International Economics Commons^™

Why Are We Still Listening To This Dead British Guy: An Analysis Of Emergency Liquidity Assistance In Germany During The Sovereign Debt Crisis, Nia R. Gillenwater

Scripps Senior Theses

Germany’s position of power within the European Union disguises how impacted the German economy was by the 2008 Financial Crisis and Europe’s subsequent Sovereign Debt Crisis. Two of Germany’s major banks-Commerzbank and Bayerische Landesbank- suffered major losses and required emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to survive. Walter Bagehot wrote the theory underpinning lenders of last resort (LLRs) in 1873 but how has the development of systemically important banks affected the usefulness of Bagehot’s theory? This paper aims to explain why Germany is in need of updated LLR recommendations through an analysis of the ELA Germany at large, Commerzbank and Bayerische Landesbank …

Modelling The Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Non‑Oil Gdp In A Resource Rich Country: Evidence From Azerbaijan, Khatai Aliyev, Bruce Dehning, Orkhan Nadirov

Accounting Faculty Articles and Research

This paper analyses the impact of public expenditures and tax revenues on non‑oil economic growth in Azerbaijan for the period of 2000Q1‑2015Q2 by employing OLS, ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, CCR and Granger Causality techniques. Different cointegration methods result in consistent results. In this study, there is strong evidence of significant long‑run positive contributions from public expenditures to non‑oil sector output. Results also show that tax revenues significantly slow down non‑oil economic growth in the long run. Granger Causality analysis finds the existence of a bidirectional short‑run association between non‑oil GDP and public expenditures, while tax revenues Granger Cause both variables. The …

Targeted Subordination Of Official Sector Debt, Lee C. Buchheit, Mitu Gulati

Faculty Scholarship

If Greece’s debt is unsustainable, and most observers (including the IMF) seem to think it is, the country’s only source of funding will continue to be official sector bailout loans. Languishing for a decade or more as a ward of the official sector is undesirable from all perspectives. The Greeks bridle under what they see as foreign imposed austerity; the taxpayers who fund the official sector loans to Greece balk at the prospect of shoveling good money after bad. The question then is how to facilitate Greece’s ability to tap the private capital markets at tolerable interest rates. The IMF’s …

Competing For Refugees: A Market-Based Solution To A Humanitarian Crisis, Joseph Blocher, Mitu Gulati

Faculty Scholarship

The current refugee crisis demands novel legal solutions, and new ways of summoning the political will to implement them. As a matter of national incentives, the goal must be to design mechanisms that discourage countries of origin from creating refugees, and encourage host countries to welcome them. One way to achieve this would be to recognize that persecuted refugee groups have a financial claim against their countries of origin, and that this claim can be traded to host nations in exchange for acceptance. Modifications to the international apparatus would be necessary, but the basic legal elements of this proposal already …

Talking One's Way Out Of A Debt Crisis, Lee C. Buchheit, G. Mitu Gulati

Faculty Scholarship

The policy of Euro-area officialdom in the period 2010-2011 was to avoid, at all costs, a default and restructuring of the sovereign debt of a member of the monetary union. This policy was motivated principally, but not exclusively, by a fear that the international capital markets, if forcibly reminded of the precarious position of overindebted, growth-challenged members of a monetary union, might recoil generally from lending to European sovereigns. In short, they feared contagion.

The only alternative to permitting a debt restructuring, of course, was an official sector bailout. The afflicted countries -- Greece (until 2012), Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus …

Pricing Contract Terms In A Crisis: Venezuelan Bonds In 2016, Elena Carletti, Paolo Colla, Mitu Gulati, Steven Ongena

Faculty Scholarship

As of this writing in June 2016, the markets are predicting Venezuela to be on the brink of default. On June 1, 2016, the 6 month CDS contract traded at about 7000bps which translates into a likelihood of default of over 90%. Our interest in the Venezuelan crisis is that its outstanding sovereign bonds have a unique set of contractual features that, in combination with its near-default status, have created a natural experiment. This experiment has the potential to shed light on one of the long standing questions that sits at the intersection of the fields of law and finance, …

The Pricing Of Non-Price Terms In Sovereign Bonds: The Case Of The Greek Guarantees, Stephen J. Choi, Mitu Gulati

Faculty Scholarship

In March 2012, Greece conducted one of the biggest and most brutal sovereign debt restructurings ever, asking holders of Greek government bonds to take net present value haircuts of near 80 percent. Greece forced acquiescence to its terms from a large number of its bonds by using a variety of legal strong-arm tactics. With the vast majority of Greek bonds, the tactics worked. There were, however, thirty-six bonds guaranteed by the Greek state, which, because of the weakness of the underlying companies, were effectively obligations of the Greek state. Yet, on these thirty six bonds, even though Greece desperately needed …

Equity Commitment Under Uncertainty: A Hierarchical Model Of Real Option Entry Mode Choices, Rossitza B. Wooster, Luisa Blanco, W. Charles Sawyer

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We develop a real option hierarchical model of entry mode choice and test predictions using a sample of US companies in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1980 and 2005. Probit results indicate that the choice between a real option non-equity mode and equity commitment is influenced by previous acquisition experience, R&D and advertising intensities, and country risk. The choice of the more flexible real option JV mode over WOEs is positively related to greater firm size and market-to-book ratio in countries with better infrastructure. In contrast, greater marketing intensity and lower country risk encourage WOEs.

