Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Early Lane Change Prediction For Mixed Traffic With V2x Communication, Muhammed Fatih Koc, Nouman Ashraf, Pramod Pathak, Sachin Sharma

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

Lane change prediction is essential for ensuring road safety and effective decision-making in autonomous vehicles (AVs). AVs will probably take several decades to penetrate new vehicle sales. As AVs and human-driven vehicles (HDVs) will coexist in traffic for the long term, AVs must understand the lane change intentions of surrounding HDVs. Lane changing is a critical manoeuvre that can cause a crash if it is performed late or if incorrect lane adjustments are made. Therefore, forecasting surrounding vehicles’ lane change intentions in advance is essential to ensure safe driving in mixed traffic environments having both AVs and HDVs. The unpredictability …

Interpretable Ai In Education: A Comparison Of Glass-Box Models For Predicting Student Success, Jan Glazenborg

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

This Master’s thesis addresses early identification of first-year Computer Science students at risk of underperformance by comparing inherently interpretable (“glass-box”) predictive models with the existing Naïve Bayes–based PreSS tool. The PreSS dataset was originally compiled by Quille & Bergin from 692 first-year CS1 students across eleven institutions in Ireland and Denmark, who completed surveys on programming and mathematics backgrounds, gaming habits and a short programming test four to six hours into the course. Seventeen normalized features capturing demographic, academic and behavioural factors were extracted. In this thesis, four machine learning models are evaluated: Naïve Bayes, explainable boosting machines, automatic piecewise …

Pros & Cons Of Reinforcement Learning - Illustrated By The Problem Of Controlling Gantry Robots, Horst Zisgen

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

In this talk a solution for the dynamic scheduling of flexible flow shop systems using gantry robots for material handling by means of simulation and Reinforcement Learning (RL) is presented. Subsequently the pros and cons of a RL approach are briefly discussed and illustrated at the robot control problem.

Survival Predictions From Classification Algorithms – Concepts And Application To Graft And Patient Survival After Kidney Transplantation, Antje Jahn

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

Clinical prediction models are developed to predict long-term patient outcomes following medical interventions. One example motivating this research is the prediction of graft and patient survival after kidney transplantation, using data from the German organ transplantation registry. A practical issue in this context is to deal with incomplete information due to right-censoring, which arises when patients are lost to follow-up or enter the study at different times, resulting in varying durations of observation. This is particularly relevant in the registry data, where follow-up is frequently incomplete or irregular. While traditional survival analysis methods handle censoring by modeling the hazard function, …

Pathology’S Place In Understanding The Bias And Inequalities In Women’S Healthcare, Andrea Heaney, Eugene Hickey, Emma Murphy

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

Women’s healthcare is a complex, multifaceted issue with both historic and implicit biases, along with biological differences between men and women. With the advancement of AI tools in healthcare and the potential for biased data to create biased models, it is vital to consider how women are represented in data. Previously conducted semi-structured semantic interviews with clinicians were analysed via Braun and Clark’s method of thematic analysis. The analysis of these interviews yielded the following themes: Gender Influencing Health, Pregnancy, Social Factors, General Health, Treatment, Training, and Research. These themes highlight that context is key to understanding the biases in …

Impact Of Spatial Diversity And Subject Variability On Wifi-Based Human Activity Recognition, Amany Elkelany, Robert J. Ross, Susan Mckeever

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

In recent years, WiFi-based Human Activity Recognition (HAR) has gained substantial attention due to the ubiquity of WiFi infrastructure and advancements in wireless communication. Unlike camera-based systems that raise privacy concerns or wearable sensors that require user compliance, WiFi-based HAR provides a noninvasive and practical alternative that operates seamlessly with existing infrastructure. WiFi-based HAR leverages fluctuations in wireless signals, particularly Channel State Information (CSI), to passively detect and classify human activities. WiFi-based HAR models often achieve high accuracy in a single environment but suffer significant performance drops when applied to new environments due to variations in spatial settings, human movement, …

Optimising Ai For Chemical Imaging: Benchmarking Performance Against Foundation Models For Task-Specific Applications In Histopathology, Rahul Suresh, Mohd Rifqi Rafsanjani, Karin Jirstrom, Arman Rahman, William M. Gallagher, Aidan Meade

