Other Economics Commons^™

Optimized Forecasting Of Dominant U.S. Stock Market Equities Using Univariate And Multivariate Time Series Analysis Methods, Michael Schwartz

Computational and Data Sciences Theses

This dissertation documents an investigation into forecasting U.S. stock market equities via two very different time series analysis techniques: 1) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and 2) singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Approximately 40% of the S&P 500 stocks are analyzed. Forecasts are generated for one and five days ahead using daily closing prices. Univariate and multivariate structures are applied and results are compared. One objective is to explore the hypothesis that a multivariate model produces superior performance over a univariate configuration. Another objective is to compare the forecasting performance of ARIMA to SSA, as SSA is a relatively recent development …

A Process For Field Studies In Behavioral Economics, Victoria Ferraro

Senior Honors Projects

Field experiments enable economists to test whether theory adequately captures behavior in natural settings, or whether evidence supports reevaluating the reasoned abstractions comprising the theory. Economics, and social science more generally, has increasingly valued the evidence provided by field studies. These studies typically require a relationship with an external partner site providing the environment for the study, but existent research offers little guidance for developing these relationships and designing procedures for effective collaboration. The purpose of this paper is to provide greater insight into what is necessary to conduct field experiments in economics, particularly behavioral economics in private market settings. …

Consequences Of Information Asymmetry On Corporate Risk Management, Howard J. Merrill Iii

Applied Economics Theses

This paper will demonstrate the impact information asymmetry has on risk management. There is a noticeable impact within the context of consumer credit risk. If a firm is able to recognize this, they can make improved credit decisions that will reduce the consequences. The theoretical impact will be presented while depicting areas of risk management that are susceptible to information asymmetry. We find a direct impact on the development of scoring models, credit policies, and origination volume. These results hold for banks with portfolios consisting of consumer credit products and small business loans. Once known, banks can better tailor their …

Does A Better Running Back Mean More Rushing? Game Theory And The Nfl, Eric Lofquist

Honors Scholar Theses

In this paper I attempt to answer the question of whether or not teams in the National Football League (NFL) rush less with a better running back. This seems counterintuitive, but game theory supposes that this is true. Defenses facing a better running back will generally expect the offense to rush more and therefore defend the run more often. The offense, foreseeing the defense’s actions, will choose to pass more to counteract the run defense. This is the basis of the difference between the strategic effect and the direct effect in mixed strategies. The direct effect is when a player …

The Economics Of The Right To Be Forgotten, Byung-Cheol Kim, Jin Yeub Kim

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

Scholars and practitioners debate whether to expand the scope of the right to be forgotten—the right to have certain links removed from search results—to encompass global search results. The debate centers on the assumption that the expansion will increase the incidence of link removal, which reinforces privacy while hampering free speech. We develop a game-theoretic model to show that the expansion of the right to be forgotten can reduce the incidence of link removal. We also show that the expansion does not necessarily enhance the welfare of individuals who request removal and that it can either improve or reduce societal …

Gender, Punishment, And Cooperation: Men Hurt Others To Advance Their Interests, Terence C. Burnham

ESI Working Papers

A laboratory experiment that reports on gender, cooperation, and punishment in two repeated public goods game using high-powered punishment. In a repeated public goods game with punishment, no statistically significant differences between men and women are reported. In a modified game that adds an explicit payoff for relative performance, men punish more than women, men obtain higher rank, and punishment by males decreases payoffs for both men and for women. These results contribute to the debate about the origins and maintenance of cooperation.

Comparing A Risky Choice In The Field And Across Lab Procedures, Zuzana Brokesova, Cary Deck, Jana Peliova

ESI Publications

Controlled laboratory experiments have become a generally accepted method for studying economic behavior, but there are two issues regarding the reliability of such work. The first pertains to the ability to generalize experimental results outside the laboratory. The second pertains to the impact the payment procedure has on observed behavior. This paper adds empirical insight into both issues. Using data from the promotional campaign of a bank and a laboratory experiment that closely mimics the same decision, we find similar levels of risk taking controlling for gender and age. We also compare behavior on this same risky choice across three …

Coronary Atherosclerosis In Indigenous South American Tsimane: A Cross-Sectional Cohort Study, Hillard Kaplan, Randall C. Thompson, Benjamin C. Trumble, L. Samuel Wann, Adel H. Allam, Bret Beheim, Bruno Frohlich, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Jonathan Stieglitz, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, David E. Michalik, Chris J. Rowan, Guido P. Lombardi, Ram Bedi, Angela R. Garcia, James K. Min, Jagat Narula, Caleb E. Finch, Michael Gurven, Gregory S. Thomas

ESI Publications

Background—Conventional coronary artery disease risk factors might potentially explain at least 90% of the attributable risk of coronary artery disease. To better understand the association between the pre-industrial lifestyle and low prevalence of coronary artery disease risk factors, we examined the Tsimane, a Bolivian population living a subsistence lifestyle of hunting, gathering, fishing, and farming with few cardiovascular risk factors, but high infectious inflammatory burden.

