Uncertainty Quantification With Polynomial Chaos Expansion In Ensemble Based Data Assimilation Framework,
2016
CECI Cerfacs/CNRS
Uncertainty Quantification With Polynomial Chaos Expansion In Ensemble Based Data Assimilation Framework, N. El Mocayd, S. Ricci, M. Rochoux, N. Goutal, S. Boyaval, C. Goeury, D. Lucor
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In hydraulic simulations, water level calculations suffer from uncertainty in various physical and numerical parameters that translate into uncertainty in simulated water level. Usually, a classical Monte-Carlo method sampling is used to quantify uncertainty, but this approach is quite expensive as it requires a large number of the forward model integrations. This study aims at developing a cost- effective stochastic approach adapted to open-channel flows assuming that the uncertainty is mostly due to roughness coefficient and input discharge. We investigate the ability of a polynomial chaos expansion to evaluate the probabilistic features of the water level with the same accuracy …
Up In The Air: Understanding Vulnerability When Toilets Fly,
2016
United States Military Academy, West Point
Up In The Air: Understanding Vulnerability When Toilets Fly, Amy Krakowka Richmond, Suzanne Pierce, Sethi Gautam
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Across sub-Saharan Africa, both natural and social factors contribute to household level vulnerability. This case study focuses specifically on Uganda, which has made progress towards meeting the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals, most notably halving the proportion of the population that is below the poverty line. Despite these impressive achievements, many households remain vulnerable to multiple social and environmental stressors. A better understanding of the drivers of household level vulnerability will assist stakeholders and policy-makers in determining what drives vulnerability at a household level, where vulnerable populations are, and suggest what type of aid to target specific locations to be …
Big Data In Land Change Science: Challenges And Implications Of Advanced Technologies,
2016
LISER
Big Data In Land Change Science: Challenges And Implications Of Advanced Technologies, Hichem Omrani, Amin Tayyebi
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Big data has received a lot of attentions during last decade. Dealing with big data is a complex task as it is challenging to analyse, store, model and make sense of big data. Using big data in land change science (LCS) is a new area of research. One of the main challenges in LCS is using big data for model calibration effectively. In this study, we propose using clustering technique, based on k-means approach, to handle big land-use data and overcome the limitation of model calibration. With clustering, data are partitioned into smaller subsets and are t hen analysed …
Developement Of Data Fusion Methods For An Improved Estimation Of Soil Moisture,
2016
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)
Developement Of Data Fusion Methods For An Improved Estimation Of Soil Moisture, Felix Linde
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This talk presents recent work on data fusion methods applied to the estimation of soil moisture by means of remote sensing. Particularly in research dealing with landscapes and agriculture there is a need for spatially and temporally resolved estimation of soil moisture from local to regional level and beyond. The methods to evaluate the water content of the soil range from direct measurements, optical and microwave remote sensing to modeling based on precipitation measurements. Usually the availability of the specific data defines the used method. The uncertainties connected to each way of estimation vary with weather conditions, region and data …
Developing A Stochastic Simulation Model For The Generation Of Residential Water End-Use Demand Time Series,
2016
Politecnico di Milano
Developing A Stochastic Simulation Model For The Generation Of Residential Water End-Use Demand Time Series, A. Cominola, M. Giuliani, Andrea Castelleti, A. M. Abdallah, D. E. Rosenberg
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Smart metering technologies allow for gathering high resolution water demand data in the residential sector, opening up new opportunities for the development of models describing water consumers’ behaviors. Yet, gathering such accurate water demand data at the end-use level is limited by metering intrusiveness, costs, and privacy issues. In this paper, we contribute a stochastic simulation model for synthetically generating high-resolution time series of water use at the end-use level. Each water end-use fixture in our model is characterized by its signature (i.e., its typical single-use pattern), as well as frequency distributions of its number of uses per day, single …
Planning Complex Agro-Ecosystems: The Case Of Analog Forestry,
2016
Politecnico di Milano
Planning Complex Agro-Ecosystems: The Case Of Analog Forestry, F. Recanati, Giorgio Guariso, M. Saini, Sergio Vilchez Mendoza