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

The integration of chemical imaging with artificial intelligence presents a compelling route toward fully digital, label-free histopathology, yet it also introduces notable challenges. While deep learning models from domains like machine vision, digital pathology, and remote sensing are readily accessible, they frequently struggle to generalize effectively to chemical imaging data, as highlighted in recent research [1]. Additionally, although foundational pathological models show potential for advancing AI-based histopathological diagnostics and prognostics, our preliminary assessments suggest they may fall short in addressing the broad spectrum of classification tasks encountered in clinical settings. In this presentation, we highlight some recent published work from …

Automated Approaches To Interpreting And Explaining Machine Learning Models, Tilak Chandrashekar, Tarry Singh, Maged Shaban

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

This paper proposes a novel framework for automating ML model interpretation and explainability across different applications with an emphasis on transparency, trust, and human-centric decisionmaking assistance. Although ML models, particularly advanced structures such as deep neural networks, possess superior predictive powers, their interpretability tends to be obscure, and thus their application in sensitive or regulated domains is impeded. Current XAI techniques, though promising, tend to be post-hoc and are not scalable for real-time or large-scale deployments. This study addresses such concerns by presenting an automated, modular pipeline where interpretation techniques are embedded in the process of developing the ML model. …

Tracking The Kinetics Cellular Glycolysis And Glutaminolysis Pathways Using Vibrational Spectroscopy, Combined With Multivariate Statistical And Machine Learning Approaches For Data Mining, Zohreh Mirveis, Nithin Patil, Hugh Byrne

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

Understanding dynamic metabolic processes within living cells is crucial for gaining insights into cellular function and disease mechanisms. The kinetics of glycolysis and glutaminolysis pathways play significant roles, as alterations in their activity have been linked to various disorders, including cancer and mental health conditions such as bipolar disorder. These pathways therefore hold potential as biomarkers for disease diagnosis and therapy. However, real-time monitoring of their kinetics remains challenging due to the lack of suitable non-invasive techniques. Current gold-standard fluxomics approaches, such as mass spectrometry, are destructive to cells and thus unsuitable for time-resolved studies. In this study, we evaluate …

Benchmarking Energy And Performance Of Parallel Machine Learning Models Using Hardware And Software Power Meters, Urooj Asgher, Tania Malik

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

The growing reliance on machine learning algorithms across domains such as healthcare, transportation, and finance has led to their increased deployment on high-performance computing platforms. While performance optimization remains a central concern, energy efficiency is emerging as a critical design consideration, particularly in light of global sustainability goals. This study presents a comparative analysis of the energy consumption and performance of serial and parallel implementations of four machine learning algorithms, K-means clustering, Ant Colony Optimization, Logistic Regression, and Random Search. Experiments were conducted on an HPC testbed using both hardware-based and software-based power meters to measure energy consumption. The results …

Partitioning Around Medoids On Product Spaces: A Clustering Approach For Cylindrical Data, Yahia Hammami, Houyem Demni, Amor Messaoud, Giovanni C. Porzio

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

Clustering is a common unsupervised task in data analysis and machine learning. It deals with finding clusters of objects that are characterized by the highest similarity within the same cluster and the highest dissimilarity between different clusters. One of the most used algorithms in clustering is the popular Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), also known as k-medoids [4, 5]. The algorithm imposes the center of clusters to be some of the data points, and it looks for a minimal value of the sum of the dissimilarity to all the objects. One of the recognized properties of such a method is its …

Improving Node Classification For Graphs Withweak Feature Signals: A Similarity-Entropy Aggregation Approach, Brian Daniel Bernhardt, Chiara Marciano, Mario Rosario Guarracino

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have established themselves as powerful tools for graph-structured data. However, when feature separability among nodes is low, conventional neighborhood aggregation strategies often result in performance degradation due to over-smoothing and noisy information propagation. In this work, we introduce a novel GNN framework that refines the aggregation process by integrating feature similarity and neighborhood entropy into node message passing. Unlike standard models that uniformly aggregate neighbor information, this new model dynamically adjusts neighbor influence, prioritizing nodes with high similarity and low entropy. We evaluate the model on synthetic graphs generated using the Stochastic Block Model (SBM), varying …