The Sovereign-Debt Listing Puzzle, Elisabeth De Fontenay, Josefin Meyer, Mitu Gulati

Faculty Scholarship

The claim that stock exchanges perform certification and monitoring roles in securities offerings is pervasive in the legal and financial literatures. This article tests the validity of this “bonding hypothesis” in the sovereign-bond market—one of the oldest and largest securities markets in the world. Using data on sovereign-bond listings for the entire post-World War II period, we provide the first comprehensive report on sovereigns’ historical listing patterns. We then test whether a sovereign bond issue’s listing jurisdiction affects its yield at issuance, as the bonding hypothesis would predict. We find little evidence of bonding in today’s sovereign-debt market. Instead, we …

Fish Landings At The World’S Commercial Fishing Ports, Tim Huntington, Fiona Nimmo, Graeme Macfadyen

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

In 2009, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) adopted the Agreement on Port State Measures to Prevent, Deter and Eliminate Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing (PSMA). Countries that ratify the treaty commit to exert greater control at ports over foreign-flagged vessels to detect IUU catch before it is offloaded from vessels, and prevent the ill-gotten catch from entering the world’s markets. The PSMA, when effectively implemented globally, will be a major deterrent to IUU fishing. A major challenge to selecting ports for enhanced controls has been the lack of data on which ports are the world’s largest …

The Economic Impact Of Lifting Sanctions On Iran: How The Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action Will Affect The Economy Of Iran, Ryan Foley

Washington Semester Program

During the second term of the Obama Administration, the United States and the European Union negotiated a deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding their nuclear program. These negotiations encompassed the relaxing of sanctions on the Iranian economy in exchange for concessions on the part of their nuclear program. This thesis investigates how the deal will affect the economy of Iran and the international oil market, two entities which are deeply intertwined. The findings suggest that the opening of Iran’s economy will almost certainly lead to a strengthening of their domestic economy in the short-term, but that the government …

Trade Integration, Income Divergence, And Global Imbalances, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We embed financial frictions and sector-specific minimum investment requirements (MIR) in a two-factor, two-sector, overlapping-generation model and showthat whether trade integration leads to convergence of the income levels among member states depends on their level of financial development. It helps reconcilethe mixed empirical evidence on trade integration and income dynamics in differentgroups of countries from the institutional perspective. In the recent decades, trade globalization has allowed developed countries to specialize towards the high-MIR, high-return production stages and tasks through international fragmentation of production and global sourcing. In our model, the “sectors” can be interpreted broadly as production stages and tasks. …

Institutional Complementarity Across Countries In Bilateral Fdi Flows: Theory And Evidence, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper builds a theory to characterize the comparative advantage of MNEs based in countries of different institutional qualities. It is shown that MNEs headquartered in countries of poorer state institutions will invest more in `informal institutions; and choose to undertake FDI in countries of weaker institutions. At the aggregate, MNEs on average generate more net profits in countries of weaker institutions, the poorer the institutional environment at home. I conduct an extensive test of the theory using bilateral FDI volume for 219 economies in year 2001-2010. The results indicate a statistically significant and robust institutional complementarity effect in bilateral …

Competition And Gains From Trade: A Quantitative Analysis Of China Between 1995 And 2004, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Guiying Laura Wu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a quantitative analysis of gains from trade for China over the period of 1995-2004, which was when China's openness drastically improved. We decompose gains from trade in two ways. First, we disentangle pro-competitive effects from a traditional Ricardian effect. Second, we separate the effect due to tariff reductions from that due to reductions in non-tariff trade costs. Our quantitative analysis shows that the pro-competitive effects account for 25.4% of the total welfare gains from trade, whereas the allocative efficiency alone accounts for 22.3%. We also find that tariff reductions account for about 31.6% of reductions of overall …

The Next Wave Of Globalisation, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

As consumption patterns shift away from OECD countries to the developing world, businesses need to leverage on technology to overcome last-mile delivery obstacles

Remittances Without Borders, Tan Swee Liang, S. N. Venkataramanan, Anil Kishora

Research Collection School Of Economics

A Pan-Asian Mobile Remittance Platform might just be the next big disruption in global remittances. One out of every 28 people lives in a country that they were not born in. As migrants, they are estimated by The World Bank to send home US$636 billion in 2017, with three-quarters remitted to developing countries. These remittances form a significant percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of many of these developing countries. Given their magnitude and contribution to national economies, even a small reduction in remittance cost adds billions to these local economies. Mobile-to-mobile cross border remittances have recently shown that …

Peru: Open For Business, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

South America’s third-largest economy seeks to capitalise on growing global trade

Europe: Ready To Rebound, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Increasing trade, investment, and immigrant integration are keys to Europe’s economic vitality

Fair Trade Or Fake Trade? Specialty Coffee Certifications And Development In Uganda, Eliza Cummings

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

This project examined the relationship between specialty coffee certifications and development. The focus was exploring the local and national implications Fairtrade coffee certifications have in Uganda. Coffee is a critical commodity, accounting for 15 percent of Uganda’s foreign exchange and engaging over one million households in production. Currently, specialty certified coffees including Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance, and 4C make up only four percent of total production. However, under Uganda’s 2013 National Coffee Policy, there is a target to expand specialty production to 24 percent. It is therefore imperative to understand how these specialty certifications affect primary producers participating as well as …

An Interactive Research Study On For-Profit Microfinance And Its Continued Social Impact, Rachael Peroutky

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Though the world is changing rapidly, the problem of poverty and the push for human development have been debated for as long as anyone can remember. Outdated strategies for human development are not sustainable in this new globalized world. The relatively young and growing field of microfinance is hoping to be the answer for sustainable human development and poverty elimination. This study analyzes the impact of microfinance on human development through two major questions. Firstly, to what extent and in what ways can microfinance impact the poor? This research question is multifaceted and will seek to address some of the …