three TEDAS modifications differing …

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Customer's Short Positions And Supplier's Investment Decisions, Xia Chen, Guojin Gong, Shuqing Luo Jul 2015

Customer's Short Positions And Supplier's Investment Decisions, Xia Chen, Guojin Gong, Shuqing Luo

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Short interest contains valuable information about a firm’s business fundamentals. We investigate whether such information affects business partners’ real investment decisions in the supply-chain setting. We predict and find that a supplier’s future investments (including inventory, R&D, and tangible asset investments) decrease with its customer’s current short interest. This negative relation is stronger when the supplier faces greater difficulty in assessing its customer’s business fundamentals and when short interest is more likely to indicate longlasting deterioration in the customer’s fundamentals. Additional analysis does not support the alternative explanation that the supplier adjusts investments in response to unfavorable information obtained via …

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What Price Security?, Singapore Management University Jun 2015

What Price Security?, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Non-state actors have muddied the global security picture but the fundamental problems remain unchanged from those millenia ago

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Does Brand Licensing Increase A Licensor's Shareholder Value?, Adina B. Robinson, Kapil R. Tuli, Ajay K. Kohli Jun 2015

Does Brand Licensing Increase A Licensor's Shareholder Value?, Adina B. Robinson, Kapil R. Tuli, Ajay K. Kohli

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines 171 brand licensing announcements and subsequent changes in the licensor firms' shareholder values using the event study method. We find that although brand licensing announcements lead to positive abnormal returns on average, nearly 44% of the announcements in our sample are followed by negative abnormal returns. We argue that investors react more favorably to a brand licensing announcement when they believe (i) the brand has greater ability to stimulate licensee product sales (and thus generate higher royalties for the licensor) and (ii) the licensor firm has greater ability to limit licensee opportunism (and thus limit brand dilution …

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When Everyone Misses On The Same Side: Debiased Earnings Surprises And Stock Returns, Chin-Han Chiang, Wei Dai, Jianqing Fan, Harrison Hong, Jun Tu Jun 2015

When Everyone Misses On The Same Side: Debiased Earnings Surprises And Stock Returns, Chin-Han Chiang, Wei Dai, Jianqing Fan, Harrison Hong, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In event studies of capital market efficiency, an earnings surprise has historically been measured by the consensus error, defined as earnings minus the consensus or average of professional forecasts. The rationale is that the consensus is an accurate measure of the market’s expectation of earnings. But since forecasts can be biased due to conflicts of interest and some investors can see through these conflicts, this rationale is flawed and the consensus error a biased measure of an earnings surprise. We show that the fraction of forecasts that miss on the same side (FOM), by ignoring the size of the misses, …

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Volatility And Risk Management In European Electricity Futures Markets, Jim Hanly, Lucia Morales May 2015

Volatility And Risk Management In European Electricity Futures Markets, Jim Hanly, Lucia Morales

Articles

This paper estimates and applies a risk management strategy for electricity spot exposures using futures hedging. We apply our approach to three of the most actively traded European electricity markets, Nordpool, APXUK and Phelix. We compare both optimal hedging strategies and the hedging effectiveness of these markets for two hedging horizons, weekly and monthly using both Variance and Value at Risk (VaR). We find significant differences in both the Optimal Hedge Ratios (OHR’s) and the hedging effectiveness of the different electricity markets. Better performance is found for the Nordpool market while the poorest performer in hedging terms is Phelix. However …

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My Experience With Fundamental Analysis, Nicolas Chapman May 2015

My Experience With Fundamental Analysis, Nicolas Chapman

Honors Scholar Theses

In finance, there are several overarching schools of thought when viewing equity prices in the stock market, such as technical and fundamental analysis. I find the most enjoyment in quantitative matters, so naturally most of my experience with the stock market includes fundamental analysis. Proponents of this methodology purport that there is a true value of a security based on its financials, and that it will trade around that number eventually. Perhaps the most successful investor who uses fundamental analysis is Warren Buffett. Specifically, he believes in valuing a company’s equity by gauging their cash flows and projecting how they …

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Investment Strategies Amongst Property And Casualty Insurance Companies, Ryan J. Conforti May 2015

Investment Strategies Amongst Property And Casualty Insurance Companies, Ryan J. Conforti

Honors Scholar Theses

The purpose of this work is to take an in-depth look into the investment side of property and casualty insurance. Many P&C companies have thrived over the past century, and much of this success can be attributed to investment income. This thesis will examine how investment philosophy changes from firm to firm, while also looking at how strategies have changed over time. It will also look into the insurance “float,” and examine how investors such as Warren Buffett have utilized this instrument to their favor. Investing is a huge aspect of property and casualty insurance, and this piece will give …

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