Rural Livelihood, Biodiversity And Carbon Stock In Vietnam Mountains: Agent-Based Modeling To Anticipate Trade-Offs,
2016
CGIAR Research Program on Dryland Systems, c/o International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA)
Rural Livelihood, Biodiversity And Carbon Stock In Vietnam Mountains: Agent-Based Modeling To Anticipate Trade-Offs, Quang Bao Le
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Assessment of future multiple ecosystem services driven by alternative land-use policies is useful for supporting decisions about what and where to invest for the best overall environmental and developmental outcomes. The task faces a great challenge due to the inherent complexity of human- landscape systems and trade-offs between rural livelihood improvement, biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration. Agent-based system models have been recognized to be well suited to simulate the co-evolutions of the community and landscape systems in response to policy interventions. The study applies the Land Use Dynamics Simulator (LUDAS) framework to a mountain watershed in central Vietnam for anticipating …
Improving Evapotranspiration Simulation In Swat Using Remote Sensing,
2016
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Improving Evapotranspiration Simulation In Swat Using Remote Sensing, A. Teklesadik, A. Van Griensven, Tadesse Alemayehu, W. G.M. Bastiaanssen
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Evapotranspiration (ET) is the main hydrological component besides precipitation, but evapotranspiration calculations in hydrological models are poorly validated. In our study, we used an ensemble of monthly ET estimations derived from remote sensing (RS) obtained from ALEXI, MODIS ,CMRSET and SSEBOP RS models, as a reference for evaluating ET simulation results from SWAT in the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBN). A comparison indicates that SWAT ET estimation is lower than the ensemble mean RS-ET estimations during dry season, where as for the wet season simulated SWAT ET is comparable with RS ET. These results indicate an underestimation of vegetation transpiration …
Quantile Regression Ensemble For Summer Temperatures Time Series And Its Impact On Built Environment Studies,
2016
University of Bath
Quantile Regression Ensemble For Summer Temperatures Time Series And Its Impact On Built Environment Studies, Manuel Herrera, Matthew Eames, Alfonso Ramallo-Gonzalez, Chunde Liu, David Coley
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The occurrence of heat waves, heavy rainfall, or drought periods have an increasing trend nowadays as consequence of Earths global warming. This seriously affects natural habitats and directly impacts on the human environment. Architects and engineers use different approaches to model reference and future weather conditions to achieve building designs that resilient and energy efficient. However, modelling extreme weather events within those future conditions is a relative few explored field. This paper introduces the analysis of regression models for summer temperature time series that facilitate the representation of those extreme events; this is based on upper and lower quantiles, instead …
Multi-Dimensional Hydraulic Coupling For Flood Forecasting,
2016
CECI, CNRS-CERFACS
Multi-Dimensional Hydraulic Coupling For Flood Forecasting, S. Barthélémy, S. Ricci, N. Goutal, T. Morel, E. Le Pape
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In the context of hydrodynamic modelling the use of 2D models is of fundamental importance in areas where the flow is not mono-dimensional. Nonetheless, the lack of bathymetric data to develop a global 2D model over an entire network or the computational cost of a global 2D model can be prohibitive for operational flood forecasting services. To overcome this limitation a solution is to use multi-dimensional coupling with the use of 1D models where the flow is mono- dimensional and the use of 2D models when needed. Multi-dimensional coupling allows for the use of a global hydrodynamic 1D/2D model over …
Using Bayesian Networks To Evaluate The Vulnerability Of Smallholder Farmers In Increasingly Globalized Markets,
2016
ETH Zurich, Institute for Landscape and Spatial Development, Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems (PLUS)
Using Bayesian Networks To Evaluate The Vulnerability Of Smallholder Farmers In Increasingly Globalized Markets, Victoria Junquera, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Agricultural systems in northern Laos are undergoing a rapid transformation from subsistence-based to increasingly export-oriented production of cash crops such as rubber, banana, and sugarcane, with important consequences for local livelihoods and ecosystem services. Our work aims first to identify the drivers of these land use and land cover (LULC) changes, and in turn to understand the impact of such changes on livelihood vulnerability. We define the vulnerability of the local system (in this case the village) in terms of its exposure and sensitivity to stress, as well as its resilience, i.e., its capacity to cope with the stress, either …
