Econometrics Commons^™

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- July 2017, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Bondholder Reorganization Of Systemically Important Financial Institutions, Steven Gjerstad

ESI Working Papers

This paper describes a resolution process for faltering financial firms that quickly allocates losses to bondholders and transfers ownership of the firm to them. This process overcomes the most serious flaws in resolution plans submitted by banks under Dodd-Frank Title I and in the FDIC receivership procedure in Dodd-Frank Title II by restoring the balance sheet of a failing financial institution and immediately replacing the management and board of directors who allowed its demise. In almost all bank failures, this process would eliminate the need for government involvement beyond court certification of the reorganization. The procedure overcomes the serious incentive …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2017, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Quantum Ideas In Economics Beyond Quantum Econometrics, Vladik Kreinovich, Hung T. Nguyen, Songsak Sriboonchitta

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

It is known that computational methods developed for solving equations of quantum physics can be successfully applied to solve economic problems; there is a whole related research area called quantum econometrics. Current quantum econometrics techniques are based on a purely mathematical similarity between the corresponding equations, without any attempt to relate the underlying ideas. We believe that the fact that quantum equations can be successfully applied in economics indicates that there is a deeper relation between these areas, beyond a mathematical similarity. In this paper, we show that there is indeed a deep relation between the main ideas of …

Macroeconomic Instability Index And Threshold For The Nigerian Economy, B. A. G. Amoo, J. K. Achua, N. P. Audu, B. Hamma

Economic and Financial Review

The paper employed statistical algorithms, factor analysis and threshold autoregressive models to address the gaps in management of macroeconomic instability in Nigeria. Using data spanning 2010q1 to 2017q2, the findings showed that the values of macroeconomic instability index (MII) fluctuated between 0.316 and 0.609, with a threshold of 0.461. This showed an inverse relationship between macroeconomic instability and economic growth. This framework could serve as a mechanism to gauge early warning signal of instability in Nigeria.

Unofficial Dollarisation And Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Y. Adamu

Economic and Financial Review

This paper examined the impact of dollarisation on monetary policy in Nigeria, using monthly data spanning 2002 to 2016. The paper adopted the conventional IMF proxy for dollarisation and traced its reactions to changing monetary policy stance. Using the vector autoregression (VAR) model and interbank rate as an indicator of monetary policy stance, the results showed that the size of dollarisation could influence the outcome of monetary policy, though the impact was small. This was evident from the output equations, that inflation did not respond in the first month and responded negatively in the second month. However, from the third …

Indirect Inference In Spatial Autoregression, Maria Kyriacou, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Ordinary least-squares (OLS) is well known to produce an inconsistent estimator of the spatial parameter in pure spatial autoregression (SAR). In this paper, we explore the potential of indirect inference to correct the inconsistency of OLS. Under broad conditions, it is shown that indirect inference (II) based on OLS produces consistent and asymptotically normal estimates in pure SAR regression. The II estimator used here is robust to departures from normal disturbances and is computationally straightforward compared with quasi-maximum likelihood (QML). Monte Carlo experiments based on various specifications of the weight matrix show that: (a) the II estimator displays little bias …

Indirect Inference In Spatial Autoregression, Maria Kyriacou, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Ordinary least-squares (OLS) is well known to produce an inconsistent estimator of the spatial parameter in pure spatial autoregression (SAR). In this paper, we explore the potential of indirect inference to correct the inconsistency of OLS. Under broad conditions, it is shown that indirect inference (II) based on OLS produces consistent and asymptotically normal estimates in pure SAR regression. The II estimator used here is robust to departures from normal disturbances and is computationally straightforward compared with quasi-maximum likelihood (QML). Monte Carlo experiments based on various specifications of the weight matrix show that: (a) the II estimator displays little bias …

Considerations For Mexican Immigration Policy Reform: How Motivations To Migrate Align With U.S. And Mexican Macroeconomic Conditions, Alix Naugler

Undergraduate Honors Theses

The nationalistic rhetoric adopted by the newly-elected president’s administration along with the public’s climaxing anti-immigrant hysteria has recently forced Mexican immigration intervention to the top of the U.S. agenda. Misconceptions regarding Mexicans’ role in stealing jobs, threatening cultural and ethnic traditions, and straining public welfare, educational, and healthcare resources have spurred a fear among the American people. This politically-fabricated “schizophrenia” has ceased the political and economic collaboration between the two nations and has resulted in the unilateral militarization of the U.S.-Mexico border. In this evaluation of the U.S. government’s immigration policies, the proposed economic theories related to Mexicans’ motivations in …

The Effect Of Integration: A Study On The Impact Of Diversity On Economic Indicators, Luke H. Schleier

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper examines the effect of diversity, measured by the dissimilarity index, on the economic strength of an area. Economic strength is measured using five economic indicators: median home value, median income, median gross rent, percentage of people with health insurance, and firms per capita. The work aims to show that there is a positive economic impact due to integrating and creating communities that are more diverse. Previous work shows there is a positive impact of diversity on economic indicators such as wages, rents, and production but previous studies do not look at the effect on these economic indicators. This …

A Dual-Role Analysis Of Game Form Misconception And Cognitive Bias In Financial And Economic Decision Making, Chinedum D. Nwadiora

