Portfolio and Security Analysis Commons^™

Cover & Front Matter

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Start: Overcoming Remaining Challenges, Elizabeth Zolotukhina

Journal of Strategic Security

During the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and VladimirPutin, the governments of Russia and the United States could not agreeon how to codify their balance of strategic offensive nuclear forces after the existing Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty (START) expired onDecember 5, 2009.1 The United States and Russia are currently engagedin negotiations to replace START with a new treaty before the end of this year.

Effects Of International Institutional Factors On Earnings Quality Of Banks, Chee Yeow Lim, Gerald Lobo, Kanagaretnam Kiridaran

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

No abstract provided.

The Geography Of Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article analyzes the relationship between the risk-adjusted performance of hedge funds and their proximity to investments using data on Asia-focused hedge funds. I find, relative to an augmented Fung and Hsieh (2004) factor model, that hedge funds with a physical presence (head or research office) in their investment region outperform other hedge funds by 3.72% per year. The local information advantage is pervasive across all major geographical regions, but is strongest for emerging market funds and funds holding illiquid securities. These results are robust to adjustments for fund fees, serial correlation, backfill bias, and incubation bias. I show also …

Institutional Investors And The Informational Efficiency Of Prices, Ekkehart Boehmer, Eric K. Kelley

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a broad panel of NYSE-listed stocks between 1983 and 2004, we study the relation between institutional shareholdings and the relative informational efficiency of prices, measured as deviations from a random walk. Stocks with greater institutional ownership are priced more efficiently, and we show that variation in liquidity does not drive this result. One mechanism through which prices become more efficient is institutional trading activity, even when institutions trade passively. But efficiency is also directly related to institutional holdings, even after controlling for institutional trading, analyst coverage, short selling, variation in liquidity, and firm characteristics.

Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty And Momentum, Bing Han, Dong Hong, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Momentum arises from the investor gradually learning about the relative accuracy of the information sources and updating their weights. Empirical tests validate the model's prediction of stronger …

Price Multiples As Indicators Of Stock Price Movement: Evidence From The 21st Century, Jason Zamichiei

Honors Scholar Theses

This paper examines the use of price multiples to predict stock returns. The price to earnings, price to sales, and price to book value multiples are regressed against annual stock returns to determine if a relation between the magnitude of the multiples and returns exists. The results indicate that there are relations between low price to earnings and price to sales multiples and positive returns. I find no evidence that the price to book value multiple can be used to develop a stock buying strategy.

The Importance Of Intelligence In Combating A Modern Insurgency, Kevin Reamer

Journal of Strategic Security

Throughout history the world has been plagued by insurgencies. While the underlying causes of each new insurgency have been different, they are all similar in certain areas. This similarity entails that the effective countering of an insurgency can be turned into a science with a set of guidelines to follow based on conditions on the ground. Guidelines are important because insurgencies are flexible and to defeat them the counterinsurgency must be equally flexible if not more flexible. Good intelligence is critical to the success of an insurgency. With their small, poorly equipped forces, the leaders of insurgencies need to know …

Film Reviews, Bart Bechtel

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Cover & Front Matter

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Targeted Killing: Self-Defense, Preemption, And The War On Terrorism, Thomas Byron Hunter

Journal of Strategic Security

This paper assesses the parameters and utility of “targeted killing” in combating terrorism and its role within the norm of state self-defense in the international community. The author’s thesis is that, while targeted killing provides states with a method of combating terrorism, and while it is “effective” on a number of levels, it is inherently limited and not a panacea. The adoption and execution of such a program brings with it, among other potential pitfalls, political repercussions. Targeted killing is defined herein as the premeditated, preemptive, and intentional killing of an individual or individuals known or believed to represent a …

Al-Qaeda In The Lands Of The Islamic Maghreb, Gregory A. Smith

Journal of Strategic Security

This paper is organized into four chapters that focus on the terrorist group Al Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The four chapters examine different facets of the collective environment that have allowed AQIM to succeed and even thrive at times. The first chapter begins with Algeria’s war of independence with the French. The second chapter focuses on the nomadic Tuareg people. It seeks to show how the Tuaregs were deprived by French occupiers and how European colonization cost the Tuaregs access to vital trade routes used for centuries. The third chapter will very briefly examine Algeria’s …

Fragility: The Next Wave In Critical Infrastructure Protection, Allan Mcdougall

Journal of Strategic Security

In North America today, we are about to embark on a significant effort to repair, or even upgrade, many aspects of our infrastructure. Many of these efforts are linked to economic recovery packages. Others are based on sheer need. The challenge for decision makers and planners involves ensuring that scarce economic resources are put to their best use. Understanding the concept of fragility plays a pivotal part in reaching that understanding.Fragility, like many other systems—particularly Information Technology (IT ) systems—works on the concept of subjects and objects. Subjects are those entities that seek to exploit the services (or capacity) offered …

Book Reviews, Edward J. Hagerty, Ed Urie

Journal of Strategic Security

Afghanistan: Transition Under Threat. By Geoffrey Hayes and Mark Sedra, editors.

