Portfolio and Security Analysis Commons^™

Equity Fund Monthly Report, June 2019, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Fixed Income Fund Report, June 2019, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Are Bond Ratings Informative? Evidence From Regulatory Regime Changes, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh, Yen Teik Lee, Lisa Zongfei Yang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Dodd–Frank Act (Section 939B) enacted in 2010 repealed the exemption of credit rating agencies (CRAs) from Regulation Fair Disclosure. Testing whether CRAs continue to provide new information to the market after the repeal, the authors find that the significant prerepeal stock price responses to rating changes disappear after the regime change. Bond price reactions, however, remain significant. These results are even more significant at the investment–speculative boundary. Evidence suggests that CRAs served as a conduit for transmitting private information before the repeal and that the continued bond price reactions are likely due to regulations favoring higher-rated bonds.

Volatility Interruptions, Idiosyncratic Risk, And Stock Return, Saad A. Alsunbul

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of implementing the static and dynamic volatility interruption rule on idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns in Nasdaq Stockholm. Using EGARCH and GARCH models to estimate the conditional idiosyncratic volatility, we find that the conditional idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns increase as stock prices hit the upper static or dynamic volatility interruption limits. Conversely, we find that the conditional idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns decrease as stock prices hit the lower static or dynamic volatility interruption limit. We also find that the conditional idiosyncratic volatility is higher when stock prices reach …

Predictive Distributions Via Filtered Historical Simulation For Financial Risk Management, Tyson Clark

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Filtered historical simulation with an underlying GARCH process can be used as a valuable tool in VaR analysis, as it derives risk estimates that are sensitive to the distributional properties of the historical data of the produced predictive density. I examine the applications to risk analysis that filtered historical simulation can provide, as well as an interpretation of the predictive density as a poor man’s Bayesian posterior distribution. The predictive density allows us to make associated probabilistic statements regarding the results for VaR analysis, giving greater measurement of risk and the ability to maintain the optimal level of risk per …

Analysis Of S&P 500 Sector Etfs, John Haire

Honors Theses

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are a diversified pool of assets that trade on an exchange and track an index. Tracking error is the difference between a portfolio's returns and the benchmark or index it was meant to mimic. Investors want the Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) to track the benchmark very closely or have the tracking error as low as possible. This paper looks at the tracking errors of different S&P sector ETFs by using the average absolute differences in monthly returns between the ETF and its benchmark index. The results indicate that the Technology and Real Estate sectors have the …

The Impact Of Immigration On Financial Markets, Jesse Baker

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper studies the impact of immigration policy on financial markets. I estimate the cumulative abnormal returns surrounding two events the effective start date of the Immigration Act of 1990 and the implementation of the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) of Nicaragua and Honduras in 1999. Focusing on agriculture, construction, and manufacturing firms, I find that the CARs surrounding the events are indeed positive and significant, suggesting that the market anticipated growth among industries that are likely to hire Central American immigrants.

Leverage Adjustment And Credit Risk, Wei He

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three coherent chapters that discuss the capital structure target, speed of adjustment and effect of speed of adjustment on credit risk.

Ⅰ: We standardize leverage ratio by underlying business risk. The methodology of standardization follows the assumption that asset value follows a geometric Brownian motion. We find that by standardizing book leverage ratio, standardized leverage ratio can be explained by firm characteristics with a much larger coefficient of determination compared with book leverage ratio. The coefficient of determination difference of regression with standardized leverage ratio and book leverage ratio becomes even larger if we exclude zero …

The Cross Section Of Expected Returns: Evidence From Implied Beliefs Of Active Mutual Funds Managers, Jorge Sabat

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

I develop a new test to compare the performance of asset pricing models. Using the industry allocations of active US mutual funds, I employ a structural model to estimate the implied expected returns on industry portfolios. For each asset pricing model, I use the factor loadings and the implied expected returns to calculate the implied expected factor risk premium. I compare the models based on the implied Sharpe ratio of the market portfolio. My methodology identifies the asset pricing model that not only generates the highest Sharpe ratio for the market but also best tracks the ex-ante Sharpe ratio. I …

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company Newsletter, Spring 2019, Scott Deacle, Isaac Abrams, Paul Cottam, Elvi Sopiqoti, Wilbert Diaz, Johnny Myers

Investment Management Company Newsletter

Inside this Issue:

What's New?

Brief History of Ursinus

What Our Newest Students are Saying

What are "They" Saying?

