Behavioral Economics Commons^™

Distinguishing Probability Weighting From Risk Misperceptions In Field Data, Levon Barseghyan, Francesca Molinari, Ted O'Donoghue, Joshua C. Teitelbaum

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

The paper outlines a strategy for distinguishing rank-dependent probability weighting from systematic risk misperceptions in field data. Our strategy relies on singling out a field environment with two key properties: (i) the objects of choice are money lotteries with more than two outcomes and (ii) the ranking of outcomes differs across lotteries. We first present an abstract model of risky choice that elucidates the identification problem and our strategy. The model has numerous applications, including insurance choices and gambling. We then consider the application of insurance deductible choices and illustrate our strategy using simulated data.

The Pigou-Dalton Principle And The Structure Of Distributive Justice, Matthew D. Adler

Faculty Scholarship

The Pigou-Dalton (PD) principle recommends a non-leaky, non-rank-switching transfer of goods from someone with more goods to someone with less. This Article defends the PD principle as an aspect of distributive justice --- enabling the comparison of two distributions, neither completely equal, as more or less just. It shows how the PD principle flows from a particular view, adumbrated by Thomas Nagel, about the grounding of distributive justice in individuals' "claims." And it criticizes two competing frameworks for thinking about justice that less clearly support the principle: the veil-of-ignorance framework, and Larry Temkin's proposal that fairer distributions are those concerning …

Can We Build Behavioral Game Theory?, Gale M. Lucas, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Mark Turner

Faculty Scholarship

The way economists and other social scientists model how people make interdependent decisions is through the theory of games. Psychologists and behavioral economists, however, have established many deviations from the predictions of game theory. In response to these findings, a broad movement has arisen to salvage the core of game theory. Extant models of interdependent decision-making try to improve their explanatory domain by adding some corrective terms or limits. We will make the argument that this approach is misguided. For this approach to work, the deviations would have to be consistent. Drawing in part on our experimental results, we will …

Against Endowment Theory: Experimental Economics And Legal Scholarship, Greg Klass, Kathryn Zeiler

Faculty Scholarship

Endowment theory holds the mere ownership of a thing causes people to assign greater value to it than they otherwise would. The theory entered legal scholarship in the early 1990s and quickly eclipsed other accounts of how ownership affects valuation. Today, appeals to a generic “endowment effect” can be found throughout the legal literature. More recent experimental results, however, suggest that the empirical evidence for endowment theory is weak at best. When the procedures used in laboratory experiments are altered to rule out alternative explanations, the “endowment effect” disappears. This and other recent evidence suggest that mere ownership does not …

Grandparents As Guards: A Game Theoretic Analysis Of Inheritance And Post Marital Residence In A World Of Uncertain Paternity, Brishti Guha

Research Collection School Of Economics

I unify the following (1) men face paternal uncertainty while women do not face maternal uncertainty, (2) putative fathers and paternal kin care about true paternity, (3) paternity confidence is systematically lower in matrilocal cultures than in patrilocal ones, (4) inheritance tends to be patrilineal in high paternity confidence cultures and matrilineal in low confidence ones, and (5) most societies with patrilineal inheritance were patrilocal while most societies with matrilineal inheritance were matrilocal. I model the co-evolution of inheritance patterns and post-marital residence patterns - and their relationship with paternity uncertainty. Using a game theoretic model, I examine how a …

Traditional And Market-Based Financial Intermediaries: Three Essays Examining Their Risk Behavior, Delisting Behavior, And Reactions To Economic Policy Uncertainty, Marc S. Schaffer

Dissertations

In the wake of our country’s greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression, the need to better understand the risks and behaviors associated with financial intermediaries has become apparent. In particular, the literature distinguishes between traditional or depository-based financial intermediaries and their market-based or non-depository counterparts. This dissertation focuses on understanding the behavioral differences across these two groups by examining their equity-based risk differences, their stock market delisting differences, and lastly how these firms react to economic policy uncertainty.

