International Economics Commons^™

Projecting Inflation Tail Risks In A Small Open Economy: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Jordan Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study empirically assesses the drivers of risks to the inflation outlook for a small open economy like Singapore. We apply the inflation-at-risk framework of López-Salido and Loria (2020) and incorporate projections from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) as point forecasts of inflation. Our findings show that macro-financial risk factors—shaped by Singapore’s openness, role as a financial hub, and exchange rate–centered monetary policy framework—enter nonlinearly into inflation risk models and exert differentiated effects. Foreign price pressures heighten upside risks, and exchange rate policy has proven effective at mitigating them. Tighter global financial conditions amplify inflation risks through cost-push channels, …

Efficient Bilateral Trade With Interdependent Values: The Use Of Two-Stage Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Efficient, voluntary bilateral trades are generally not implementable in an interdependent values environment with two-sided asymmetric information. To obtain more positive results, we consider two-stage mechanisms in which (i) the outcome (e.g., allocation of the goods) is determined first; (ii) the agents partially learn the state via their own outcome-decision payoffs; and (iii) transfers are finally made. We propose the approximate shoot-the-liar (AS) mechanism and identify Assumption 1, under which “approximately” efficient, voluntary trades are implementable. We further illustrate the permissiveness of the assumption, and characterize it in terms of the nature of interdependence in valuation functions – delineating the …

Brute Force Branding: Variations & Repetitions Of The Almighty Dollar Banknote, Rui-Long Monico

Artl@s Bulletin

Abstract: This paper examines the U.S. dollar as a global brand and mythic icon, revealing how its stable aesthetic asserts dominance and infiltrates daily life. Through visual analysis and global comparison, it shows how banknotes are battlegrounds where art, identity, and geopolitics collide—currency as a weapon of soft power and cultural hegemony. The dollar’s visual inertia—ritualized, repeated, reappropriated—cements its supremacy as a symbolic force, where repetition enforces authority and variation sparks both resistance and conformity. Banknotes emerge as tools of statecraft and vessels of collective memory, as reflected in the author’s bespoke creation accompanying this study.

Résumé: Cet article analyse …

Fiscal Decentralization, Foreign Capital, And Economic Development In Sub-Saharan Africa, Kwadwo D. Frempong

Theses and Dissertations--Public Policy and Administration

Economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa has been shaped by two transformative policy shifts: widespread fiscal decentralization reforms transferring revenue and expenditure authority to subnational governments, and the pursuit of foreign direct investment to supplement domestic capital. Despite the breadth of these reforms, their effectiveness in promoting sustainable economic development remains empirically contested. This dissertation examines three interconnected questions about fiscal governance and capital flows in Sub-Saharan Africa: what determines the extent to which governments decentralize fiscal authority; how county fiscal composition and revenue autonomy shape subnational economic performance; and how foreign direct investment interacts with domestic investment and growth.

The …

Can A Curator Influence Their Nation’S Art Market Value? Adriano Pedrosa, The 60th Venice Biennale, And The Global Repositioning Of Brazilian Art, Maria Joana Ventosa

MA Theses

The 60th Venice Biennale (2024), curated by Brazilian curator Adriano Pedrosa, the first Latin American curator, and the first curator based in the Global South to lead the Venice Biennale, revived long-standing debates concerning visibility and marginalization, who controls canon formation and, in a market where visibility directly affects value, the power of dictating the market. The curator furthered this discussion by curating a show literally titled “Strangers Everywhere”, focused on representations by artists who identify as “othered”, through, for example colonisation and erasure of native cultures, immigration or queerness.  This thesis examines the evolving role of biennials as platforms …

Trade Openness And Economic Growth In Africa: Goods Or Services?, Fe Doukouré Charles

Journal of African Trade

This study examines the impact of trade openness in goods and services on economic growth across Africa, utilizing panel data for all 54 countries from 1980 to 2022. The analysis, conducted at both continental and regional economic community levels, finds that trade openness generally exerts a positive effect on economic performance. However, a significant regional heterogeneity emerges. Notably, a decoupling is observed between goods trade expansion and strong GDP growth in Central and East Africa, a weaker relationship in Northern and Southern Africa, and a similarly decoupled pattern for services trade and GDP growth in most regions, except for a …

Converging, But Not Together: Regional Growth After Eu Enlargement, Armine Kardashyan

CMC Senior Theses

This paper studies whether poorer regions in Central and Eastern Europe have caught up to richer ones since EU enlargement, and whether any observed catch-up reflects absolute convergence or convergence conditional on regional fundamentals. Using annual NUTS-3 data for eleven Central and Eastern European member states from 2000 to 2023, I estimate rolling ten-year convergence regressions within a steady-state framework in which regional GDP per capita depends on investment, human capital, and within-window exposure to EU membership.

