Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Exchange–Rates Volatility In Nigeria: Application Of Garch Models With Exogenous Break, Bala A. Dahiru, Joseph O. Asemota

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines exchange–rate volatility with GARCH models using monthly exchange–rate return series from 1985:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/US dollar return and from 2004:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/British Pounds and Naira/Euro returns. The study compare estimates of variants of GARCH models with break in respect of the US dollar rates with exogenously determined break points. Our results reveal presence of volatility in the three currencies and equally indicate that most of the asymmetric models rejected the existence of a leverage effect except for models with volatility break. Evaluating the models through standard information criteria, volatility persistence and the log likelihood …

The Role Of Central Bank Of Nigeria’S Analytical Balance Sheet And Monetary Survey In Monetary Policy Implementation, Sani I. Doguwa, Sunday N. Essien

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the significance of Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary aggregates in the implementation of monetary policy. The Analytical Balance Sheet and monetary survey are shown to be useful tools in the analysis of monetary and credit developments in the economy. It also discusses the role of the aggregates in monetary policy implementation through the adjusted money multiplier, which explains how policy actions of the CBN influence the broad money supply. Finally, the paper attempts to estimate the Taylor-type monetary policy reaction function for Nigeria using the monetary policy rate and reserve money since December 2006 when the …

Session 4-2-A: Taking The Disorder Out Of Gambling Disorder, Denise F. Quirk, Colin M. Hodgen

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

DSM‐5 Gambling Disorder

A. Persistent and recurrent problematic gambling behavior leading to clinically significant impairment or distress, as indicated by four (or more) of the following in a 12‐month period:

A. Persistent and recurrent maladaptive gambling behavior as indicated by five (or more) of the following:

Session 4-2-C: Dissociating The Roles Of Delay And Probability Discounting In Gambling Behavior, Will Shead, Emad Talisman

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Now or Later?

How would you like a gift?

Now vs. 1 week

Rewards now are worth more than later

- Delayed rewards are discounted

Session 4-1-B: Casino Legalization As An Evolutionary Game -- Who Will Be The Next?, Miao He

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

For the community/governor who has a strong preposition to casino gaming (e.g., gambler, religious group), his/her motivation to participate/accept casino legalization is

∆P_AE_A+t_A>c_î and ∆P_B(R_B+E_B)+t_B>c_Ĵ

What’s the motivation for the other community/governors who are neutral to casino gaming?

How the casino legalization process evolved and finally reached the equilibrium state?

Session 4-1-D: The Ant And The Grasshopper: Western Casino Operators In Macau And Singapore, Sudhir Kale

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Objectives

Understand the impact of market conditions and managerial orientation on employee satisfaction, organizational identification, and service quality in Macau/ Singapore Casino Industry.

Highlight long-term adverse impact of poor service quality on market share and profitability.

Provide guidelines for action.

Session 4-1-D: The Experience Of Lotto 6/49 And The Capacity To Trust: Elements For An Anthropology Of Gambling, Jocelyn Gadbois

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Anthropologists study Lotto 6/49 as an experience.

Lévy-Bruhl tries to compare the magical beliefs of serious gamblers with the magical beliefs of individuals he refers to as the ‘‘primitives’’ (1924).

After that, Henslin studied the superstitions of St.Louis taxi drivers who play craps during their work breaks and compared them to Skinner’s pigeon (1967).

I wanted in my thesis to help anthropology to reconstruct lost knowledge regarding gambling and beliefs about magic in capitalist society.

Session 4-1-C: Social Media Gambling Games: Impact On Young People, Sally Gainsbury, Jeffrey L. Derevensky

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Key concerns for youth

Normalisation & positive impressions of gambling

Misrepresenting the odds of winning

Encouraging transition to real money gambling

Development of problems

Session 4-1-A: The Problem Gambling Center, Robert Hunter

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Provides information and statistics on the Problem Gambling Center.

Discovering Exoplanets Through Hidden Markov Model Analysis, Jon Drobny

Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Research Publications

The goal for the project is to develop a Hidden Markov Model for the detection and characterization of extrasolar planets through the analysis of light curves.

Assessing Methods For Assigning Snps To Genes In Gene-Based Tests Of Association Using Common Variants, Ashley Petersen, Carolina Alvarez, Scott Declaire, Nathan L. Tintle

Faculty Work Comprehensive List

Gene-based tests of association are frequently applied to common SNPs (MAF>5%) as an alternative to single-marker tests. In this analysis we conduct a variety of simulation studies applied to five popular gene-based tests investigating general trends related to their performance in realistic situations. In particular, we focus on the impact of non-causal SNPs and a variety of LD structures on the behavior of these tests. Ultimately, we find that non-causal SNPs can significantly impact the power of all gene-based tests. On average, we find that the “noise” from 6–12 non-causal SNPs will cancel out the “signal” of one causal …

Session 3-4-A: Public Opinion And Problem Gambling, Don Feeney

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

What do we need to know?

