Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Lengthening Atlantic Hurricane Seasons With Earlier Storm Formation Dates Including Implications From 2020, Barry D. Keim, L. C. Hamilton, V. M. Brown, P. J. Klotzbach, A. B. Lewis, D. T. Thompson

School of Public Health Faculty Publications

This paper analyzes the formation dates of the nth storm in a sequence for all named North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and assesses whether the intraseasonal length of the Atlantic hurricane season has changed temporally. The record-breaking 2020 season, with 30 named storms, set records for the earliest third TC formation (Cristobal) and from the sixth TC (Fay) onward. Analysis of season length from 1851 to 2022 identifies only one statistically significant breakpoint detected in the early 1970s, roughly coinciding with the introduction of satellite observations. Since 1970, we also find a trend toward longer North Atlantic hurricane seasons. The …

Global Empirical Model Of Sporadic-E Occurrence Rates, Eli V. Parsch, Anthony L. Franz, Eugene V. Dao, Dong L. Wu, Nimalan Swarnalingam, Cornelius C. J. H. Salinas, Daniel J. Emmons

Faculty Publications

Intense ionization enhancements in the Earth’s ionosphere, known as sporadic-E (E_s), can degrade and severely disrupt the propagation of radio signals. Although many previous studies have analyzed the characteristics and morphologies of sporadic-E, few efforts have attempted to model global E_s occurrence rates (ORs) at high time resolutions. This study develops a global empirical model of blanketing sporadic-E occurrence rates using a Karhunen–Loéve Expansion (KLE) of a global OR climatology built with Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation (GNSS-RO) and ionosonde observations. Using an fbE ≥ threshold of 3 MHz, the model outputs a blanketing sporadic-E …

Typology Of Atmospheric Conditions Leading To Dam Overtopping In The Eastern Us, Hodo I. Orok, Deanna Hence

I-GUIDE Forum

Statistical characterization of reanalysis datasets during over 300 hydrologic dam incidents between 2003 and 2022 will create a detailed typology of weather systems associated with dam overtopping in the eastern United States. Dam overtopping poses significant risks to infrastructure and public safety, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of the multi-scale atmospheric conditions that lead to such events. To better account for the natural flow of water to the affected dams, we will adopt a watershed-focused Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on regional atmospheric data collected from ERA5 alongside USGS streamflow and Stage IV precipitation observations to enhance understanding of high-risk weather conditions. …

Creating Sustainable School And Home Gardens: Using Weather Stations, Jake Sanders, Daniel Findlay, Kathy Cabe Trundle, Rita Hagevik, Kaitlin Campbell

All Current Publications

This fact sheet provides an overview of how weather stations work and the steps to set up your own weather station. To help monitor the water conditions, wind speeds, and temperatures that can impact your plants, we suggest adding a weather station to your garden area or greenhouse.

Climate Prediction Center Analogs As Extended Range Predictors For Severe Convective Storms, Sean Phipps

Honors Capstones

Increasing the predictability of severe convective storms (SCSs) over extended time ranges (i. e. >8 days) is of utmost importance to forecasters, as modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) models exhibit little skill at this lead time. Analogs have been used to predict temperature and rainfall anomalies at this time range for decades, though modern developments in analog forecasting uses techniques such as analog ensembles to increase the skill of analog models. This study employs a simple analog ensemble (AnEn) method using the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 Day 500hPa analogs and uses the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)’s report database to …

Managing Frost Risk, Department Of Primary Industries And Regional Development, Western Australia

Grains and other field crops factsheets

Frost occurs on clear nights in early spring when the air temperature drops to 2°C or less. Crop damage from frost may occur at any stage of development but is most damaging at or around flowering.

Frost is difficult to manage, and damage will be unavoidable in some seasons. Risk management options proven to reduce frost risk include paddock zoning, crop and variety selection, time of sowing, stubble management and managing inputs. The greatest gains result from in paddock choice/zoning, crop and variety choice, and manipulating the canopy.

Methane Fluxes In Tidal Marshes Of The Conterminous United States, Ariane Arias-Ortiz, Jaxine Wolfe, Scott D. Bridgham, Sara Knox, Gavin Mcnicol, Brian A. Needelman, Julie Shahan, Ellen J. Stuart-Haëntjens, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Patty Y. Oikawa, Dennis D. Baldocchi, Joshua S. Caplan, Margaret Capooci, Kenneth M. Czapla, R. Kyle Derby, Heida L. Diefenderfer, Inke Forbrich, Gina Groseclose, Jason K. Keller, Cheryl Kelley, Amir E. Keshta, Helena S. Kleiner, Ken W. Krauss, Robert R. Lane, Sarah Mack, Serena Moseman-Valtierra, Thomas J. Mozdzer, Peter Mueller, Scott C. Neubauer, Genevieve Noyce, Katrina V. R. Schäfer, Rebecca Sanders-Demott, Charles A. Schutte, Rodrigo Vargas, Nathaniel B. Weston, Benjamin Wilson, J. Patrick Megonigal, James R. Homquist

