Behavioral Economics Commons^™

Commodity Futures Returns And Policy Uncertainty, Deepa Bannigidadmath, Paresh Kumar Narayan

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

This paper investigates whether economic policy uncertainty is predictable using three sets of commodity futures market variables, namely the equal-weighted average of futures excess returns, the excess returns on a portfolio of going long in backwardated commodities, and the excess returns on a portfolio of going short in contango commodities as predictors. We find significant evidence of both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability. Combination forecasts also reveal strong evidence of predictability. Our findings remain unchanged following several robustness tests.

Editorial - Subsistence Marketplaces: Journal, Knowledge-Practice Portal, And Organization, Madhu Viswanathan

Subsistence Marketplaces

Subsistence Marketplaces: Journal, Knowledge-Practice Portal and Organization

Not-So-Full-Ride Scholarship: Analysis Of Merit-Based Aid Gpa Renewal Requirements, Samuel Brown

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

This paper examines the potential consequences of the 3.50 GPA renewal requirement for the Regents Scholar Tuition Commitment (RSTC) at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL). To examine these potential outcomes, I’ve synthesized several studies of Georgia’s Helping Outstanding Pupils Educationally (HOPE) program. Additionally, I sought to compare the RSTC with other similar programs at UNL’s peer Big Ten institutions. To accomplish this, I compiled and analyzed public information on merit-based programs at the 14 Big Ten schools from their university websites. In doing so, I found that the RSTC is in the lowest quartile in terms of value to the …

Architecture, Social Norms, And Their Economic Consequences In Japan, Koichi Kume

Japanese Society and Culture

Law and market mechanisms presuppose that people are rational. With the diversification of lifestyles and values, however, there is a limit to appealing only to economic rationality to implement social policies. In this study we focus on architecture as a policy instrument that does not presuppose people’s rationality and empirically analyze the effect on economic consequences in Japan. Specifically, we examine the relationship between bank transfers and poverty reduction, and that between statues (Sontoku Ninomiya, Jizo) and labor norms. The results suggest that the use of architecture in policy can improve policy effectiveness regardless of people’s irrationality and heterogeneous preferences.

The Effects Of Income On Health: Evidence From Lottery Wins In Singapore, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

We estimate the causal effects of household income on self-reported health status by exploiting random variations in the amount of lottery prizes won. We find that a S$10,000 (US$7,245) increase in income via lottery wins improves individuals’ health by a standard deviation of 0.18. As possible mechanisms, we find that lottery wins increase household consumption spending and improve overall life satisfaction, but do not change healthcare spending, labor supply, and risky health behavior. Previous studies, which focused on the health effects of lottery prizes in Western European countries with strong social safety nets, do not find positive effects other than …

What Is The Impact Of Economic Stimulus Measures On Covid-19 Mortality Rates?, Stephanie C. Santaguida

University Honors Theses

This inquiry seeks to establish the degree to which economic stimulus measures impact COVID-19 mortality rates. There appears to be an inverse correlation between domestic social spending and COVID-19 deaths. While confirmed infections are the most reliable predictor of mortality rates, trust in government is an important factor to consider when public compliance with health directives determines the degree of epidemiological risk in each country. Although most economists agree that stimulus monies directed to low-income individuals to prevent financial collapse were appropriate, there is some dissention with regard to the type and size of such cash infusions. Nonetheless, behavioral economists …

Hemp Production Network Effects: Are Producers Tipped Toward Suboptimal Varietal Selection By Their Neighbors?, Tanner Mccarty, Jeffrey Young

Journal of Applied Farm Economics

The 2018 farm bill removed industrial hemp from the Schedule 1 Controlled Substance List. In response, states scrambled to enact hemp legislation. Some hemp flower producers report their hemp fields were cross- pollinated by a neighbor growing a different hemp cultivar. For hemp flower crops, cross- pollination reduces cannabinoid concentration levels within the flower; these concentration levels dictate flower price. We show that in a repeated game, once a sufficiently large percentage of growers decide to plant hemp fiber/seed crops, cross-pollination forces flower growers to convert to fiber/seed to avoid the negative network externality. Over time, a stable, suboptimal Nash …

Information Perception And Climate Change Adaptation, Ji Won Sung

Undergraduate Economic Review

Despite 97% of scientists believing that climate change is occurring, a far smaller proportion of ordinary citizens agree with this statement and the proportion of those who do greatly diverge by political affiliation. This paper lays out a dynamic information updating model with adaptation choice as the final outcome, linking information perception, belief perception, and behavioral implementation. Furthermore, this paper examines how various behavioral and environmental factors affect the agent’s adaptation choices by means of such cognitive processes. This research has implications for further research on climate change preference formation and effective communication strategies, such as informative or normative nudges.

