Income Distribution Commons^™

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Snap And The School Meal Programs, Judith Bartfeld

University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series

The Great Recession and its immediate aftermath have brought increasing attention both to food insecurity among children and to the associated food safety net. After a decade of largely stable food insecurity rates, the share of children living in food insecure households jumped by one-third between 2007 and 2008, and has remained stubbornly high since then. As of 2012, 21.6% of all children lived in food insecure households (Coleman-Jensen et al. 2013). The scope and reach of the food safety net for children has likewise grown – a response to rising need, efforts to reduce administrative and logistical barriers to …

Invisible & Voiceless: Latinos In Council Bluffs Iowa, María Teresa Gastón, Lourdes Gouveia, Christian Espinosa, Clare Maakestad, Christopher C. Blue

Latino/Latin American Studies Reports

While Latino immigrant workers in Council Bluffs, Iowa have contributed significantly to the Iowa and Nebraska economies, they remain virtually invisible and lack a voice in the city’s key venues and institutions – this according to a new report being released by the University of Nebraska at Omaha (UNO) Office of Latino/Latin American Studies (OLLAS) and funded in part by the Iowa West Foundation.

The report, titled “Invisible & Voiceless” combines data from the 2010 Census with 26 interviews with members of Council Bluffs’ civic, government, education, religious, non-profit and business communities as well as Latino voices gathered at interviews …

Trends In Poverty Rates Among Latinos In New York City And The United States, 1990 - 2011, Justine Calcagno

Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies

Introduction: This study examines demographic and socioeconomic factors regarding Latinos in New York City and the United States between 1990 and 2011 – particularly poverty rates.

Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates.

Results: The analyzed data indicate that the poverty rate among the national population over the last two decades increased. However, there were nuanced and complex trends within both New York City …

Trends In Median Household Income Among New York City Latinos In Comparative Perspective, 1990 - 2011, Laird W. Bergad

Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies

Introduction: This report examines trends in median household incomes among New York City’s Latino population between 1990 and 2011, and considers these in comparative perspective with the City’s other major race/ethnic groups as well as with Latinos across the United States.

Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates.

Results: Between 1990 and 2011 median household incomes among the City’s entire population fell by -4.7%. …

Livelihood Security Among Refugees In Uganda: Opportunities, Obstacles, And Physical Security Implications, Karen J. Norris

Student Publications

This research project was designed to investigate the challenges refugees face in securing a livelihood, to understand the extent to which the United Nations, the government of Uganda, and various aid groups are able to assist refugees in achieving self-reliance, and the capacity that refugees have to empower themselves. It also endeavors to expose any disparities between nationality groups, and the impact of these differences. Furthermore, this project aims to explore the impact of refugee livelihood security on regional physical security and community stability.

The study found that despite international and national policies, and efforts by both non-governmental organizations and …

The End Of Cash, The Income Tax, And The Next 100 Years, Gregg D. Polsky, Jeffery H. Kahn

Scholarly Works

The income tax is technologically very similar to the way it was in its early years, and technological developments have been at the margins of the income tax and have not affected its core elements. Still, technological improvements have made third-party reporting and withholding more efficient, which has allowed these mechanisms to become more pervasively used. Technology has also made it easier for taxpayers to substantiate their activities. These changes have facilitated the evolution of the incometax from its original class tax to the mass tax it is today.

While further technological advances might improve the federal income tax, it …

The Effect Of Snap On Poverty, Laura Tiehen, Dean Jolliffe, Timothy Smeeding

University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series

On signing the Food Stamp Act of 1964, President Johnson noted that “as a permanent program, the food stamp plan will be one of our most valuable weapons for the war on poverty” (Johnson, 1964). From a humble beginning of 2.9 million recipients per month and $228 million in benefits in 1969 (earliest national figures), the program has grown to serve 47 million persons with benefits of over $74.6 Billion in 2012 (USDA, 2013a). In the late 60’s and early 70’s, when the average monthly benefit was under $20 per month per month, we did not record the effects of …

Why Are So Many Americans On Food Stamps? The Role Of The Economy, Policy, And Demographics, James P. Ziliak

University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series

1 in 7 Americans received assistance from SNAP in FY2012, which is a rate 141 percent higher than in FY2000, but only 59 percent higher than in FY1980. In this chapter I describe the socioeconomic and policy climate in recent decades that had bearing on SNAP participation, along with a formal empirical analysis of those determinants and detailed simulations of the relative contributions of the economy, policy, and demographics to changes in SNAP participation over time. The results suggest that SNAP is operating effectively as an automatic fiscal stabilizer—nearly 50 percent of the increase in participation from 2007-2011 is due …

Latinas In New York City: A Comparison Of Education And Income, 1990 – 2010, Justine Calcagno

Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies

Introduction: This study examines demographic and socioeconomic factors regarding Latinos in New York City between 1990 and 2010 – particularly education and income rates among Hispanic females.

Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates.

Results: From 1990 to 2010 Latinas’ educational attainment and income levels both rose. Disparities between Latinas and Latinos in yearly personal income have persisted. From 1990 to 2010, women earned …

Geographic Decomposition Of Inequality In Health And Wealth: Evidence From Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Applying the small-area estimation methods to Cambodia data, we decompose the total inequality in wealth (consumption) and health (child undernutrition) indicators into within-location and between-location components. Because the knowledge of the pattern of spatial disparity in poverty and undernutrition is important for the geographic targeting of resources, we conduct a geographic decomposition of the variance of the Foster-Greere-Thorbecke index in addition to the standard decomposition exercise based on the generalized entropy measures. We find that a sizable proportion of wealth inequality is due to between-location inequality, whereas health inequality is mainly due to within-location inequality.

Geographic Decomposition Of Inequality In Health And Wealth: Evidence From Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

The small-area estimation developed by Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (2002, 2003), in which a census and a survey are combined to produce the estimates of welfare measures for small geographic areas, has become a standard tool for poverty analysis in developing countries. The small-area estimates are typically plotted on a map, which are commonly called a poverty map. Poverty maps proved useful for policy analysis and formulation, and have become increasingly popular among policy-makers and researchers. In Cambodia, poverty maps have been used by various international organizations, ministries and non-governmental organizations for analyzing the poverty situations for their operation areas, …

The Influence Of Parental Aspirations, Attitudes, And Engagement On Children's Very Low Food Security, Elizabeth T. Powers

University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series

Survey of Income and Program Participation data are used to investigate the relationship between parenting and children’s very low food security. Parenting is characterized along five domains (emotional outlook, support, education desires, activities with the child excluding meals, and television viewing rules). Food security definitions are obtained from questions in a special SIPP module that are based on the USDA’s core food security module. Graphical evidence indicates that parenting patterns differ distinctly for households experiencing various levels of food insecurity. Descriptive regression evidence suggests that some of the parenting attributes are significantly associated with children’s food insecurity, even controlling for …

Risk And Protective Factors Associated With Prevalence Of Vlfs In Children Among Children Of Foreign-Born Mothers, John Cook

University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series

This research examined VLFS in children among households with foreign-born (FB) mothers compared to US-born mothers through three research questions: Is mother’s foreign-born status (FBS) associated with VLFS in children, and can association be explained by mothers’ socio-demographic characteristics? Are FB mothers more or less likely to receive nutrition or non-nutrition assistance benefits, or work for pay than US-born mothers? Do mothers’ FBS, or protective/risk factors associated with FBS, modify associations of negative economic shocks and hardships with VLFS in children? Data are on approximately 44,000 mother-child (ages<48 Mos.) dyads collected from household surveys administered under a "sentinel surveillance" system over 1998-2012 at teaching hospitals and clinics in seven US cities. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models tested study hypotheses. Mothers' FBS is strongly positively associated with VLFS in children after controlling for available risk and protective factors. FB mothers are less likely to receive SNAP and non-nutrition assistance (TANF, LIHEAP or housing subsidies), but more likely to receive WIC and to be employed than US-born mothers. FB mothers are no more likely to report negative reasons for not receiving SNAP or TANF, or losing jobs or decreasing work hours than US-born, and reported "immigration concerns" rarely. No need/chose not to participate are most frequently reported reasons for not receiving SNAP and TANF; pregnancy/maternity leave and "market conditions" for lost jobs and decreased work hours. Economic shocks and hardships are positively associated with VLFS in children, but Mothers' FBS does not interact with shocks and hardships to modify those associations.

Food Insecurity During Childhood: Understanding Persistence And Change Using Linked Current Population Survey Data, Sheela Kennedy, Catherine A. Fitch, John Robert Warren, Julia A. Rivera Drew

University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series

Our paper examines the prevalence and determinants of children’s transitions into and out of food insecurity since 2001. We use longitudinally linked data from the Food Security Supplements to the Current Population Surveys to estimate one-year transition probabilities of entry and exit from food insecurity. Our results indicate that child hunger is typically short-lived, but children experiencing very low food security frequently experience multiple consecutive years of food insecurity. We demonstrate large demographic and socioeconomic differences in rates of entry into very low food security and persistence in children's food insecurity. Income and employment shocks are important predictors of child …