Econometrics Commons^™

An Exploratory Analysis Of Time Series Econometric Data For Retention Forecasting Using Deep Learning, John C. O'Donnell

Theses and Dissertations

Officer retention in the Air Force has been researched many times in an attempt to better predict the personnel needs of the Air Force for the future. There has been previous work done in regards to specific AFSCs and how their retention compares to specific yet similar private sector jobs. This study considers different econometric time series statistics as a feature space and an average Air Force officer separation rate as the response variable for the multivariate time series analysis deep learning techniques. The econometric indicators used in this study are New Business Formations, New Durable Good Orders, and the …

Big Data And Inflation Forecasting In Nigeria: A Text Mining Application., M. A. Adebiyi, A. O. Adenuga, T. S. Olusegun, O. O. Mbutor

Economic and Financial Review

The success of monetary policy is substantially predicated on the availability of reliable forecast of inflation. However, the shocks arising from COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war have brought about significant economic uncertainties; thus, necessitating the fine-tuning of existing forecasting models of the Central Bank of Nigeria. This study explores the usefulness of public sentiments obtained using machine learning methods to improve the predictive power of the existing short-term inflation forecasting model (STIF) in Nigeria. Findings indicate that, for all components of inflation, models that include the computed sentiment index perform better in both in-sample and out-sample forecasts than those excluding …

Declining Discount Rates In Singapore's Market For Privately Developed Apartments, Eric Fesselmeyer, Haoming Liu, Alberto Salvo

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

Singapore's market for new privately developed apartments exhibits wide quasi-experimental variation in ownership tenure. We develop an empirical model in which prices are decomposed into the utility of housing services and a factor that shifts with asset tenure and the discount rate schedule, which we discipline to vary smoothly over time. We estimate discount rates that decline over time and, to accommodate the observed price differences, fall to 0.5-1.5% p.a. by year 400. The finding that households making sizable transactions do not entirely discount benefits accruing centuries from today is relevant, with the appropriate risk adjustment, for evaluating climate-change investments.

Occupation Density Estimation For Noisy High-Frequency Data, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Tim Bollerslev

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the nonparametric estimation of occupation densities for semimartingale processes observed with noise. As leading examples we consider the stochastic volatility of a latent efficient price process, the volatility of the latent noise that separates the efficient price from the actually observed price, and nonlinear transformations of these processes. Our estimation methods are decidedly nonparametric and consist of two steps: the estimation of the spot price and noise volatility processes based on pre-averaging techniques and in-fill asymptotic arguments, followed by a kernel-type estimation of the occupation densities. Our spot volatility estimates attain the optimal rate of convergence, and …

A Posterior-Based Wald-Type Statistic For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiaobin Liu, Tao Zeng, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new Wald-type statistic is proposed for hypothesis testing based on Bayesian posterior distributions under the correct model specification. The new statistic can be explained as a posterior version of the Wald statistic and has several nice properties. First, it is well-defined under improper prior distributions. Second, it avoids Jeffreys–Lindley–Bartlett’s paradox. Third, under the null hypothesis and repeated sampling, it follows a χ2" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; font-size: 16.2px; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; position: relative;">χ2 …

Conditional Superior Predictive Ability, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Rogier Quaedvlieg

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article proposes a test for the conditional superior predictive ability (CSPA) of a family of forecasting methods with respect to a benchmark. The test is functional in nature: under the null hypothesis, the benchmark’s conditional expected loss is no more than those of the competitors, uniformly across all conditioning states. By inverting the CSPA tests for a set of benchmarks, we obtain confidence sets for the uniformly most superior method. The econometric inference pertains to testing conditional moment inequalities for time series data with general serial dependence, and we justify its asymptotic validity using a uniform non-parametric inference method …

Financial Inclusion And Monetary Policy - Investigating The Relationship Between Financial Inclusion And Monetary Policy: The Case Of Egypt, Salma Maher

Theses and Dissertations

In the past decade, financial inclusion has become an issue of increasing importance to developing nations. This is due to its perceived effects on poverty alleviation, sustainable growth and enhancing monetary policy effectiveness. Unfortunately, there is little empirical research on the effects of financial inclusion. The thesis hopes to contribute to the literature by inspecting the relationship between financial utilization indices and monetary policy in Egypt. The thesis utilizes quarterly data on outstanding deposits and loans from 2004 to 2020 as well as a VAR model – supplemented with an ARDL model – to test the aforementioned relationship. The thesis …