Dealing With Large Data Sets: The Data Nugget Subset Selection Approach, Vipin Kumar, Simona Balzano, Giovanni C. Porzio

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

Analysing big data has always been a major issue because its massive volume poses significant challenges for traditional analytical techniques. When the number of instances is extremely large, existing approaches become computationally infeasible due to the complexity of many algorithms, along with memory and time constraints inherent in processing large datasets. In such cases, using a subset of the data is considered a more practical solution, and analyses are typically performed over a simple random sample drawn from the entire dataset. Various subsampling methods have been proposed to address these issues. However, they often fall short in producing representative subsamples …

A Statistical Approach To Portfolio Optimization Using Copula-Garch Models For European Investments, Jegors Fjodorovs

SAML-25 Workshop on Statistical and Machine Learning

This study explores portfolio optimization using copula functions and GARCH models, focusing on the European stock market. Traditional mean-variance methods often miss dynamic dependencies and tail risks. By applying copula-GARCH models—particularly the Student’s t copula with eGARCH—we better capture volatility asymmetries and tail dependencies. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is used to evaluate downside risk across 10,000 simulated portfolios using high-performance computing. Results show that copula- GARCH models, especially eGARCH, consistently outperform traditional methods in risk-adjusted returns, offering improved risk management.

Fixed Points In Linear Regression, David L. Farnsworth

Articles

There is a set of points in the plane whose elements correspond to the observations that are used to generate a simple least-squares regression line. Each value of the independent variable in the observations matches up with one of these points, which are called pivot or fixed points. The coordinates of the fixed points are derived, and the properties of the points are explored. All points in the plane that yield each of the fixed points are found. The role that fixed points play in regression diagnostics is investigated. A new mechanical device that uses linkages to model the role …

Ceno: Non-Uniform, Segment And Parallel Zero-Knowledge Virtual Machine, Tianyi Liu, Zhenfei Zhang, Yuncong Zhang, Wenqing Hu, Ye Zhang

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

In this paper, we explore a novel Zero-knowledge Virtual Machine (zkVM) framework leveraging succinct, non-interactive zero-knowledge proofs for verifiable computation over any code. Our approach divides the proof of program execution into two stages. In the first stage, the process breaks down program execution into segments, identifying and grouping identical sections. These segments are then proved through data-parallel circuits that allow for varying amounts of duplication. In the subsequent stage, the verifier examines these segment proofs, reconstructing the program's control and data flow based on the segments' duplication number and the original program. The second stage can be further attested …

(R2119) New Algorithms For Independent Component Analysis Based On A General Class Of Dependence Criteria, Fatemeh Asadi, Hamzeh Torabi, Hossein Nadeb

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

The objective function of numerous well-established Independent Component Analysis (ICA) algorithms calculate based on specific dependence criteria. This study introduces a distinctive dependence criterion based on the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for characterizing the independence between two random variables and some of its properties are examined. Then, we propose a class of ICA algorithms based on the introduced dependence criterion. The performance of the algorithm is systematically compared to some previous similar algorithms. The results indicate that the suggested algorithm have fruitful performance rather than some similar previous known algorithms. Subsequently, the proposed algorithms are applied to real-time series data, …

"Maine Office Of Behavioral Health’S Section 17 Self-Direction Pilot Program: Executive Summary", Rachel M. Gallo Mph, Sarah Goan, Emma Schwartz

Publications

The Self-Directed Care (SDC) pilot program in Maine tested a service delivery model that allows individuals with mental health needs to manage a personal budget, supported by a trained broker to purchase goods and services that best support their recovery goals. Funded through the American Rescue Plan Act, the Maine Office of Behavioral Health implemented the nine-month pilot in three counties, partnering with Alpha One, Maine’s Center for Independent Living, to provide reloadable debit cards for participant purchases. The program aimed to promote autonomy, satisfaction, and stability among adults receiving Section 17 Medicaid services while informing decisions about the model’s …

"Maine Office Of Behavioral Health’S Section 17 Self-Direction Pilot Program: Evaluation Report", Rachel M. Gallo Mph, Sarah Goan, Emma Schwartz, Aaron Rose

