Data Science Commons^™

Understanding Model Behaviour And Interpretability In Time Series Forecasting: A Deep Dive Into Lstm And Gru With Xai Techniques., Federico Ariton

ICT

Time-series forecasting is widely used in data analytics, yet the interpretability of deep learning models remains a key challenge. This study compares Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models using a dual interpretability framework that combines attention mechanisms and SHAP analysis. Two feature sets were evaluated across assets with different volatility regimes: Solana and Shiba Inu (high volatility), Bitcoin (moderate volatility), and Apple (low volatility). Results show that autoregressive features achieved the lowest forecasting errors, while volatility- and momentum-based indicators provided stronger interpretability. GRU performed best in moderate-volatility conditions, whereas LSTM demonstrated more consistent performance across varying …

Fares On Fairness: Using A Total Error Framework To Examine The Role Of Measurement And Representation In Training Data On Model Fairness And Bias, Patrick Oliver Schenk, Christoph Kern, Trent D. Buskirk

Information Technology & Decision Sciences Faculty Publications

Data-driven decisions, often based on predictions from machine learning (ML) models are becoming ubiquitous. For these decisions to be just, the underlying ML models must be fair, i.e., work equally well for all parts of the population such as groups defined by gender or age. What are the logical next steps if, however, a trained model is accurate but not fair? How can we guide the whole data pipeline such that we avoid training unfair models based on inadequate data, recognizing possible sources of unfairness early on? How can the concepts of data-based sources of unfairness that exist in the …

Optimizing Decision-Making In A Cerebral Palsy Model Using Reinforcement Learning, Richard Ampah

Pitzer Senior Theses

This study presents an original interdisciplinary investigation into how reinforcement learning (RL) can model motor and cognitive defects and potentially improve motor and cognitive functions in individuals with cerebral palsy (CP), a non-progressive neurological disorder that impairs movement and adaptability. Integrating computational neuroscience and machine learning, the research applies policy gradient methods and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to simulate adaptive learning in agents with and without CP-related constraints.

The central aim is to compare the cumulative rewards of optimal policies, derived from value iteration, and human-like learning policies using the REINFORCE algorithm, both with and without the Bellman baseline. The …

Brain Tumor Classification Using Deep Learning- Poster, Rayen Bentemessek

ICT

The project presents deep learning solutions to classify brain tumors through MRI images. Two Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models were developed, a custom CNN designed from scratch and a pretrained ResNet50 that was transfer learned and fine-tuned.

Both models were implemented following CRISP-DM methodology from data understanding to deployment, and they were evaluated using different metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall and F1-score.

Key Highlights: •The custom CNN model achieved higher accuracy but failed to locate tumors. •ResNet50 provided a good performance while balancing explainability through Grad-CAM. •Model was deployed through Gradio to demonstrate a real-world use of the solution.

European Air Pollution And The Proposed Timelines Of Implementing The World Health Organization 2021 Air Quality Guidelines Ca3., Lukia Hartin

ICT

This research examines Ireland’s air pollution trends and evaluates whether current reductions in PM2.5, PM10, and NO₂ are sufficient to meet the WHO 2021 Air Quality Guidelines by 2040. Using four years of EPA-validated pollutant data (2020–2023), alongside Building Energy Rating (BER) and national transport datasets, the study applies the CRISP-DM methodology to guide analysis, preprocessing, modelling, and evaluation. Extensive data cleaning and alignment were required due to inconsistent station coverage, varying formats, and missing values. Forecasting models—including Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, SVR, and linear regression—were assessed using MSE, R², and trend significance to project pollutant levels across different Irish …

Customer Service Support. Utilizing Machine Learning To Classify, Prioritize And Summarize Issues., Hoai Nhan Nguyen

ICT

This capstone project investigates the application of machine learning and natural language processing (NLP) to enhance customer support operations through automated ticket classification, prioritization, and summarization. Using the multilingual Customer Support Emails dataset from Kaggle, the project follows the CRISP-DM methodology, performing extensive data cleaning, preprocessing, feature engineering, and class balancing. Five machine learning models—Decision Tree, KNN, LinearSVC, Naive Bayes, and Random Forest—were evaluated using hyperparameter tuning, cross-validation, confusion matrix analysis, and learning curves. LinearSVC demonstrated the strongest performance for both queue and priority classification, achieving accuracies of 89.8% and 81.2% respectively, with consistent generalization across folds. For summarization, extractive …

Player Transfer Market In European Football Using Machine Learning To Analyse The Evolution Of The European Football., Pablo Lopes De Souza Oliveira

ICT

The study uses machine learning to analyse the European football transfer market from 2015 to 2025, revealing patterns in transfer fees and market values influenced by player attributes, highlighting the potential of data-driven insights.