Pregnancy Persistently Reduces Alcohol Purchases: Causal Evidence From Scanner Data, Aljoscha Janssen, Elle Parslow

Research Collection School Of Economics

We analyze household-level changes in alcohol consumption in response to pregnancy. Using scanner data, we identify households with a pregnant household member. Within an event study and a dynamic difference-in-differences estimation, we find that during a first pregnancy, households reduce their alcohol purchases by 36%. After pregnancy, purchases of alcohol are 34% lower than before pregnancy. We do not find any effect during the second pregnancy. One possible explanation for our result is that lower consumption during pregnancy changes habits and reduces consumption in the long term. We discuss other explanations and comment on policy implications.

Educational Investments In Low-Income Households: The Role Of Parental Occupational Identity And Substitutability, Aparna Anand

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Poor parents face difficult trade-offs when investing in their children's education. This dissertation studies how low-income urban households in Southern India, where child labor is a concern, make educational investments for their children. First, I build a model that shows how educational investments are shaped by the possibility of children substituting labor for their parents. Second, I collect parent surveys, child surveys, and student-level administrative data from schools and construct a linked dataset. Third, I examine the relationship between educational investments and several pertinent factors, with an emphasis on child labor substitution and the strength of occupational identity. I find …

2021 Arkansas Business Forecast, Catherine Mann, Mark Palim, Mervin Jebaraj

Publications and Presentations

“The annual Business Forecast is a chance for business and community leaders from Northwest Arkansas, the state and the region to get first-hand insight into the direction for the next year from top economists,” said Matt Waller, dean of the Walton College. “The insights provided by these three experts will inform and shape decisions that help to drive the business community in Arkansas in 2021.”

Waller said those valuable insights and networking opportunities are only possible through the continued strong support of event sponsors.

“Each year, the interest and level of participation in the Business Forecast event continues to grow …

Survey Of The Labor Market For New Ph.D. Hires In Economics 2021-2022, Mervin Jebaraj, David Sorto, Raja Kali

Labor Market Survey

This year, the survey questionnaire was sent to 368 organizations. Questionnaires were returned by 144 organizations (39.1 percent). Of this year’s responses, 53 (36.8 percent) were from those who responded to the last survey conducted for the 2020-21 academic year. Among the academic institutions responding, the distribution of highest degrees offered was as follows: Ph.D.—51.4 percent; Master’s—11.8 percent and Bachelor’s—35.4 percent.

The responses are reported for all respondents, and separately for Ph.D. Degree granting institutions and for schools whose highest degree offered is the Bachelor’s or Master’s Degree. Data for the top 30 institutions in the revised National Research Council’s …

Seeking The Wellspring: Exploring Generosity In A Financial Drought, Laurie Ann Johnson

Doctor of Ministry Theses

This action research project utilized transformative qualitative methods to explore the concept of generous giving by examining the attitudes of a small non-random sample of participants within a congregation before and after an intervention consisting of a seven-part sermon series. Theoretical lenses included generosity, adaptive change, and emergence theory. Biblical lenses included Isaiah 43:18-21 and Isaiah 58:6-12 (wellspring in the desert), John 4 (the Samaritan woman at the well), and John 7:37-39 (living water). Theological lenses included missional pneumatology and the missio Dei, the Christian steward, and the holy currencies of the Cycle of Blessings. Findings revealed that presentation of …

National Cultures And Stock Prices: Evidence From The Emerging Markets, Ahmad E. Shahin, Mostafa Saleh