Publications

Maine’s Office of Behavioral Health conducted a nine-month pilot of Self-Directed Care to support adults with serious mental illness in Cumberland, Hancock, and Washington Counties. The program allowed eligible participants receiving MaineCare Section 17 services to manage a personal budget, guided by trained Support Brokers from Alpha One, to purchase goods and services that would advance their recovery goals. The pilot aimed to increase participant choice, autonomy, and flexibility in managing their mental health needs. Support Brokers worked closely with participants and Case Managers to develop and approve individualized purchase plans, monitor expenditures, and ensure alignment with treatment objectives. A …

Statistical Investigations Of Strategies In The Game Ecosystem, Dylan Li

Master's Theses

This work provides a probability-based analysis of strategies in the board game Ecosystem. Ecosystem is a turn-based multiplayer tiling game, where players take turns picking a wildlife card from a limited pool of cards then placing that card on their personal 4x5 grid. The objective of the game is to place the wildlife cards to maximize your score, as each card’s scoring condition depends on the presence or absence of certain cards surrounding it. The goal of this project is to determine optimal strategies for tiling your grid using techniques such as simulation to find optimal grid arrangements and clustering …

Bandwagon Behavior In Major League Baseball, Daniel E. Erro

Master's Theses

This study investigates “bandwagon” behavior among Major League Baseball (MLB) fans by analyzing Google search interest data from 2004 to 2019. Drawing on publicly available information from Google Trends, the analysis explores how fluctuations in search activity align with team performance during both the regular season and postseason. Hierarchical linear models are used to estimate expected levels of fan interest based on team performance and market characteristics. Deviations from these expectations during the regular season are interpreted as evidence of bandwagon or anti-bandwagon behavior. A drop-off in interest following playoff elimination is also examined to capture shifts in fan attention …

Babies, Babes, And Bayes: Modeling Mother-Infant Feedings With Bayesian Multilevel Hidden Markov Models, Zachary G. Felix

Master's Theses

Understanding the interaction between mother and baby during feeding is critical for the long-term development health of the baby. Overfeeding can lead to later obesity, while underfeeding can lead to malnutrition. In a recent study, the behaviors exhibited by mother-infant dyads across multiple ages of infants have been observed and coded according to the Baby Behaviors when Satiated (BABES) coding scheme. However, creating models using the data obtained from this coding is no simple task since the data coding is continuous, multivariate, and longitudinal in nature. The specific model utilized for these data is a hidden Markov model, since there …

Radiation-Induced Cardiotoxicity In Hypertensive Salt-Sensitive Rats: A Feasibility Study, Dayeong An, Alison Kriegel, Suresh N. Kumar, Heather A. Himburg, Brian Fish, S. Klawikowski, Daniel B. Rowe, Marek Lenarczyk, John Baker, El Sayed H. Ibrahim

Mathematical and Statistical Science Faculty Research and Publications

Radiation therapy (RT) plays a vital role in managing thoracic cancers, though it can lead to adverse effects, including significant cardiotoxicity. Understanding the risk factors like hypertension in RT is important for patient prognosis and management. A Dahl salt-sensitive (SS) female rat model was used to study hypertension effect on RT-induced cardiotoxicity. Rats were fed a high-salt diet to induce hypertension and then divided into RT and sham groups. The RT group received 24 Gy of whole-heart irradiation. Cardiac function was evaluated using MRI and blood pressure measurements at baseline, 8 weeks and 12 weeks post-RT. Histological examination was performed …

Topodino: Self-Supervised Topological Representation Learning For Neuronal Morphologies, Yasser Binbisher

Master's Theses

Neuronal cell types are categorized by transcriptomic identity, yet their morphological heterogeneity defies this classification. In response, researchers have adopted unsupervised graph representation learning as a tool to reveal morphological variation within single-class transcriptomic types. However, the complex geometry of neuronal morphology—especially long axons and dense dendrites—challenges graph neural networks, which struggle with message propagation across extended structures. To mitigate this, current approaches enforce sub-sampling on neuronal graphs and omit axons entirely, sacrificing critical biological features for computational efficiency. To overcome this trade-off, this thesis introduces TopoDINO, a self-supervised, topology-aware representation learning model designed to preserve the full hierarchical organization …

