Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Enhancing Data Generation For National Development In Nigeria: Institutional And Structural Issues1, Olu Ajakaiye

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In this presentation, attention is focused on data generation for the purposes of reasoning, discussing and calculating the status, process and prospects of economic development. Economic development has also been defined in various ways. Again for the present purposes, economic development will be conceived as the process of economic growth and structural transformation (Ajakaiye, 2002). Clearly, data, as a gathered body of facts about the economy, is a basic requirement in the process of economic growth and transformation. Foremost, facts about the economy are necessary in order to appreciate the current state of the economy in terms of growth and …

Fiscal Federalism In Nigeria: A Cluster Analysis Of Revenue Allocation To States And Local Government Areas, 1999 – 2008, Sam O. Olofin, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Bello K. Ajide, Salisu A. Afees, Olalekan S. Akinola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Existing literature on revenue allocation in Nigeria shows more concern for merits and demerits of sharing principles and /or formulae. Several alternatives have been proposed and will continue to be developed to address the unending agitations from beneficiaries. Contrary however, this paper analyzes two items of revenue (statutory and VAT) shared among the states including FCT and all the Local Government Areas (LGAs) between May 1999 and December 2008. The net statutory allocation after deductions was also analyzed. Using Cluster analysis to evaluate revenue allocation in Nigeria, States and LGAs exhibiting similarity in revenue received were grouped and their common …

Bayesian Analysis Of Hypothesis Testing Problems For General Population: A Kullback–Leibler Alternative, Naveen K. Bansal, Gholamhossein Hamedani, Ru Sheng

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

We consider a hypothesis problem with directional alternatives. We approach the problem from a Bayesian decision theoretic point of view and consider a situation when one side of the alternatives is more important or more probable than the other. We develop a general Bayesian framework by specifying a mixture prior structure and a loss function related to the Kullback–Leibler divergence. This Bayesian decision method is applied to Normal and Poisson populations. Simulations are performed to compare the performance of the proposed method with that of a method based on a classical z-test and a Bayesian method based on the …

Meta-Heuristics Analysis For Technologically Complex Programs: Understanding The Impact Of Total Constraints For Schedule, Quality And Cost, Henry Darrel Webb

EMSE Doctoral Projects

Program management data associated with a technically complex radio frequency electronics base communication system has been collected and analyzed to identify heuristics which may be utilized in addition to existing processes and procedures to provide indicators that a program is trending to failure. Analysis of the collected data includes detailed schedule analysis, detailed earned value management analysis and defect analysis within the framework of a Firm Fixed Price (FFP) incentive fee contract.

This project develops heuristics and provides recommendations for analysis of complex project management efforts such as those discussed herein. The analysis of the effects of the constraints on …

A Statistical Model To Determine Multiple Binding Sites Of A Transcription Factor On Dna Using Chip-Seq Data, Rasika Jayatillake

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Protein-DNA interaction is vital to many biological processes in cells such as cell division, embryo development and regulating gene expression. Chromatin Immunoprecipitation followed by massively parallel sequencing (ChIP-seq) is a new technology that can reveal protein binding sites in genome with superior accuracy. Although many methods have been proposed to find binding sites for ChIP-seq data, they can find only one binding site within a short region of the genome. In this study we introduce a statistical model to identify multiple binding sites of a transcription factor within a short region of the genome using the ChIP-seq data. Mapped sequence …

Assessing Movement Of Fish Through Spectral Analysis Of Otolith Life History Scans, Renee Reilly Hoover

OES Theses and Dissertations

The ability to accurately measure movement timing across environmental gradients is fundamental for testing hypotheses in marine ecology that deal with ingress, egress, and migration of fish. Timing and patterns of movement have been estimated using life-history scans of the chemical signatures encoded in fish otoliths (ear stones). I provide a quantitative approach to examining life history scan data using spectral analysis, which retrospectively measures the movement timing for individual fish. Sagittal otoliths from juvenile Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulates) and adult black sea bass (Centropristis striata) were sampled using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry …

Half-Life Learning Curves In The Defense Acquisition Life Cycle, Adedeji B. Badiru

