Econometrics Commons^™

The Economic Impacts Of Cougars In Western Washington, Todd Stoothoff

All Master's Theses

The combination of increasing cougar populations and the rising human population in Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) areas suggests that the number of human-cougar encounters will rise as well. The increase in human-cougar encounters creates potential issues in regard to public safety, public policy, and management of predators. For the purposes of this research, I employ a housing dataset for eleven counties in western Washington in order to quantify the impacts of a confirmed cougar sighting on the sale value of a home. Specifically, I employ the hedonic real estate price model. Results show statistically significant impacts on housing values in the …

Accounting For Locational, Temporal, And Physical Similarity Of Residential Sales In Mass Appraisal Modeling: The Development And Application Of Geographically, Temporally, And Characteristically Weighted Regression, Paul E. Bidanset, Michael Mccord, John R. Lombard, Peadar Davis, William J. Mccluskey

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

Geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been recognized in the assessment community as a viable automated valuation model (AVM) to help overcome, at least in part, modeling hurdles associated with location, such as spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation of error terms. Although previous researchers have adjusted the GWR weights matrix to also weight by time of sale or by structural similarity of properties in AVMs, the research described in this paper is the first that has done so by all three dimensions (i.e., location, structural similarity, and time of sale) simultaneously. Using 24 years of single-family residential sales in Fairfax, Virginia, …

Teaching Size And Power Properties Of Hypothesis Tests Through Simulations, Suleyman Taspinar, Osman Dogan

Publications and Research

In this study, we review the graphical methods suggested in Davidson and MacKinnon (Davidson, Russell, and James G. MacKinnon. 1998. “Graphical Methods for Investigating the Size and Power of Hypothesis Tests.” The Manchester School 66 (1): 1–26.) that can be used to investigate size and power properties of hypothesis tests for undergraduate and graduate econometrics courses. These methods can be used to assess finite sample properties of various hypothesis tests through simulation studies. In addition, these methods can be effectively used in classrooms to reinforce students’ understanding of basic hypothesis testing concepts such as Type I error, Type II error, …

Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.

The Fear Factor: Determinants Of Entrepreneurial Fear Of Failure, Pema Donyo

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis aims to investigate determinants of fear of failure in entrepreneurial activity that could inhibit starting a business. The study uses cross-sectional, pooled OLS, and panel regressions. The dependent variable is fear of failure regarding entrepreneurship, measured with the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) survey question of whether fear of failure would prevent the responder from starting a firm. The unit of analysis is at country level. I categorize determinants into demographic, property rights, and procedural variables. A population of higher working age ratio (measured as the population aged 15-64 divided by the population aged 65 and over) correlates with …

How Mobile Phones Can Spark An Entrepreneurial Revolution, Alison Choe

Scripps Senior Theses

In the last decade, there has been an exponential rise in mobile phones in both developed and developed countries. In light of that, this paper investigates whether the expansion of such mobile networks leads to increased entrepreneurial activity. By conducting panel regressions, I find the degree to which various stages of entrepreneurial activity is affected by increased mobile phone subscription rates. I use data from 80 countries from 2007 to 2015 and parse out the different effects between developing and developed countries, and between males and females. I find that larger mobile networks encourage entrepreneurship, particularly in the early stages, …

How Does The Million Baht Village Fund Impact Fertility In Thailand?, Kaci Felstet

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

This study evaluates the impact of Thailand’s Million Baht Village Fund program on household fertility decisions. Thailand’s fertility rates are alarmingly low and it is imperative to recognize the unintended consequences a microfinance program may have on fertility choices within Thailand. Using panel data from pre- and post-program years, this research identifies the change in number of babies in a household associated with getting a microloan from the Village Fund program. The quasi-experimental nature of the program and an instrumental variable model with fixed effects identifies a negative relationship between the number of babies within families and participation in the …

Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff

CMC Senior Theses

Very little has been written about the effect that oil prices have on manufacturing output in the United States. This paper aims to shed light about the effect of oil prices, oil imports, and GDP on U.S. manufacturing output through a four-variable vector autoregression and explain the timing of these shocks through impulse response functions. Empirical results find that oil prices are significant in determining manufacturing output, but manufacturing output is also significant in determining oil prices.

Compensating Against Turnover: Managers' Talent Retention Decisions In Major League Baseball Under A Budget Constraint, Emma Knoesen

Scripps Senior Theses

From 1997 to 1999 and 2003 to the present, Major League Baseball has had a luxury tax on high payroll teams. This paper analyzes the impact of the tax as a budget constraint on teams’ ability to reward and retain high performing players. In contrast to other papers, we use wins above replacement (WAR), a popular sabermetrics statistic, to measure performance. Using this metric, we quantify the number of top performers, how this performance is rewarded with salary, and how salary impacts players’ mobility decisions. We conclude that when using WAR, the distribution of performance is not heavy tailed and …

Are Donald Trump And Hillary Clinton Controlling The Stock Market? An Analysis Of The 2016 Presidential Election's Impact On Stock Market Volatility, Julia Tambone

Scripps Senior Theses

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump ran highly controversial campaigns in the 2016 Presidential Election, which then leaves us with the question of what impact is this having on the current economy? Prior analysis of political influence on the stock market tells us that isolating political impact on the stock market is nearly impossible. However, there are clearly defined 4-year cycles in stock prices that seem to correspond with election years. In this paper, I create my own index of stocks in the four major U.S. industries and measure both day-to-day and intraday volatility in stock prices across three comparable time …

Fiscal Policy And Its Effects On Economic Growth, Jordan J. Smith

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth during the time horizons of 1985, 1998, and 2014. Using cross country data from a minimum of 37 countries, it is found that international trade taxes share a partial correlation with economic growth. The magnitude of this relationship is found to be positive during all time horizons, and is diminishing over time. Estimates from 2014 suggest that a 10 percentage point increase in a country’s international trade tax will grant that country a .6% increase to their economic growth rate.

