Other Economics Commons^™

A Time Series Analysis Of Determinants Of Pce Inflation In The United States, Elliot Charron

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the factors contributing to the PCE inflation rate in the United States. The study incorporates economic determinants in a time series analysis to examine the influence of economic variables on the PCE Inflation rate in the United States. The economic variables include the unemployment rate, wages, inflation expectations, the federal funds rate, the money supply, import prices, and the labor force participation rate. The ADF unit root test shows that the first difference is stationary while the Johansen test of cointegration shows that there is cointegration of 7 and that a vector error correction model (VECM) must …

Comparing Machine Learning Techniques For Predicting Bank Failure, Armen Eghian

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

The study of machine learning has helped create and refine many types of predictive models. These models have been applied to countless problems, but the importance of banking stability has led many researchers to create models predicting if a bank will be active in future years. Neural networks, support vector machines, and traditional regression models, have been used to predict bank failure, but random forests have not been fully explored. This paper shows random forests can offer prediction power greater than neural networks and logit models when used to predict bank failure. This aligns with work comparing random forests and …

The Relationship Between Transportation Accessibility And Economic Development, Abigail Kiggen

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possible relationship between transportation infrastructure accessibility and economic development in a given region. The study will incorporate data from counties in the state of Massachusetts to compare development from previous studies in the New York area. The independent variable will be transportation infrastructure accessibility, and the dependent variable will be measures of economic development. The results show that there are generally not correlations between better accessibility and economic development in a given region.

Evaluating Nuclear Energy As A Component Of U.S. Energy Innovation Systems, Bryce Jones

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Nuclear energy is contentious in policy discussions that evaluate its role in the current U.S. clean energy innovation system. OECD nations, on average, have begun to reduce their dependence on nuclear energy. However, the United States has remained invested in its nuclear energy infrastructure and the role that it plays within federal research and development. This thesis examines the Neo-Schumpeterian perspective and the National Innovation System’s approach, the economic history of nuclear energy in the United States, and given insight from these factors, discusses the current role of nuclear energy in the U.S. energy innovation system. The objective is to …

Benefit-Cost Analysis Of Covid-19 Policy Intervention At The State And National Level, James L. Doti

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

This study analyzes the benefits of statewide policy intervention in reducing COVID-19 deaths and the costs of that intervention in lost jobs and lower real gross state product (RGSP). Policy interventions are measured by the Oxford stringency index which places a daily numerical value on the level of a state’s policy intervention.

Empirical evidence is provided that shows policy interventions have reduced COVID-19 deaths by 375,000 lives in 2020. On the cost side, it was found that policy intervention resulted in a loss of 7.3 million jobs and a decline of $410 billion in RGSP.

The study concludes by integrating …

Follow-Up Enforcement, Andrew K. Jennings

Faculty Articles

Firms sometimes break the law. When they do, a host of government agencies have power to bring enforcement actions against them, which serve to punish past wrongs, compensate victims, disgorge unlawful gains, deter others, and prevent recidivism. Each of these purposes but one—preventing recidivism—is either met or not once the case reaches settlement. Whether recidivism will occur, however, remains uncertain at the time a case is settled. In light of that uncertainty, this Article takes a critical look at how enforcers currently address recidivism prevention—what it dubs the “clawback” approach—under which defendant firms receive penalty credit today in exchange for …

Pandemics, Paid Sick Leaves, And Tax Institutions, Alex Zhang

Faculty Articles

The COVID-19 pandemic is currently ravaging the world, and the United States has been largely unsuccessful at containing the coronavirus. One long-standing policy failure stands out as having exacerbated the pandemic in our country: the lack of a national mandate of paid sick leaves, without which workers face financial and workplace-cultural pressures to attend work while sick, thus spreading the virus to their fellow employees and the public at large.

This Article provides the blueprint for a national, subsidized mandate of paid sick leaves and two additional insights about our tax institutions as mechanisms of effectuating broader societal goals. It …

Prospects And Challenges For Supply Chain Trade Under The Africa Continental Free Trade Area☆:, Jaime De Melo, Anna Twum

Journal of African Trade

No abstract provided.

The Afcfta And African Trade—An Introduction To The Special Issue:, Hippolyte Fofack, Andrew Mold

Journal of African Trade

No abstract provided.

Estimating The Effect Of Afcfta On Intra-African Trade Using Augmented Ge-Ppml:, Hippolyte Fofack, Richman Dzene, Omar A. Mohsen Hussein

Journal of African Trade

No abstract provided.

Quantifying The Impact Of Remapping Floodplains On Residential Property Values In Snohomish County, Washington: A Hedonic Approach, Carson Joseph Risner

All Master's Theses

Flood events are the most common and costly natural disasters. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) quantifies flood risks in the form of Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMS). These FIRMS delineate flood risks and are used to set flood insurance premiums. Changes in land use, the augmentation of the natural environment, is threatening the validity of the Nation’s FIRMS. Therefore, Congress has approved remapping programs to update these FIRMs ensuring that current flood risks are known. This remapping presents another issue, specifically for properties that are remapped into a flood zone. Current literature suggests that properties within flood zones are …

Do Global Pandemics Matter For Stock Prices? Lessons From The 1918 Spanish Flu, Marco Del Angel, Caroline Fohlin, Marc D. Weidenmier