Land Use Change Effects Of Oil Palm Expansion On Ecosystem Services In Tapi River Basin, Thailand,
2016
The Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University Research
Land Use Change Effects Of Oil Palm Expansion On Ecosystem Services In Tapi River Basin, Thailand, Kanokwan Saswattecha, Lars Hein, Carolien Kroeze, Warit Jawjit
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The last decades have shown a strong increase in oil palm production in Thailand. This is increasingly leading to land conversion including loss of forest habitat. However the specific direct and indirect land use effects of oil palm expansion in Thailand are as yet insufficiently understood. We selected the Tapi river Basin and model land use change caused by oil palm expansion. We analysed both direct and indirect land use change effects, using spatial analysis in ArcGIS 10.0 in combination with farmer interviews. Our analysis shows that in the first decade after 2000, direct-land-use-change (dLUC) amounted to 102,000 ha, and …
Systems Approach To Link Big Socio-Ecological Geo-Data To Food Systems Sustainability,
2016
CGIAR Research Program on Dryland Systems, c/o International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA)
Systems Approach To Link Big Socio-Ecological Geo-Data To Food Systems Sustainability, Quang Bao Le, Chandrashekhar Biradar, Enrico Bonaiuti, Richard Thomas
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Rapid development of multi-dimensionally, multi-scale, timely updated socio-ecological geo-data presents an opportunity as potential information resource for supporting effective decision- making of stakeholders involved with food systems, from daily routines of individuals to strategic decisions of manager and policy-makers. However, the use of this type of big data toward supporting the sustainability of food systems at different scales still fall short of (i) what information commonly needed by food system actors to response and adapt to socio-ecological change and enhance the system performance, (ii) interoperability between different types of data across scales, and (iii) sufficient guidance to utilize big data …
Challenges And Opportunities For Urban Decarbonization At The Global Scale,
2016
Climate Service Center Germany, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht
Challenges And Opportunities For Urban Decarbonization At The Global Scale, Roger Cremades
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Urban areas emit roughly three quarters of global carbon emissions. Cities are crucial elements for a decarbonized society, however, there is not a framework to analyse cities at the global scale. Supervised machine learning from remote sensing provides information about human settlements from 4 dates (1974, 1990, 2000 and 2014), allowing the creation of the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) which jointly with the Gridded Population of the World (GPW) provides the basis for this study. This dynamic evolution of 250 metre sided cells and its population at the global scale gives an unprecedented opportunity to analyse a backbone of …
Profiling Residential Water Users’ Routines By Eigenbehavior Modelling,
2016
Politecnico di Milano
Profiling Residential Water Users’ Routines By Eigenbehavior Modelling, A. Cominola, A. Moro, L. Riva, M. Giuliani, A. Castelleti
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Developing effective demand-side management strategies is essential to meet future residential water demands, pursue water conservation, and reduce the costs for water utilities. The effectiveness of water demand management strategies relies on our understanding of water consumers’ behavior and their consumption habits and routines, which can be monitored through the deployment of smart metering technologies and the adoption of data analytics and machine learning techniques. This work contributes a novel modeling procedure, based on a combination of clustering and principal component analysis, which allows performing water users’ segmentation on the basis of their eigenbehaviors (i.e., recurrent water consumption behaviors) automatically …
Evapotranspiration Mapping Using Sebal Algorithms To Account For Agricultural Water Uses In The Upper Pangani, Tanzania,
2016
The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Evapotranspiration Mapping Using Sebal Algorithms To Account For Agricultural Water Uses In The Upper Pangani, Tanzania, Anna Msigwa, Ann Van Griensven, Hans C. Komakech, Boud Verbeiren, Tim Hessels, Wim G. M. Bastiaanssen
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
To make informed decisions, river basin managers requires information on demands and actual usage from different sectors in the basin. Such water use information has to be adequate in terms of quantities used per sector, where and when. However, because of high costs of maintaining equipment for monitoring use, it is very difficult to obtain this information in developing arid and semi- arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. The use of proxy method such as calculation of evapotranspiration is proposed as a cheaper means for such data acquisition. Water consumption through crop evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component of water withdrawal, …
