Statistics and Probability Commons^™

The Price Is Right: Analyzing Bidding Behavior On Contestants’ Row, Paul Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

The TV game show “The Price is Right” features a bidding auction called Contestant’s Row that rewards the player (out of four) who bids closest to an item’s value without overbidding. By exploring 903 game outcomes from the 2000–2001 season, we show how player strategies are significantly inefficient, and compare the empirical results to probability outcomes for optimal bid strategies found in a recent study. Findings show that the last bidder would do better using the naïve strategy of bidding a dollar more than the highest of the three bids. We apply the EM algorithm in a novel way to …

A Statistical Analysis Of The Roulette Martingale System: Examples, Formulas And Simulations With R, Peter Pflaumer

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Some gamblers use a martingale or doubling strategy as a way of improving their chances of winning. This paper derives important formulas for the martingale strategy, such as the distribution, the expected value, the standard deviation of the profit, the risk of a loss or the expected bet of one or multiple martingale rounds. A computer simulation study with R of the doubling strategy is presented. The results of doubling to gambling with a constant sized bet on simple chances (red or black numbers, even or odd numbers, and low (1 – 18) or high (19 – 36) numbers) and …

Responding To Some Challenges Posed By The Re-Identification Of Anonymized Personal Data, Herman T. Tavani, Frances S. Grodzinsky

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

In this paper, we examine a cluster of ethical controversies generated by the re-identification of anonymized personal data in the context of big data analytics, with particular attention to the implications for personal privacy. Our paper is organized into two main parts. Part One examines some ethical problems involving re-identification of personally identifiable information (PII) in large data sets. Part Two begins with a brief description of Moor and Weckert’s Dynamic Ethics (DE) and Nissenbaum’s Contextual Integrity (CI) Frameworks. We then investigate whether these frameworks, used together, can provide us with a more robust scheme for analyzing privacy concerns that …

Kelly Fraction Estimation For Multiple Correlated Bets, William Chin

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

It is well-known that expected portfolio growth is maximized by maximizing

expected logarithmic utility. This investment criterion is known as Kelly betting.

It has many optimality properties but is considered to be risky. Blackjack

teams and other advantage gamblers practice a fraction of the Kelly optimal to

decrease risk. Some hedge fund managers are thought to practice according to

Kelly principles. We use a continuous multivariate Geometric Brownian motion

model and present an interval estimate for the historical fraction for a portfolio

of correlated bets, possibly including a risk-free asset. Historical data comes

from a range of sources and the …

Dietary Inflammatory Index And Odds Of Colorectal Cancer And Colorectal Adenomatous Polyps In A Case-Control Study From Iran, Pegah Rafiee, Nitin Shivappa, James R. Hébert, Saeede Jaafari Nasab, Alireza Bahrami, Azita Hekmatdoost, Bahram Rashidkhani, Amir Sadeghi, Mohammad Houshyari, Ehsan Hejazi

Faculty Publications

Background: Chronic inflammation is implicated in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC) and its precursor; colorectal adenomatous polyps (CAP). Some dietary factors are important triggers for systemic inflammation. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the association between the dietary inflammatory index (DII^®) and the risk of CRC and CAP in an Iranian case-control study. Methods: 134 newly diagnosed CRC patients, 130 newly diagnosed CAP patients, and 240 hospitalized controls were recruited using convenience sampling. Energy-adjusted DII (E-DII) scores were computed based on dietary intake assessed using a reproducible and valid 148-item food frequency questionnaire. Logistic regression models …

Probabilistic And Statistical Prediction Models For Alzheimer’S Disease And Statistical Analysis Of Global Warming, Maryam Ibrahim Habadi

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The importance and applicability of data-driven statistical models have increased significantly. This current study, we have utilized statistical techniques in interdisciplinary research, including environmental and health.

