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Articles 901 - 930 of 1026

Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis

Do Hedge Funds Deliver Alpha? A Bayesian And Bootstrap Analysis, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo Apr 2007

Do Hedge Funds Deliver Alpha? A Bayesian And Bootstrap Analysis, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a robust bootstrap procedure, we find that top hedge fund performance cannot be explained by luck, and that hedge fund performance persists at annual horizons. Moreover, we show that Bayesian measures, which help overcome the short-sample problem inherent in hedge fund returns, lead to superior performance predictability. Relative to sorting on OLS alphas, sorting on Bayesian alphas yields a 5.5 percent per year increase in the alpha of the spread between the top and bottom hedge fund deciles. Our results are robust, and relevant to investors, as they are neither confined to small funds, nor driven by incubation bias, …

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Realized Daily Variance Of S&P500 Cash Index: A Revaluation Of Stylized Facts, Shirley J. Huang, Qianqiu Liu, Jun Yu Mar 2007

Realized Daily Variance Of S&P500 Cash Index: A Revaluation Of Stylized Facts, Shirley J. Huang, Qianqiu Liu, Jun Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper, the realized daily variance is obtained from intraday transaction prices of the S&P 500 cash index over the period from January 1993 to December 2004. When constructing realized daily variance, market microstructure noise is taken into account using a technique proposed by Zhang, Mykland, and Ait-Sahalia (2005). The time series properties of realized daily variance are compared with those of variance estimates obtained from parametric GARCH and stochastic volatility models. Unconditional and dynamic properties concerning the realized daily variance are examined, the relationship between realized variance and returns is investigated, and the stylized facts concerning realized daily …

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On Stiffness In Affine Asset Pricing Models, Shirley Junying Huang, Jun Yu Feb 2007

On Stiffness In Affine Asset Pricing Models, Shirley Junying Huang, Jun Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Economic and econometric analysis of continuous-time affine asset pricing models often necessitates solving systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) numerically. Explicit RungeûKutta (ERK) methods have been suggested to solve these ODEs both in the theoretical finance literature and in the financial econometrics literature. In this paper we show that under many empirically relevant circumstances the ODEs involve stiffness, a phenomenon which leads to some practical difficulties for numerical methods with a finite region of absolute stability, including the whole class of ERK methods. The difficulties are highlighted in the present paper in the context of pricing zero-coupon bonds as well …

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A Cardan’S Discriminant Approach To Predicting Currency Crashes, Benedict Seng Kee Koh, Wai Mun Fong, Fabrice Chan Feb 2007

A Cardan’S Discriminant Approach To Predicting Currency Crashes, Benedict Seng Kee Koh, Wai Mun Fong, Fabrice Chan

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper models large swings in exchange rates by introducing nonlinearity via the generalized normal (GEN) distribution [Lye, J.N., Martin, V.L., 1993. Robust estimation, nonnormalities and generalized exponential distributions. Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, 261-267]. As the distribution allows for bimodality, a switch between modes may give rise to currency crashes. A statistic known as Cardan's discriminant, based on the shape parameters of the GEN, is used to detect bimodality. The Cardan's discriminant is found to reliably predict currency crashes for eight emerging countries and generate relatively low false signals for stable currencies.

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Liquidity, Credit Risk And Pricing Of Corporate Bond, Xiaoli Sun Jan 2007

Liquidity, Credit Risk And Pricing Of Corporate Bond, Xiaoli Sun

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Employing a comprehensive database on transactions of corporate bonds issued by corporations, agencies and financial institutions, we compare the different liquidity measures--bid-ask spread, zero-return percentage, Amihud illiquidity factor for the corporate bond market. The criteria of judging is based on the explanatory power of different liquidity measures in determining yield spread over the benchmark curve (equivalent-maturity Treasury bond or notes). The conclusion is that liquidity plays a role in determining corporate bond yield spread. There are significant differences in the explanatory power of the different liquidity measures; among the liquidity measures, zero-return percentage works best. Preliminary findings, based on the …

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Synthetic Collateral Debt Obligation Pricing, Zhanyong Liu Jan 2007