Cryptocurrencies Bandwagon…Fad Wave Or Investment Asset? Firm Level Analysis Of Panel Data In Egypt, Yasmine Galal

Theses and Dissertations

The crypto market is growing rapidly and gaining momentum globally. The current study is tackling the impact of the crypto exchanges on the stock market in Egypt. The author consolidated firm level data from DataStream and Cryptocurrency data from CoinDesk to conduct this study over the period 2014-2020. The methodology is based on Fixed Effect and IV-GMM models to study the differential impact across sectors and firm attributes. Our main findings can be highlighted as follows: (a) cryptocurrencies are substitutes to stocks. (b)Two periods are highlighted in the analysis: 2016 post currency devaluation and COVID-19 pandemic, where the adoption was …

Data For "Agency, Benevolence And Justice", Prithvijit Mukherjee, J. Dustin Tracy

ESI Data Sets

We test for social norms regarding how agents should select between risky prospects for principals, including norms consistent with beneficence and justice propositions from Adam Smith. We elicit norms from subjects serving as "impartial spectator[s]" about choice of risky prospect selected by the agents. We find strong evidence for the existence of norms, consistent with the Smith propositions. Furthermore we find that agents are more likely to select more normative options. In contrast, we find that principals' allocation for bonuses depends on the realization of the risky prospect rather than whether the agents choice was consistent with the norm.

Risk Price Variation: The Missing Half Of Empirical Asset Pricing, Andrew John Patton, Brian M. Weller

Research Collection School Of Economics

Equal compensation across assets for the same risk exposures is a bedrock of asset pricing theory and empirics. Yet real-world frictions can violate this equality and create apparently high Sharpe ratio opportunities. We develop new methods for asset pricing with cross-sectional heterogeneity in compensation for risk. We extend k-means clustering to group assets by risk prices and introduce a formal test for whether differences in risk premiums across market segments are too large to occur by chance. We find significant evidence of cross-sectional variation in risk prices for almost all combinations of test assets, factor models, and time periods considered.

Essays On Empirical Asset Pricing Models, Somayeh Ahmadi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This thesis examines co-movement across industry return and value and momentum asset price anomalies through a new perspective and uses machine learning and spatial econometrics approaches. The first chapter examines the main approaches developed in the cross-section asset pricing literature for finding risk variables. The second chapter focuses on spatial co-movement across US industry returns. We show that spatial co-movement explains the variance in US industry returns after accounting for exposure to common variables, serial dynamics, and industry sector-specific characteristics using a dynamic spatial panel data model. The results show that an investment strategy that buys industry portfolios with high …

Essays In Monetary And Macroprudential Policies, Mikheil Dvalishvili

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1 Using a medium scale general equilibrium New Keynesian business cycle model with macroprudential policy and news shocks I study the effectiveness of various combinations of the monetary and macroprudential policies. I incorporate defaults both in the banking sector and households. The results show that out of the policy strategies considered the standard Taylor rule combined with the LTV requirement that reacts countercyclically to the deviation of house prices from the steady state yields higher welfare as compared with all the other strategies considered. Additionally, the standard Taylor rule combined with either of the countercyclical LTV requirements mitigates the …

Nonignorable Missing Data, Single Index Propensity Score And Profile Synthetic Distribution Function, Xuerong Chen, Denis H. Y. Leung, Jing Qin

Research Collection School Of Economics

In missing data problems, missing not at random is difficult to handle since the response probability or propensity score is confounded with the outcome data model in the likelihood. Existing works often assume the propensity score is known up to a finite dimensional parameter. We relax this assumption and consider an unspecified single index model for the propensity score. A pseudo-likelihood based on the complete data is constructed by profiling out a synthetic distribution function that involves the unknown propensity score. The pseudo-likelihood gives asymptotically normal estimates. Simulations show the method compares favorably with existing methods.

