Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real-Time Detectors,
2015
Singapore Management University
Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real-Time Detectors, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This article provides the limit theory of real-time dating algorithms for bubble detection that were suggested in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (PWY; International Economic Review 52 [2011], 201-26) and in a companion paper by the present authors (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2015; PSY; International Economic Review 56 [2015a], 1099-1134. Bubbles are modeled using mildly explosive bubble episodes that are embedded within longer periods where the data evolve as a stochastic trend, thereby capturing normal market behavior as well as exuberance and collapse. Both the PWY and PSY estimates rely on recursive right-tailed unit root tests (each with a different recursive …
Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500,
2015
Singapore Management University
Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Recent work on econometric detection mechanisms has shown the effectiveness of recursive procedures in identifying and dating financial bubbles in real time. These procedures are useful as warning alerts in surveillance strategies conducted by central banks and fiscal regulators with real-time data. Use of these methods over long historical periods presents a more serious econometric challenge due to the complexity of the nonlinear structure and break mechanisms that are inherent in multiple-bubble phenomena within the same sample period. To meet this challenge, this article develops a new recursive flexible window method that is better suited for practical implementation with long …
A Bayesian Chi-Squared Test For Hypothesis Testing,
2015
Renmin University of China
A Bayesian Chi-Squared Test For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiaobin Liu, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new Bayesian test statistic is proposed to test a point null hypothesis based on a quadratic loss. The proposed test statistic may be regarded as the Bayesian version of the Lagrange multiplier test. Its asymptotic distribution is obtained based on a set of regular conditions and follows a chi-squared distribution when the null hypothesis is correct. The new statistic has several important advantages that make it appealing in practical applications. First, it is well-defined under improper prior distributions. Second, it avoids Jeffrey-Lindley's paradox. Third, it always takes a non-negative value and is relatively easy to compute, even for models …
Supplement To Two Papers On Multiple Bubbles [Online Supplementary Materials],
2015
Singapore Management University
Supplement To Two Papers On Multiple Bubbles [Online Supplementary Materials], Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper provides a supplement to two companion papers by the authors: “Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S&P 500” (PSY1 hereafter); and “Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory of Real Time Detectors” (PSY2 hereafter). Section 1 supplements the empirical application of PSY1 by examining the robustness of the bubble identification and dating results to the choice of the minimum window size parameter used in the rolling regression framework of PSY. Section 2 provides proofs of supplementary lemmas that facilitate analysis of the multiple bubble case, derives the limit behaviour of the recursive unit …
The Effect Of New York City Sports Outcomes On The Stock Market,
2015
University of Maryland - College Park
The Effect Of New York City Sports Outcomes On The Stock Market, Nir Levy
Undergraduate Economic Review
This thesis investigates whether sports outcomes for New York City based teams affect the daily returns, volatility or trading volume of major stock indexes in the United States. I research whether events that affect local mood in a major financial center can influence national stock indexes by swaying the sentiment of workers in the financial sector. By performing an event study I found evidence that returns are abnormally high following championships won by New York City professional sports teams. Returns are abnormally low and volume is abnormally high following elimination from a championship round.
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2015,
2015
University of Rhode Island
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2015, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Poverty Decomposition By Regression: An Application To Tanzania,
2015
Singapore Management University
Poverty Decomposition By Regression: An Application To Tanzania, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a poverty decomposition method that is based on a consumption regression model. Because this method uses an integral of the partial derivatives of a poverty measure with respect to time, the resulting poverty decomposition satisfies time-reversion consistency and sub-period additivity. Unlike the existing poverty decomposition methods, it allows us to ascribe the observed change in poverty to various covariates of interest collected at a disaggregate level. This method is applied to two datasets from Tanzania to assess, among others, the short- and long-term impacts of infrastructure and market access on poverty.
Bias-Correction For Weibull Common Shape Estimation,
2015
Xiamen University
Bias-Correction For Weibull Common Shape Estimation, Yan Shen, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
A general method for correcting the bias of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the common shape parameter of Weibull populations, allowing a general right censorship, is proposed in this paper. Extensive simulation results show that the new method is very effective in correcting the bias of the MLE, regardless of censoring mechanism, sample size, censoring proportion and number of populations involved. The method can be extended to more complicated Weibull models.