Methods—We did a cross-sectional cohort study including all individuals who self-identified as Tsimane and who were aged 40 years or older. Coronary atherosclerosis was assessed by coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring done with …

Smile, Dictator, You’Re On Camera, Joy A. Buchanan, Matthew K. Mcmahon, Matthew Simpson, Bart J. Wilson

ESI Publications

We investigate the degree to which people in a shopping mall express other-regarding behavior in the dictator game. Whereas many studies have attempted to increase the social distance between the dictator and experimenter and between the dictator and dictatee, we attempt to minimize that social distance between random strangers by video recording the decisions with the permission of the dictators to display their image on the Internet. Offers made by dictators are high relative to other experiments and a nontrivial number give the entire experimental windfall away, however a nontrivial number of people keep everything as well.

The Tsimane Health And Life History Project: Integrating Anthropology And Biomedicine, Michael Gurven, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble, Aaron D. Blackwell, Bret Beheim, Helen Davis, Hillard Kaplan, Paul L. Hooper

ESI Publications

The Tsimane Health and Life History Project, an integrated bio-behavioral study of the human life course, is designed to test competing hypotheses of human life-history evolution. One aim is to understand the bidirectional connections between life history and social behavior in a highfertility, kin-based context lacking amenities of modern urban life (e.g. sanitation, banks, electricity). Another aim is to understand how a high pathogen burden influences health and well-being during development and adulthood. A third aim addresses how modernization shapes human life histories and sociality. Here we outline the project’s goals, history, and main findings since its inception in 2002. …

A Study Of The Triggers Of Conflict And Emotional Reactions, Michael Caldera, Michael T. Mcbride, Matthew W. Mccarter, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Publications

We study three triggers of conflict and explore their resultant emotional reactions in a laboratory experiment. Economists suggest that the primary trigger of conflict is monetary incentives. Social psychologists suggest that conflicts are often triggered by fear. Finally, evolutionary biologists suggest that a third trigger is uncertainty about an opponent’s desire to cause harm. Consistent with the predictions from economics, social psychology, and evolutionary biology, we find that conflict originates from all three triggers. The three triggers differently impact the frequency of conflict, but not the intensity. Also, we find that the frequency and intensity of conflict decrease positive emotions …

Do Farm Subsidies Affect Crop Diversification?, Chadwick O'Neal

Georgia College Student Research Events

The United States spends $20 billion each year on farm subsidies. Farmers face increased risk and income variation when their crop portfolio is less diversified. It’s possible for farm subsidies to decrease diversification if they are focused on specific crops. Utilizing state level subsidy and agricultural data from the Environmental Working Group, I used econometric analysis to estimate the effect of farm subsidies on crop diversification. I used the number of acres planted from the 15 top most subsidized and grown crops in the United States to derive my dependent variable, the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI). The HHI is a market …

Trends In U.S. Tea Imports: 1991-2015, Evan Kennedy

Honors Theses

Tea is the second most popular beverage in the world, and over the past two decades it has experienced a newfound popularity in the United States. Over this time period, ready-to-drink and loose-leaf tea has increased in popularity, whereas tea bags and instant tea declined in popularity. Since the United States produces almost no tea itself, an increase in consumption requires increased imports. Therefore, this paper examines U.S. import trends as a means to begin an examination of consumption. Ten countries (Argentina, Canada, China, Germany, India, Japan, Kenya, Sri Lanka, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam) provide approximately 80% of the …

Emotional Calibration Of Self-Control, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Eric Schniter

ESI Publications

We study a dynamic model of self-control where previous decisions have influence on subsequent decision making. In our model effort and guilt are negative emotions produced by previous decisions to either resist or yield to temptation, respectively. These emotions calibrate an individual's self-control, in turn affecting future decisions. Our model explains non-stationary consumption paths characterized by compensatory indulgence and restraint, why under some circumstances the amplitude of this switching pattern increases with foresight, and how unavoidable options that might show up on one's menu influence choices, consequent emotions, consumption paths, and preferences for commitment. We discuss the implications of self-control …