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Traditional agroecosystems, aimed at maximizing the short term productivity, are characterized by oversimplification of ecological structure and dependence on the use of external inputs. Moreover, intensive agriculture is one of the main cause of deforestation. The main consequence of traditional agriculture is the loss of natural ecosystems and of their precious services. Analog forestry has emerged as a sustainable productive model able to be integrated in forest contexts, without degrading their ecological functions. The obtained agro-ecosystem is characterized by an ecological structure similar to the one of forest, and by the presence of several productive species in the same area. …
Participatory Simulation And Learning Process: Technology Matters!,
2016
CNRS, UMR LIENSs
Participatory Simulation And Learning Process: Technology Matters!, Nicolas Becu, Pierre Bommel, Christophe Le Page, François Bousquet
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Participatory modelling (PM) is an approach under constant renewal due to its close link to available technologies and evolution of learning habits of citizens. Since the years 2000 many PM research projects leapt into the breach of hybrid simulation to produce new modes of interaction between PM session’s participants. This paper reports on the advances of participatory simulation (PS) – the branch of PM that focuses on learning by interacting with a collective simulation – on using different projection technologies for participants’ interfaces. The use of two types of technologies is analyzed in this paper: ultra-short throw projector and distribution …
Estimation Of Evapotranspiration In Heterogeneous Landscape Using Simplified Surface Energy Balance Operational,
2016
Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB)
Estimation Of Evapotranspiration In Heterogeneous Landscape Using Simplified Surface Energy Balance Operational, T. Alemayehu, A. Van Griensven, G. Senay, Willy Bauwens
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Evapotranspiration (ET) has important practical significance in water resources planning and management, irrigation scheduling and environmental issues as well as hydrological model parameterization. The objective of this study is to map ET using thermal-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance Operational (SSEBop) model across a heterogeneous landscape in the Mara basin. We used level three clear sky Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature at 1km spatial scale. Since the study area has poor weather monitoring network, the weather parameter required to derive the reference evapotranspiration and evaporative fraction is retrieved from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) dataset. The analyses …
Influence Of Multi-Temporal High Resolution Remote Sensing Products On Simulated Hydrometeorological Variables In The South-West Of France,
2016
CESBIO, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS
Influence Of Multi-Temporal High Resolution Remote Sensing Products On Simulated Hydrometeorological Variables In The South-West Of France, Jordi Etchanchu, Vincent Rivalland, Simon Gascoin, Jérôme Cros, Tiphaine Tallec, Claire Marais-Sicre
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Agricultural landscapes are often a patchwork of crop fields whose seasonal evolution depends on specific crop rotation and phenologies. This temporal and spatial heterogeneity have an impact on surface hydrometeorological processes. Accurately evaluating its effect remains a challenge for water management agencies in a context of drought and irrigation supply. The satellite remote sensing products from the Sentinel-2 mission will allow the monitoring of the land cover and the vegetation dynamics. The unprecedented spatial-temporal resolution (5 days, 20m) is fully compatible with heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. In our study we proposed to evaluate the contribution of these remote sensing data on …
A Mathematical Procedure To Estimate Variations Between Grain-Size Distributions,
2016
Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA)
A Mathematical Procedure To Estimate Variations Between Grain-Size Distributions, Laura Calcagni, Bianca Di Lorenzo, Rossella Di Mento, Ornella Nonnis, Anna Maria Cicero
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Grain-size is the most fundamental property of sediment particles, its analysis is essential to understand sediment provenance, transport history and depositional conditions. In the ambit of environmental monitoring a key point is often the study of the variations of sediments composition in terms of variation of their grain-size distributions. In this work it is presented a procedure based on the computing of easy mathematical indexes useful to perform in an effective way the comparison of grain-size distributions. The developed procedure consists in two steps of analysis to quantify the dissimilarities between grain-size distributions and to characterize the typology of occurred …
Modeling Herding Behavior On Financial Markets Affected By Exogenous Climate-Related Shocks,
2016
Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre (NIERSC), Saint Petersburg State University
