Finance Commons^™

Financial Market Integration In The Greater China Region: A Multivariate Asymmetric Approach, K.Y. Ho, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs pre 2011

This paper examines the volatility dynamics of the greater China stock markets (Shanghai A- and B-shares, Shenzhen A- and B-shares, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) by employing a multivariate (tetravariate) framework that incorporates the features of asymmetries, persistence, and time-varying correlations, which are typically observed in stock markets of developed economies. Our results indicate that, unlike the Shenzhen and Shanghai Ashares, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets, the B-share markets do not exhibit significant asymmetric volatility (“leverage effect”), and return volatility in the A-share market is substantially higher than the B-share market before April 1997, but this result is reversed after that. …

Caviar And The Australian Stock Markets : An Appetiser, David E. Allen, A. K. Singh

Research outputs pre 2011

Value-at-Risk (VaR) has become the universally accepted metric adopted internationally under the Basel Accords for banking industry internal control and for regulatory reporting. This has focused attention on methods of measuring, estimating and forecasting lower tail risk. One promising technique is Quantile Regression which holds the promise of efficiently calculating (VAR). To this end, Engle and Manganelli in (2004) developed their CAViaR model (Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk). In this paper we apply their model to Australian Stock Market indices and a sample of stocks, and test the efficacy of four different specifications of the model in a set of …

Credit Risk And Real Capital : An Examination Of Swiss Banking Sector Default Risk Using Cvar, Robert J. Powell, David E. Allen

Research outputs pre 2011

The global financial crisis (GFC) has placed the creditworthiness of banks under intense scrutiny. In particular, capital adequacy has been called into question. Current capital requirements make no allowance for capital erosion caused by movements in the market value of assets. This paper examines default probabilities of Swiss banks under extreme conditions using structural modeling techniques. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and conditional probability of default (CPD) techniques are used to measure capital erosion. Significant increase in probability of default (PD) is found during the GFC period. The market asset value based approach indicates a much higher PD than external …

China And Brazil: Potential Allies Or Just Brics In The Wall?, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Brazil is an increasingly important actor in global governance and for China specifically. Sino-Brazilian relations have deepened considerably but they remain concentrated in areas of trade and investment. There is also considerable overlap in interests between the two countries in other areas, such as diplomatic and political relations. At the same time, China must manage carefully important differences that exist over the enlargement of the UN and the potential challenge to the Brazilian industry.

Foreign Portfolio Investment Inflows To The United States: The Impact Of Investor Risk Aversion And U.S. Stock Market Performance, Peter V. Egly, David W. Johnk, Daniel Perez Liston

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper examines the relationship of net foreign portfolio investment inflows, namely corporate bonds and stocks, to two pull factors; investor risk aversion and the US stock market. Using a vector autoregressive model, we find that positive shocks to the stock market elicit an insignificant response to the net corporate bond inflow and a significant short term positive response to the net corporate stock inflow. The net corporate stock inflow does not respond to risk aversion, while bond inflows do exhibit a significant midterm response to an increase in risk aversion. Consistent with previous empirical findings, the results show that …

Corporate Power In The Public Eye: Reassessing The Implications Of Berle’S Public Consensus Theory, Marc T. Moore, Antoine Rebérioux

Seattle University Law Review

We analyze Berle’s overall corporate governance project in accordance with what we see as its four core sub-themes: (A) the limitations of external market forces as a constraint on managerial decision-making power; (B) the desirability of internal (corporate) over external (market) actors in allocating corporate capital; (C) civil society and the public consensus as a continuous informal check on managerial decision-making power; and (D) shareholder democracy (as opposed to shareholder primacy or shareholder wealth maximization) as a socially instrumental institution. We seek to debunk the popular misconception that Berle’s early work was a defense of the orthodox shareholder primacy paradigm …