The Effects Of Foreign Aid On Income Inequality In Africa, Sierra Moore

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the correlation between donations of foreign aid given to African countries and the income inequality, measured using the Gini coefficient, within those countries. A panel method is used in order to analyze trends in a number of countries over a period of time. The independent variables in this study are official developmental assistance, income group, inflation measured by CPI, polity, GDP per capita growth, and population growth. The results of this study show a negative relationship between foreign aid and income inequality, which is consistent with recent studies on the effectiveness of aid.

Fdi And Income Inequality In Latin America, Terese Coulon

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

The main purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between FDI and income inequality in Latin America after Operation Condor. This study uses economic panel data from seven different Latin American countries over a sixteen year time period. This study takes place from 1982 to 1997. Other variables have been included in this study to achieve the most accurate results possible. The results from this study show that FDI is significant to income inequality at the 5% significance level in Latin America during this time period. Also, the results indicate that FDI has a positive effect on income …

The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap

CMC Senior Theses

The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications …

Quantifying The Trenches: Machine Learning Applied To Nfl Offensive Lineman Valuation, Sean Pyne

CMC Senior Theses

There are 32 teams in the National Football League all competing to be the best by creating the strongest roster possible. The problem of evaluating talent has created extreme competition between teams in the form of a rookie draft and a fiercely competitive veteran free agent market. The difficulty with player evaluation is due to the noise associated with measuring a particular player’s value. The intent of this paper is to create an algorithm for identifying the inefficiencies in pricing in these player markets. In particular, this paper focuses on the veteran free agent market for offensive linemen in the …

The Economic Impacts Of Forest Timber Methods In Washington State: A Hedonic Approach, Kaleb Javier

All Master's Theses

Washington State is one of the nation’s leaders in timber production. This paper establishes literature gap regarding the economic impacts of forest timber management methods. In this research, I employ a data set of 170,141 home sales across eleven counties of western Washington to estimate the impact that even-age and uneven-age forest cutting methods have on the local real-estate market. I estimate two sets of hedonic fixed effect regression models to control for omitted variable bias and spatial autocorrelation. The results show statistically significant impacts on property values for both cutting methods, adding important information for forest managers.

Deconstructing “Deviance” And “Disorder” As Systems Of Domination: Chicago Public Schools As A Case Study Of The Effects Of Zero Tolerance Discipline Policies On Educational Outcomes In Us Schools, Maya Kaul

Pomona Senior Theses

The rise of “zero tolerance” discipline practices in US primary and secondary schools has become increasingly well documented by the media and empirical studies. Despite the extensive scholarship that has emerged from these conversations, many of these analyses are limited in their scope and do not connect the phenomena of zero tolerance in schools to the diverse, shifting forces at play within American politics and policy today. As such, the goal of this work is to synthesize ideas about zero tolerance across disciplines by integrating historical thought, philosophical frameworks of punishment, shifting policy goals within the US education system, the …

Luis Daniel Gonzalez, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Luis Daniel Gonzalez. NA-24-12. 2017.

• Michael Lahr → I-O coefficients have a beta distribution in each column. 2017. Manuscript note credited to Anwar Shaikh, PhD.

• Michael Lahr — Luis Daniel defense. October 31, 2017. Manuscript note credited to Anwar Shaikh, PhD.

• Comments on Chapter 1: constraints, equilibrium, and empirical regularities. October 31, 2017. Manuscript note credited to Anwar Shaikh, PhD.

• Chapter 1: w-r can be linear if ρi’s are linear, in which case the composition of output. Manuscript note credited to Anwar Shaikh, PhD.

• Chapter 1: empirical regularities imply “constraints”. Manuscript …

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Robert Parker’S Wine Advocate And The Consequential Pricing Of Provençal Wines, Gweneth Marter

Scripps Senior Theses

Robert Parker is an esteemed, somewhat controversial wine-critic. Since 1978, Parker has assigned every wine he tastes a score between 50 and 100. He uses this method to communicate to both consumers and producers his opinion of the quality, taste, and aging potential of the wine. Between the years 2005 and 2015, Robert Parker graded 115 wines from the French region of Provence. The goal of this thesis is to determine whether and to what extent Robert Parker’s grades affect the price of wine. Through descriptive statistics and regression analysis of Robert Parker’s grade and year of production on the …

Reducing Extreme Poverty Through Skill Training For Industry Job Placement, Abu S. Shonchoy, Selim Raihan, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Vocational training programs aimed at rapidly growing sectors have the potential to reduce skills gaps, improve income and employment potentials. Such programs often been unsuccessful, because they are not driven by industry-demand and market-linkages, and they are not well targeted. Our rigorous RCT-based impact study shows that a targeted training-program offered to poor rural households in northwest Bangladesh has significant effects on employment in garment factories. Data from a follow-up — six and twelve months’ after the intervention — shows a statistically significant and large employment effect of the training program when it is combined with the stipend or internship.This …