Model Selection In The Presence Of Incidental Parameters,
2015
Singapore Management University
Model Selection In The Presence Of Incidental Parameters, Yeonseok Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers model selection in panels where incidental parameters are present. Primary interest centers on selecting a model that best approximates the underlying structure involving parameters that are common within the panel. It is well known that conventional model selection procedures are often inconsistent in panel models and this can be so even without nuisance parameters. Modifications are then needed to achieve consistency. New model selection information criteria are developed here that use either the Kullback-Leibler information criterion based on the profile likelihood or the Bayes factor based on the integrated likelihood with a bias-reducing prior. These model selection …
Measure Of Location-Based Estimators In Simple Linear Regression,
2015
Singapore Management University
Measure Of Location-Based Estimators In Simple Linear Regression, Xijia Liu, Daniel P. A. Preve
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we consider certain measure of location-based estimators (MLBEs) for the slope parameter in a linear regression model with a single stochastic regressor. The median-unbiased MLBEs are interesting as they can be robust to heavy-tailed samples and, hence, preferable to the ordinary least squares estimator (LSE). Two different cases are considered as we investigate the statistical properties of the MLBEs. In the first case, the regressor and error are assumed to follow a symmetric stable distribution. In the second, other types of regressions, with potentially contaminated errors, are considered. For both cases the consistency and exact finite-sample distributions …
Tug-Of-War In The Laboratory,
2015
Chapman University
Tug-Of-War In The Laboratory, Cary Deck, Roman M. Sheremeta
ESI Working Papers
Tug-of-war is a multi-battle contest often used to describe extended interactions in economics, management, political science, and other disciplines. While there has been some theoretical work, there is scant empirical evidence regarding behavior in a tug-of-war game. To the best of our knowledge, this paper provides the first experimental study of the tug-of-war. The results show notable deviations of behavior from theory. In the first battle of the tug-of-war, subjects exert fewer resources, while in the follow-up battles, they exert more resources than predicted. Also, contrary to the theoretical prediction, resource expenditures tend to increase in the duration of the …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- September 2015,
2015
University of Rhode Island
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- September 2015, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Testing For Spatial Lag And Spatial Error Dependence In A Fixed Effects Panel Data Model Using Double Length Artificial Regressions,
2015
Syracuse University
Testing For Spatial Lag And Spatial Error Dependence In A Fixed Effects Panel Data Model Using Double Length Artificial Regressions, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu
Center for Policy Research
This paper revisits the joint and conditional Lagrange Multiplier tests derived by Debarsy and Ertur (2010) for a fixed effects spatial lag regression model with spatial auto-regressive error, and derives these tests using artificial Double Length Regressions (DLR). These DLR tests and their corresponding LM tests are compared using an empirical example and a Monte Carlo simulation.
Semiparametric Estimation Of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects,
2015
Singapore Management University
Semiparametric Estimation Of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we study a partially linear dynamic panel data model with fixed effects, where either exogenous or endogenous variables or both enter the linear part, and the lagged dependent variable together with some other exogenous variables enter the nonparametric part. Two types of estimation methods are proposed for the first-differenced model. One is composed of a semiparametric GMM estimator for the finite dimensional parameter and a local polynomial estimator for the infinite dimensional parameter m based on the empirical solutions to Fredholm integral equations of the second kind, and the other is a sieve IV estimate of the …
Jackknife Model Averaging For Quantile Regressions,
2015
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Jackknife Model Averaging For Quantile Regressions, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we consider model averaging for quantile regressions (QR) when all models under investigation are potentially misspecified and the number of parameters is diverging with the sample size. To allow for the dependence between the error terms and regressors in the QR models, we propose a jackknife model averaging (JMA) estimator which selects the weights by minimizing a leave-one-out cross-validation criterion function and demonstrate its asymptotic optimality in terms of minimizing the out-of-sample final prediction error. We conduct simulations to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of our estimator and compare it with other model selection and averaging methods. We …
Bias In The Estimation Of Mean Reversion In Continuous-Time Levy Processes,
2015
Purdue University
Bias In The Estimation Of Mean Reversion In Continuous-Time Levy Processes, Yong Bao, Aman Ullah, Yun Wang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops the approximate bias of the ordinary least squares estimator of the mean reversion parameter in continuous-time Levy processes. Several cases are considered, depending on whether the long-run mean is known or unknown and whether the initial condition is fixed or random. The approximate bias is used to construct a bias corrected estimator. The performance of the approximate bias and the bias corrected estimator is examined using simulated data.
How Does The Stock Market Value The Renewable Energy Sector: A Public Announcement Analysis And Test Of The Efficient Market Hypothesis,
2015
Colby College
How Does The Stock Market Value The Renewable Energy Sector: A Public Announcement Analysis And Test Of The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Jack Crampton
Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics at Colby
This study analyzes the market reaction to public announcements in the stock market. The efficient market hypothesis is put to test and similar studies are reexamined in the context of the renewable energy sector. Through fixed effects models, we can assess the validity to the efficient market hypothesis and assess how the market values the clean energy sector.
The Zen Of Charity Giving In China: An Understanding Of The Chinese Philanthropic Sector And Recommendations On Moving Towards Sustainability,
2015
SIT Graduate Institute
The Zen Of Charity Giving In China: An Understanding Of The Chinese Philanthropic Sector And Recommendations On Moving Towards Sustainability, Li Zheng
Capstone Collection
China has shifted from a centrally planned to a market based economy in 1978. Since then, the country has experienced rapid economic growth and social development. With a more liberal economic environment, the voice of civil society becomes stronger, which incentives the emergence of philanthropy and charitable giving. As a result, the government has begun to encourage private donation and development of foundations, while watching carefully and constraining its activities. By analyzing both qualitative and quantitative data, this paper explores and evaluates the effectiveness of this emerging sector. The paper further advocates for improving current charity law and developing a …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- August 2015,
2015
University of Rhode Island
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- August 2015, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
An Analysis Of Airline Quality Rating Components Using Bayesian Methods,
2015
Purdue University - Main Campus
An Analysis Of Airline Quality Rating Components Using Bayesian Methods, John H. Mott, Branden K. Avery
International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace
The Airline Quality Rating, a unique metric that is of interval scale and is comparable across carriers and time periods, is a quantitative evaluation of the quality of U.S. domestic air carriers based on data that is collected and published by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. One may gain insight into the relationship of the AQR metric to the carriers to which it is applied by grouping those carriers and examining the effects of the resulting groupings on the four individual factors that comprise the AQR. This study used Bayesian hierarchical modeling techniques to examine the differences between three …