The results show strong evidence of conditional convergence during the early and middle phases of enlargement. Regions that begin a window above their …

From Collective Punishment To Collective Action, Samuel N. Johnson-Saeger

CMC Senior Theses

Regime change may be sought in two primary ways, absent a turn to internal or external violence: through nonviolent resistance, from within, and sanctions, from abroad. This paper is about how those two pathways are intertwined. I challenge two different strands of the existing literature. First, I show that Liou et al. (2022)'s finding that sanctions increase the predicted probability of nonviolent resistance movement progress is subject to substantial upward bias from country heterogeneity. Incorporating country fixed effects, I show that sanctions, on average, have no statistically significant effect on resistance outcomes. Second, I challenge Chenoweth and Stephan (2008)'s argument …

Demographics, Macroeconomy, Or Monetary Policy: What Drives Japan’S Short Run Economic Movements Since 1991?, James Ac Raymond Ii

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how Japan’s post-1991 macroeconomy behaves by analyzing quarterly inflation, money growth, and equity returns, with a focus on whether demographic change, macroeconomic indicators, or monetary policy better explains short run movements. Using Newey West regressions, the results show that demographics exert almost no influence at short horizons, while major Bank of Japan policy regimes such as QQE, NIRP, and YCC strongly shape liquidity conditions and dominate both money growth and equity performance. The findings suggest that demographic change matters primarily as a long run force that creates a low-rate environment, while short run dynamics are driven almost …

Macroeconomic Resilience And Sentiment Dynamics In The Global Luxury Fashion Industry, Mehr Gupta

CMC Senior Theses

The global luxury fashion industry is often viewed as a sector where broad economic conditions intersect with individual spending behavior. Yet despite this common assumption, it remains unclear whether macroeconomic fluctuations meaningfully shape luxury firms’ financial performance. This thesis examines the relationship between four key macroeconomic indicators - consumer sentiment, disposable income, unemployment, and exchange rates - and firm-level quarterly revenue for twelve publicly listed luxury companies from the early 2000s through 2024. Firm financial data from S&P Capital IQ are matched with macroeconomic measures from the Federal Reserve (FRED), and the analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects framework with firm …

Keeping America Ahead: The Global Chip Conundrum, Ethan Chen

CMC Senior Theses

Semiconductors underpin nearly every aspect of modern economic, military, and technological power. Yet while the United States pioneered chip innovation and design, it now heavily depends on foreign manufacturing, particularly Taiwan and the Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing Company who produce more than 90% of the world’s leading edge chips. This thesis investigates how the U.S. lost its fabrication leadership, what risks its current dependence creates, and what strategies can most effectively restore domestic capacity and resilience in both the short term and long term. By going through historical analysis of industrial development, recent policy evaluation such as export controls and the …

An Examination Of Remittance Inflow Variation In Net-Emigration Countries, Andrew Rizko

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the structural and institutional determinants of remittance inflows in a panel of 40 net-emigration countries from 2000 to 2024. By restricting the sample to countries with negative average net migration, the analysis holds migration pressure constant and isolates the role of domestic conditions in explaining cross-country variation in remittance dependence. Using fixed effects and correlated random effects (Mundlak) estimators, I find that labor force participation is the most robust within-country determinant: a one percentage point increase is associated with approximately a 2.3 percent decline in remittance inflows, consistent with remittances functioning as a structural need in contexts …

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

The Low Human Rights Advantage And The Failure Of Globalization: The Challenge Of China Inc., Shaomin Li

Management Faculty Publications

Purpose

We develop a framework of the low human rights advantage – labor repression, state discretionary expropriation and total control – that reduces factor costs and enables coordinated resource mobilization. These mechanisms generate economic advantage only when combined with access to global markets, which provide demand, capital and technology. By leveraging this low human rights advantage, the Chinese state has transformed China into a giant corporation that combines the agility of a firm with the resources of a nation, thereby reshaping global competition. Economic integration without corresponding political integration is a major contributor to the failure of the current wave …