Data-Driven Rainfall/Runoff Modelling Based On A Neuro-Fuzzy Inferential System,
2016
University of Florence
Data-Driven Rainfall/Runoff Modelling Based On A Neuro-Fuzzy Inferential System, N. Bartoletti, F. Casagli, S. Marsili-Libelli, A. Nardi, A. Oliva, L. Palandri
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The development of rainfall/runoff models may involve extensive computation and differing platforms, including GIS. In this paper we present a simple data-driven approach which avoids the use of GIS, but is based on a combination of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to produce a simple and effective output flow prediction based on previous rainfall/runoff data. Given the ANFIS internal complexity, the emphasis of the paper is on how to set-up the most representative and parsimonious data structure that produces an efficient output flow estimation. In the preliminary data reduction stage, the PCA approach …
A Bayesian Method For Data Assimilation In Probabilistic Wave Forecasting,
2016
HR Wallingford UK
A Bayesian Method For Data Assimilation In Probabilistic Wave Forecasting, Quillon Harpham, Nigel Tozer, Paul Cleverley, David Wyncoll, Doug Cresswell
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
New innovations are emerging which offer opportunities to reduce the uncertainty of forecasts of wave conditions. These include probabilistic modelling results, such as those based on an ensemble of multiple predictions which can provide a measure of the uncertainty, and new sources of observational data such as GNSS reflectometry and FerryBoxes, which can be combined with an increased availability of more traditional static sensors. This paper outlines an application of the Bayesian statistical methodology which combines these innovations. The method modifies the probabilities of ensemble wave forecasts based on recent past performance of individual members against a set of observations …
Plant Trait-Based Assessment Of The Pasture Simulation Model,
2016
PEGASE, Agrocampus Ouest, INRA
Plant Trait-Based Assessment Of The Pasture Simulation Model, Anne-Isabelle Graux, Katja Klumpp, Shaoxiu Ma, Raphaël Martin, Gianni Bellocchi
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We used a functional trait-based plant classification to improve the plant module of the biogeochemical grassland model PaSim. Based on four main classes (A, B, C, D) and two derived types (b, d) covering a gradient from high to low productive/fertile grassland vegetation types, we derived new classes of model plant parameters representing an evolution of a previous parameterization obtained by calibration without considering any plant diversity. Illustrative results are presented for the French grassland site of Laqueuille, by comparing two grazing management treatments: high animal stocking rate and fertilisation “intensive” (type B) and low animal stocking rate “extensive” (type …
Big Data In Environmental And Human Health Risk Assessment: Opportunities And Challenges,
2016
Universitat Rovira i Virgili
Big Data In Environmental And Human Health Risk Assessment: Opportunities And Challenges, Vikas Kumar
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Big Data is broad term for large data sets arriving from multiple sources with typological and structural complexities which presents integrational, analytical and visualization challenge to extract meaningful information. In the human health risk assessment, the amount of data is exploding from basic science to clinically based omics, High Throughput Screening (HTS) to biosensors, large scale biomonitoring to multigenerational individual and population based studies. The scattered “Big Data” captures the opportunities as well as challenges in accessing, integrating, managing and analysing the datasets of diverse data types. The aim of this study is to perform a systematic review of the …
Reconciling Information From Climate-Economic Model Ensembles,
2016
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Reconciling Information From Climate-Economic Model Ensembles, A. Shchiptsova, D. Kovalevsky, E. Rovenskaya
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
To date, no model building process can guarantee full representation of the complex climate-economic processes and narrow down the uncertainty associated with future climate projections. Multiple highly detailed models are developed by individual research groups to capture various known aspects of the climate processes. Normally, these models represent only a part of the climate-society system due to its complexity. On the other hand, a number of the simplified integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been put forward in the attempt to introduce the full causal loop between accumulated emissions, economy and climate, and study associated uncertainty. We present a simplified system …