Vanguard Field Trip

2019 Fund Performance

Looking Forward

Fundraising & Gallery

Equity Fund Monthly Report, April 2019, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Disclosure Of Pending Lawsuits And Bond Terms, Yun Lou

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

I examine the effect of the disclosure of pendinglawsuits in 10-K/Q filings on the contractual terms of newly issued bonds. Ifind that firms’ decision to disclose pending lawsuits and the amount ofdisclosed information (i.e., the level of disclosure) have opposite effects.Specifically, firms that disclose a higher proportion of their pending lawsuitsface higher yields and are more likely to include default clauses pertaining tocourt judgments in the bond prospectuses. However, within the subsample offirms that disclose their lawsuits, I find that firms with a higher level of disclosureregarding their pending lawsuits are rewarded with lower yields. This evidencesuggests that bond investors …

The Influence Of Publicly-Traded Reits And Market-Based Inflation Expectations On Daily-Priced Private Commercial Real Estate Returns, Tiffany Burns Gherlone

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

Investors requiring daily Net Asset Values (NAV) represent a large and growing source of capital for the private institutional real estate asset class. Defined contribution and other daily-valued vehicles are increasing their investments into private, direct commercial real estate through funds that estimate changes to income and values in order to mark a daily NAV. Utilizing nine years of daily data from the NCREIF Fund Index – Daily Priced, we optimize a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model with generalized error distribution parameterization (GARCH-GED) to better understand the influence of publicly-traded real estate securities and changes in market-implied inflation expectations on …

Fixed Income Fund Report, March 2019, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Stock Market Prediction Analysis By Incorporating Social And News Opinion And Sentiment, Zhaoxia Wang, Seng-Beng Ho, Zhiping Lin

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The price of the stocks is an important indicator for a company and many factors can affect their values. Different events may affect public sentiments and emotions differently, which may have an effect on the trend of stock market prices. Because of dependency on various factors, the stock prices are not static, but are instead dynamic, highly noisy and nonlinear time series data. Due to its great learning capability for solving the nonlinear time series prediction problems, machine learning has been applied to this research area. Learning-based methods for stock price prediction are very popular and a lot of enhanced …

Improving Vix Futures Forecasts Using Machine Learning Methods, James Hosker, Slobodan Djurdjevic, Hieu Nguyen, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

The problem of forecasting market volatility is a difficult task for most fund managers. Volatility forecasts are used for risk management, alpha (risk) trading, and the reduction of trading friction. Improving the forecasts of future market volatility assists fund managers in adding or reducing risk in their portfolios as well as in increasing hedges to protect their portfolios in anticipation of a market sell-off event. Our analysis compares three existing financial models that forecast future market volatility using the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) to six machine/deep learning supervised regression methods. This analysis determines which models provide best …

The Archway Investment Fund, Annual Report 2019, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

The Archway Investment Fund is tightly integrated into the Finance Department curriculum, and it serves as a capstone experiential learning opportunity for students interested in investment careers. The equity portfolio is managed as part of a two-course sequence in Security Analysis and Portfolio Management. The fixed income portfolio is also tightly integrated into the Finance Department curriculum. Students take Debt, Securities, Derivatives and Investing first. Successful completion of that course is required for a student to be able to enroll in the Archway Fixed Income Portfolio Management course, where the management of the AIF Fixed Income Portfolio is the central …

Reliability Of Clustering In Forecasting Stock Prices Of Companies Traded On The Stock Exchanges, Shristi Dhakal

Merge

Whether stock prices can be accurately forecasted or not is usually associated with whether markets are efficient or not. The idea of market efficiency suggested by the Efficient Market Hypothesis has been debated among financial professionals for a long time, especially due to the occurrence of financial bubbles in the past. Some argue that stock prices prediction is no different than the results of “a series of tosses of a coin, rolls of a die, or spins of a roulette wheel,” while others argue that stock prices are affected by past patterns, which can be used to forecast future prices …

Portfolio Optimization With International Diversification, Sardar Adam Saeed Khan

Honors Theses and Capstones

No abstract provided.

Uncertainty Across The Pond: An Evaluation Of Equity Market Returns And Currency Fluctuations In Reaction To Key Brexit Events, Sean Michael Andreasson

Honors Theses and Capstones

The citizens of the United Kingdom shocked the world on June 23^rd, 2016 when they voted in favor of leaving the European Union. The 3-year aftermath of the Referendum has created a large amount of uncertainty regarding the future of the United Kingdom economy and its post-Brexit relationship with the European Union. The purpose of this research is to explore how the financial markets react to Brexit news headlines, compare the returns of European and non-European exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and currencies, identify common themes, and ultimately shed light on how investors weigh-in on the interconnectedness of the UK, …

Occupational Fraud: Executive Compensation And Enforcements Against Auditors And Perpetrators., Erlina Papakroni

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation is comprised of three studies that examine the association of executive compensation with financial statement fraud and enforcements pursued against the independent auditor and the principal perpetrators when occupational fraud is detected.