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

The endowment and the framing effect are widely examined cognitive biases. The experimental economics literature, using choice data gathered through an elicitation device, commonly finds evidence of these biases. Recent work by Cason & Plott (2014) shows that the interpretation of choice data as consistent with biases related non-standard preference theory could also be consistent with confusion or misconception of the game type used to elucidate preferences. I use the Cason and Plott card auction framework to analyze offers of buyers and sellers in an experimental setting with subjects from the University of New Orleans simulating 97 sellers and 90 …

Do Marketing Strategies Impact Condom Sales In Uganda?, Meyhar Mohammed

Master's Theses

What attracts people to buy condoms? HIV/AIDS remain one of the biggest health dangers of the world, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. A lot of efforts have been pursued in the past two decades to drastically reduce prevalence of HIV and increase awareness about preventive mechanisms. In order to prevent relapse of success achieved so far, it is important to recognize transformation of consumer behavior due to growth in social networks, education and awareness over time. There are a lot of behavioral triggers captured by social marketing interventions in the field of public health. In an attempt to investigate the role …

The Rise Of The Maquiladoras And Crimes In Mexico, Christelle K. Bamona

Master's Theses

While it is generally argued that a stronger labor market is negatively associated with crime, there exists a “consensus of doubt” around the relationship between employment and crime. This paper examines the impact of the rise of female labor participation in manufacturing on various types of crimes in Mexico from 1998 to 2012. A fixed effects specification and an instrumental variable approach with regional and time fixed effects are employed to compare the crime rates in municipalities that were heavily exposed to local factory openings to municipalities that did not receive a labor shock of the same magnitude. By introducing …

Income Shocks And The Acceptance Of Intimate Partner Violence In Indonesia, Matthew N. Krupoff

Master's Theses

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a pervasive issue affecting 1 in 3 women worldwide. Despite the negative welfare impacts, it is still seen as acceptable in some parts of the world, even amongst women. This paper examines how elastic these accepting attitudes towards IPV are to changing economic conditions. Specifically, this paper focuses on changes in intra-household resources from negative shocks to male-sourced income. The setting and context takes place in coastal communities in Indonesia, where fishing is a main source ofincome generated primarily by men. This paper uses satellite-derived fishing conditions to measure how women's attitudes towards IPV change …

Goal Effectiveness In Achieving Educational Outcomes: Experimental Evidence From 9th Graders In Medellin, Colombia, Daniel Salicath, Alessandra Cassar

Master's Theses

Does goal setting among low-income ninth graders leads to higher average goal achievements of educational outcomes? This question is explored by a field experiment motivated by the acknowledged California-based Family Independence Initiative (FII), to analyze the effectiveness of individual goal setting, incentives and self-help groups on the achievement of educational goals. By randomizing treatments and control with the cooperation of the Secretary of Education in Medellin, different classrooms were assigned to five different experimental groups that met systematically for five months. The results show that goal setting is a cost-effective method to help low-income students achieve educational outcomes. Setting a …

Unemployment, Does It Really Hurt?, Claudia Vargas

Theses and Dissertations

This paper analyzes the consequences of changes in the unemployment rate in Colombia on the level of education attained for adolescents. Increases in the unemployment rate are associated with an increase in the average number of years of education. No significant effect was found for men of the same age.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- May 2017, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

The Impact Of Commercial Banking Development On Economic Growth: A Principal Component Analysis Of Association Between Banking Industry And Economic Growth In Europe, Hugh L. Davis Iii

Dissertations

There are significant differences in the economic growth trajectories of Western, Central and Eastern Europe since the beginning of the democratic movements of the early 1990s. It may be observed that the more developed the region, the lower the growth rate. There are a number of explanations for this growth rate variance, e.g. cultural, resources, institutional and/or political. An explanation this research is pursuing is institutional - the correlation between banking development and economic growth. More specifically, does banking development have a greater impact on growth where economic development begins at a lower level?

Very little research has been directed …

In-Fill Asymptotic Theory For Structural Break Point In Autoregression: A Unified Theory, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimatorof structural break point in the OrnsteinñUhlenbeck process when a continuousrecord is available. The exact distribution is asymmetric, tri-modal, dependenton the initial condition. These three properties are also found in the önite sampledistribution of the least squares (LS) estimator of structural break point inautoregressive (AR) models. Motivated by these observations, the paper then developsan in-öll asymptotic theory for the LS estimator of structural break point inthe AR(1) coe¢ cient. The in-öll asymptotic distribution is also asymmetric, trimodal,dependent on the initial condition, and delivers excellent approximationsto the önite sample distribution. Unlike …

Singapore’S Life Program: Actuarial Framework, Longevity Risk And Impact Of Annuity Fund Return, Koon Shing Kwong, Yiu Kuen Tse, Wai-Sum Chan

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Central Provident Fund (CPF) is a defined-contribution savings plan forming the key pillar of the pension system in Singapore. The CPF Lifelong Income For the Elderly (LIFE) program, which provides lifetime income for retirees, is a mandatory pension scheme for all Singapore residents. In this paper we construct an actuarial framework to analyze the LIFE program. We use this framework to study the plan payout outcomes with respect to changes in mortality and annuity fund return assumptions. We also examine the effects of some possible changes in the program on the payouts and bequests.