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) with atmospheric concentrations that have nearly tripled since pre-industrial times. Wetlands account for a large share of global CH4 emissions, yet the magnitude and factors controlling CH4 fluxes in tidal wetlands remain uncertain. We synthesized CH4 flux data from 100 chamber and 9 eddy covariance (EC) sites across tidal marshes in the conterminous United States to assess controlling factors and improve predictions of CH4 emissions. This effort included creating an open-source database of chamber-based GHG fluxes (https://doi.org/10.25573/serc.14227085). Annual fluxes across chamber and EC sites averaged 26 ± 53 g CH4 …

Numerical Techniques For Improving Simulations Of Tropical Cyclones, Yassine Tissaoui

Dissertations

The increasing frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) due to climate change pose significant challenges for forecasting and mitigating their impacts. Despite advancements, accurately predicting TC rapid intensification (RI) remains a challenge. Large eddy simulation (LES) allows for explicitly resolving the large eddies involved in TC turbulence, thus providing an avenue for studying the mechanisms behind their intensification and RI. LES of a full tropical cyclone is very computationally expensive and its accuracy will depend on both explicit and implicit dissipation within an atmospheric model. This dissertation presents two novel numerical methodologies with the potential to improve the efficiency …

Coastal Sedimentary Records Of Extreme Events And Human Activity: Examples From Hurricanes And Microplastics, Nicholas T. Culligan

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Coastal regions are uniquely vulnerable to a myriad of natural and anthropogenically caused stresses such as hurricane strikes and chronic microplastic pollution. Both hurricanes and microplastics have major negative effects on global coastlines and are forecast to become more damaging in the future. However, current model trends are based on limited modern data and may not provide an accurate or comprehensive view of the future. Therefore, this dissertation investigates coastal stratigraphic records to determine long-term past trends of these presses and pulses so that researchers, stakeholders, and policy makers can use them to enact strategies to mitigate damages from worsening …

Open-Loop Wavefront Sensing In The Presence Of Speckle And Weak Scintillation, Derek J. Burrell, Mark F. Spencer, Ronald G. Driggers

Faculty Publications

In this paper, we show that speckle averaging helps to reduce the measurement error associated with a Shack–Hartmann wavefront sensor (SHWFS); however, this reduction is rendered ineffective with increasing beacon anisoplanatism. We do so operating in a weak-scintillation regime, where the SHWFS offers robust performance, and using in-plane translation of the illuminated rough surface to accomplish frame-to-frame speckle diversity. Understanding these trade-space limitations is critical when performing wavefront sensing with noncooperative, extended-source beacons.

Sensitivity Of Present And Future Seasonal Precipitation Over Central United States To The Representation Of Rocky Mountain Topography, Ranasinghe Disanayakalage Sherly Shelton Ranathunga

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Precipitation change across the Central United States (USA) is of great interest to the research community. Studies using global climate simulations suggest that the “100^th-Meridian”, which separates the “dry west” from the “moist east” will shift to the east as the climate responds to future emissions pathways. However, these simulations are run at relatively coarse resolutions, which do not accurately represent topography. Here, we perform regional simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to explore the sensitivity of present and future precipitation patterns across the central USA to the representation of the Rocky Mountains (RM). We …

Further Developing Drought Early Warning Information Systems Using Mixed-Methods And Multiple Streams Of Data, Caily Claire Schwartz

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

Drought is a complex phenomenon with varying degrees of impacts and monitoring methods. No drought is alike, creating a challenge for both water managers and communities. No area is immune to a drought. Due to the cyclical nature of drought events, clear information to those impacted is necessary to reduce risk and move towards proactive responses, as opposed to reactive responses. To better provide communication and mitigation tools, Drought Early Warning Information Systems (DEWIS) have been developed in various regions and contexts. To improve early warning, an understanding of the end user’s perceptions of risk, and the applicability of data …

Role Of Planetary Wave-Tide-Gravity Wave Interactions In Whole Atmosphere Coupling, Zishun Qiao

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

This dissertation investigates the mechanism by which the Earth's whole atmosphere couples from the bottom to the top, pole to pole. The work in this dissertation utilizes observational data and numerical simulations, with a particular emphasis on sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. The development of a new multi-static meteor radar at 30ºS, named Chilean Observation Network De MeteOr Radars (CONDOR), provides a key dataset for the present studies. Wind validation of this new radar system is performed across different sites and compared to a co-located sodium lidar. Wave-wave interactions in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) that may be responsible …

Ocean Temperatures Do Not Account For A Record-Setting Winter In The U.S. West, Matthew D. Laplante, Liping Deng, Luthiene Dalanhese, Shih-Yu Wang

Journalism and Communication Faculty Publications

The record-setting winter of 2022–2023 came as an answer to both figurative and literal prayers for political leaders, policy makers, and water managers reliant on snowpacks in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a vital source of water for tens of millions of people across the Western United States. But this “drought-busting” winter was not well-predicted, in part because while interannual patterns of tropical ocean temperatures have a well-known relationship to precipitation patterns across much of the American West, the Upper Colorado is part of a liminal region where these connections tend to be comparatively weak. Using historical sea surface temperature …