Synthetic Collateral Debt Obligation Pricing, Zhanyong Liu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Portfolio credit products, such as CDO and Single Tranche CDO (STCDO) have gained their popularity in financial industry. The key problem facing by the financial engineers is how to price these portfolio credit derivatives, especially how to model the dependent default structure. Copula model proposed by Li (2000) is widely used in practice. Comparing with simulation, factor copula model and conditional independent framework provide good balance between accuracy and computational efficiency, but it is hard to achieve good performance if sticking to normal distribution. There are a few ways to improve it: introducing Levy distributions, using generic copula functions, and …

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The Predictability Of Overnight Information, Zhuo Zhong Jan 2007

The Predictability Of Overnight Information, Zhuo Zhong

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

By decomposing close to close returns into close to open returns (overnight returns) and open to close returns (daytime returns), we test the predictability of overnight information, which is captured by absolute values of close to open returns, on daytime return volatility. Applying the stochastic volatility model, we find that overnight price changes contain important information to predict daytime volatility. The predictive power is highest at market opening and declines gradually over the trading day. Moreover, the predictive power is higher for inactive traded stocks than for actively traded stocks.

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Periodically Collapsing Bubbles In The Asian Emerging Stock Markets, Ako Doffou Jan 2007

Periodically Collapsing Bubbles In The Asian Emerging Stock Markets, Ako Doffou

WCBT Faculty Publications

This paper investigates empirically the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in the Asian emerging stock markets using the Enders-Siklos (2001) momentum threshold autoregressive model. As explained in Bohl (2003), this non-linear time series technique can be used to analyze bubble driven run-ups in stock prices followed by a crash in a non- cointegration framework with asymmetric adjustment. This technique offers a more potent insight in the stock prices behavior than can possibly be obtained using conventional non-cointegration tests. The empirical findings for ten Asian emerging stock markets from 1993 to 2005 refute the bubble hypothesis.

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Abnormal Trading Volume, Stock Returns And The Momentum Effects, Ying Zheng Jan 2007

Abnormal Trading Volume, Stock Returns And The Momentum Effects, Ying Zheng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper intends to study the intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversal of stock prices by investigating the informational role of unusual trading volume for winner and loser stocks. I argue that unusual trading volume has different implications for winner and loser stocks. Specifically, high trading volume for losers is driven by purchases made by informed investors; while high trade volume for winners could be driven by either information or representativeness bias or both. The arguments are tested in the paper by showing that in the short run, losers/winners with high abnormal trading volume outperform losers/winners with low abnormal trading volume; …

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Do Warrants Lead The Underlying Stocks And Index Futures?, Ying Kui Lin Jan 2007

Do Warrants Lead The Underlying Stocks And Index Futures?, Ying Kui Lin

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The lead-lag relation between options and stocks has been a subject of controversy for years with conflicting findings in the literature. In this thesis, we present an intuitive method to examine the lead-lag relation, if any, in the tick-by-tick data of covered warrants and their underlying stocks or underlying index futures. Our method is non-parametric and needs no assumptions which are critical to the regression-based methods. We find that the electronically traded warrants do not lead stocks or index futures; the movements in the warrants' quotes provide little information about the quotes of the underlying stocks or index futures. Instead, …

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Interest Rate Uncertainty And Stock Market Volatility, Jincai Xu Jan 2007

Interest Rate Uncertainty And Stock Market Volatility, Jincai Xu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The reason for volatility changing over time is still open. As stated in the extant papers uncertainty of Macroeconomic variable plays more important role in explaining the time varying of volatility than the volatility of Macroeconomic variable itself. In this paper we illustrate this with exploring the relationship between stock market volatility and the Interest Uncertainty. In the paper, we take the uncertainty of the decision of FOMC meeting as the uncertainty of interest rate. As we know, asset price is a tool for people to express their belief about the state of the economy, when uncertainty is high, a …

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On The Calibration Of The Libor Market Model, U Lagunzad Demelinda Jan 2007