How Argentina Won The 2022 Fifa Men's World Cup: A Data Story, Aniruddha Parthasarathy

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This project analyzes Argentina’s 2022 FIFA Men’s World Cup win using open-source football (soccer) data. The project evaluates the team’s performance at a micro-level across three domains: without possessing the ball, possessing the ball and the team’s in-game management tactics. A statistical framework, i.e., multiple linear regression modeling, was used to identify the five key defensive actions influencing the Argentinian team’s intensity of pressure applied, and visualized by heatmaps and time-segmented plots. More specifically, an Expected Threat (xT) analysis quantified the threat or danger from passes and progressive carries (moving the ball at least 10 meters), revealing that Lionel Messi’s …

Data Driven Analysis Of Samara Seed Kinematics And Dynamics, Shashwat Sparsh

Master's Theses

Samara Seeds are a class of fruit most famously belonging to the Acer species and are characterized by their single-bladed geometry and their auto-rotation response during descent. This steady-state auto-rotation response is the subject of aerodynamic analysis which aim to quantify the performance. The period prior to the beginning of steady-state auto-rotation is classified as the transition regime and has not been the subject of intense scrutiny.

This thesis employs a data-driven approach to analyzing the kinematic and dynamic response of these seeds during both the transition and auto-rotation stages of flight to quantify the performance with respect to the …

Welfare Implication Of Alternative Tax Rates Adjustment Policy In Nigeria: A Dsge Analysis, Umar B. Ibrahim, Isah F. Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study sets out to determine the desirable policy adjustment in the tax rate for Nigeria that ensures the least welfare cost. A calibrated small open-economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model of the Nigerian economy is applied to achieve this objective. Within this framework, we examined the impact of an increase in value-added tax (VAT) rate from 7.5 to 15 percent on key macroeconomic variables relative to the impact of an increase in company income tax (CIT) rate from 30 to 35 percent on macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we examined the welfare costs of the increases in the …

A Bayesian Approach To Grappa Parallel Fmri Image Reconstruction Increases Snr And Power Of Task Detection, Chase J. Sakitis, Daniel B. Rowe

Mathematical and Statistical Science Faculty Research and Publications

In fMRI, capturing brain activation during a task is dependent on how quickly k-space arrays are obtained. Acquiring full k-space arrays, which are reconstructed into images using the inverse Fourier transform (IFT), that make up volume images can take a considerable amount of scan time. Undersampling k-space reduces the acquisition time but results in aliased, or “folded,” images. GeneRalized Autocalibrating Partial Parallel Acquisition (GRAPPA) is a parallel imaging technique that yields full images from subsampled arrays of k-space. GRAPPA uses localized interpolation weights, which are estimated prescan and fixed over time, to fill in the missing …

Property Testing Ai: An Efficient Frontier, Paul Sopher Lintilhac

Dartmouth College Ph.D Dissertations

In this dissertation, we take a step towards addressing the major problem of a lack of standardized and rigorous approaches to testing and evaluation of AI systems. Taking inspiration from both the fields of Property Testing and Property Based Testing (for programs), we develop a novel taxonomy of partially overlapping classes of properties of AI systems, including simple properties, compound properties, higher order properties, data relation properties, and architecture-utility properties. We argue that this taxonomy categorizes a diverse set of AI traits -- including accuracy, fairness, robustness, monotonicity, point-wise and global privacy properties, sensitivity, and more -- according to the …

Investigating Social Presence In Collaborative Keys For Asynchronous Courses, Lily P. Cook

Master's Theses

Asynchronous virtual courses have become increasingly popular in the years following the global Covid-19 pandemic. These courses, with no set meeting schedule, offer flexibility to both students and instructors, but pose challenges for developing a collaborative learning environment. The Community of Inquiry framework (Rourke et al., 1999) identifies three essential components in an online course necessary to foster a collaborative environment- teaching presence, cognitive presence, and social presence. Social presence is especially impacted in asynchronous learning settings, which presents challenges for the students to display their personalities and connect with the community. This study investigates Collaborative Keys (CKs), structured collaborative …