Comparison Of Parametric And Non-Parametric Disaggregation Models For The Top-Down Generation Of Water Demand Time Series,
2016
University of Ferrara
Comparison Of Parametric And Non-Parametric Disaggregation Models For The Top-Down Generation Of Water Demand Time Series, S. Alvisi, N. Ansaloni, M. Franchini
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This study presents a “top-down” procedure for generating synthetic time series of hourly nodal water demands from time series of the total water demands in the area that includes the nodes considered, based on the application of disaggregation models already presented in the literature in the field of hydrology. More specifically, a parametric and a nonparametric disaggregation model are compared to assess their performance in reproducing, on a nodal level, the main statistics of the time series of historically observed water demands. Moreover, with regard to the nonparametric model, two variants of the original formulation are proposed with the aim …
Measuring Household Vulnerability: A Fuzzy Approach,
2016
Bard Center for Environmental Policy
Measuring Household Vulnerability: A Fuzzy Approach, Gautam Sethi, Molly Gilligan, Amy Richmond
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This research develops an index of vulnerability for Ugandan households using a variety of economic, social and environmental variables with two objectives. First, there is only a small body of research that measures household vulnerability. Given the stresses faced by households susceptible to water, environment, food, livelihood, energy, and health security concerns, it is critical that they be identified in order to make effective policy. We draw on the socio-ecological systems (SES) framework described by Ostrom (2009) and adapt the model developed by from Giupponi, Giove, and Giannini (2013) to develop a composite measure. Second, most indices in the literature …
Web Service Based Approach To Link Heterogeneous Climate-Energy-Economy Models For Climate Change Mitigation Analysis,
2016
University of Twente
Web Service Based Approach To Link Heterogeneous Climate-Energy-Economy Models For Climate Change Mitigation Analysis, Getachew F. Belete, Alexey Voinov, Tatyana Bulavskaya, Leila Niamir, Kishore Dhavala
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Climate change mitigation analysis requires understanding the causes and identifying the possible alternative actions that could be taken. We linked heterogeneous models that focus on climate, energy, and economy for the purpose of climate change mitigation. The models were originally developed to serve as standalone tools for some specific purposes. The models operate at various levels of complexity, different temporal and spatial scales, from individual to global. They were developed using quite different assumptions and modeling paradigms and tools. One of them is a Computable General Equilibrium model, the second is an Integrated Assessment Model, and the third one is …
Uncertainty Quantification With Polynomial Chaos Expansion In Ensemble Based Data Assimilation Framework,
2016
CECI Cerfacs/CNRS
Uncertainty Quantification With Polynomial Chaos Expansion In Ensemble Based Data Assimilation Framework, N. El Mocayd, S. Ricci, M. Rochoux, N. Goutal, S. Boyaval, C. Goeury, D. Lucor
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In hydraulic simulations, water level calculations suffer from uncertainty in various physical and numerical parameters that translate into uncertainty in simulated water level. Usually, a classical Monte-Carlo method sampling is used to quantify uncertainty, but this approach is quite expensive as it requires a large number of the forward model integrations. This study aims at developing a cost- effective stochastic approach adapted to open-channel flows assuming that the uncertainty is mostly due to roughness coefficient and input discharge. We investigate the ability of a polynomial chaos expansion to evaluate the probabilistic features of the water level with the same accuracy …
Up In The Air: Understanding Vulnerability When Toilets Fly,
2016
United States Military Academy, West Point
Up In The Air: Understanding Vulnerability When Toilets Fly, Amy Krakowka Richmond, Suzanne Pierce, Sethi Gautam
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Across sub-Saharan Africa, both natural and social factors contribute to household level vulnerability. This case study focuses specifically on Uganda, which has made progress towards meeting the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals, most notably halving the proportion of the population that is below the poverty line. Despite these impressive achievements, many households remain vulnerable to multiple social and environmental stressors. A better understanding of the drivers of household level vulnerability will assist stakeholders and policy-makers in determining what drives vulnerability at a household level, where vulnerable populations are, and suggest what type of aid to target specific locations to be …