On The Calibration Of The Libor Market Model, U Lagunzad Demelinda

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis presents a study of LIBOR market model calibration. In particular, the study builds on the prevailing calibration methodologies in an attempt to find a method that simultaneously recovers implied volatility and forward rate correlations structures from market prices of plain vanilla options. In order to ensure that complex derivative pricing and hedging requirements are jointly addressed, the study extends the performance analysis of calibration methods from a static level of goodness-of-fit with market prices test, to a dynamic level of approximation to next period's LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) dynamics when tested on a series of market prices. …

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What Explains Credit Default Swaps Bid-Ask Spread?, Yaru Chen Jan 2007

What Explains Credit Default Swaps Bid-Ask Spread?, Yaru Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The pace at which the Credit default swaps (CDS) has been growing since its inception topped all projections. Despite the rapid growth, there is still room for enhancement of liquidity in the CDS market. Asymmetric information is another concern of investors in CDS market, however, some literature addressed that it may not be as serious as regarded. Bid-ask spreads is commonly used as a proxy of both liquidity and asymmetric information. Our empirical study confirms that CDS bid-ask spread has explanatory power to CDS premium. We then investigate the liquidity component in CDS bid-ask spreads. We use the bond age, …

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Risky Debt-Maturity Choice Under Information Asymmetry, Chunchi Wu, Sheen Liu Jan 2007

Risky Debt-Maturity Choice Under Information Asymmetry, Chunchi Wu, Sheen Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The traditional equilibrium models of signaling with debt-maturity require transaction costs by firms when raising new capital. In this paper, we propose a new model that has no such requirement. We demonstrate that a separating equilibrium of debt-maturity choice exists under a much more general condition, once accounting for the interactions between borrowers and lenders. The model is able to explain the observed complex financial structure. It is found that callable debt functions much like short-term debt, and serial debt similar to long-term debt. In equilibrium, high-quality firms issue short-term debt, and low-quality firms issue long-term debt.

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Implication Of Comprehensive Income Disclosure For Future Earnings And Analysts' Forecasts, Jong-Hag Choi, Yoonseok Zang Dec 2006

Implication Of Comprehensive Income Disclosure For Future Earnings And Analysts' Forecasts, Jong-Hag Choi, Yoonseok Zang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This paper examines the association of comprehensive income with subsequent period net income as well as analysts’ earnings forecasts. Our results support the notion that comprehensive income is incrementally useful in predicting subsequent period changes in net income. We also document that comprehensive income is associated with analysts’ earnings forecast revisions and forecast errors. The evidence is consistent with analysts’ failure to fully utilize the information disclosed in comprehensive income. The result suggests that analysts revise their year t+1’s forecast downward when comprehensive income is smaller than net income but they do not revise the forecast upward when comprehensive income …

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The Relationship Between The Value Effect And Industry Affiliation, John C. Banko, C. Mitchell Conover, Gerald R. Jensen Sep 2006

The Relationship Between The Value Effect And Industry Affiliation, John C. Banko, C. Mitchell Conover, Gerald R. Jensen

Finance Faculty Publications

We examine industry affiliation and the relationship between stock returns and book‐to‐market equity (the value effect). The robustness of the value effect is supported as a significant value premium is shown to exist in 15 of 21 industries. Both industry and firm‐level value effects are identified; however, the firm‐level effect is the more prominent of the two. Further, the value effect is shown to be strongest in value industries and weakest in growth industries. Finally, we show evidence consistent with the claim that the value premium is due to investors requiring higher returns from firms in distressed conditions.

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Which Daily Price Is Less Noisy?, Christopher Ting Sep 2006

Which Daily Price Is Less Noisy?, Christopher Ting

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The daily efficient price is the price that would prevail if the market were frictionless. I show that volume-weighted average price (VWAP) provides a less noisy estimate for the unobservable efficient price as compared to the closing price. The variance of daily returns computed with VWAPs is smaller than that computed with closing prices. The difference between these two realized variances is economically significant. The volatility of log closing price change tends to understate the beta risk and Sharpe ratio. A higher noise level in the closing price leads to derivative prices that favor option and volatility-related swap writers.