Environmentally, global warming is considered one of the critical issues facing our planet. It is the increase in average global temperatures caused mostly by increases in Carbon Dioxide CO₂. The excessive rise of carbon dioxide from the average level as the side effect of the industrial revolution has a significant impact on blocking the heat and increase the temperature within the Earth’s atmosphere. Based on the record of total CO₂ emissions …

Detection Of Sand Boils From Images Using Machine Learning Approaches, Aditi S. Kuchi

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Levees provide protection for vast amounts of commercial and residential properties. However, these structures degrade over time, due to the impact of severe weather, sand boils, subsidence of land, seepage, etc. In this research, we focus on detecting sand boils. Sand boils occur when water under pressure wells up to the surface through a bed of sand. These make levees especially vulnerable. Object detection is a good approach to confirm the presence of sand boils from satellite or drone imagery, which can be utilized to assist in the automated levee monitoring methodology. Since sand boils have distinct features, applying object …

Forward Selection Via Distance Correlation, Ty Adams

Mathematical Sciences Technical Reports (MSTR)

No abstract provided.

Advances In Measurement Error Modeling, Linh Nghiem

Statistical Science Theses and Dissertations

Measurement error in observations is widely known to cause bias and a loss of power when fitting statistical models, particularly when studying distribution shape or the relationship between an outcome and a variable of interest. Most existing correction methods in the literature require strong assumptions about the distribution of the measurement error, or rely on ancillary data which is not always available. This limits the applicability of these methods in many situations. Furthermore, new correction approaches are also needed for high-dimensional settings, where the presence of measurement error in the covariates adds another level of complexity to the desirable structure …

Reaching Out To Behavioral Science Audiences Via Meta-Analysis, Bruce E. Blaine

Statistics Faculty/Staff Publications

Exposing students to meta-analysis supports ASA Curriculum Guidelines regarding the importance of data science, working with real and unusual data, diverse approaches to statistical models, and building relationships with allied disciplines. This poster present some of the benefits to students from taking an undergraduate meta-analysis course. The course is a 300-level statistics elective (class size: 12-18) that enrolls statistics majors and students from social and allied health science majors who are working on a data science minor. The course assumes one prior statistics course, and is taught using R. Benefits to students include: learning how to read primary research papers …

Samples, Unite! Understanding The Effects Of Matching Errors On Estimation Of Total When Combining Data Sources, Benjamin Williams

Statistical Science Theses and Dissertations

Much recent research has focused on methods for combining a probability sample with a non-probability sample to improve estimation by making use of information from both sources. If units exist in both samples, it becomes necessary to link the information from the two samples for these units. Record linkage is a technique to link records from two lists that refer to the same unit but lack a unique identifier across both lists. Record linkage assigns a probability to each potential pair of records from the lists so that principled matching decisions can be made. Because record linkage is a probabilistic …

The Long-Run Effects Of Tropical Cyclones On Infant Mortality, Isabel Miranda

Master's Theses

In the United States alone, each tropical cyclone causes an average of $14.6 billion worth of damages. In addition to the destruction of physical infrastructure, natural disasters also negatively impact human capital formation. These losses are often more difficult to observe, and therefore, are over looked when quantifying the true costs of natural disasters. One particular effect is an increase in infant mortality rates, an important indicator of a country’s general socioeconomic level. This paper utilizes a model created by Anttila-Hughes and Hsiang, that takes advantage of annual variation in tropical cyclones using annual spatial average maximum wind speeds and …

Characterizing The Permanence And Stationary Distribution For A Family Of Malaria Stochastic Models, Divine Wanduku

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Decision Trees And Their Application For Classification And Regression Problems, Obinna Chilezie Njoku

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

Tree methods are some of the best and most commonly used methods in the field of statistical learning. They are widely used in classification and regression modeling. This thesis introduces the concept and focuses more on decision trees such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART) used for classification and regression predictive modeling problems. We also introduced some ensemble methods such as bagging, random forest and boosting. These methods were introduced to improve the performance and accuracy of the models constructed by classification and regression tree models. This work also provides an in-depth understanding of how the CART models are constructed, …

Measuring Clinical Weight Loss In Young Children With Severe Obesity: Comparison Of Outcomes Using Zbmi, Modified Zbmi, And Percent Of 95th Percentile, Carolyn Bates

Research Days

No abstract provided.