The Impact Of Monetary Policy Announcements On Stock Market: Evidence From China, Yu Zeng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In this paper we examine how stock returns in China respond to monetary policy announcements made by PBC in a short term around announcement day. We employ a nonparametric event-study method to investigate such reactions. We arrive at the following conclusions. Firstly, there is information leakage of monetary policy changes, which is verified by significant changes in stock returns before monetary policy announcement and quitness of stock market after announcement. Secondly, financially constrained and financially unconstrained firms respond quite similarly to monetary policy shocks, which disobeys credit channel of monetary policy transmission in the short run. Thirdly, reserve ratio changes …

Bayesian Analysis Of Country Risk Premia In Developing Small Open Economies, Seigmund Vincent Roque Conti

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis studies a model presented by Neumeyer & Perri (2005), which aims to explain the strong countercyclicality of interest rates and net exports in emerging market economies. The model accomplishes this by decomposing interest rates into an international rate and a country risk component, and by making labor demand sensitive to movements in these rates via a working capital constraint imposed on the representative firm. Moreover, it proposes two approaches to determining the stochastic processes for these interest rates: the independent country risk case and the induced country risk case. The induced country risk model calibrated to Argentine data …

Tracking Berle’S Footsteps: The Trail Of The Modern Corporation’S Last Chapter, William W. Bratton, Michael L. Wachter

Seattle University Law Review

Readers game enough to work through all three hundred pages of The Modern Corporation and Private Property looking for insights on corporate law today encounter two, apparently contradictory, lines of thought. One line, set out in Books II and III, resonates comfortably with today’s shareholder-centered corporate legal theory. Here the book teaches that even as ownership and control have separated, managers should function as trustees for the shareholders and so should exercise their wide-ranging powers for the shareholders’ benefit. The other line of thought emerges in Books I and IV, where The Modern Corporation encases this shareholder trust model in …

Rethinking The Separation Of Ownership From Management In American History, Kenneth Lipartito, Yumiko Morii

Seattle University Law Review

In <em>The Modern Corporation and Private Property</em>, Adolf Berle and Gardiner Means would use AT&T as a prime example of what they saw as a dangerous new trend, the replacement of ownership-based capitalism with giant corporations controlled by a small group of propertyless managers. Indeed, AT&T became Berle and Means’ favorite example. . . . As we shall see, however, the claim that AT&T was a leading example of the separation of ownership from management is incomplete. More importantly, the common interpretation of Berle and Means’ work is mistaken, placing the emphasis incorrectly on the number of shareholders and reading …

Berle’S Vision Beyond Shareholder Interests: Why Investment Bankers Should Have (Some) Personal Liability, Claire Hill, Richard Painter

Seattle University Law Review

This essay, published in a symposium on the work of Adolf Berle, approaches the Berle-Dodd debate from the perspective that corporate managers have responsibilities beyond pursuing the interests of shareholders. Stock based executive compensation, designed to align managers’ interests with those of shareholders, has, in the investment banking industry in particular, failed to avert, and may have caused, managers (in this case, bankers) to take excessive risks that in the present financial crisis inflicted great damage on creditors and on society as a whole. We describe here the broad outlines of a proposal that we will discuss in future publications …

Enumerating Old Themes? Berle’S Concept Of Ownership And The Historical Development Of English Company Law In Context, Lorraine E. Talbot

Seattle University Law Review

This paper offers some tentative suggestions as to why Berle’s work has been read and interpreted so selectively in the United Kingdom. I suggest that this must be partly attributable to the historical developments in English company law that entrenched the notion of shareholder ownership claims. Specifically, unincorporated associations’ normative values—that members are owners and there is no distinction between small organizations with no share dispersal and large organizations with wide share dispersal—have a continuing influence on this entrenched notion of shareholder ownership claims. First, I provide an overview of the origins of English company law. Next, I address how …

An Experimental Analysis Of The Demand For Payday Loans, Bart J. Wilson, David W. Findlay, James W. Meehan Jr., Charissa P. Wellford, Karl Schurter