Predicting Early Customer Inactivity In The Banking Sector Using Machine Learning: A Churn Prevention, Ivana Mc Fadden

ICT

Customer churn, when customers stop using a company’s services, is a challenge for the banking sector (Singh et al., 2023). High churn rates often signal poor customer experiences, resulting in revenue losses and increased costs to obtain new clients. Goyal and Srivastava (2015) stress that fostering loyalty through exceptional service and understanding customer needs is important for long-term retention.

This project aims to predict early customer inactivity, an indicator of churn, by using machine learning. Early identification of at-risk customers will allow banks to apply targeted interventions, reduce acquisition costs, and improve customer satisfaction (Singh et al., 2023). By analysing …

Neural Networks Activation Functions And Hybrid Activations Functions Accuracy And Loss Comparison On Small Dataset Against Large Datasets For Classification Problems, Antonio Felipe Cora Martins

ICT

Even on the era of Big Data, small datasets are the reality of many companies and sectors. Many datasets in rare disease diagnosis, custom manufacturing, military sciences, bioengineering, and disaster events are commonly limited in size, making machine learning predictive modelling difficult. Being the Activation Function choice crucial for Neural Networks learning, it raises the question of their effectiveness in such scenarios. This study compares five standard (single) activation functions (Sigmoid, Tanh, ReLU, Leaky ReLU, ELU) and two hybrid variants (one a mix of ReLU plus Tanh and a Learnable Activation Function with a trainable weight (alpha) that balances ReLU …

Big Data Vs Big Law: The Impact Of Big Data And Machine Learning In Anonymising Or Synthesizing Data For Use Across Borders., Kenneth Darker

ICT

This research investigates the viability of anonymization and synthetic data generation in the area of big data so that the data could be shared across borders and exist outside the constraints of privacy laws. These privacy laws are growing around the world to help protect individual identity and prevent open sharing of private data. These privacy laws all provide guidance on how data may be shared and the strict conditions upon how that may occur. Two methods which are growing in popularity are anonymization of data, specifically k-Anonymity, l-Diversity and t-Closeness, and generating synthetic data from a real dataset leveraging …

The Actuarial Applications Of Machine Learning And Big Data In The Life Assurance Industry: Managing Customer Retention And Customer Outcomes By The Application Of Data Science., Brian Cunningham

ICT

Lapses are an issue in the insurance industry in general. They affect a company’s profitability, cash flows and solvency. High levels of lapses can cause reputational damage that could provoke a cycle of even more lapses. It is therefore incumbent on a company to do its utmost to retain the business it has written for the term it was written for.

If a company could predict which of its policies were about to lapse, it could proactively attempt to prevent them by contacting the policyholder and engaging in a discussion to ascertain the likelihood of their choosing to leave. In …

Assemble The Ensemble: A Multi Model Approach For Customer Churn Prediction In The Gambling Industry., Paul Corcoran

ICT

Churn rates are remarkably high in the gambling industry, an extremely competitive landscape coupled with a severe lack of brand loyalty among its customer base makes churn prediction one of the main problems an operator will face. This paper explores the range of possible modelling solutions with a key emphasis on ensemble learning to improve on existing methods. During this exploration, a host of modelling techniques are formulated with a focus on scalability facilitated by Apache Spark distributed computing language. Thirteen variations of models, including single classifiers and ensemble families are evaluated as to their suitability in solving the problem. …

The Use Of Deep Learning Solutions To Develop A Practice Tool To Support Lámh Language For Communication Partners, Gabriel Bueno Pimentel Borges

ICT

This study has proposed an alternative to promote the learning and enhancement of Lámh language for communication partners that support current users by creating a real time detection tool to recognise 20 chosen Lámh signs based on existing studies in the field. This implementation was carried out by generating primary data composed by MediaPipe landmark numpy arrays of 40 frames and 45 repetitions per sign. The Neural Networks were built using the Python library Keras and the applied SVM models were built with the library sklearn. The real time detection was carried out by integrating the mentioned elements with the …

