Econometrics Commons^™

Geospatial Modeling Of Vietnamese Fdi, Cuong Nguyen Tien

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis sets a goal to analyze and project geographically disaggregated measures of FDI using aggregate data. We regress the country level FDI with aggregate, fine geospatial data on GDP, urban extent, and risk. By disaggregating the model, we will predict the FDI flow in every 1000 square kilometer area.

Bullying And Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence From The National Longitudinal Survey Of Youth, 1997, Jessica Lum

Theses and Dissertations

Data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 (NLSY97) is used to study the effect of bullying on human capital accumulation. Findings suggest that adolescent bullying has a significant and negative impact on the highest educational level attained, as well as income earned as an adult.

Dynamic Behavior And Player Types In Majoritarian Multi-Battle Contests, Alan Gelder, Dan Kovenock

ESI Working Papers

In a dynamic contest where it is costly to compete, a player who is behind must decide whether to surrender or to keep fighting in the face of bleak odds. We experimentally examine the game theoretic prediction of last stand behavior in a multi-battle contest with a winning prize and losing penalty, as well as the contrasting prediction of surrendering in the corresponding contest with no penalty. We find varied evidence in support of these hypotheses in the aggregated data, but more conclusive evidence when scrutinizing individual player behavior. Players’ realized strategies tend to conform to one of several “types”. …

Mean-Dispersion Preferences With A Specific Dispersion Function, Mark Schneider, Manuel Nunez

ESI Working Papers

A popular approach to modeling ambiguity aversion is to decompose preferences into the subjective expected utility of an act and an ambiguity index, or an adjustment factor, or a dispersion function. However, in these approaches the dispersion function (or ambiguity index, or adjustment factor) has very little structure imposed on it, leaving the selection of a specific dispersion function in applications to be rather arbitrary. In this note, working in the Anscombe- Aumann (1963) framework, we provide a simpler axiomatic characterization of mean-dispersion preferences which uniquely identifies the dispersion function from the infinite class of possible alternatives. Given the representation, …

Designing Contests Between Heterogeneous Contestants: An Experimental Study Of Tie-Breaks And Bid-Caps In All-Pay Auctions, Aniol Llorente-Saguer, Roman M. Sheremeta, Nora Szech

ESI Working Papers

A well-known theoretical result in the contest literature is that greater heterogeneity decreases performance of contestants because of the “discouragement effect.” Leveling the playing field by favoring weaker contestants through bid-caps and favorable tie-breaking rules can reduce the discouragement effect and increase the designer’s revenue. We test these predictions in an experiment. Our data show that indeed, strengthening weaker contestants through tie-breaks and bid-caps significantly diminishes the discouragement effect. Bid-caps can also improve revenue. Most deviations from Nash equilibrium can be explained by the level-k model of reasoning.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- May 2016, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Spread Trading In Corn Futures Market, Ryan D. Napier

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The non-linear relationship between old crop – new crop year spreads in corn futures market and stock-to-use (S-U) ratios published by the United States Department of Agriculture is analyzed. Using a non-linear logarithmic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model, we capture asymmetric market behaviors in high and low S-U regimes. Capturing this relationship and understanding the non-linear aspects of the relationship is of interest of grain merchandizers and speculators in the market. A spread trading strategy is simulated for the sample period, January 1985 through April 2015, to determine if the non-linear relationship is a profitable arbitrage opportunity in the market.

On Refined And Robust Inferences For Spatial Econometric Models, Shew Fan Liu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Asymptotically refined and heteroskedasticity robust inferences are considered for spatial linear and panel regression models, based on the quasi maximum likelihood (QML) or the adjusted concentrated quasi score (ACQS) approaches. Refined inferences are achieved through bias correcting the QML estimators, bias correcting the t-ratios for covariate effects, and improving tests for spatial effects; heteroskedasticity-robust inferences are achieved through adjusting the quasi score functions. Several popular spatial linear and panel regression models are considered including the linear regression models with either spatial error dependence (SED), or spatial lag dependence (SLD), or both SED and SLD (SARAR), the linear regression models with …

Salience, Framing, And Decisions Under Risk, Uncertainty, And Time, Jonathan W. Leland, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

We propose a comparative model of decision making under risk, uncertainty, and time, in which large differences in payoffs and probabilities or dates of receipt are perceived as salient and overweighted in the evaluation process. The predictions of the model depend on what differences are compared across alternatives which, in turn, depends on how the choice is framed. We formalize a class of matrix-based frames which applies to decisions under risk, uncertainty, and time, and we specify two important types of frames within this class: minimal frames which provide the simplest representation of choice alternatives, and transparent frames which make …

New York Camp Econometrics Xi Program, Center For Policy Research

Camp Econometrics-Programs

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- April 2016, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Does Academic Performance Predict Workplace Productivity?, Jodie-Gaye Hunter