Modeling Herding Behavior On Financial Markets Affected By Exogenous Climate-Related Shocks, Dmitry V. Kovalevsky
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In many economic models (including many models from economics of climate change) the agents make decisions solely on the basis of ‘objective’ information (e.g., the market price level). However, a number of alternative modeling frameworks have been developed, where individual economic agents, when making decisions, take into account the observed behavior of other economic agents. One of pioneering contributions to this research area was the Kirman’s ‘ant model’ (Kirman, 1993). While initially the model was applied to describing the collective behavior of social insects (ants), later it was extensively used for describing the ‘herding behavior’ in economic systems. Particularly, ‘herding …
Comparison Of Flood Modeling Approaches In Semi-Arid Mountainous Catchments (High-Atlas, Morocco),
2016
Université Cadi Ayyad
Comparison Of Flood Modeling Approaches In Semi-Arid Mountainous Catchments (High-Atlas, Morocco), El Mahdi El Khalki, Yves Tramblay, Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In semi-arid regions such as the Mediterranean basin, floods usually represent a large contribution to water resources. In addition, climate scenarios indicate a possible increase in extreme events in the Mediterranean region. Therefore, it is necessary to model floods to better understand the processes involved and predict these risks. The Moroccan catchments flowing downstream of the High-Atlas Mountains are among the areas most vulnerable to flooding. The Issyl catchment (170km²) is located at the foothills of the High Atlas Mountains, with altitudes ranging from 632 to 2295m, and producing floods that directly affect the city of Marrakech. The Rheraya catchment …
Faraway, So Close: An Agent Based Model For Climate, Energy And Macroeconomic Policy,
2016
Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna
Faraway, So Close: An Agent Based Model For Climate, Energy And Macroeconomic Policy, Francesco Lamperti, Giovanni Dosi, Mauro Napoletano, Andrea Roventini, Alessandro Sapio
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This paper presents an agent based model for the study of coupled economic and climate dynamics that endogenously co-evolve across a range of different scenarios. The model offers a flexible laboratory to test various combinations of macroeconomic, industrial and climate policies both in the context of long run economic growth and medium run transition towards a greener economy. Furthermore, we propose a stochastic description of the feedbacks stemming from a warming and more volatile climate and study how such negative shocks propagate through the economy. For this reason, the model is particularly well suited for the study of extreme climate …
Investing In Adaptation: Flood Risk And Real Option Application To Bilbao,
2016
Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)
Investing In Adaptation: Flood Risk And Real Option Application To Bilbao, Luis M. Abadie, Elisa Sainz De Murieta, Ibon Galarraga
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Investment decisions in adaptation are usually made under significant uncertainty due to climate change and socio-economic trends. Extreme events cause damage and may become more frequent over time. In this study we propose three ways to incorporate climate and socioeconomic uncertainty into the assessment of adaptation infrastructures in the city of Bilbao. The first suggestions is to use stochastic modelling, which makes it possible at any given time to estimate the present value of expected damage over a time period, considering that extreme events will increase in the future due to climate and socio-economic conditions. An analytical solution for the …
Learning On The Relationships Between Respiratory Desease And The Use Of Traditional Stoves In Bangladesh Households,
2016
University Research Institute for Sustainability Science and Technology, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya – Barcelona Tech
Learning On The Relationships Between Respiratory Desease And The Use Of Traditional Stoves In Bangladesh Households, Camila Vergara, Iñigo Arregui, Alain Balaguer, Tamia Gómez, Carmen Sandoval, Miquel Sànchez Marrè, Karina Gibert
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
More than 4 million people die prematurely every year by deseases related to indoor air pollution produced by solid fuels used in cooking (WHO, 2016, Jones 1999), fifty thousand of them in Bangladesh (News Medical, 2012), being women and children the most affected. Risk of pneumonia is high due to the irritants, toxins and carcinogens realeased into air by the incomplete combustion of solid fuels (biomass) used in traditional stoves (WHO 2016), which produce PM10 (particulate matter, small enough (≤10μm) to get into lungs). An open data base from the World Bank (WHO, 2016) (Dasgutpa et al 2006) describing a …
Online Processing Of Energy And Water Consumption Data To Deliver End Use Characterisation,
2016
Hupac Intermodal SA,
Online Processing Of Energy And Water Consumption Data To Deliver End Use Characterisation, Andrea Vescovi, Dario Piga, Andrea Cominola, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Castelleti, Andrea Emilio Rizzoli