Enemies of Intelligence: Knowledge & Power in American National Security. By Richard K. Betts.

Comparing Lodging Reits Using Dupont Analysis: Evaluating Shareholder Equity, John Richard Kane Pellika

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

This research paper compares lodging REITs using DuPont analysis. The study examined United States publicly traded lodging REITs’ balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements between the quarterly periods of 12/31/1997 to 12/31/2005. Lodging REITs have to adhere to the REIT status guidelines, 90 percent of their taxable income must be distributed as dividends to shareholders and at least 75 percent of their income must come from real estate. Lodging REITs do not have government requirements on how a firm must efficiently manage its operations through financial leverage. The results indicate that there is a disparity between individual lodging …

Institutional Trading Frictions, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Pankaj K. Jain

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose and empirically examine a comprehensive measure of institutional trading frictions to include the dimensions of price impact, quantity of execution, return dynamics, speed of execution or order splitting, and trading commissions. Our empirical analysis reveals that various hidden components of institutional trading frictions such as adverse selection and clean-up costs are persistent and could add significantly to previously measured directly observable components of transaction costs. Our simultaneous system of equations accounts for the endogeniety in institutional order aggressiveness based on potentially superior information as well as order splitting strategies in the implementation stage to reduce transaction costs. Order …

Extreme Events And The Copula Pricing Of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities, Zhanyong Liu, Gang-Zhi Fan, Kian Guan Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), as a portfolio-based financial product, have gained great popularity in financial markets. This paper extends Childs, Ott and Riddiough’s (J Financ Quant Anal, 31(4), 581–603, 1996) model by proposing a copula-based methodology for pricing CMBS bonds. Default on underlying commercial mortgages within a pool is a crucial risk associated with CMBS transactions. Two important issues associated with such default—extreme events and default dependencies among the mortgages—have been identified to play crucial roles in determining credit risk in the pooled commercial mortgage portfolios. This article pays particular attention to these two issues in pricing CMBS bonds. Our …

Institutional Investors, Past Performance, And Dynamic Loss Aversion, Paul G. J. O'Connell, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a proprietary database of currency trades, this paper explores the effects of trading gains and losses on risk-taking among large institutional investors. We find that institutional investors, unlike individuals, are not prone to the disposition effect. Instead, institutions aggressively reduce risk following losses and mildly increase risk following gains. This asymmetry is more pronounced later in the calendar year and among older and more experienced funds. We show that such performance dependence is consistent with dynamic loss aversion (Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2001)) and overconfidence. In addition, prior institutional gains and losses have palpable implications for future prices.

The Performance Of Reverse Leveraged Buyouts, Jerry Cao, Josh Lerner

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Reverse leveraged buyouts (RLBOs) have received increased public scrutiny but attracted little systematic study. We collect a comprehensive sample of 526 RLBOs between 1981 and 2003 and examine the three-year and five-year stock performance of these offerings. RLBOs appear to perform as well as or better than other initial public offerings and the stock market as a whole, depending on the specification. Evidence exists of a deterioration of returns over time.

Using High-Frequency Transaction Data To Estimate The Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper applies the asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) using irregularly spaced transaction data. We model trade direction (buy versus sell orders) and the duration between trades jointly. Unlike the Easley, Hvidkjaer, and O'Hara(2002) approach, which uses the aggregate numbers of daily buy and sell orders to estimate PIN, our methodology allows for interactions between consecutive buy-sell orders and accounts for the duration between trades and the volume of trade. We extend the Easley-Hvidkjaer-O'Hara framework by allowing the probabilities of good news and bad news to …

Institutional Investors And Equity Returns: Are Short-Term Institutions Better Informed?, Xuemin (Sterling) Yan, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that the positive relation between institutional ownership and future stock returns documented in Gompers and Metrick (2001) is driven by short-term institutions. Furthermore, short-term institutions' trading forecasts future stock returns. This predictability does not reverse in the long run and is stronger for small and growth stocks. Short-term institutions' trading is also positively related to future earnings surprises. By contrast, long-term institutions' trading does not forecast future returns, nor is it related to future earnings news. Our results are consistent with the view that short-term institutions are better informed and they trade actively to exploit their informational advantage.