Papers, Posters, and Presentations

This report in the field of behavioral finance explores the effect of national culture factors and firm specific factors on the stock prices of publicly traded firms in the 36 countries in the emerging markets. Using linear regression, we tested 13 variables (three of them were Hofstede’s indices for Individualism, Uncertainty Avoidance, and Long-term Orientation) against the stock prices. We found that in the Africa, America, and Europe regions, the cultural factors had no significant effect on stock prices. On the other hand we found that only individualistic behavior had a significant effect on stock prices in businesses in Arab …

National Cultures And Capital Structure: Evidence From The Emerging Markets, Ahmad E. Shahin, Laila El Adly, Eman Barr, Islam Fathy, Ahmed Taha

Papers, Posters, and Presentations

This paper identifies the combinations between Hofstede’s six cultural aspects and four selected firm-specific factors, which have a significant impact on the choice of capital structure, in 15,821 listed companies from 34 countries in the emerging market, for the period 2012 – 2014. Thirty seven independent variables and one dependent variable have been tested using regression analysis. It has been concluded that the combinations that have a significant impact on the choice of capital structure (leverage) in the emerging markets were [Cultural – Firm-specific]:

1. Power distance – cash flows, cost of debt
2. Individualism – cash flows, cost of debt
3. Masculinity …

The Exploitation Or Protection Of Communities And Exploited Persons?, Spencer Boldt

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This study was intended to dissect the inner workings of the newly implemented Bill C-36 in Canada, The Protection of Communities and Exploited Peoples Act through a mixed methods approach. This was done through comparing statistical research (demographics, crime data, and overall economic state) within Regina to interviews conducted with those individually involved in prostitution and the community of the city. This study was meant to draw out the differences between what the statistics depict, a growth in the overall safety of Regina, versus the perspectives gained from multiple interviewees. With this mixed method approach I have deduced that Bill …

Regulating Financial Guarantors, Steven L. Schwarcz

Faculty Scholarship

To improve financial regulation, scholars have engaged in extensive research over the past decade to try to understand why systemically important financial firms engage in excessive risk-taking. None of that research fully explains, however, the unusually excessive risk-taking by financial guarantors such as bond insurers, protection sellers under credit-default-swap (CDS) derivatives, credit enhancers in securitization transactions, and even issuers of standby letters of credit. With tens of trillions of dollars of financial guarantees outstanding, the potential for failure is massive. This Article argues that financial guarantor risk-taking is influenced by a previously unrecognized cognitive bias, which it calls “abstraction bias.” …

Three Essays On Tax Compliance In Indonesia, Himawan Saputro

Theses and Dissertations--Public Policy and Administration

This dissertation studies the impacts of major tax reforms designed to improve tax compliance, particularly in the context of developing countries with limited enforcement capacity due to informality and lack of third-party data using the Indonesian tax administrative data as well as relevant empirical research methods. In order to describe this dissertation, I discuss each essay as the following.

The first essay is titled "How Do Small Taxpayers Respond to Tax Simplification? Evidence from the Indonesian Turnover Tax Reform." This essay studies the firms' behavioral responses to tax simplification in Indonesia by exploiting the implementation of turnover tax in 2013 …

U.S. Consumers' Acceptance And Willingness To Pay For Genetically Modified And Genome-Edited Foods, Bindu Paudel

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Even though genetically modified (GM) crops have a lot of economic potential for producers and consumers, they have not been widely accepted due to increasing concerns related to food safety, human, animal, and environmental health. Unlike GM technology, genome-editing technology does not involve the transfer of genetic materials. It is simpler, cheaper, more precise, and faster relative to GM technology and has immense potential for incorporating producer and consumer traits. Genome-editing technology, as a novel process, not has been explored much from the consumer’s side. This study uses a nationally representative survey of 1,573 U.S. consumers to examine their acceptance …

Caregiver Treatment Consumption In An Experimental Treatment Marketplace, Delaney J. Darragh

Faculty Publications

Behavioral economics is an approach to understanding consumer behavior by integrating behavioral science with economic principles. Behavioral economics incorporates traditional economic principles with operant learning approaches. There is limited research examining how individuals consume psychological and behavioral treatments. This is especially the case for treatments designed for children. The current study used data from a previously collected sample to explore gender differences in an experimental treatment marketplace (ETM). Experimental treatment marketplaces are generally used to evaluate choices between goods and services (e.g., types of behavior interventions). An ETM was developed to evaluate treatment consumption when levels of evidence differed between …