Econometrics Commons^™

Why You Pay What You Pay At The Pump, Jason Orne

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates several factors that strongly influence the day to day consumer price of Gasoline in America. This study incorporates existing information on the most likely variables that should influence gasoline prices from the beginning of 2006 to the very end of 2009. The study looks at contributing factors that include the average price of gasoline from the week before (pennies per gallon), the current weeks average oil price (Dollars per barrel), the previous weeks average oil price (Dollars per barrel), and the US production, and consumption of gasoline (1000 barrels per day). Using macro-level data from the US …

I-O Tables Guide, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Ch. 10: Price/value revisions. NA-24-13.

• Add survey from Jefferis (attached).

• Add survey from Jeffries (attached).

• Email from Lefteris to Anwar Shaikh regarding chapter revisions and additional empirical studies. In this message, Lefteris notes that the attachment contains a summary of empirical studies from a 2010 paper with Paitaridis and that more recent papers with Theodore are already included in the references.

• Extract from Tsoulfidis and Paitaridis, “On the labor theory of value: Statistical artefacts or regularities?” This excerpt reviews empirical studies of price-value deviations and related debates.

• References for the chapter excerpt. …

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Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Time Series Model, A. Eriksson, D. Preve, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible nonnegative semiparametric model to forecast financial volatility. The new model extends the linear nonnegative autoregressive model of Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard (2001) and Nielsen & Shephard (2003) by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric in the sense that the distributional form of its error component is left unspecified. The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed. Asymptotic properties are established for the new estimation method. Simulation studies validate the new estimation method. The out-of-sample performance of the proposed model is evaluated against a number …

Rxr Rulc Typed Notes And Model Results, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2002). Full exchange rate and balance of payments model. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, A. (2009). Real exchange rate vs. adjusted relative real unit labor costs and covered interest rate differentials. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, A. (2009). Least squares estimations of deviations of the terms of trade from rescaled relative unit labor costs. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, A. (2009). Tests of uncovered interest parity versus the classical relative price hypothesis: Exchange rate changes and real interest differentials. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, A. (2010). United States and Japan macroeconomic cointegration analysis, unit root tests, and error correction …

Rulc Rxr Econometrics, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. Rule exchange rate and real exchange rate econometrics and stationarity analysis.
• Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T. J., & Stock, J. H. Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root.
• Ng, S., & Perron, P. Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships.
• Shaikh, A. Gretl statistical regression software outputs for terms of trade and unit labor cost models.
• Shaikh, A. Simulated terms of trade, relative unit labor …

The Impact Of Monetary Policy Announcements On Stock Market: Evidence From China, Yu Zeng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In this paper we examine how stock returns in China respond to monetary policy announcements made by PBC in a short term around announcement day. We employ a nonparametric event-study method to investigate such reactions. We arrive at the following conclusions. Firstly, there is information leakage of monetary policy changes, which is verified by significant changes in stock returns before monetary policy announcement and quitness of stock market after announcement. Secondly, financially constrained and financially unconstrained firms respond quite similarly to monetary policy shocks, which disobeys credit channel of monetary policy transmission in the short run. Thirdly, reserve ratio changes …

Bayesian Analysis Of Country Risk Premia In Developing Small Open Economies, Seigmund Vincent Roque Conti

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis studies a model presented by Neumeyer & Perri (2005), which aims to explain the strong countercyclicality of interest rates and net exports in emerging market economies. The model accomplishes this by decomposing interest rates into an international rate and a country risk component, and by making labor demand sensitive to movements in these rates via a working capital constraint imposed on the representative firm. Moreover, it proposes two approaches to determining the stochastic processes for these interest rates: the independent country risk case and the induced country risk case. The induced country risk model calibrated to Argentine data …

Some Professionals Play Minimax: A Reexamination Of The Minimax Theory In Major League Baseball, Jeffrey Park

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores the behavior of Major League Baseball pitchers. We analyze the pitching data from 2007-2010 in order to determine whether their actions follow minimax play. We also examine what the OPS statistic tells us about a pitcher's value.

An Economic Impact Study Of The "Boom" Period Of Baseball Stadium Redevelopment, Emily Mcnab

CMC Senior Theses

The intention of this study is to analyze the economic impact of redeveloped Major League Baseball stadiums opened between 1991 and 2004. Using two empirical models, including an event study, this impact analysis captures the economic conditions of the cities during the opening year of the stadium, as well as the prior conditions leading up to the opening of the stadium, along with any lingering effects or gradual changes in conditions. The impact was measured in relation to the Metropolitan Statistical Areas corresponding to the 18 ballparks included, specifically looking at the impact on employment rates and per capita personal …

Nonparametric Tests For Poolability In Panel Data Models With Cross Section Dependence, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a nonparametric test for poolability in large dimensional semiparametric panel data models with cross-section dependence based on the sieve estimation technique. To construct the test statistic, we only need to estimate the model under the alternative. We establish the asymptotic normal distributions of our test statistic under the null hypothesis of poolability and a sequence of local alternatives, and prove the consistency of our test. We also suggest a bootstrap method as an alternative way to obtain the critical values and justify its validity. A small set of Monte Carlo simulations indicate the test performs …

Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Models, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this chapter we develop and implement a method for maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the continuous time stochastic volatility model with the constant elasticity of volatility. The approach does not require observations on option prices, nor volatility. To integrate out latent volatility from the joint density of return and volatility, a modified efficient importance sampling technique is used after the continuous time model is approximated using the Euler–Maruyama scheme. The Monte Carlo studies show that the method works well and the empirical applications illustrate usefulness of the method. Empirical results provide strong evidence against the Heston model.