Determinants Of Debt And Dividend Decisions: Trade-Off Vs Pecking Order, Caitlin A. Farrell

Theses & Honors Papers

This study tests the trade-off and pecking order theories about the dividend and debt decisions for stock firms. The decision of a firm to use debt to finance investment opportunities is important since the firm's choice between debt or equity determines the optimal capital structure. Under the trade-off theory, there is some optimal balance between debt and equity, and the firm will use debt until the cost of taking on more debt is more expensive than the cost of issuing equity. The firm uses internal fonds first under the pecking order theory, and then if more financing is needed, the …

Empirical Evidences On Risk-Taking And Performance Of Mutual Fund, Jingchang Lu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper examines the relationship between performance and risk exposure for mutual funds. The preliminary analysis fails to support the tournament hypothesis, which predicts that poorly performing managers will increase risk exposure while outperforming managers will decrease risk exposure. Instead, we find evidence of risk reduction for extreme losers and risk increase for winning managers. Besides, the risk-taking fails to align manager interest with shareholder interest since the returns from the risk enhancement by winners and the risk reduction by losers is relatively worse than those with contradictory strategies. Overall, the competition among fund managers appears to affect management risk …

International Evidence On Analyst Monitoring And Earnings Management: The Roles Of Corporate Disclosure And National Culture, Soongsoo Han, Tony Kang, Gerald Lobo, Yong Keun Yoo

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We examine country-level determinants of private information search incentives, and whether analysts’ role in constraining managers’ opportunistic earnings management varies across countries. In a sample of 31,312 firm-year observations originating from 30 countries, we document that: (1) analyst coverage is negatively (positively) related to the level of corporate disclosure (how secretive the national culture is); (2) the negative association between analyst coverage and earnings management is observed in stronger investor protection countries but not in weaker investor protection countries; and (3) analyst monitoring fails to mitigate culturedriven earnings manipulations in countries with more individualistic and uncertainty-tolerant cultures. Taken together, financial …

Hedging: Scaling And The Investor Horizon, Jim Hanly, John Cotter

Articles

This paper examines the volatility and covariance dynamics of cash and futures contracts that underlie the Optimal Hedge Ratio (OHR) across different hedging time horizons. We examine whether hedge ratios calculated over a short term hedging horizon can be scaled and successfully applied to longer term horizons. We also test the equivalence of scaled hedge ratios with those calculated directly from lower frequency data and compare them in terms of hedging effectiveness. Our findings show that the volatility and covariance dynamics may differ considerably depending on the hedging horizon and this gives rise to significant differences between short term and …

Acquisitions Driven By Stock Overvaluation, Leming Lin

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Overvaluation might drive a firm to use its stock to acquire another firm whose stock is not as overpriced. Though hypothetically desirable, these acquisitions create little, if any, value for acquirer shareholders. Two factors impede value creation for acquirer stockholders from these transactions (despite large differences in relative overvaluation at announcement): acquirers paying large premiums to targets, and investors' correction of acquirer overvaluation during the bid period. Furthermore, acquirer CEOs obtain a large amount of new stock and option grants after acquisitions and realize a net gain in wealth, further suggesting that equity overvaluation increases agency costs and the resulting …

Does Morningstar Shine In The Universe Of Mutual Funds? A Study On Morningstar Mutual Fund Ratings, Wee Seng Ng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Using data from Morningstar Principia CDs and employing standard methodologies, we examine the extent to which two mutual fund ratings: Morningstar star ratings and Morningstar stewardship grades can predict future fund performance. In particular, we investigate whether the combined predictive power of the two ratings exceeds that of a single rating. We decompose funds into various groups characterized by fund age and fund categories in order to address such issues as whether predictive performance is uniform across characteristic-based groups. Although our analysis shows that none of the ratings alone possesses strong predictive power, there is statistical evidence to support the …

Does Vc Reputation Affect Function Of Lockup Agreement?, Kejia He

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Instead of perceiving lockup agreement and VC-backing as exogenous variables, this paper employs the VC-backed IPO data and takes a closer examination on the specific effect of VC reputation, which impacts the choice of lockup length and return and volume abnormality around lockup expiry. Contrary to the commitment hypothesis proposed by previous literatures, the data suggests that less VC-backed companies tend to choose a longer lockup agreement as a compensation device and those companies backed by more reputable VC experience less negative abnormal return and less abnormal volume around lockup expiry.

Expected Equity Option Returns, Xue Zhang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Substantial progress has been made in investigating `Overpriced Puts Puzzle' which exists in index futures options. However, scarce studies focus on whether single-stock options also have similar problems. This thesis analyzes the returns of individual stocks' calls, puts, and their portfolios, both theoretically and empirically. Adopting the methodology of Broadie, Chernov, and Johannes (2008), I find that (1) calls have positive expected returns while puts have negative expected returns. The expected returns of both calls and puts are increasing in the strike price. (2) CAPM alphas and Sharpe ratios are reasonable for calls options, but they are too negative for …

Has The Introduction Of Bookbuilding Increased The Efficiency Of China's Ipo Pricing?, Jiehui Fei

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Book-building is commonly adopted in global primary markets and regarded as the most efficient pricing method for accurate IPO pricing by literatures. China has introduced book-building in 2005 to increase IPO pricing accuracy and the capabilities of domestic institutional investors. However, with the current IPO data from China, I find the level of under-pricing has unexpectedly increased after book-building, which is against the empirical studies of a few domestic papers. Secondly, there's some evidence that with better information disclosure from issuer-side through book-building process, the signaling and ex-ante uncertainty effect that previously caused under-pricing has been reduced. But there're unique …