Faculty Publications

Learning curves are useful for assessing performance improvement due to the positive impact of learning. In recent years, the deleterious effects of forgetting have also been recognized. Workers experience forgetting or decline in performance over time. Consequently, contemporary learning curves have attempted to incorporate forgetting components into learning curves. An area of increasing interest is the study of how fast and how far the forgetting impact can influence overall performance. This article introduces the concept of half-life analysis of learning curves using the concept of growth and decay, with particular emphasis on applications in the defense acquisition process. The computational …

Response Surface Optimization Of Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication Depositions Using Design Of Experiments, Patricia A. Quigley

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF³ ) System is a material depositing, layer additive technique that produces three dimensional (3D) parts out of a wide range of metals in high vacuum, using an electron beam and wire feedstock. Screening deposition trials on a titanium alloy, Ti-6Al-4V, at the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) revealed selective vaporization of the aluminum content of linear prototypes when subjected to chemical analysis. In this study, the aluminum content, bead height and bead width output responses were analyzed from a systematic study of the effects that the interactions of the EBF³ processing parameters …

Experimental And Computational Validation And Verification Of The Stokes-Darcy And Continuum Pipe Flow Models For Karst Aquifers With Dual Porosity Structure, Xiaolong Hu, Xiaoming Wang, Max Gunzburger, Fei Hua, Yanzhao Cao

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

In our previous study, we developed the Stokes-Darcy (SD) model was developed for flow in a karst aquifer with a conduit bedded in matrix, and the Beavers-Joseph (BJ) condition was used to describe the matrix-conduit interface. We also studied the mathematical well-posedness of a coupled continuum pipe flow (CCPF) model as well as convergence rates of its finite element approximation. in this study, to compare the SD model with the CCPF model, we used numerical analyses to validate finite element discretisation methods for the two models. using computational experiments, simulation codes implementing the finite element discretisations are then verified. Further …

Causal Mediation In A Survival Setting With Time-Dependent Mediators, Wenjing Zheng, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The effect of an expsore on an outcome of interest is often mediated by intermediate variables. The goal of causal mediation analysis is to evaluate the role of these intermediate variables (mediators) in the causal effect of the exposure on the outcome. In this paper, we consider causal mediation of a baseline exposure on a survival (or time-to-event) outcome, when the mediator is time-dependent. The challenge in this setting lies in that the event process takes places jointly with the mediator process; in particular, the length of the mediator history depends on the survival time. As a result, we argue …

A Prior-Free Framework Of Coherent Inference And Its Derivation Of Simple Shrinkage Estimators, David R. Bickel

COBRA Preprint Series

The reasoning behind uses of confidence intervals and p-values in scientific practice may be made coherent by modeling the inferring statistician or scientist as an idealized intelligent agent. With other things equal, such an agent regards a hypothesis coinciding with a confidence interval of a higher confidence level as more certain than a hypothesis coinciding with a confidence interval of a lower confidence level. The agent uses different methods of confidence intervals conditional on what information is available. The coherence requirement means all levels of certainty of hypotheses about the parameter agree with the same distribution of certainty over parameter …

An Applied Investigation Of Gaussian Markov Random Fields, Jessica Lyn Olsen

Theses and Dissertations

Recently, Bayesian methods have become the essence of modern statistics, specifically, the ability to incorporate hierarchical models. In particular, correlated data, such as the data found in spatial and temporal applications, have benefited greatly from the development and application of Bayesian statistics. One particular application of Bayesian modeling is Gaussian Markov Random Fields. These methods have proven to be very useful in providing a framework for correlated data. I will demonstrate the power of GMRFs by applying this method to two sets of data; a set of temporal data involving car accidents in the UK and a set of spatial …

Xprime-Em: Eliciting Expert Prior Information For Motif Exploration Using The Expectation-Maximization Algorithm, Wei Zhou