Selecting Maximally-Predictive Deep Features To Explain What Drives Fixations In Free-Viewing, Matthias Kümmerer, Thomas S.A. Wallis, Matthias Bethge

MODVIS Workshop

No abstract provided.

Predictive Performance Of Existing Population Pharmacokinetic Models Of Tacrolimus In Pediatric Kidney Transplant Recipients, Alenka Chapron

Research Days

No abstract provided.

Quantifying Sleep Architecture For Pediatric Hypersomnia Conditions, Alicia K. Colclasure

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Market Research On Student Concert Attendance At Bgsu's College Of Musical Arts, Mary Solomon

Honors Projects

Bowling Green State University boasts a well established College of Musical Arts which holds concerts performed by esteemed faculty, prestigious guest artists, and students. The school hosts these events in Kobacker Hall and Bryan Recital Hall which can accommodate up to 800 and 250 audience members, respectively. However, performances in Kobacker hall only fill one- fourth of the 800 seats, on average. Why is this so? This project aims to investigate the factors that influence students’ decisions to attend concerts at the College of Musical Arts (CMA). By methodology of survey research and statistical analysis, this project will look into …

Mapping In The Humanities: Gis Lessons For Poets, Historians, And Scientists, Emily W. Fairey

Open Educational Resources

User-friendly Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is the common thread of this collection of presentations, and activities with full lesson plans. The first section of the site contains an overview of cartography, the art of creating maps, and then looks at historical mapping platforms like Hypercities and Donald Rumsey Historical Mapping Project. In the next section Google Earth Desktop Pro is introduced, with lessons and activities on the basics of GE such as pins, paths, and kml files, as well as a more complex activity on "georeferencing" an historic map over Google Earth imagery. The final section deals with ARCGIS Online …

Prospective Evaluation Of A Population Pharmacokinetic Model Of Pantoprazole For Obese Children, Alenka Chapron

Research Days

No abstract provided.

Black Swamp Pub And Bistro Analysis, Sara Aniol

Honors Projects

The Black Swamp Pub and Bistro is a full-service restaurant located in the Union on the Bowling Green State University Campus. We mainly do sit-down service, but we also do take-out orders and have a full bar with draft beers as well as mixed drinks. Our menu tends to change a lot, with new additions as well as some of the items being deleted. My goal of this project is to try to give some insight on the patterns that are too big to see with day-to-day operations as well as give some recommendations for the future that is backed …

Self-Driving Cars: Evaluation Of Deep Learning Techniques For Object Detection In Different Driving Conditions, Ramesh Simhambhatla, Kevin Okiah, Shravan Kuchkula, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

Deep Learning has revolutionized Computer Vision, and it is the core technology behind capabilities of a self-driving car. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are at the heart of this deep learning revolution for improving the task of object detection. A number of successful object detection systems have been proposed in recent years that are based on CNNs. In this paper, an empirical evaluation of three recent meta-architectures: SSD (Single Shot multi-box Detector), R-CNN (Region-based CNN) and R-FCN (Region-based Fully Convolutional Networks) was conducted to measure how fast and accurate they are in identifying objects on the road, such as vehicles, pedestrians, …

Examining The Relationship Between Pre-Collegiate Educational Experiences And Religious Affiliation, Erica Augustyniak

Honors Projects

This paper explores the relationship between the type of school students experienced before college and how that schooling affected the students’ religious affiliation. The specific types of schools examined are public and private schools with private schools being further divided into religious and non-religious private schools. I explore the differences in religious importance among several groups including students who attended Catholic schools and those who did not, students who attended religious schools for varying lengths of time (low, medium, high, and no involvement), and students who had a choice in the schools they attended and those who did not. I …

Disparities In Prostate Cancer Survival In Appalachian Kentucky: A Population-Based Study, Zin W. Myint, Richard O'Neal, Quan Chen, Bin Huang, Robin C. Vanderpool, Peng Wang

Internal Medicine Faculty Publications

Introduction: Prostate cancer (PC) is the most common male cancer in the USA. When comparing the incidence and mortality rates of PC, the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results data of 2005–2014 show that Appalachian Kentucky had a lower incidence (113/100 000 v 137/100 000) but a higher mortality rate (23.8% v 21.8%) when compared to non-Appalachian Kentucky. The aim of this study was to further characterize the survival disparities of PC between Appalachian and non-Appalachian Kentucky.