A Panel Clustering Approach To Analyzing Bubble Behavior, Yanbo Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study provides new mechanisms for identifying and estimating explosive bubbles in mixed-root panel autoregressions with a latent group structure. A post-clustering approach is employed that combines a recursive k-means clustering al-gorithm with panel-data test statistics for testing the presence of explosive roots in time series trajectories. Uniform consistency of the k-means clustering algorithm is established, showing that the post-clustering estimate is asymptotically equivalent to the oracle counterpart that uses the true group identities. Based on the estimated group membership, right-tailed self-normalized t-tests and coefficient-based J-tests, each with pivotal limit distributions, are introduced to detect the explosive roots. The usual …

Liquidity Commonality With Factor Models, Ernesto Garcia Iii

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Market microstructure research has recently devoted attention to a phenomenon called commonality in liquidity. In this dissertation, I will analyze commonality in liquidity using a novel factor model approach and a generalized definition of commonality in liquidity. This analysis will show that commonality in liquidity is rarely a marketwide phenomenon and is mostly restricted to stocks with a large market capitalization. Additionally, commonality in liquidity is a very recent phenomenon whose appearance coincides with a rise in passive investing after the Dotcom Bubble burst and, more so, after the 2008 Financial Crisis. I will present evidence that suggests commonality in …

The No-Arbitrage Hypothesis And Inertia In Forward Markets, José Luis Ferreira, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

Allaz (1992) showed that the no-arbitrage condition in forward markets is obtained as a feature of the equilibrium if the model allows for strategic behavior on the part of the buyers. He showed that having active buyers is equivalent to passive buyers plus the no-arbitrage hypothesis. We test this experimentally in a forward market by allowing for active buyer’s under exogenously or endogenously determined market closure. We further test an inertia hypothesis that looks at whether past participation in a spot-market results in quantities being limited in the forward market stage. Importantly, the no-arbitrage condition can only be tested with …

The Effect Of Covid-19 On The Performance Of Listed Firms: Do The Governments’ Policies And Vaccination Rates Play A Role? Evidence From Countries In The Middle East And North Africa, Mofida El Bassioni

Theses and Dissertations

This study uses a quantitative approach to estimate the empirical results of COVID-19, stringency index, and vaccination rates on the stock returns of Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and UAE. Additionally, the researcher included firm-specific variables such as liquidity and leverage, total capital, employees, and date of incorporation. Total capital and employees were used as proxies for company size and for whether the firm is capital intensive or not, while date of incorporation was used as a proxy for company age. Additionally, the researcher created interaction strings between COVID-19 cases and stringency index, COVID- 19 cases and …

Vector Autoregression Analysis Of The Relationship Between Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, And Exchange Rate To The Jakarta Islamic Index, Ajeng Qurrota A'Yun, Nur Fatwa

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

ABSTRACT

The Indonesian Sharia Capital Market is an interesting thing to study because based on the 2019 Global Islamic Finance Report (GIFR) report, Indonesia is ranked first in the Global Sharia Financial Market. The Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) is the sharia stock index that was first launched on the Indonesian capital market on July 3, 2000 and only consisted of the 30 most liquid Islamic shares listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study will try to uncover how the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia by using Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and using monthly secondary data from 2012-2019. VAR …

Macroeconomic Shocks And Credit Risk Stress Testing: Evidence From The Egyptian Banking Sector, Noha Elgaliy

Theses and Dissertations

Stress tests can satisfy a range of policy objectives and ensure banks are adequately resilient to common economic shocks or specific financial risks. Though the growing body of literature on stress testing, the existing studies have usually focused on developed countries who have relatively stable macroeconomic indicator when compared developing countries. Therefore, this thesis aims to present a macroeconomic credit risk model that explicitly links a set of selected macroeconomic factors including gross domestic product, inflation, lending interest rates and exchange rate to banking non-preforming loans using evidence from the Egyptian banking sector over the time period from 2011 to …

Infrastructure In India's Internal War: A District-Level Analysis Of The Naxalite-Maoist Conflict, Krunal Desai

Undergraduate Economic Review

Since the last few decades of economic liberalization, India has been experiencing a civil conflict threat by communist insurgents known as Naxalites. Because this group desires to separate themselves from the state through violent means, they began occupying themselves in some of the least developed districts in India. Coincidentally, because of low human development, the Government of India created an infrastructure program known as the Backwards Regions Grant Fund (BRGF) that targets a selected set of districts that lack basic infrastructures such as roads, sanitation facilities, and electrical grids. This study aims to question the notion that government assistance should …