How does the public perceive addiction?

Do they stigmatize addiction?

Do they recognize gambling addiction?

Do they understand the causes?

Do they understand the solutions?

Do they know where to go for help?

Do they know preventative factors?

What are they willing to do?

What messages are credible and appealing?

Session 3-4-B: Evaluating The Performance Of Macao’S Gaming Industry, Day-Yang Liu

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The purpose of research

The stringently competitive nature of the casino entertainment market in the Macao necessitates that managers fully utilize knowledge expertise to increase efficiency in operations management.

Therefore, this study employs data envelopment analysis (DEA) model to estimate the efficiency and productivity of the casino entertainment industry in Macao.

Session 3-3-B: The Interplay Between Law, Development And Spillover Effects Of Casino Gaming: Theory And The Asian Evidences, Ricardo Chi Sen Siu

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Taking into consideration of the unique features and practice of casino gaming, the significance of law in the development of this industry, and the onging interactions between law, the industry’s succeeding performance and its spillover effects are generalized and illustrated in this paper. Based on the rationales of law and economics, and the institutional approach to economic analysis, a functional model is constructed to depict the related interplaying forces and the development of casino gaming. In principle, it is shown that business scope and scale of casino gaming is largely defined by law on one hand, and the revisions of …

Session 3-3-A: An Improved Pathways Development Model Of Problem Gambling: A Summary Of 11 Studies In Hong Kong And Macau, Amy Chiu Sau Lam, Alice Chan Ying Ying, Chi Chuen Chan

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

The rationale of this study came from a casual meeting of our supervisor Dr. Chan Chi Chuen and Professor Blaszczynski on a bus after the 2009 Reno conference.

On the bus, C. C. promised Mr. Blaszczynski that he would validate the pathways model in Hong Kong and Macau. And in the next 5 years, Dr. C.C. Chan and his students conducted 11 research projects on problem gambling in Hong Kong and Macau.

Purposes of current study

• To arrive on a summary finding from 11 studies on problem gambling
• To validate the pathways development model proposed by Blaszczynski & Nower …

Session 3-3-C: The National Longitudinal Study Of Gambling Behaviour (Nlsgb): Preliminary Results, Andrew Dellis, Andre Hofmeyr, Harold Kincaid, Don Ross

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

The NLSGB tracked 300 gamblers over a 15-month period.

A comprehensive survey instrument was compiled to analyse factors that might influence changes in risk of gambling problems over time.

The study was conducted in the four major metropolitan areas of South Africa: Johannesburg, Tshwane, Durban and Cape Town. We will discuss the study’s design and implementation and some preliminary results.

Session 3-3-A: The ‘Circles Concept’ Of Gambling Addiction: An Empowered Framework For Change, Harry B. Mayr

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The original ‘Circles Concept of (Gambling) Addiction’ was developed by Harry Mayr in 1982, while working as an addictions counsellor in a community-based health centre. It has always been a ‘user friendly’ concept … applicable and understood by people from all cultures, across all ages, and with or without an addiction issue. Years later, people have informed Mr Mayr how they still remember ‘those circles’, and how the concept helped them.

The ‘Circles Concept of (Gambling) Addiction’ is therefore a concept remembered as much for its visual cues as its verbal explanation – and thus applicable across languages, cognitive and …

Session 3-3-F: Measuring The Price Of Discrimination With Data On Poker Games, Ingo Fiedler

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

Economic theory suggests that discrimination is price sensitive and money an equalizer

This means that discrimination decreases the higher the private costs for the discriminator

Economic reasoning: Discrimination comes at a price for the discriminator

• Example: an employer discriminates against potential employees with a non-white skin tone and thus may miss the best employees who then work for a competitor.
• Imperfect competition leads to rents and rents can be used to discriminate and they can be discrimination in itself. [Jomo, 2003].
• Competition reduces discrimination

Session 3-2-F: Baccarat Solved?, David Sofer

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Provides information and statistics on Baccarat.