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Is Stock Price Rounded For Economic Reasons In The Chinese Market, Yan He, Chunchi Wu Sep 2006

Is Stock Price Rounded For Economic Reasons In The Chinese Market, Yan He, Chunchi Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates whether trading and quoting prices are rounded for both economic and cultural reasons on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in China. We find that the close, bid, and ask prices of domestic shares are rounded to the nearest 10s and 5s for economic reasons, and the last decimal point of prices clusters on 8 for cultural reasons. The cross-sectional variation in 10-cent and 5-cent rounding can be well explained by price and inverse of square root of trading volume, whereas the clustering on 8 can hardly be ascribed to economic variables. The cross-sectional variation in execution …

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Personal Taxes, Endogenous Default, And Corporate Bond Yield Spreads, Sheen X. Liu, Howard Qi, Chunchi Wu Jun 2006

Personal Taxes, Endogenous Default, And Corporate Bond Yield Spreads, Sheen X. Liu, Howard Qi, Chunchi Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Term structure models have often been criticized for failing to explain satisfactorily the yield spread between corporate and Treasury bonds. A potential problem is that the personal tax effect is ignored in these models. In this paper, we employ a structural model to investigate the role of personal taxes on both debt and equity returns in capital structure decisions and assess their impact on corporate bond yield spreads. It is shown that personal taxes affect the firm's optimal capital structure, and the tax premium explains a substantial portion of yield spreads, especially for high-grade bonds. The predictive ability of the …

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Do Accurate Earnings Forecasts Facilitate Superior Investment Recommendations?, Roger Loh, G. Mujtaba Mian May 2006

Do Accurate Earnings Forecasts Facilitate Superior Investment Recommendations?, Roger Loh, G. Mujtaba Mian

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find that analysts who issue more accurate earnings forecasts also issue more profitable stock recommendations. The average factor-adjusted return associated with the recommendations of analysts in the highest accuracy quintile exceeds the corresponding return for analysts in the lowest accuracy quintile by 1.27% per month. Our findings provide indirect empirical support for valuation models in the accounting and finance literatures (e.g., Ohlson, 1995) that emphasize the role of future earnings in predicting stock price movements. Our results also suggest that imperfectly efficient markets reward information gatherers, such as security analysts, for their costly activities in generating superior earnings forecasts.

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An Experimental Examination Of The House Money Effect In A Multi-Period Setting, Lucy Ackert, Narat Charupat, Bryan K. Church, Richard Deaves Apr 2006

An Experimental Examination Of The House Money Effect In A Multi-Period Setting, Lucy Ackert, Narat Charupat, Bryan K. Church, Richard Deaves

Faculty Articles

There is evidence that risk-taking behavior is influenced by prior monetary gains and losses. When endowed with house money, people become more risk taking. This paper is the first to report a house money effect in a dynamic, financial setting. Using an experimental method, the authors compare market outcomes across sessions that differ in the level of cash endowment (low and high). Their experimental results provide strong support for a house money effect. Traders' bids, price predictions, and market prices are influenced by the amount of money that is provided prior to trading. However, dynamic behavior is difficult to interpret …

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The Impact Of Enterprise Risk Management On The Internal Audit Function, Mark S. Beasley, Richard Clune, Dana Hermanson Feb 2006

The Impact Of Enterprise Risk Management On The Internal Audit Function, Mark S. Beasley, Richard Clune, Dana Hermanson

Faculty Articles

This exploratory study provides evidence about factors associated with the overall impact of enterprise risk management (ERM) on the internal audit function’s activities. Based on responses from 122 organizations in several countries, we find that ERM has the greatest impact on internal audit’s activities when (a) the organization’s ERM process is more completely in place, (b) the CFO and audit committee have called for greater internal audit activity related to ERM, (c) the chief audit executive’s (CAE) tenure is longer, (d) the organization is in the banking industry or is an educational institution, and (e) the internal audit function has …

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Under-Pricing And Long-Run Performance Of Initial Public Offerings In Developing Markets, Sze Wei Daniel Ong Jan 2006

Under-Pricing And Long-Run Performance Of Initial Public Offerings In Developing Markets, Sze Wei Daniel Ong

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The transition from being a private company to a public one is one of the most important events in the life of a firm. It is also one of particular interest to institutional investors, and the transition is facilitated through the initial public offering (IPO) process. The IPO provides a fresh source of capital that is critical to the growth of the firm and provides the founder and other shareholders such as venture capitalists a liquid market for their shares. From an institutional investor's perspective, the IPO provides an opportunity to share in the rewards of the growth of the …