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

The payday loan industry is one of the fastest growing segments of the consumer financial services market in the United States. We design an environment similar to the one that payday loan customers face and then conduct a laboratory experiment to examine what effect, if any, the existence of payday loans has on individuals' abilities to manage and to survive financial setbacks. Our primary objective is to examine whether access to payday loans improves or worsens the likelihood of financial survival in our experiment. We also test the degree to which people's use of payday loans affects their ability to …

Hyperbolic Systems Modeling Currency Hoarding, Elena Quercioli, Jeffrey Rauch

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We introduce and analyse linear systems of hyperbolic partial differential equations that model the replacement and hoarding of currency. The goal is to deduce the hoarding behavior from observations of circulating bills. The large time asymptotics of the models is identified in all cases. The mathematical analysis is novel, partly because of nonstandard boundary conditions. To identify parameters we suggest the measurement of the age histogram of notes, the rate of growth, and the retard in wear of notes due to hoarding. In our models that suffices to identify all but one quantity.

Risking Returns: Moving From Public To Private Equity, Aurobindo Ghosh

Research Collection School Of Economics

The notion of risk identifies a project that matches with the risk appetite of an entrepreneur not necessarily the investors. This can explain why entrepreneurs would start up companies but it cannot explain why ex-post the investors continue, given that a diversified portfolio of publicly traded assets could potentially generate similar return with lower risk. We re-evaluate the evidence through performance measures using relative probability distributions of public and private equity funds, and identify the nature of the deviations. We observe that the heterogeneity in different investor classes are greatly reduced using standard covariates to identify the choice between public …

Managing Capital Flows: The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

The resurgence of private capital inflows into Asia in recent years has raised the question of whether the region is susceptible to yet another financial crisis. While a sudden large-scale reversal of capital flows is not likely to result in a liquidity crunch or balance of payments crisis, the attendant sharp corrections in asset prices will have an adverse impact on the economy particularly through indirect channels. We present, in this study, Singapore’s experience in managing the risks posed by capital flows as well as the retention of control over exchange rates and monetary conditions. It is the overall package …

Market Structure And Mortgage Pricing: The Role Of Information In Firm And Consumer Behavior, Abdullah A. Al-Bahrani

University of Kentucky Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation analyzes information, market structure, and firm pricing strate-gies. I begin the dissertation with an analysis of the market structure of the mortgage in-dustry. I find that the configuration of the mortgage market at its present state is vastly different than its historical structure. The reduction in the cost of transmitting informa-tion has increased the collaborative environment and facilitated the dis-integration of the supply chain. Generally, the mortgage industry has been successful at reducing principal-agent problems and minimizing asymmetric information concerns that arise in segmented markets.

In the first essay I provide a theoretical explanation of the effect of …

Central Bank Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December, 2009, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year Ended 31st December, 2009 revealed that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.7% YoY, compared to 6.0% in the previous year. This growth was driven by the non-oil sector, with the non-oil GDP growth rate of 8.3%. Within the non-oil sector, the agricultural sub-sector grew by 6.2%, while the whole-sector and retail sectors recorded growth rates of 11.5 and 10.5 per cent, respectively. The robust output recorded during the previous three years was driven by the government's optimism, which reflected in the oil …

A Pitch For Microfinance: Using An Animation To Promote An Economic Movement, Yelena Kozlova

Art and Design

Microfinance refers to the idea of providing financial services to low-income clients. The purpose of this project was to create an animation using Adobe Flash that could be published online to inform the public about microfinance and to encourage the viewers to take part in this movement.