The first essay uses an equity-based approach to quantify the average firm-level risk that is associated with these intermediary groups. While …

The Nature Of Risk Preferences: Evidence From Insurance Choices, Levon Barseghyan, Francesca Molinari, Joshua C. Teitelbaum, Ted O'Donoghue

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

The authors use data on insurance deductible choices to estimate a structural model of risky choice that incorporates "standard" risk aversion (diminishing marginal utility for wealth) and probability distortions. They find that probability distortions--characterized by substantial overweighting of small probabilities and only mild insensitivity to probability changes--play an important role in explaining the aversion to risk manifested in deductible choices. This finding is robust to allowing for observed and unobserved heterogeneity in preferences. They demonstrate that neither Kőszegi-Rabin loss aversion alone nor Gul disappointment aversion alone can explain our estimated probability distortions, signifying a key role for probability weighting.

Schooling, Political Participation, And The Economy, Filipe R. Campante, Davin Chor

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate how the link between individual schooling and political participation is a ected by country characteristics. Using individual survey data, we nd that political participation is more responsive to schooling in land-abundant countries, and less responsive in human capital-abundant countries, even while controlling for country political institutions and cultural attitudes. We propose an explanation that centers on how individuals allocate the use of their human capital. A relative abundance of land (used primarily in the least skill-intensive sector) or a scarcity of aggregate hu- man capital increases both the level of political participation and its responsiveness to schooling, by …

Understanding Child Work And Child Labor In The 21st Century: A Focus On Malawi And Tanzania, Courage Chikomborero Mudzongo

Faculty Publications - Doctor of Psychology (PsyD) Program

Child labor is on the increase and this is exacerbating an already desperate situation in Africa. Past research has focused on which levels of determinants are most effective in influencing the decision on children’s activities. Using the Malawi Integrated Household Survey and the Tanzania National Panel Survey, this research seeks to unearth the factors that influence the number of hours that child workers and laborers work. I can conclude that the greatest degrees of change are at the individual level as child’s enrollment status is significant for child workers from Malawi and Tanzania and laborers from Tanzania. At the community …

University Of Arkansas Athletics Economic Impact, Katherine A. Deck, Mervin Jebaraj

Publications and Presentations

The Center for Business and Economic Research in the Sam M. Walton College of Business at the University of Arkansas was approached by the Athletic Department to conduct an economic impact study of its operations and the visitor impacts associated with the athletic events held on the University of Arkansas campus. This study examines the economic impact of the athletic department from three broad categories of activities that produce economic impacts. The first category presented in this study is the direct economic impacts of the operations of the University of Arkansas Athletic Department, using annual expenditures of the department and …

Estimating The Economic Impact Of Garvan Woodland Gardens, Katherin A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman

Publications and Presentations

The study is organized as follows. First, the facilities and programs at Garvan Woodland Gardens are described in detail. Next, information on visitor and member counts, employment and volunteers, and financial information from the Gardens are provided. Finally, the results of the economic impact analysis from the IMPLAN input‐output model are presented for employment, value‐added, and output impacts on the Hot Springs area and the state of Arkansas. The detailed employment and output impacts by industry are available in the Appendix. Estimated employment impacts are compared to the county and state employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to …

An Evolutionary Analysis Of Turnout With Conformist Citizens, Massimiliano Landi, Mauro Sodini

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an evolutionary analysis of a voting game where citizens have a preference for conformism that adds to the instrumental preference for the electoral outcome. Multiple equilibria arise, and some generate high turnout. Simulations of best response dynamics show that high turnout is asymptotically stable if conformism matters but its likelihood depends on the reference group for conformism: high turnout is more likely when voters care about their own group's choice, as this better overrides the free rider problem of voting games. Comparative statics on the voting cost distribution, the population's size or the groups' composition are also done.