Theses and Dissertations

Understanding the possible mechanisms of gene transcription regulation is a primary challenge for current molecular biologists. Identifying transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs), also called DNA motifs, is an important step in understanding these mechanisms. Furthermore, many human diseases are attributed to mutations in TFBSs, which makes identifying those DNA motifs significant for disease treatment. Uncertainty and variations in specific nucleotides of TFBSs present difficulties for DNA motif searching. In this project, we present an algorithm, XPRIME-EM (Eliciting EXpert PRior Information for Motif Exploration using the Expectation-Maximization Algorithm), which can discover known and de novo (unknown) DNA motifs simultaneously from a …

Investigation Of Trends And Predictive Effectiveness Of Crash Severity Models, James E. Mooradian

Master's Theses

This thesis describes analysis using ordinal logistic regression to uncover temporal patterns in the severity level (fatal, serious injury, minor injury, slight injury or no injury) for persons involved in highway crashes in Connecticut, focusing on the demographic split between senior travelers (65 years and over) and non-senior travelers. Existing state sources provide data describing the time and weather conditions for each crash and the vehicles and persons involved over the time period from 1995 to 2009 as well as the traffic volumes and the characteristics of the roads on which these crashes occurred. Findings indicate an overall increase in …

Murine Gut Microbiota Is Defined By Host Genetics And Modulates Variation Of Metabolic Traits, Autumn M. Mcknite, Maria Elisa Perez-Munoz, Lu Lu, Evan G. Williams, Simon Brewer, Penelope A. Andreux, John W. M. Bastiaansen, Xusheng Wang, Stephen D. Kachman, Johan Auwerx, Robert W. Williams, Andrew K. Benson, Daniel A. Peterson, Daniel C. Ciobanu

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

The gastrointestinal tract harbors a complex and diverse microbiota that has an important role in host metabolism. Microbial diversity is influenced by a combination of environmental and host genetic factors and is associated with several polygenic diseases. In this study we combined next-generation sequencing, genetic mapping, and a set of physiological traits of the BXD mouse population to explore genetic factors that explain differences in gut microbiota and its impact on metabolic traits. Molecular profiling of the gut microbiota revealed important quantitative differences in microbial composition among BXD strains. These differences in gut microbial composition are influenced by host-genetics, which …

Foundations Of Inference, Kevin H. Knuth, John Skilling

Physics Faculty Scholarship

We present a simple and clear foundation for finite inference that unites and significantly extends the approaches of Kolmogorov and Cox. Our approach is based on quantifying lattices of logical statements in a way that satisfies general lattice symmetries. With other applications such as measure theory in mind, our derivations assume minimal symmetries, relying on neither negation nor continuity nor differentiability. Each relevant symmetry corresponds to an axiom of quantification, and these axioms are used to derive a unique set of quantifying rules that form the familiar probability calculus. We also derive a unique quantification of divergence, entropy and information.

Estimation Of The Effects Of Parental Measures On Child Aggression Using Structural Equation Modeling, Jordan Daniel Pyper

Theses and Dissertations

A child's parents are the primary source of knowledge and learned behaviors for developing children, and the benefits or repercussions of certain parental practices can be long lasting. Although parenting practices affect behavioral outcomes for children, families tend to be diverse in their circumstances and needs. Research attempting to ascertain cause and effect relationships between parental influences and child behavior can be difficult due to the complex nature of family dynamics and the intricacies of real life. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is an appropriate method for this research as it is able to account for the complicated nature of child-parent …

On Identification Of Natural Direct Effects When A Confounder Of The Mediator Is Directly Affected By Exposure, Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen, Tyler J. Vanderweele

COBRA Preprint Series

Natural direct and indirect effects formalize traditional notions of mediation analysis into a rigorous causal framework and have recently received considerable attention in epidemiology and in the social sciences. Sufficient conditions for identification of natural direct effects were formulated by Judea Pearl under a nonparametric structural equations model, which assumes certain independencies between potential outcomes. A common situation in epidemiology is that a confounder of the mediator is affected by the exposure, in which case, natural direct effects fail to be nonparametrically identified without additional assumptions, even under Pearl's nonparametric structural equations model. In this paper, the authors show that …

Selective Impact Of Hiv Disease Progression On The Innate Immune System In The Human Female Reproductive Tract., Timothy Lahey, Mimi Ghosh, John V. Fahey, Zheng Sheng, Lucy R. Mukura, Yan Song, Susan Cu-Uvin, Kenneth H. Mayer, Peter F. Wright, John C. Kappes, Christina Ochsenbauer, Charles R. Wira

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background

We have previously demonstrated intrinsic anti-HIV activity in cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) from HIV-infected women with high CD4 counts and not on antiretroviral therapy. However, the impact of HIV disease progression on CVL innate immune responses has not been delineated.