Synoptic Drivers Of Extreme Precipitation In The Upper Yuba Watershed Of California, Emma Nichole Russell

Dissertations and Theses

The United States state of California is vulnerable to both droughts and extreme precipitation events due to the timing and processes of precipitation in the region. California's annual precipitation is dependent on a few strong storms and in addition to its Mediterranean climate, leads to great variability in precipitation both within and across years. While efforts to reduce the impacts of extreme precipitation events have been implemented, forecasting for these events remains a challenge in regions with complex terrain and dynamic meteorological drivers. In order to improve forecasting and preparedness for such events, it is important to understand the range …

Fe-Rich X-Ray Amorphous Material Records Past Climate And Persistence Of Water On Mars, Anthony D. Feldman, Elisabeth M. Hausrath, Elizabeth B. Rampe, Valerie Tu, Tanya S. Peretyazhko, Christopher Defelice, Thomas Sharp

Geoscience Faculty Research

X-ray amorphous material comprises 15-73 wt.% of sedimentary rocks and eolian sediments in Gale crater. This material is variably siliceous and iron rich but aluminum poor. The presence of volatiles is consistent with the existence of incipient weathering products. To better understand the implications of this material for past aqueous conditions on Mars, here we investigate X-ray amorphous material formation and longevity within terrestrial iron rich soils with varying ages and environmental conditions using bulk and selective dissolution methods, X-ray diffraction, and transmission electron microscopy. Results indicate that in situ aqueous alteration is required to concentrate iron into clay-size fraction …

Multi-Case Study Of Left-Flank Boundaries Within Supercells, Peyton B. Stevenson

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This study investigates the prevalence and significance of forward-flank convergence boundaries (FFCBs) and left-flank convergence boundaries (LFCBs) in shaping the structure and intensity of supercells, using observational data from various field projects. Unlike previous research focusing on individual cases, this study examines a diverse range of cases to provide comprehensive insights into the relationship between these boundaries and supercell characteristics such as intensity, longevity, and tornadogenesis. By analyzing high-resolution surface data, the research addresses the frequency, location, and intensity of these boundaries, and their impact on pseudo vertical vorticity, pseudo convergence, and density gradients. A total of 228 boundary identifications …

Design And Evaluation Of An Esa-Based Method Of Ensemble Subsetting For A Wofs (Warn On Forecast-Like System), Daniel J. Butler

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Forecasting severe thunderstorm environments in the southeastern United States can be challenging due to mesoscale heterogeneities such as shortwave troughs, pre-existing airmass boundaries, cold fronts aloft, low-level jets, dry air intrusions, and mesoscale lows. To combat these challenges, ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) may be applied to a Warn-on-Forecast (WOF)-like ensemble to improve forecasts of severe convection through ensemble weighting and subsetting. Ensemble-based weighting and subsetting uses ensemble members that most accurately represent the thunderstorm environment in areas of mesoscale heterogeneity. This study creates and evaluates the ensemble-based weighting and subsetting in four cases of severe thunderstorm occurrence. The open parameter …

Spatio-Temporal Analysis Of The Roadside Transportation-Related Air Quality (Startraq 2022): Data-Driven Exposure Analysis By Transportation Modes, Jaymin Kwon, Yushin Ahn, Steve Chung

Mineta Transportation Institute

Particulate matter (PM) pollution poses significant health risks, influenced by various meteorological factors and seasonal variations. This study investigates the impact of temperature and other meteorological variables on PM10 and PM2.5 levels in Fresno County, known for high air pollution. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and generalized additive models (GAMs) assess the significance of these relationships. Analyzing data from Fresno County, we examine PM10 and PM2.5 levels across "hot" (June to August) and "cool" (September to May) seasons. Findings indicate PM10, both MLR and GAM models identify statistically significant variables, excluding temperature and wind direction in each season. However, during the …

Toward Untangling Thunderstorm-Aerosol Relationships: An Observational Study Of Regions Centered On Washington, Dc And Kansas City, Mo, Mace Bentley, Tobias Gerken, Zhoujun Duan, Dudley Bonsal, Henry Way, Endre Szakal, Mia Pham, Hunter Donaldson, Lucie Griffith

School of Integrated Sciences - Faculty Scholarship

A multi-variable investigation of thunderstorm environments in two distinct geographic regions is conducted to assess the aerosol and thermodynamic environments surrounding thunderstorm initiation. 12-years of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash data are used to reconstruct thunderstorms occurring in a 225 km radius centered on the Washington, D·C. and Kansas City Metropolitan Regions. A total of 196,836 and 310,209 thunderstorms were identified for Washington, D.C. and Kansas City, MO, respectively. Hourly meteorological and aerosol data were then merged with the thunderstorm event database.

Evidence suggests, warm season thunderstorm environments in benign synoptic conditions are considerably different in thermodynamics, aerosol properties, and aerosol …