Central Place Theory And City Size Distribution, Wen-Tai Hsu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a theory of city size distribution via a hierarchy approach rather than the popular random growth process. It does so by formalizing central place theory using an equilibrium entry model and specifying the conditions under which city size distribution follows a power law. Central place theory describes the way in which a hierarchical city system with different layers of cities serving differently sized market areas is formed from a uniformly populated space. The force driving the city size differences in this model is the heterogeneity in economies of scale across goods. The city size distribution under a …

Gambling On Genes: Ambiguity Aversion Explains Investment In Sisters' Children, Brishti Guha

Research Collection School Of Economics

Many men invest in their sisters’ children instead of their wives’. Existing theories addressing such behavior depend on the level of paternity probability in such men’s societies being implausibly low. I link this anthropologically observed investment behavior with the experimentally observed phenomenon that some individuals are ambiguity averse. Arguing that men’s decisions are made under ambiguity, I show that an increase in ambiguity aversion results in investment in sisters’, rather than wives’, children. I show that this can happen even under risk neutrality. I also consider the special cases of a SEU maximizer and of extreme ambiguity aversion in the …

Valuing Improvements To Coastal Waters Using Choice Experiments: An Application To Revisions Of The Eu Bathing Waters Directive, Stephen Hynes, Dugald Tinch, Nick Hanley

Working Papers

Planned changes to the European Union’s Bathing Waters Directive (2006/7 EC) will force member states to produce improvements in a number of parameters of coastal water quality. This study uses the choice experiment method to estimate the economic benefits attached to such improvements, based on a sample of recreationalists on beaches in Ireland. The analysis indicates that improvements in all of the bathing water related attributes studied result in positive willingness to pay, and also show evidence of scope effects. Using random parameters and latent class modelling techniques, potential heterogeneity in preferences is then investigated and shown to be present …

The Role Of Macroeconomic And Group Threat In Prejudice, Aaron Hass

Morehead State Theses and Dissertations

A thesis presented to the faculty of the College of Science and Technology at Morehead State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science by Aaron Haas on June 11, 2012.

Crime And Moral Hazard: Does More Policing Necessarily Induce Private Negligence?, Brishti Guha, Ashok S. Guha

Research Collection School Of Economics

Even risk-neutral individuals can insure themselves against crimes by combining direct expenditure on security with costly diversification. In such cases — and even when one of these options is infeasible — greater policing often actually encourages private precautions.

Crime And Moral Hazard: Does More Policing Necessarily Induce Private Negligence?, Brishti Guha, Ashok S. Guha

Research Collection School Of Economics

Even risk-neutral individuals can insure themselves against crimes by combining direct expenditure on security with costly diversification. In such cases — and even when one of these options is infeasible — greater policing often actually encourages private precautions.

Revisiting The Economic Impact Of The Natural Gas Activity In The Fayetteville Shale: 2008-2012, Katherine A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman

Publications and Presentations

In 2008, the Center for Business and Economic Research released a study that estimated the economic impact of projected Fayetteville Shale activities from 2008 to 2012. This updated report revisits the assumptions of the initial study, reviews the impact of actual activities in the Fayetteville Shale from 2008 to 2011, and delivers some insights into projected impacts for 2012.

Exploration and production of natural gas in the Fayetteville Shale area generates direct effects from drilling wells and causes the need for supporting activities such as construction, transportation, storage, and distribution. Moreover, investments made by oil and gas companies produce indirect …

The Evolution Of The “Southwest Effect”, Daniel Webb

Honors Projects in Finance

The “Southwest effect” - a large decrease in fares paired with an increase in traffic - has been discussed around the airline industry since the term was first coined in a government study in the early 1990s. But the airline industry has drastically changed since then - Southwest has become the largest domestic airline, and many of its competitors have had the chance to restructure through bankruptcy.

This study examines some of Southwest's latest city additions, as well as a few of the airline’s intra-California routes where it is now a dominant player. Using publically-available government data, the change in …