Finance Commons^™

Evaluating The Role Of Bank Specific, Macroeconomic, And Institutional Factors In Determining Banking Sector Performance: Evidence From South Asian Economies, Samia Nasreen, Mehwish Gulzar, Xuan-Hoa Nghiem, Saira Arsh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study investigates the bank-specific, macroeconomic, and institutional factors affecting the performance of the banking sector specifically profitability and stability in South Asian countries from 2011 to 2020. Using a two-step system GMM estimation method on a balanced panel dataset, the study identifies key determinants, including bank size, operating expenses, economic growth, exchange rates, and economic freedom. Institutional factors, particularly corruption, significantly influence banking sector profitability and stability. The findings offer several policy recommendations to enhance banking sector performance in the region.

The Impact Of Central Bank Digital Currencies News On Bank Stability: Evidence From Asean-5 Countries, Firman Hidayat, Raditya Sukmana, Masrizal Masrizal, Rahmat Heru Setianto

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study constructs an index reflecting Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) news coverage and evaluates its impact on bank stability. The CBDC Attention Index (CBDCAI) is formulated based on more than 533 Reuters Digital News Report articles from 2019 to 2023. Employing the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach with data from 92 banks across ASEAN-5 nations, and implementing quantile regression for robustness checks, the findings demonstrate a significant relationship between the CBDCAI and bank stability, alongside variables such as bank size and capitalization. These results offer valuable guidance for central banks, especially within the ASEAN-5 region, as they …

On The Legal-Theoretical Foundations Of Property Taxation Under State Ownership Of Land, Tianke Ban, Yilin Hou, Ping Zhang

Center for Policy Research

The general public and even some scholars challenge the legitimacy of levying the property tax under conditions where land is state-owned and multi-year land-use fees have already been collected at the time of house sales. This challenge points to the legal- theoretical foundations of property taxation: the core issue is whether the rights and economic utility of China's construction land-use-rights (CLUR) are sufficient to be treated as the object of property tax levy. China's Civil Law stipulates that CLUR holders have the rights to possess, use, and profit from the land during their use period, as well as the right …

Agency Mbs As Safe Assets, Zhiguo He, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Measured as yield spreads against Treasury securities and AAA corporate bonds, the convenience premium of newly issued agency MBS averages more than half of the long-term Treasury convenience premium. The agency MBS convenience premium and issuance amount vary negatively with mortgage rate, consistent with a prepayment-driven channel. Placing agencies into conservatorship in 2008 and introducing liquidity regulations in 2013 significantly affected MBS convenience premium, consistent with government guarantee and regulatory treatment channels. Analyses of dispersion of dealers’ prepayment forecasts, seasoned MBS, and investors’ MBS holdings deliver further economic implications for agency MBS as safe assets.

Decentralization And Trust: Institutional Design For Effective Governance, Michael A. Nelson

University Research

This study examines the relationship between decentralization and public trust in the civil service using a multidimensional framework that extends beyond conventional fiscal measures. Drawing on indicators of regional and local government autonomy across 47 countries from 1995 to 2018, the analysis yields four findings. Trust is higher when local governments, rather than regional authorities, lead service delivery; greater subnational financial self-reliance is positively associated with trust; oversight by higher tiers enhances accountability and citizen perceptions; and shared-rule arrangements that involve regional governments in national decision-making further bolster trust. Overall, the findings highlight the limits of fiscal decentralization alone and …

The Economics Of Accountability: Learning From German Holocaust Reparations, Grace I. Gates

Scripps Senior Theses

Drawing on microdata from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe, this study compares European Holocaust survivors who received reparations with similar Europeans who did not. It finds that, decades on, recipients are not systematically better or worse off on core outcomes like life satisfaction, savings, and debt. This is consistent with the argument that reparations restore parity rather than create new advantages. Where differences emerge, they point to stabilization in more vulnerable settings (e.g., lower likelihood of high debt in parts of Eastern Europe). The main takeaway from effective reparations is applicable to the United States debate: …

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies volatility modeling in the context of risk parity portfolio construction. I compare three risk parity portfolios that differ only in their underlying volatility model: a historical covariance baseline, a Bayesian stochastic volatility model, and a GRU–GARCH hybrid neural network. Using daily returns on Kenneth French’s five industry portfolios from January 2016 through December 2025, I construct monthly rebalanced portfolios under each model, with the SV and GRU forecasts embedded in hybrid covariance matrices that combine forecasted volatilities with rolling historical correlations. The results document a divergence between forecast accuracy and portfolio performance: the SV model is the …

Rank Rebalancing In Commodity And Foreign Exchange Markets, Prateek D. Vyas

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis empirically tests the rank-rebalancing mechanism of Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT) across commodity futures, foreign exchange futures, and equity ETFs. The Reverse Price-Weighted strategy (RPW) assigns, to each asset, the market weight of the asset at the opposite price rank, and generates an annualized excess return of 2.90% over the price-weighted (MKT) commodity benchmark, during the period of November 1977 to October 2025 (HAC t = 2.058, p = 0.040). The differential Sharpe ratio (dSharpe) of 0.245 is confirmed by a stationary block bootstrap, with a 𝑝-value of 0.015, and factor regressions controlling for carry, momentum, and value yield …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

The Lipstick Effect Across Economic Crises: An Empirical Study Of Cosmetics And Luxury Spending From 2004 – 2023, Richard M. Sweeney Iii

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines whether consumers shift toward lower-cost beauty products during periods of economic uncertainty and whether this behavior moves with financial market volatility. Using household-level microdata and aggregate monthly expenditure data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Surveys (2004–2023), the study evaluates how cosmetics spending changes relative to jewelry across two major economic crises: the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Across both datasets, cosmetics consistently become a larger share of discretionary spending when economic conditions deteriorate, supporting the presence of a lipstick-effect pattern. At the macro level, cosmetics spending is generally inversely related to market …

The Tcja And Shareholder Payouts, Carson T. Bloom

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provided corporations an estimated $233 billion in tax savings, yet relatively little is known about how firms allocated this cash windfall. This study examines whether growth and mature firms differed in whether they used these tax savings to distribute dividends and repurchase shares. Using panel data on publicly traded North American firms from 2016–2019, I classify firms as either growth or mature based on their cash-flow patterns and estimate the effects of the TCJA on their behavior using a difference-in-differences design.