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Information Value Of Credit Ratings In Asia Ex-Japan Markets, Chen Zhou Jan 2006

Information Value Of Credit Ratings In Asia Ex-Japan Markets, Chen Zhou

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This study investigates the information value of credit ratings by exploring the relationship between ratings and security price. Unlike previous studies, we concentrate on the major markets ex-Japan in Asia. We begin with an investigation of rating reclassification as well as credit watch placement events by three leading international rating agencies. We show that markets with differing level of sophistication behave differently. Specifically, South Korea and Hong Kong are found to respond in a similar manner. Indonesia shows possible ign of information leakage. In the cases of Malaysia and Thailand, significant and positive equity price responses exist for upgrades, suggesting …

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The Information Efficiency Of The Corporate Bond Market, Cheng Ying Jan 2006

The Information Efficiency Of The Corporate Bond Market, Cheng Ying

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The link between asset prices and information fundamentals as embodied in news announcement effects is an extremely, if not the most, important area amongst current research in market microstructure. The lack of adequate transaction data posts an obstacle in this research. In this thesis, based on a valuable intraday transaction-by-transaction dataset for U.S. corporate bonds, we first examine the impact of public information contained in the macro-economic news and firm-specific information contained in corporate earnings annoucements on the prices of both corporate bonds and stocks. We find that both bonds and stocks react significantly to public news and firm-specific information, …

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Capital Structure Dynamics And Stock Returns, Jie Cai, Zhe Zhang Jan 2006

Capital Structure Dynamics And Stock Returns, Jie Cai, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Many finance theories predict that the capital structure affects firm value, which implies that the changes in leverage have an impact on stock returns. Most of the existing literature however has been focusing on the determinants of the capital structure. Using a sample of U.S. public firms during 1975-2002, we document a significantly negative effect of leverage changes on next-quarter stock returns. This effect remains significant after controlling for other firm characteristics such as ROE, book-to-market, firm size, and past returns. We propose and test several hypotheses to explain the observed effect. We find that the negative effect is stronger …

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Determinants Of Intra-Day Stock Price Change And Asymmetric Information, Christopher Hian Ann Ting Dec 2005

Determinants Of Intra-Day Stock Price Change And Asymmetric Information, Christopher Hian Ann Ting

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper presents a synthesized model of asymmetric information. An empirical analysis of more than 1,400 NYSE common stocks shows that trade direction is more important than volume in revealing the asymmetry. There is also evidence to suggest that signed duration reflects informed trading activity. We use the proposed measure of information asymmetry to study daily changes in the level of informed trading and find that earnings announcements narrow the information gap between the informed and the uninformed. On average, information asymmetry is largest at the beginning of the trading day and it decreases monotonically toward the closing bell. More …

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The Implied Jump Risk Of Libor Rates, Kian Guan Lim, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka Oct 2005

The Implied Jump Risk Of Libor Rates, Kian Guan Lim, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines implied parameters from options on LIBOR futures. Jump-diffusion models are found to offer superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance when compared to their pure diffusion counterpart. The need to incorporate stochastic jump magnitudes into LIBOR dynamics is also documented. In addition, empirical evidence reveals that the jump component in LIBOR rates is important for pricing their derivatives. Furthermore, variation in jump risk often coincides with Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and a small subset of macroeconomic announcements.

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The Choice Of Trading Venue And Relative Price Impact Of Institutional Trading: Adrs Versus The Underlying Securities In Their Local Markets, Chakravarty Sugato, Christine X. Jiang, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana Oct 2005

The Choice Of Trading Venue And Relative Price Impact Of Institutional Trading: Adrs Versus The Underlying Securities In Their Local Markets, Chakravarty Sugato, Christine X. Jiang, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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Calibration Of The Structural Model Of Corporate Bond Spreads, Lerner Peter, Chunchi Wu Oct 2005

Calibration Of The Structural Model Of Corporate Bond Spreads, Lerner Peter, Chunchi Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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