An Empirical Examination Of Firearm Users In Brasilia, Df, Adolfo Sachsida, Andre V. Mollick, Mario Jorge Cardoso De Mendonca

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper relates individuals’ characteristics to the probability of possessing firearms: a) inside the home; b) outside the home; and c) inside and outside the home. Extending the literature on the demand for firearms whose focus is on the first trait, we collected survey data on 2,045 random individuals of Brasília, Brazil, in 2002. The multinominal logit model yields several new results. First, while we do find that a person’s educational level negatively affects the likelihood that an individual will use arms only outside his or her home, education does not affect the probability of an individual possessing a gun …

China’S Exports And The Oil Price, João Ricardo Faria, Andre V. Mollick, Pedro H. Albuquerque, Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the oil price. The model shows that Chinese growth can lead to an increase in oil prices that has a stronger impact on its export competitors. This is due to the large labor force surplus of China. We then examine this hypothesis by estimating a reduced form equation for Chinese exports using Rodrik (2006)’s …

Private Fund Adviser Registration Act Hr-3818, Anita Krug

All Faculty Scholarship

This paper comments on the Obama administration's 2009 proposal for the regulation of hedge fund investment advisers.

Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent dating of their origination and collapse. The tests serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble activity and a new procedure is introduced for testing bubble migration across markets. Three relevant financial series are investigated, including a financial asset price (a house price index), a commodity price (the crude oil price), and one bond price (the spread …

Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date-stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. Some asymptotic properties of the Evans …

Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In A Small Open Economy: A Factor-Augmented Var Analysis For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

The ongoing global financial turmoil has revived the question of whether central bankers ought to tighten monetary policy preemptively in order to head off asset price misalignments before a sudden crash triggers financial instability. This study explores the issue of the appropriate monetary policy response to asset price swings in the small open economy of Singapore. Empirical analysis of monetary policy based on standard VAR models, unfortunately, is often hindered by the use of sparse information sets. To better reflect the extensive information monitored by Singapore’s central bank, including global economic indicators, we augment a monetary VAR model with common …

Foreign Direct Investment And Foreign Portfolio Investment Under Asymmetric Information, Ruanjai Suwantaradon

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a model of international capital flows when there is asymmetric information between foreign investors and domestic managers. Direct investors have a direct influence on the management, thus overcoming agency and information problems. This information advantage, however, comes at the cost of having to acquire management expertise. The tradeoff between management costs and the costs of asymmetric information consequently determines the level and composition of a country’s international capital flows. Analyzing how this tradeoff changes with economic conditions in a country, the model can qualitatively capture the experiences of many crisis countries during the 1990s. Specifically, the model …

The Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Tracing And Evaluating New Patterns Of The Trilemma Configuration, Joshua Aizenman, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper investigates how the trilemma policy mix affects economic performance in developing countries. We find that greater monetary independence can dampen output volatility, while greater exchange rate stability is associated with greater output volatility, which can be mitigated by reserve accumulation; greater monetary autonomy is associated with higher inflation, while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness is linked with lower inflation; pursuit of exchange rate stability can increase output volatility when financial development is at an intermediate stage. Greater financial openness, when accompanied by a high level of financial development, reduces output volatility.

Lessons From Financial Crisis, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

SEPTEMBER 15, 2009 marked one year from the day American financial firm Lehman Brothers collapsed. The subsequent onslaught on the global financial system set in a recession of the magnitude not experienced since 1930.

Financial institutions considered rock solid such as AIG and Citibank came almost on the verge of collapse. The world economy contracted for the first time in decades. But a year later the ‘green shoots’ have started appearing and the consensus view is that the global economy is coming out of the storm.

Economic historians will take many years to fully analyse the causes of the crisis …

Describing The Economic Impact Of The Oil And Gas Industry In Arkansas, Katherine A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman

Publications and Presentations

The Arkansas oil and natural gas industries are increasingly important to the state’s economic vitality. As global demand for energy increases, domestic production is put into the spotlight. This study describes the economic impact of the oil and gas industries in Arkansas, focusing on the sector’s economic output, employment, and tax revenues.

Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new methodology is proposed to estimate theoretical prices of financial contingent claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature, the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but is not necessarily the best method in finite samples. This paper proposes a simulation-based method. When it is used in connection with ML, it can improve the finite-sample performance of the ML estimator while maintaining its good asymptotic properties. The method is implemented and evaluated here in the Black-Scholes option pricing model and in the Vasicek bond and …