The first study examines competing, though non-mutually exclusive, hypotheses for the path that equity compensation follows on its way to financial misreporting. We find that firms that experience financial statement fraud pay their executives higher levels and a higher proportion of equity compensation across the entire executive’s tenure. This starts in the first year of an executive’s tenure and continues up until the fraud period. These …

Pipe Discounts, Premia, And Performance, Jason S. Barbarosh

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores private investments in public equity (PIPE) deals as a means of alternative firm financing. Poorly performing companies often look towards PIPEs to quickly raise capital when traditional means of financing are limited. This study provides an analysis on both the discount and premia that PIPEs are issued at, as well as the performance of firms after the deal announcement. Overall, this study finds that successful PIPEs from the investor’s perspective are issued at a discount of close to 17%, and unsuccessful PIPEs are issued at an average of a 15% premium. I find substantial cumulative abnormal returns …

The Growth Of Socially Responsible Investing Practices In U.S. Equity Markets And Abnormal Sin Stock Returns, Jack Lori

CMC Senior Theses

In my Senior Thesis, I explore the growth of socially responsible investing (SRI) practices in U.S. equity markets and abnormal sin stocks returns. I analyze the historical performance of socially responsible ETFs and portfolios of current sin stocks—alcohol, tobacco, gaming, and aerospace & defense stocks. I propose that as socially responsible investing practices continue to grow in U.S. equity markets, more industries will eventually be deemed sinful—such as sugary beverages, fast food/sugary food, biotech & pharmaceuticals, and tech/social media. I examine two sinful industries—alcohol and tobacco—by comparing the performance of these sinful portfolios before and after their industries were widely …

Are Women Executives Hurting Firm Performance? An Examination Of Gender Diversity On Firm Risk, Performance, And Executive Compensation, Krystal Diane Sung

CMC Senior Theses

In order to assess the continuing imbalance of top executives between genders, I examine the effects of gender diversity within top management teams on firm risk, performance, and executive compensation. Capitalizing on previous analysis, I apply three unique differentiators. First, I utilize current data from 2012 to 2017 from Compustat, CRSP, and ExecuComp. Second, I provide a unique subset view on a firm and individual performance of female CEOs to examine executive compensation. Third, my scope of analysis expands to S&P Composite 1500 companies. I use separate models to estimate the effect of gender diversity on firm risk by examining …

Quantifying The Announcement Effects In The U.S. Lumber Market, Zarina Mamadalievna Ismailova

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The impact of public reports on price fluctuations has been widely investigated in many commodity markets, but little attention has been paid to the lumber market. In this thesis, we examine the impact of two housing market reports, namely the New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) and the New Residential Sales reports, on the U.S. lumber futures market. Our results suggest that the housing starts report does indeed affect lumber market volatility, while the New Residential sales report exerts a minor impact on lumber price volatility. Price volatility is measured by changes future contract prices for lumber. We further find that …

Financial Market Risk And Macroeconomic Stability Variables: Dynamic Interactions And Feedback Effects, Agnieszka M. Chomicz-Grabowska

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This study investigates dynamic interactions and feedback effects between financial market risk proxied by VIX and key macroeconomic stability variables that include the rate of unemployment, headline inflation and market-based inflation expectations reflected by the breakeven inflation. I argue that market risk should play a stronger role in macroeconomic modeling and forecasting than it has been recognized thus far in the literature. I employ vector autoregression with impulse response functions, as well as two-state Markov switching tests to examine these interactions on the longest available US monthly data. The empirical tests show that the association between market risk and macroeconomic …

Fixed Income Report, December 2018, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

International Risk Sharing In Overlapping Generations Models, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We present a solution to the Backus-Smith puzzle that, instead of relying on extreme parameter values or complex modeling assumptions, simply switches the framework from infinitely lived agents to overlapping generations. Young agents face non-diversifiable wage risk that leads to a low degree of risk sharing within each country. Subsequently, international price movements are not sufficient to achieve the high consumption-real exchange rate correlation produced in standard infinitely lived agent DSGE models.

Equity Fund Monthly Report, December 2018, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Sensation Seeking And Hedge Funds, Stephen Brown, Yan Lu, Sugata Ray, Song Wee Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that motivated by sensation seeking, hedge fund managers who own powerful sports cars take on more investment risk but do not deliver higher returns, resulting in lower Sharpe ratios, information ratios, and alphas. Moreover, sensation-seeking managers trade more frequently, actively, and unconventionally, and prefer lottery-like stocks. We show further that some investors are themselves susceptible to sensation seeking and that sensation-seeking investors fuel the demand for sensation-seeking managers. While investors perceive sensation seekers to be less competent, they do not fully appreciate the superior investment skills of sensation-avoiding fund managers.