From Sentiment And Risk To Trade: A Country-Level Study On Geopolitical Trade Effects, Seung Heo

Publications and Research

Can geopolitical risk reshape international trade? I construct directed, monthly measures of bilateral geopolitical risk and its associated sentiment from approximately 5.1 million news articles in the GDELT Event Database, and estimate their effect on trade among eight Asia-Pacific economies at the HS2 product level over 2015--2025, using Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood gravity local projections with high-dimensional fixed effects. Pooled across countries, rising risk produces an immediate expansion of trade led by verbal threats and by news tone orthogonal to event content, rather than by material acts, indicating that how a conflict is reported can move trade before the conflict materializes. A …

Beyond Interests And Ideas: Institutions And The Persistence Of Trade Protectionism In Brazil, Samo Sérgio Gonçalves Tosatti

West Chester University Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Final Projects

Despite decades of economic reforms and growing international integration since the 1990s, Brazil has remained one of the most protectionist large economies in the global trading system. Tariff levels remain relatively high, the country maintains a limited network of trade agreements, and non-tariff barriers play a significant role in shaping market access. Existing explanations for this persistence have focused primarily on the influence of organized interests, particularly import-competing industries, and the enduring influence of developmentalist ideas rooted in Brazil’s import-substitution industrialization (ISI) legacy.

This dissertation argues that these explanations are incomplete without accounting for a third explanatory dimension: institutions. It …

The Impact Of Student Achievement On Economic Growth: A Pisa-Based Analysis Of Gdp Per Capita, Emma Rose Nasr

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This study investigates the extent to which international student achievement, measured through PISA assessments in mathematics, reading, and science, explains cross-country differences in economic development. Using an unbalanced panel data set combining PISA results from 2015, 2018, and 2022 with macroeconomic indicators from the World Development Indicators, I estimate multiple regression models, including pooled OLS, country and time fixed effects, and subsample analyses for developed and developing countries. Results from the pooled model indicate strong positive associations between PISA scores and GDP per capita, consistent with human capital theory. However, these relationships diminish under fixed effects specifications, suggesting that cross-country …

Bargaining Inefficiency Due To Mispricing Under Incomplete Information : Evidence From The Bilateral Oligopolistic Containership Time Charter Market, Jaeung Cha

World Maritime University Ph.D. Dissertations

A well-established body of bargaining studies theoretically demonstrates that inherent limitations in observing the counterplayer’s private information give rise to an incomplete information setting in bargaining, leading to efficiency losses associated with mispricing, costly delays, and even bargaining failures. As the shipping market, a business-to-business market in which products are generally heterogeneous and the number of both sellers and buyers is limited by high entry/exit barriers, relies on a bargaining mechanism to determine tailored transaction prices, market pricing is prone to inefficiencies associated with incomplete information. However, the relevant empirical evidence remains underexplored in both the shipping finance and bargaining …

The Evolving Beijing Consensus: Chinese Communist Party Political Control And Economic Trade Offs, Ian Murphy

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

China’s rapid economic rise and unique development trajectory have long been the subject of scholarly debate, often framed through the concept of the “Beijing Consensus” as an alternative to the Washington Consensus. While initial conceptualizations highlight innovation, sustainability, and national sovereignty, later analyses highlighted elements like state capitalism and authoritarianism, particularly in the wake of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This paper argues that the Beijing Consensus is undergoing a significant evolution under Chairman Xi Jinping, increasingly prioritizing the Chinese Communist Party’s political security, regime stability, and ideological control at the expense of economic growth. This marks a notable departure …

Strategic Mineral Competition And Democratic Governance In Africa, Chick Edmund

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

African countries have become focal points of a new round of competition among global powers to access key minerals required for an emerging green transition, as well as for advanced digital infrastructure and modern weaponry. In addition to their relatively high level of reserves of such minerals, which include cobalt, lithium, graphite and several types of rare earths, Africa is also home to many of the world’s most important deposits. These mineral riches present, however, a contradictory situation: on one hand, they represent the critical resources needed to achieve a low-carbon future; but on the other hand, these same resources …