Honors Projects in Economics

This research examines if college GPA affects productivity and compensation in the workplace. It uses data collected from a survey of approximately 23,000 Bryant University graduates in different stages of their career. About 10 percent of the alumni surveyed completed the survey. The econometric model used in this study allows estimating the effect of GPA on income after controlling for various demographic and socioeconomic variables, including education, major, occupation, gender, among others. The empirical work provides evidence that GPA has a positive and statistically significant impact on workplace productivity for females, but GPA seems to be a weaker predictor of …

Disentangling Greenhouse Warming And Aerosol Cooling To Reveal Earth's Climate Sensitivity, T. Storelvmo, T. Leirvik, U. Lohmann, Peter C. B. Phillips, M. Wild

Research Collection School Of Economics

Earth's climate sensitivity has long been subject to heated debate and has spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of its most likely range(1). Recent observational studies have produced estimates of transient climate sensitivity, that is, the global mean surface temperature increase at the time of CO2 doubling, as low as 1.3 K (refs 2,3), well below the best estimate produced by global climate models (1.8 K). Here, we present an observation-based study of the time period 1964 to 2010, which does not rely on climate models. The method incorporates observations of greenhouse gas …

How Do Changes In Gasoline Prices Affect Bus Ridership In The Twin Cities?, Kim Eng Ky

Economics Honors Projects

What determines the likelihood a resident will take public transit? To understand the relative effects of various determinants of ridership, this study focuses on the effects of gasoline prices, controlling for other determinants such as number of workdays in a given month, traffic, unemployment rate, and service quality. As gasoline prices increase, it becomes more expensive to drive a car. Thus, customers would likely shy away from driving and substitute towards the alternatives; one of which is public transportation. This study aims to find the relationship between gasoline prices and bus ridership at a disaggregated level (route type level) in …

Two Essays On Investor Emotions And Their Effects In Financial Markets, Jiancheng Shen

Finance Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation provides empirical evidences on media-based investor emotions in predicting stock return, conditional volatility, and stock and bond return comovements.

We first studied the interaction between US media content and the US stock market returns and volatility. We utilize propriety investor sentiment measures developed by Thompson Reuters MarketPsych. We select four measures of investor sentiment that reflect both pessimism and optimism of small investors. Our objective is two-fold. First, we examine the ability of these sentiment measures to predict market returns. For this purpose, we use dynamic Vector Auto-Regressive models. Second, we are interested in exploring the effects of …

Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression With Endogeneity And Long Memory, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper explores nonparametric estimation, inference, and specification testing in a nonlinear cointegrating regression model where the structural equation errors are serially dependent and where the regressor is endogenous and may be driven by long memory innovations. Generalizing earlier results of Wang and Phillips (2009a, b, Econometric Theory 25, 710-738, Econometrica 77, 1901-1948), the conventional nonparametric local level kernel estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically (mixed) normal in these cases, thereby opening up inference by conventional nonparametric methods to a wide class of potentially nonlinear cointegrated relations. New results on the consistency of parametric estimates in nonlinear cointegrating …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2016, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Asymptotic Power Of The Sphericity Test Under Weak And Strong Factors In A Fixed Effects Panel Data Model, Badi H. Baltagi, Chihwa Kao, Fa Wang

Center for Policy Research

This paper studies the asymptotic power for the sphericity test in a fixed effect panel data model proposed by Baltagi, Feng and Kao (2011), (JBFK). This is done under the alternative hypotheses of weak and strong factors. By weak factors, we mean that the Euclidean norm of the vector of the factor loadings is O(1). By strong factors, we mean that the Euclidean norm of the vector of factor loadings is O(pn), where n is the number of individuals in the panel. To derive the limiting distribution of JBFK under the alternative, we first derive the limiting distribution of its …

The Impact Of Lending Rate On The Manufacturing Sector In Nigeria, D. B. Akpan, D. J. Yilkudi, D. C. Opiah

Economic and Financial Review

The study investigates the impact of lending rate on output of the manufacturing subsector using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and annual data from 1981- 2014. The empirical results indicated that high lending rate had negative impact on manufacturing output in the long-run. This suggests that increase in lending rate undermines manufacturing output, thus retarding growth in the real sector. Specifically, the estimates revealed that a 1.0 per cent increase in lending rate reduces manufacturing output by 0.03 per cent. The study, therefore, recommends the implementation of investment friendly policies that narrows the lending rate by the deposit money …

Prices, Markups, And Trade Reform, Jan De Loecker, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Amit K. Khandelwal, Nina Pavcnik

Dartmouth Scholarship

This paper examines how prices, markups, and marginal costs respond to trade liberalization. We develop a framework to estimate markups from production data with multi‐product firms. This approach does not require assumptions on the market structure or demand curves faced by firms, nor assumptions on how firms allocate their inputs across products. We exploit quantity and price information to disentangle markups from quantity‐based productivity, and then compute marginal costs by dividing observed prices by the estimated markups. We use India's trade liberalization episode to examine how firms adjust these performance measures. Not surprisingly, we find that trade liberalization lowers factory‐gate …