Profitable Horizontal Mergers Without Efficiencies Can Increase Consumer Surplus, Charles J. Thomas

ESI Working Papers

In a simple model I show consumer surplus can increase after competing sellers consummate a profitable merger that generates no cost savings. This finding contrasts sharply with the conventional wisdom that horizontal mergers without efficiencies must enhance sellers’ market power to be profitable, thereby harming buyers. The model fits industries in which individual buyers conduct distinct procurement contests for which sellers incur costs to participate, say to assess their product’s fit with the buyer’s preferences. Mergers benefit buyers by inducing stronger contest-level entry, echoing common claims from merging parties that their merger is beneficial because it creates a stronger competitor.

The Ideological Roots Of Institutional Change, Murat Iyigun, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

Why do some societies fail to adopt more efficient institutions in response to changing economic conditions? And why do such conditions sometimes generate ideological backlashes and at other times lead to transformative sociopolitical movements? We propose an explanation that highlights the interplay--or lack thereof--between new technologies, ideologies, and institutions. When new technologies emerge, uncertainty results from a lack of understanding how the technology will fit with prevailing ideologies and institutions. This uncertainty discourages investment in institutions and the cultural capital necessary to take advantage of new technologies. Accordingly, increased uncertainty during times of rapid technological change may generate an ideological …

The Economic Legacies Of Lingering Colonialism: A Case Study In Identity And Multiculturalism In Northern Morocco And The Spanish Enclaves, Jeremy Vale

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Founded in ancient times, the twin Spanish cities of Ceuta and Melilla combined comprise just 11.8 square miles and have fewer than 200,000 inhabitants. Despite their rather insignificant sizes, they are important because they serve as the only land borders between the European Union and the African continent, generating a host of complicated questions. This research explores the role of smuggling as a form of micro-economy and identity. Through interviews of Moroccans with ties to smuggling as well as interviews with residents of Ceuta, this case study begins to examine the role smuggling plays in the debates about the sovereignty …

Foreign Aid Allocation And Impact In Latin America And The Caribbean (Lac): A Cross-Country Analysis Of Foreign Aid Impact On Gdp Per Capita And Life Expectancy, Ancito Etienne

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This research paper is an empirical study of the impact of official development assistance and official aid received, [henceforth, to be referred to as “foreign aid”], on life expectancy and GDP per capita in Latin America and the Caribbean. I used a panel dataset of 19 countries dated from 1996 to 2014 to perform two distinctive regressions using the OLS method. In addition, an exploration of the impact of GDP per capita on life expectancy was conducted to determine whether there was a cause and effect phenomenon; that is, testing whether an impact of foreign aid on GDP per capita …

The Cultural Transmission Of Trust Norms: Evidence From A Lab In The Field On A Natural Experiment, Jared Rubin, Elira Karaja

ESI Working Papers

We conduct trust games in three villages in a northeastern Romanian commune. From 1775-1919, these villages were arbitrarily assigned to opposite sides of the Habsburg and Ottoman/Russian border despite being located seven kilometers apart. Russian and Ottoman Öscal institutions were more rapacious than Habsburg institutions, which may have eroded trust of outsiders (relative to co-villagers). Our design permits us to rigorously test this conjecture, and more generally, whether historically institutionalized cultural norms are transmitted intergenerationally. We Önd that participants on the Ottoman/Russian side are indeed less likely to trust outsiders but more likely to trust co-villagers.

Horticultural Activity Predicts Later Localized Limb Status In A Contemporary Pre-Industrial Population, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble, Hillard Kaplan, Michael Gurven

ESI Publications

Objectives—Modern humans may have gracile skeletons due to low physical activity levels and mechanical loading. Tests using prehistoric skeletons are limited by the inability to assess behaviour directly, while modern industrialized societies possess few socio-ecological features typical of human evolutionary history. Among Tsimane forager-horticulturalists, we test whether greater activity levels and, thus, increased loading earlier in life are associated with greater later-life bone status and diminished age-related bone loss.

Materials and Methods—We used quantitative ultrasonography to assess radial and tibial status among adults aged 20+ years (mean±SD age=49±15; 52% female). We conducted systematic behavioural observations to assess earlier-life …