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We study the impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu on U.S. stock prices. We use the death rate to control for the impact of the global pandemic and war news reported in the New York Times to capture the positive effects of the end of World War I on stock prices. Using a new weekly hand collected NYSE stock price index, we show that there is a -.73 correlation between the aggregate stock market and the death rate. Furthermore, vector autoregressions demonstrate that the death rate can explain up to 24 percent of the forecast error variance in the aggregate …

Ways Forward In Energy Markets And The Environment, Jacob Nelson

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Renewable energy sources have come to the forefront of energy production policy over the last twenty years. Studies of external and direct costs of both renewable and nonrenewable energy sources have contributed to growing understandings of ways in which these energy sources can be compared in a monetary context. Using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) alongside international data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) among other sources, we have developed forecasts for the future costs, both direct and social, of each energy source as well as a difference-in-difference experiment to determine potential effects of state-level energy …

Are You Ready For Some Football? Estimating The Effect Of American Football Season On Labor Supply In The United States, Luke Petach, Dustin Rumbaugh

Faculty Scholarship

American football season reduces the Monday labor hours of employed men by two-thirds of an hour. A similar effect is found for Friday labor hours. We term these effects the “hangover effect” and “happy hour effect.” Consistent with a wide class of labor market models, the labor supply effect varies over the business cycle, increasing in expansions. The hangover effect implies an intertemporal elasticity of labor supply on the order of 0.014. Evaluated at the median hourly wage, our estimates imply an annual economic cost of foregone earnings associated with football season in the neighborhood of $5.06 billion.

Three Essays In Applied Urban Economics, Alexander Cardazzi

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The first chapter examines the effect of policing strategies on housing prices. Crime has been shown to negatively affect housing values. However, there is not much empirical evidence documenting the amenity value of how people are policed. Stop & Frisk was a particularly salient policing tactic employed in New York City until a judge ruled it to be unconstitutional. This chapter uses exogenous variation in Stop & Frisk behavior resulting from landmark events in a federal class action lawsuit as well as exposure to Operation Impact, a high intensity policing strategy, to explain variation in property sales. Results indicate a …

Natural Resource Curse, Economic Freedom, Economic Growth And Development: Case Of Africa, Oluwatomisin Shalom Akinbo

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Over the years, there has been discord or lack of agreement on the effect that natural resources have on economic growth and development. This study adopts output approach to investigate the effect that natural resources and institutions (Economic Freedom) have on economic growth for the period of 1960 to 2020 using World Bank data. The analysis employs Multiple Regression Analysis based on augmented Ordinary Least Squares Regression methods. The results are mixed, as the outcome indicates that, while natural resources are positively related to economic growth, there exists a crowding out effect between natural resources and two sectors of the …

Perkembangan Teknologi Informasi, Tfp, Dan Emisi Gas Co2 Di Indonesia, Ganiko Moddilani, Irwandi Irwandi

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

This paper examines the development of information technology, total factor productivity (TFP), and urbanization of CO2 gas emissions in Indonesia from 1975–2014. To discuss empirically, this study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. There are several results in this study. Firstly, the TFP coefficient value in the short term is lower than the long term, so that the Enviromental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is not proven. This is one of the causes of rising CO2 gas emissions. Secondly, information technology has a significant impact on the increase of CO2 gas emissions. Thirdly, Indonesia’s urbanization has reduced CO2 gas emissions.

Three Essays In Applied Econometrics: Agricultural And Energy Economics, Kuan-Ming Huang

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation examines three empirical issues in energy and agricultural economics using econometrics models whose titles are: 1) Do Natural Hazards in the Gulf Coast Still Matter for State-Level Natural Gas Prices in the US? Evidence After the Shale Gas Boom; 2) Do Exploitations of Marcellus and Utica Shale Formations Improve Regional Economy in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia? A Synthetic Control Analysis; and 3) How Did Covid-19 Impact US Household Food Spending? An Analysis Six Months In.

The first essay assesses the impact of natural hazards on state-level natural gas prices and evaluates the effects of the shale gas …

Differences In Cognitive Reflection Mediate Gender Differences In Social Preferences, Antonio M. Espín, Valerio Capraro, Brice Corgnet, Simon Gächter, Roberto Hernán-González, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

Previous studies have shown that women tend to be more egalitarian and less self-interested than men whereas men tend to be more concerned with social efficiency motives. The roots of such differences, however, remain unknown. Since different cognitive styles have also been associated with different distributional social preferences, we hypothesise that gender differences in social preferences can be partially explained by differences in cognitive styles (i.e., women rely more on intuition whereas men are more reflective). We test this hypothesis meta-analytically using data from seven studies conducted in four countries (USA, Spain, India, and UK; n=6,910) where cognitive reflection and …

Strategically Revealing Intentions In General Lotto Games, Keith Paarporn, Rahul Chandan, Dan Kovenock, Mahnoosh Alizadeh, Jason R. Marden

ESI Working Papers

Strategic decision-making in uncertain and adversarial environments is crucial for the security of modern systems and infrastructures. A salient feature of many optimal decision-making policies is a level of unpredictability, or randomness, which helps to keep an adversary uncertain about the system’s behavior. This paper seeks to explore decision-making policies on the other end of the spectrum – namely, whether there are benefits in revealing one’s strategic intentions to an opponent before engaging in competition.We study these scenarios in a well-studied model of competitive resource allocation problem known as General Lotto games. In the classic formulation, two competing players simultaneously …