Session 3-2-B: What Changing Public Policies Toward Gambling Mean For Gaming Law, I. Nelson Rose

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The Three Waves Of Legal Gambling

First Wave - Colonial period to mid-19th century: Legal Debris: “Lotteries” prohibited in state constitutions and Canada (except Quebec)

Second Wave - Wild West; South after the Civil War , new inventions. Crash - Victorian morality Legal Debris: Statutes prohibit bookmaking, slot machines; U.S. federal and Quebec anti-lottery laws

Third Wave - Depression to present: Legal Debris: Piecemeal legalization by states, provinces

Session 3-1-E: Modeling Change In The Profile Of The Atlantic City Visitor, Brian J. Tyrrell, Israel Posner Ph.D.

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The Atlantic City casino market has faced increasing competition over the past decade, particularly since the introduction of Pennsylvania gaming in 2006. In response to this increased competition, the State of New Jersey, through legislation, created a public private partnership to both redevelop parts of the city and devote significant marketing dollars into shaping the image of the city. The private side of that partnership, the Atlantic City Alliance (ACA), found in their earliest consumer research that Atlantic City’s image as a gaming destination was well established, but that the city was less known for the retail, entertainment and restaurants …

Session 3-1-E: Segmenting Slot Machine Players: A Factor-Cluster Analysis, Stowe Shoemaker, Dina Marie Zemke

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Overall objectives of the study:

Understand the following aspects of slot players:

– Demographic profile

– Motivations to play

– Behavioral characteristics while playing

– Factors important in choosing a game to play

– Attitudes toward progressives

– Desire for themed games

Session 3-1-E: Anatomy Of A Jackpot: Characteristics Of Purchasers Of Large Jackpot Lottery Tickets, Todd Maki, Don Feeney

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Jackpot “Run” & Survey Design

Record breaking Powerball jackpot

Started at $40 million on Oct 6, 2012

Rolled 15 times to reach $550 million Nov 28, 2012

MN Sold $25.2 million worth of tickets

Sales from all lotteries totaled $1.3 billion

Internet Survey

1,000 Minnesota adults

In the field Dec 14 to 18

Took, on average, about 10 minutes to complete

Representative of the general population (age and gender)

Conducted by Ipsos

Session 3-1-C: Gambling Behaviors Among American College Student-Athletes: Results From The 2012 National Collegiate Athletic Association Study, Tom Paskus, Jeffrey L. Derevensky, Caroline Temcheff

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Why Is the NCAA Concerned about Student-Athlete Gambling?

Student-athlete well-being

Contest integrity

Singular Ergodic Control For Multidimensional Gaussian-Poisson Processes, J. L. Menaldi, M. Robin

Mathematics Faculty Research Publications

Singular control for multidimensional Gaussian-Poisson processes with a long-run (or ergodic) and a discounted criteria are discussed. The dynamic programming yields the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, which are discussed. Full details on the proofs and further extensions are left for coming works.

Ensemble-Based Methods For Forecasting Census In Hospital Units, Devin C. Koestler, Hernando Ombao, Jesse Bender

Dartmouth Scholarship

The ability to accurately forecast census counts in hospital departments has considerable implications for hospital resource allocation. In recent years several different methods have been proposed forecasting census counts, however many of these approaches do not use available patient-specific information. In this paper we present an ensemble-based methodology for forecasting the census under a framework that simultaneously incorporates both (i) arrival trends over time and (ii) patient-specific baseline and time-varying information. The proposed model for predicting census has three components, namely: current census count, number of daily arrivals and number of daily departures. To model the number of daily arrivals, …

Session 2-4-C: Addressing The Related Epidemics Of Financial/Mathematical Illiteracy And Adolescent Problem Gambling, William S. Mallios, R. R. Mallios

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Information and statistics addressing the epidemics of financial and mathematical illiteracy and adolescent problem gambling.

Session 2-4-G: The Minnesota Gambling Survey At 20, Don Feeney, Todd Maki, Brian L. Malecha

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The Minnesota Gambling Survey

Begun in 1993

Telephone survey taken by St. Cloud State University

Sample size 2,000 to 2,400

Cell phone component added in 2010

Session 2-4-G: Gambling Segmentation Studies A General Approach To Segmentation For Various Gambling Agencies, Paul Lauzon, Don Feeney

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

What is Segmentation?

A segmentation groups a market or population into meaningful subgroups

Segment members share characteristics and market influences that cause them to have similar product and/or service needs

Each segment is unique from the other segments

Session 2-4-E: Financial Evaluation Commonalities And Distinctions Expressed By 10-Ks With Two Libertarian Hospitality Segments: Casino Gaming And Gentlemen’S Clubs, David J. Paster

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Premise

Libertarian hospitality ventures are significantly and fundamentally different than current common hospitality fields such as lodging and restaurants due to their distinct business model composition.