Discussion & Notes On Quality Adjustments Bias Of K Stock, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States, 1925–89, written by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, published by the U.S. Government Printing Office, in the year 1993.
• Discussion & note on quality adj bias of k stock, an unpublished set of handwritten research notes and analytical commentary prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on September 17, 2010.
• Kstock bias in quality adj. prices, a manuscript file folder label inscribed with the identification code NA-23-65, prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on June 5, 2026.
• Alternate measures of current-cost output/capital indexes: 1947 = 100, an unpublished …

Visibility Of Contributions And Cost Of Information: An Experiment On Public Goods, Anya Savikhin, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

We experimentally investigate the impact of visibility of information about contributors on contributions in the public goods game. We systematically consider several treatments that are similar to a wide range of situations in practice. First, we vary the cost of viewing identifiable information about contributors. Second, we vary recognizing all, top or bottom contributors. We find that recognizing all contributors significantly increases contributions relative to the baseline. Recognizing only the top contributors is not significantly different from not recognizing contributors, but recognizing only the bottom contributors is as effective as recognizing all contributors. When viewing information about contributors is costly, …

Fight Or Flight? Defending Against Sequential Attacks In The Game Of Siege, Cary Deck, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

This paper examines theory and behavior in a two-player game of siege, sequential attack and defense. The attacker’s objective is to successfully win at least one battle while the defender’s objective is to win every battle. Theoretically, the defender either folds immediately or, if his valuation is sufficiently high and the number of battles is sufficiently small, then he has a constant incentive to fight in each battle. Attackers respond to defense with diminishing assaults over time. Consistent with theoretical predictions, our experimental results indicate that the probability of successful defense increases in the defenders valuation and it decreases in …

Affecting Policy By Manipulating Prediction Markets: Experimental Evidence, Cary Deck, Shengle Lin, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

Documented results indicate prediction markets effectively aggregate information and form accurate predictions. This has led to a proliferation of markets predicting everything from the results of elections to a company’s sales to movie box office receipts. Recent research suggests prediction markets are robust to manipulation attacks and resulting market outcomes improve forecast accuracy. However, we present evidence from the lab indicating that single‐minded, well‐funded manipulators can in fact destroy a prediction market’s ability to aggregate informative prices and mislead those who are making forecasts based upon market predictions. However, we find that manipulators primarily influence market trades meaning outstanding bids …

Can Markets Save Lives? An Experimental Investigation Of A Market For Organ Donations, Cary Deck, Erik O. Kimbrough

ESI Working Papers

Many people die while waiting for organ transplants even though the number of usable organs is far larger than the number needed for transplant. Governments have devised many policies aimed at increasing available transplant organs with variable success. However, with few exceptions, policy makers are reluctant to establish markets for organs despite the potential for mutually beneficial exchanges. We ask whether organ markets could save lives. Controlled laboratory methods are ideal for this inquiry because human lives would be involved when implementing field trials. Our results suggest that markets can increase the supply of organs available for transplant, but that …

Personality And The Consistency Of Risk Taking Behavior: Experimental Evidence, Cary Deck, Jungmin Lee, Javier Reyes

ESI Working Papers

Researchers have found that an individual’s risk attitude is not stable across elicitation methods. Results reported by Deck et al. (2009) suggest that personality may help explain the apparent inconsistency, offering support to Borghans et al.’s (2008) argument that economists should consider a multi‐domain approach to measuring risk attitudes. This paper uses laboratory methods to compare risk attitudes as measured by the Holt and Laury (2002) procedure under two different frames. We find that, as in Deck et al. (2009), one’s willingness to take financial risks (as measured by Weber et al. 2002) significantly affects behavior; however the effect is …

Perfect And Imperfect Real-Time Monitoring In A Minimum-Effort Game, Cary Deck, Nikos Nikiforakis

ESI Working Papers

This paper presents the results from a minimum-effort game in which individuals can observe the choices of others in real time. We find that under perfect monitoring almost all groups coordinate at the payoff-dominant equilibrium. However, when individuals can only observe the actions of their immediate neighbors in a circle network, monitoring improves neither coordination nor efficiency relative to a baseline treatment without real-time monitoring. We argue that the inefficiency of imperfect monitoring is due to information uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about the interpretation of the information available regarding the actions of others.

Price Increasing Competition? Experimental Evidence, Cary Deck, Jingping Gu

ESI Working Papers

Economic intuition suggests that increased competition generates lower prices. However, recent theoretical work shows that a monopolist may charge a lower price than a firm facing a competitor selling a differentiated product. The direction of the price change when competition is introduced is dependent upon the joint distribution of buyer values for the two products. We explore this relationship using controlled laboratory experiments. Our results indicate that the distribution of buyer values does affect prices in a manner consistent with the theoretical predictions, although price increasing competition is rare due in part to overly intense competition regardless of the distribution …

The Attack And Defense Of Weakest-Link Networks, Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

This paper experimentally examines behavior in a two-player game of attack and defense of a weakest-link network of targets, in which the attacker‟s objective is to successfully attack at least one target and the defender‟s objective is diametrically opposed. We apply two benchmark contest success functions (CSFs): the auction CSF and the lottery CSF. Consistent with the theoretical prediction, under the auction CSF, attackers utilize a stochastic “guerilla warfare” strategy — in which a single random target is attacked — more than 80% of the time. Under the lottery CSF, attackers utilize the stochastic guerilla warfare strategy almost 45% of …