Methods

CVL from 57 HIV-infected women not on antiretroviral therapy were collected by washing the cervicovaginal area with 10 ml of sterile normal saline. We characterized subject HIV disease progression by CD4 count strata: >500 cells/µl, 200–500 cells/µl, or <200 cells/µl of blood. To assess CVL anti-HIV activity, we incubated TZM-bl cells with HIV plus or minus CVL. Antimicrobials, cytokines, chemokines and anti-gp160 HIV IgG antibodies were measured by ELISA and Luminex.

Results

CVL exhibited broad anti-HIV activity against multiple laboratory-adapted and transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses, with anti-HIV activity ranging from 0 to 100% …

Adaptive Randomization Designs, Jenna Colavincenzo

Statistics

Adaptive design methodologies use prior information to develop a clinical trial design. The goal of an adaptive design is to maintain the integrity and validity of the study while giving the researcher flexibility in identifying the optimal treatment. An example of an adaptive design can be seen in a basic pharmaceutical trial. There are three phases of the overall trial to compare treatments and experimenters use the information from the previous phase to make changes to the subsequent phase before it begins.

Adaptive design methods have been in practice since the 1970s, but have become increasingly complex ever since. One …

Distributional Properties Of Record Values Of The Ratio Of Independent Exponential And Gamma Random Variables, M. Shakil, M. Ahsanullah

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

Both exponential and gamma distributions play pivotal roles in the study of records because of their wide applicability in the modeling and analysis of life time data in various fields of applied sciences. In this paper, a distribution of record values of the ratio of independent exponential and gamma random variables is presented. The expressions for the cumulative distribution functions, moments, hazard function and Shannon entropy have been derived. The maximum likelihood, method of moments and minimum variance linear unbiased estimators of the parameters, using record values and the expressions to calculate the best linear unbiased predictor of record values, …

Blunt Impact Performance Evaluation Of Helmet Lining Systems For Military And Recreational Use, Jaclyn Siniora, Ryan Taylor, Darren Suey

Industrial Technology and Packaging

With the increasing problem in collegiate athletes experiencing injuries to the brain, different helmet liners where put to the test to see which liner provided athletes the greatest protection under specific conditions.

This senior project evaluates five different liners in football helmets. Each of the helmet liners were tested at three different temperatures: hot, cold, and ambient. Each helmet had seven different impact locations which were put to the test. The project was designed to be used to test ACH military combat liners as well. Due to shipping bottle necks the ACH combat liners have been left to future Cal …

Analysis Of Dietary Patterns Over Freshman Year Of College, Chelsea Lofland

Statistics

This analysis is an investigation of changes in Cal Poly students’ eating habits over freshman year. The motivation behind this was an interest in college students’ lifestyles; college is the first time most students live on their own and it can be an important maturation period. College is stressful, exciting, liberating, and terrifying all at the same time. This distinctive life experience, along with my desire to handle big and messy data, led me to this research question.