Methods: All stages of PC patients diagnosed between 2007 and 2011 were collected through the Kentucky Cancer Registry. Baseline characteristics and survival outcomes were …

Analyzing Two-Year College Student Success Using Structural Equation Modeling, Jessica Taylor

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Capstones

The goal of this study is to more fully understand the scope of community college student success using the principles of mindset, engagement, and college readiness. Using structural equation modeling ensures this study is able to measure the combined effects these concepts have on student success, group differences, and the combined model of student success. Findings suggest student success can be significantly impacted by self-belief and mindset behaviors that can outweigh the initial effect of academically under-prepared students. Groups included in this study are non-traditional students, minority populations, first generation students, and Pell eligible students.

Predictive Validity Of A New Self-Report Measure Of Individual Skin Type Through Characterization Of Skin Melanin Using Reflectance Photospectroscopy, Mark Sanchez, Lisa Marriott, Teala Alvord, R. Samatham, S. Chang

Student Research Symposium

In the realm of research and dermatology, the Fitzpatrick Skin Type scale (FST) has been the gold standard of measurement to classify sun sensitivity for human’s skin. This scale is based on an individual’s dermal reaction to ultraviolet exposure (Parrish, et al., 1974; Fitzpatrick, 1975; Pathak, et al., 1976; Fitzpatrick, 1988). It was assumed in science as well as popular culture that individuals with darker skin were less susceptible to issues related to UV damage of their skin. More recent research (Eilers, et al., 2013) suggests that while melanin affords some skin protection, damage can still occur that may result …

Upper Record Values From Extended Exponential Distribution, Devendra Kumar, Sanku Dey

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Some recurrence relations are established for the single and product moments of upper record values for the extended exponential distribution by Nadarajah and Haghighi (2011) as an alternative to the gamma, Weibull, and the exponentiated exponential distributions. Recurrence relations for negative moments and quotient moments of upper record values are also obtained. Using relations of single moments and product moments, means, variances, and covariances of upper record values from samples of sizes up to 10 are tabulated for various values of the shape parameter and scale parameter. A characterization of this distribution based on conditional moments of record …

Bias Reduction In Machine Learning Classifiers For Spatiotemporal Analysis Of Coral Reefs Using Remote Sensing Images, Justin J. Gapper

Computational and Data Sciences (PhD) Dissertations

This dissertation is an evaluation of the generalization characteristics of machine learning classifiers as applied to the detection of coral reefs using remote sensing images. Three scientific studies have been conducted as part of this research: 1) Evaluation of Spatial Generalization Characteristics of a Robust Classifier as Applied to Coral Reef Habitats in Remote Islands of the Pacific Ocean 2) Coral Reef Change Detection in Remote Pacific Islands using Support Vector Machine Classifiers 3) A Generalized Machine Learning Classifier for Spatiotemporal Analysis of Coral Reefs in the Red Sea. The aim of this dissertation is to propose and evaluate a …

Measurement Of Bystander Actions In Violence Intervention Evaluation: Opportunities And Challenges, Heather M. Bush, Samuel C. Bell, Ann L. Coker

Biostatistics Faculty Publications

Purpose of Review

This review discusses design and methodological challenges specific to measuring bystander actions in the evaluation of bystander-based violence prevention programming. “Bystanders” are defined as people who are present immediately before, during and/or after a violent event, but are not a perpetrator nor the intended victim. Bystander-based violence prevention programs seek to prevent or mitigate violent events by empowering bystanders to intervene on acts of violence and social norms that promulgate violence.

Recent Findings

Effective bystander-based violence prevention programs demonstrate increased bystander intentions, actions, and attitudes [Bringing in the Bystander: Banyard et al. J Community Psychol. 2007;35:463-481; iSCREAM: …