Premier League Results Predictions, Laura Consuegra

ICT

This project applies machine learning techniques to predict outcomes in the English Premier League, one of the most prestigious and widely followed football competitions worldwide. By analysing historical and real-time match data, including performance metrics such as goals scored, shots on target, and cards received, predictive models are developed to forecast match results with higher accuracy. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models and explores the influence of key statistical features on team performance. The findings aim to provide strategic insights for fans, bookmakers, and coaching staff, supporting performance evaluation, tactical decision-making, and a deeper understanding of the factors …

A Comparative Analysis Of Machine Learning And Neural Network Performance In House Price Prediction: Dublin Vs. Other Irish Regions, Diarmuid Carroll

ICT

This research presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and neural network performance in predicting house prices across Ireland’s regional housing markets. It addresses important methodological challenges and offers new empirical insights into how market complexity influences algorithm accuracy and performance. Drawing on 627,294 residential transactions from the Irish Property Price Register (2012–2024), the study applies a dual validation strategy, temporal and stratified sampling, across four regional classifications: Dublin, Other Cities, the Commuter Belt, and Rural areas.

The study makes three main contributions to data analytics theory and practice. First, it identifies and resolves temporal confounding effects in algorithm evaluation. …

Predictive Analytics For Customer Churns In Financial Services., Thant Thiha

ICT

This project presents a customer churn prediction analysis in the telecommunications sector, achieving an ROC-AUC of approximately 0.86 using statistically validated features and interpretable AI models. Key churn drivers identified include the number of products held, customer age, and geographic location. Ensemble models, such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting, provided the highest predictive performance. Ethical AI principles were applied to ensure fairness, transparency, privacy, and accountability. Business insights derived from the analysis inform targeted retention strategies, prioritising multi-product users, specific age groups, and geographic segments. Deployment recommendations include the tuned Random Forest model with ongoing monitoring, governance, and future …

Predicting Repeat Purchases In E-Commerce Using Interpretable Machine Learning, Zahid Bhatti

ICT

This project investigates the prediction of repeat purchase behaviour in e-commerce using machine learning, with a focus on balancing predictive accuracy and interpretability. Large volumes of transactional and behavioural data are analysed to identify customer-level features that drive loyalty and repeat purchases. Various supervised learning models, including Random Forests and Logistic Regression, are evaluated for predictive performance, while SHAP (SHapley Additive Explanations) is employed to provide both global and local interpretability. The study aims to generate actionable insights for customer relationship management and marketing strategy, demonstrating how advanced predictive models can support informed business decisions without sacrificing transparency.

Predicting Customer Churn And Enhancing Retention Strategies Through Machine Learning., Swan Saung Lwin

ICT

Customer Churn is a critical challenge faced by businesses across industries, especially in the digital market. Many companies struggle to predict customer churn accurately and have difficulties in carrying out effective retention strategies. Key challenges include ineffective traditional methods, lack of insights into impact of different services, generalized retention strategies, and the need to have cost-effective retention strategies. This project aims to predict customer churn using machine learning and identify the impact of key services offered by a telecommunication company.

Comparative Evaluation Of Ai-Generated Synthetic Data And Real-World Data Performance In Predictive Analytics, Corey Louise Hughes

ICT

There are growing restraints when it comes to Real World Data (RWD), these include topics such as privacy regulations, ethical concerns, and the cost of collecting the data, and they have drove an interest in AI-generated synthetic data as a potential alternative in predictive analytics. This project examines the possibilities of synthetic data and if it can act as a reliable substitute for RWD in predictive modelling. This project uses Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) to generate synthetic reproductive health data and evaluates its predictive performance against RWD using linear regression and key metrics, including Mean Absolute …

Predicting Customer Churn Using Machine Learning: A Data-Driven Approach, Alessandro Mendes Martins

ICT

This project focuses on predicting customer churn in the telecommunications sector using machine learning. A public dataset was analysed through exploratory data analysis, data cleaning, feature encoding, and scaling to prepare it for modelling. A Logistic Regression model was trained and optimised to identify customers likely to leave the service, achieving a ROC-AUC score of 0.861, with 79% accuracy, 82.3% recall, 51.9% precision, and an F1-score of 0.637. The analysis highlighted key factors influencing churn, including fibre-optic internet, month-to-month contracts, and electronic cheque payments, while longer tenure, two-year contracts, and usage of support services correlated with retention. These insights can …