The results indicate that mature firms increased shareholder payouts significantly more …

From Static Λ To Moving Penalties: Dynamic Regularization In Mean-Variance Portfolio Choice, Ariel Santiago

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis evaluates whether dynamically tuned weight penalties can improve high-dimensional mean-variance portfolio choice. Classical Markowitz portfolios perform poorly when the number of assets is large relative to the data, because small estimation errors in means and covariances can generate extreme, fragile allocations. A common remedy is to regularize the weights using L1 (lasso), L2 (ridge), or elastic-net penalties, but these are typically chosen once and held fixed. Using monthly excess returns on the 48 Fama-French industry portfolios from January 2010 to June 2025, this thesis compares penalized mean-variance and minimum-variance strategies under long-only and long-short constraints, with and without …

Esg And Misvaluation In U.S. Equity Markets, Rohaan Bhojwani

CMC Senior Theses

Existing research has produced conflicting conclusions on whether environmental, social, and governance (ESG) characteristics are efficiently priced in equity markets. While some studies argue that ESG performance improves firm value through lower risk and stronger fundamentals, others suggest that investor demand has inflated valuations in the past beyond intrinsic worth. This thesis examines whether ESG-driven valuation gaps represent justified pricing through firm fundamentals or systematic mispricing using Bartram and Grinblatt’s Agnostic Fundamental Analysis Framework (2018).

For this paper, I analyze the top 1000 U.S public firms by market value. I regress the market value on 19 accounting fundamentals for these …

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

Esg Risk And Agricultural Commodity Integration, Alper Gormus, Yoav Wachsman, Elif Gormus

Finance and Economics

This study investigates how major agricultural commodities interact with diversified U.S. equity funds, sorted by their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risk exposure. Using daily Morningstar data on 880 U.S. equity mutual funds, we construct portfolios representing high- and low-ESG-risk equities and examine their linkages with prices for eight agricultural commodities. Applying Fourier-augmented Toda–Yamamoto VAR and LM-GARCH models that accommodate both abrupt and gradual structural breaks, we document clear heterogeneity across ESG risk segments. Low-ESG-risk portfolios exhibit minimal price and volatility spillovers from agricultural commodities, whereas high-ESG-risk portfolios display strong and often bidirectional transmissions—particularly for coffee, corn, cotton, livestock, and …

Essays In Housing And Consumer Finance, Spencer Stone

Theses and Dissertations--Finance and Quantitative Methods

In my first chapter, I show how consumer left-digit bias affects borrowing costs in the US residential mortgage market. I find that the distribution of mortgage rates bunch at .99-ending rates just below left-digit changing thresholds, and that this bunching is greater in the distribution of rates selected by borrowers than those simply offered by lenders. Comparing observably similar borrowers within the same 1-bp interest rate band, selecting similar mortgage products, in the same census tract and origination month, I show that borrowers receiving .99-ending rates pay significantly more fees than borrowers receiving the nearest whole-number rate just above them, …

Essays On Financial Econometrics And Macro-Financial Forecasting, Zhendong A. Li

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The first chapter proposes an innovative supervised learning technique for dimension reduction and forecasting financial and macroeconomic time series in the presence of weak factors that can undermine the effectiveness of traditional Principal Component Analysis (PCA). This approach employs double or multiple supervised learning procedures and is termed ``Supervised Scaled Principal Component Analysis'' (SsPCA). Initially, each predictor is scaled using its predictive slope on the target forecast variable, giving more weight to those with stronger predictive abilities and less to those with weaker ones. Subsequently, utilizing the scaled predictors, we intelligently identify the most informative subset for prediction. This involves …

Entropic Foundation Of Finance And Physics: Securities Price Dynamics And Quantum Theory, Mohammad Abedi

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

In many scientific and financial contexts, we must reason and make predictions under conditions of incomplete information. This dissertation develops Entropic Dynamics (ED) as a unified framework for deriving dynamical laws directly from principles of inference. Within this approach, probability distributions represent states of knowledge, and their evolution is determined through entropy maximization subject to relevant constraints. This leads to a novel concept of entropic time and a formulation of dynamics as an inferential process. In this talk, I will present how ED provides a common foundation across multiple domains. In physics, quantum dynamics for particles and scalar fields in …

Assessing Ethereum’S Diversification Role With Bitcoin And Major Equity Index – A Bayesian Mixture Copula Approach, Jackie Li, Jacie Jia Liu

Research Collection School Of Economics

With the introduction of spot Ethereum ETFs, Ethereum plays an increasingly important role in the cryptocurrency market. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian modelling framework incorporating a mixture copula for co-modelling Ethereum returns with Bitcoin or FTSE 100 returns. The mixture copula is designed as a combination of the Clayton copula and its three rotations, Frank, and Gaussian copulas. It provides substantial flexibility for handling a variety of dependency structures. The Bayesian approach offers the advantage of jointly estimating both the margins and copulas and simulating future returns in a coherent procedure. Using 10 different risk or risk-return measures, …