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Monitoring the household end-use energy and water consumption is essential to design efficient resource management programs and to provide personalized feedback to consumers, so that: (i) users are aware of how much energy/water each appliance is consuming, and personalized hints for reducing their consumption can be given; (ii) household’s occupants can be informed on potential savings in deferring the use of some appliances to off-peak hours; (iii) water utilities can test the impact of different management strategies. In this work, we present a Java Web Service implementation of a recently-developed algorithm for decomposing the aggregate (energy or water) household consumption …
Balancing Trade-Offs Among Aquatic Ecosystem Services While Navigating Through Regime Shifts,
2016
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
Balancing Trade-Offs Among Aquatic Ecosystem Services While Navigating Through Regime Shifts, Romina Martin, Maja Schlüter
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Eutrophication can cause shallow lakes to experience regime shifts from the clear to the turbid state which impairs multiple dependent ecosystem services (such as drinking water or sites for recreational activities). While in most cases the clear state is seen as favorable, once it shifted to the turbid, its restoration is difficult and the costs often outweigh the expected benefits. While in some places costly restorations are under way, e.g. through biomanipulation and wetland construction, it remains challenging to implement measures that are able to support multiple ecosystem services simultaneously without compromising other connected services. More precisely, lake managers need …
On Spatial Complexity Of Parameters In Agro-Ecosystem Watershed Models: Confounding Or Illuminating?,
2016
USDA-ARS-PA, Water Management and Systems Research Unit
On Spatial Complexity Of Parameters In Agro-Ecosystem Watershed Models: Confounding Or Illuminating?, Timothy R. Green, Robert H. Erskine, Patrícia P. N. Da Cruz, Ricardo De O. Figueiredo, Holm Kipka, James Ascough, Gregory S. Mcmaster, Olaf David
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Increased confidence is often sought by adding spatial complexity to watershed models and model parameters; does increasing complexity improve the results or just make us feel better about the modeling effort? The answer to this question can depend upon the dominant biophysical properties of a watershed, knowledge of different types or layers of spatial variability, and the information content of the measured responses. The context for this study comprises a large literature base, particularly in the field of hydrology, some of which will be discussed. A balance of “lumping” and “splitting” is proposed in a conceptual framework, where lumping (spatial …
Modelling For Reproducibility, Transparency, And Continuous Learning: Revisiting Jakeman’S 10 Steps,
2016
Grey Bruce Centre for Agroecology
Modelling For Reproducibility, Transparency, And Continuous Learning: Revisiting Jakeman’S 10 Steps, Thorsten Arnold
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Numerical modelling has become the standard tool to evaluate vast amounts of data, both for the public management of natural resources by government agencies and to understand environmental interactions within academia. While an ever-increasing amount of software tools is being developed and approaches are formulated how modellers should interact with stakeholders, the modelling community has not yet addressed criteria how these tools and approaches are applied cost effectively. Across the board, public agencies and academia continue to experience budget and time overruns that are systematic and need to be addressed if environmental modelling shall provide the benefits that modellers claim. …
Climate Change Impacts On Precipitation Extremes, Flows And Flash Floods In Mediterranean Mesoscale Catchments,
2016
CECI,CERFACS – CNRS TOULOUSE, Université de Montpellier – Hydrosciences Montpellier, Institut Montpelliérains de l’Eau et de l’Environnement – IRD, WSP France
Climate Change Impacts On Precipitation Extremes, Flows And Flash Floods In Mediterranean Mesoscale Catchments, Antoine Colmet Daage, Sophie Ricci, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Valérie Borrell Estupina, Eric Servat, Cécile Llovel
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Mediterranean meso-scale river catchments are submitted to extremes floods events linked to intense convective precipitation and local hydrologic features (karst, soil moisture, land use).The Mediterranean region is known to be one of the most affected areas by global warming, and it is likely that changes can be expected in the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to assess the climate change impacts on extreme precipitation events using a so-called “futurization” method, in which a transfer function is built by comparing the quantiles of distribution for both present and future climate precipitation. A number of historical flood events, previously …