The response variable analyzed was food consumption and the explanatory variables were: sex, race, quarter, food group, stress, exercise, BMI, sleep quality …

Predictors Of Hypertension And Prehypertension In Cal Poly Students, Toria Mock

Statistics

This study analyzed predictors of hypertension and prehypertension in Cal Poly students. Hypertension and prehypertension are known to increase the risk of blood clots, plaque buildup, and tissue/organ damage from blocked arteries. Researching predictors of hypertension and prehypertension can help to determine methods of minimizing the probability of hypertension and prehypertension in a patient. Data from the FLASH study was used to analyze associations between possible predictor variables, such as stress and physical activity, and hypertension/prehypertension. BMI, bodyfat, and the interaction between videogames per weekend day and gender were found to be significantly associated with hypertension and prehypertension in Cal …

Change-Point Analysis Of Paired Allele-Specific Copy Number Variation Data, Yinglei Lai

GW Biostatistics Center

The recent genome-wide allele-specific copy number variation data enable us to explore two types of genomic information including chromosomal genotype variations as well as DNA copy number variations. For a cancer study, it is common to collect data for paired normal and tumor samples. Then, two types of paired data can be obtained to study a disease subject. However, there is a lack of methods for a simultaneous analysis of these four sequences of data. In this study, we propose a statistical framework based on the change-point analysis approach. The validity and usefulness of our proposed statistical framework are demonstrated …

Characteristics Of Children With Type 1 Diabetes And Persistent Suboptimal Glycemic Control., Hyuntae Kim, Angelo Elmi, Celia L. Henderson, Fran R. Cogen, Paul B. Kaplowitz

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Objective: This study aims to determine the relationship between the duration of persistent poor glycemic control in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) children and the likelihood of subsequent improvement.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on T1DM patients aged 6-18 years, followed for at least six visits at Children’s National Medical Center (Washington, DC) with at least one hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≥10% after the first year since the initial visit (n=151). Medical records of patients with subsequently improved glycemic control were reviewed (n=39).

Results: Patients aged 12-18 years, females, and Medicaid patients were twice as likely to be in …

Involvement Of Microrna Families In Cancer, Stefan Wuchty, Dolores Arjona, Serdar Bozdag, Peter O. Bauer

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Collecting representative sets of cancer microRNAs (miRs) from the literature we show that their corresponding families are enriched in sets of highly interacting miR families. Targeting cancer genes on a statistically significant level, such cancer miR families strongly intervene with signaling pathways that harbor numerous cancer genes. Clustering miR family-specific profiles of pathway intervention, we found that different miR families share similar interaction patterns. Resembling corresponding patterns of cancer miRs families, such interaction patterns may indicate a miR family’s potential role in cancer. As we find that the number of targeted cancer genes is a naı¨ve proxy for a cancer …

Rank-Based Estimation And Prediction For Mixed Effects Models In Nested Designs, Yusuf K. Bilgic

Dissertations

Hierarchical designs frequently occur in many research areas. The experimental design of interest is expressed in terms of fixed effects but, for these designs, nested factors are a natural part of the experiment. These nested effects are generally considered random and must be taken into account in the statistical analysis. Traditional analyses are quite sensitive to outliers and lose considerable power to detect the fixed effects of interest.

This work proposes three rank-based fitting methods for handling random, fixed and scale effects in k-level nested designs for estimation and inference. An algorithm, which iteratively obtains robust prediction for both scale …

Lifestyle Choices In Relation To Bmi And Blood Pressure, Shawna Perry

Statistics

Cal Poly currently has one of the largest ongoing university health studies in the United States. Launched in Fall 2009, the Cal Poly FLASH study, led by the Kinesiology department and STRIDE, is a longitudinal study that tracks the classes of 2013 and 2014 through online surveys and physical assessments. The data collected covers various areas such as perceived health, lifestyle choices, and actual physical health.

My project analyzed the FLASH data to investigate the relationship between various perceived variables and actual health measures for Cal Poly freshmen. The motivation for this analysis was an interest in both diet and …

Improvement Of Statistical Process Control At St. Jude Medical's Cardiac Manufacturing Facility, Christopher Lance Edwards

Master's Theses

Sig sigma is a methodology where companies strive to reproduce results ending up having a 99.9996% chance their product will be void of defects. In order for companies to reach six sigma, statistical process control (SPC) needs to be introduced. SPC has many different tools associated with it, control charts being one of them. Control charts play a vital role in managing how a process is behaving. Control charts allow users to identify special causes, or shifts, and can therefore change the process to keep producing good products, free of defects.

There are many factories and manufacturing facilities having implemented …